The Other Hand

The fabulous US economy Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The first UK budget ever delivered by a female Chancellor was presented with aplomb and panache. A pity the details didn’t match up to the presentation. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Germany is in economic trouble. Its car industry - 7% of the economy - is being squeezed by struggling exports (to China in particular) and a poorly handled transition to EVs.Add in problems that go back decades and maybe its time to become a Eurosceptic again. If Trump wins, the Democrats need to look in mirror. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Loads of men (mostly) say their favourite movie is The Godfather. Plenty also rate the Sopranos as the best TV series ever. Is that because they secretly (and not so secretly these days) would love to have a Mafiosi's unchecked power?Brexit is the most contemporary example of people saying the system doesn't work for them and then replacing it with something far worse. The US appears to be on the verge of making the same mistake.Unchecked power accompanied by extreme wealth turns people mad.The checks and balances built into the US constitution were put there by people who recognised the dark side of human nature. They designed a system with guardrails explicitly put there to protect against someone like Trump rising to power.Trump unchained will be nothing like the Trump of his first reign. There is nobody left, even on the Supreme Court, to hold him back. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

It's easy to conclude that we are a violent species. Just look at the state of the world.In a quite brilliant book, Professor Christopher Blattman argues that history books can give a misleading impression: on most days, war doesn't happen.Blattman has read everything. He has talked to the street gangs of Chicago and drug lords in Colombia. He summarises his vast knowledge with five main reasons why going to war - rathe than making peace - seems to happen. Armed (pardon the pun) with this knowledge, policy makers can get better at peace making.But, he warns, most policies are wrong, or likley to be. Grand, big theories of everything are best avoided. He urges a 'marginal' approach, perhaps best described as 'suck it and see'. Take baby steps and prepare to fail. But keep going. Small steps may mean you won't make big mistakes.It's hard to end wars but they always do. It's the terms that matter. It looks like Putin is going to win in Ukraine.Even more seriously, are China and America stuck in the same trap that drove ancient Sparta and Athens to war? That's the famous Thucydides Trap.A truly fabulous discussion. Our thanks to Shane. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Irish house prices are now well in excess of their pre-financial crisis peaks. Is the only thing that will get them down an old fashioned recession? More supply is certainly needed but it is far from clear that more houses equals lower prices - other things are not equalWhy do we still bang on about a cost of living crisis when inflation has fallen towards zero? If not actually zero. May be the answer is really simple: in the US (and probably elsewhere) food and energy price inflation reached 40% in 2022 - higher even than during the great energy shock of 1973. Europe has more problems than lower interest rates can solveEven if people have more letters after their name than are in their name, they are still capable of saying daft things. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The arguments over the help needed for the domestic economy run and runIs Sinn Fein just a reunification party with a few half-hearted populist policies thrown in to get elected? Neither Chris nor Jim won the economics Nobel Prize.And much more! Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Is the Irish inflation rate too low? All economists bar one or two say that the economy is over-heating. Could the opposite be true? Latest data certainly hints in that direction.Inflation disappoints, ever so slightly, in the US, where interest rate expectations have shifted again. The European interest rate outlook hasn't shifted at all - rates are coming down. Very soon.An important debate is to be had about whether or not pubs, restaurants and hotels need special treatment from the government.China would love some over-heating.Do we want to drive cars that are potentially controlled from Beijing? Or is that just science fiction? Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Is Keir Starmer up to the task? The early evidence suggests not?Are bankers worth it? Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Has the coalition blown it? Or does the outpouring of budget criticism from official Ireland miss the point: it's what the people wanted? Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Will the electorate be grateful for budget 2025?Where was the long-term strategy and/or vision?So little for Irish businesses, particularly indigenous SMEsTax base narrowed againInfrastructure mentioned loads of times with few details, let alone plansNot nearly enough focus on return on invetsmentWill it work? In political terms at least. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As we approach Budget 2025, we reflect on the usual leaked measures and suggest we are just children looking for the keys to the sweet shop. And yet so many of us say we want more houses, better health and high-quality schools. And then we elect politicians with a mandate to do none of those things. Is democracy structurally incapable of delivering much needed change? Or is just a system that delivers blocking coalitions to parliaments everywhere that prevent anything serious from happening? Is democracy now just the culturally and economically complacent ensuring that things stay pretty much the same?All this as the European economy sinks back into sullen economic mediocrity. At least interest rates will fall again in a few weeks and give house prices another much needed boost. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A prominent ex central banker has suggested that Ireland should spend the money: it's time, he says, for 'Jam today'. That's our interpretation, at least, of his only slightly coded remarks.Trumponomics: it's time to take them seriously, if not literally.Another Chinese economic stimulus: bazooka or pea-shooter?Your weekly reminder about the global nature of the housing crisis Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

There is a building slowdown in global manufacturing that is starting to look serious. This is a Chinese problem that is fast becoming a major issue for Germany. That's one explanation for the rise of the right in Germany.The new UK government is beginning to look like a bewildered bunch of not very good middle managers Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The US central bank goes large and delivers a big interest rate cut. Thereby admitting it should have cut sooner.The Irish property market moves into double figure price inflation. And mortgage rates are only going to fall further Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.