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The Pollsters

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Politics. Policy. Polling. Pop Culture.

Explore what America's thinking with two of the country's leading pollsters-the bipartisan team of Democrat Margie Omero and Republican Kristen Soltis Anderson. In this weekly podcast we take a fresh, friendly look at the numbers driving the week's biggest stories in news, politics, tech, entertainment and pop culture. Along with the occasional interview with pollsters, journalists, and other industry leaders, we'll lift the hood on the numbers revealing the hidden secrets of the public's mind.

254 Episodes
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Trump, “racially infused” tweets, and Democratic Candidates Trump Approval (RealClear Politics) Republican support for Trump rises after racially charged tweets (Reuters) 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics) Beto O’Rourke and the Value of Polling Polling is not evil voodoo magic (Kristen Soltis Anderson in the Washington Examiner) Polling Faux Pas Incomplete polling for the Democratic Primary (St. Anselm College) All The Problems With This Anonymous Poll About Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (HuffPo coverage of a poll reported in Axios) More General Election Polling Huge Turnout Is Expected in 2020. So Which Party Would Benefit? (New York Times, “The Upshot”) Trump Faces Tough Challenge From Top Democratic Candidates in Election Matchup (WSJ/NBC News) Immigration Slim majority supports deportation raids (POLITICO/Morning Consult) More on Presidential Tweeting Views of Trump’s Twitter Attack on Four Congresswomen Highly Partisan (Ipsos) State of the Union and Conspiracies (Economist/YouGov) Ladysports Do you think if you were playing your very best tennis, you could win a point off Serena Williams? (YouGov) We Need To Stop Comparing Serena Williams To Men’s Tennis Players (HuffPo) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Squirrely Race

The Squirrely Race

2020-02-2000:45:19

Democratic National Primary Democratic National Primary (FiveThirtyEight) Sanders Opens Up Double-Digit National Lead in Primary Race (NBC News/WSJ) Sanders Leads The Field, Bloomberg Qualifies For His 1st Debate (NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist) Nevada Primary Nevada Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight) Sanders Has Strong Lead in Nevada(Data for Progress) South Carolina Primary South Carolina Democratic Primary(FiveThirtyEight) Americans and the Election Americans Generally Upbeat About Election Campaign (Gallup) Faith in Elections in Relatively Short Supply in U.S. (Gallup) Trump Job Approval Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics) National General Election National General Election(RealClear Politics) Bogus Respondents Assessing the Risks to Online Polls From Bogus Respondents (Pew Research Center) Chucking a Dead Chicken Is Chucking a Dead Chicken a Fun Bar Event or Disrespectful to Animals? (Thorold News) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Don't Eat With Your Hands

Don't Eat With Your Hands

2020-02-1300:36:42

Democratic Primary National Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight) Who's Ahead in New Hampshire (FiveThirtyEight) Sanders Takes Top Spot In Dem Primary As Biden Falls (Quinnipac) New Hampshire Democratic Primary Exit Poll Results and Analysis (Wash Post) Trump Approval  Trump Approval (RealClear Politics) General Election Trump vs. Klobucha (RealClear Politics) Most Expect Trump Will Be Reelected (Monmouth) Socialism and Atheism Still U.S. Political Liabilities (Gallup) Impeachment Vote Most Utahns pleased with Mitt Romney’s vote, but 60% of GOP has negative reaction (Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics) Valentine’s Day Valentine's Day poll: American's claim this dinner idea is most underrated (Instacart) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
On this 5th Anniversary episode, Kristen and Margie are joined by founder of FiveThirtyEight Nate Silver. Nate founded Five Thirty Eight after being tired of the media covering politics with a lack of data. Iowa Primary The three cover the topic of Iowa and how the polls should be looked at along with the actual results in Iowa. Nate breaks down Iowa’s system of using preferences in voting in their primary process and discusses how that makes Iowa difficult to poll. The Des Moines Register, Ann Selzer poll was not published due to an error in polling. However, it was ended up being leaked prior to the Iowa Caucus. Nate believes that human error is a part of anything in life, even polling. In the case of the Ann Selzer poll he believes that the errors in the poll could have been fixed and published at a later date, instead of the chaos that ensued with the errors in the poll due to a tight deadline that was set. Models in Polling A model is a statistical algorithm that produces results. In polling models are statistics that are used to represent the world. Nate discusses the difficulties behind trying to build a model for the entire Democratic Nomination process. He shares that FiveThirtyEight focuses on predicting the outcome and as a result they focus more on topline numbers.  The Silent Trump Vote It has been claimed that silent Trump voters played a role in the 2016 election, Kristen asks Nate if silent or shy Trump voters could play a roll in the upcoming 2020 Presidential election.  Find Nate Silver on Twitter @NateSilver538 Listen to the FiveThirtyEight Podcast Here! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Iowa is the Big Game

Iowa is the Big Game

2020-01-3000:48:19

National Democratic Primary National Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight) 2020 Democratic Primary (Morning Consult) Biden and Sanders are breaking away from the pack of candidates among Democrats nationwide (Washington Post/ABC News) Electability in the Democratic Primary Polls (HuffPost/YouGov) Iowa Primary Iowa Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight) Sanders Seizes Lead in Volatile Iowa Race (New York Times/Siena College) New Hampshire Primary New Hampshire Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight) Sanders, Buttigieg top Democratic field in New Hampshire (NBC News/Marist) California Primary Bernie Sanders grabs lead in California presidential primary (UC Berkeley Institute) Trump Job Approval Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics) Trump Impeachment Americans still divided on Trump’s removal from office (Wash Post/ABC News) General Election: Trump vs Klobuchar (RealClear Politics) Do Americans Support Impeachment? (FiveThirtyEight) Nearly 6 in 10 oppose Trump’s use of executive privilege to muzzle witnesses (Politico) Impeachment Witness Testimony (Quinnipiac) Eating Meat Nearly One in Four in U.S. Have Cut Back on Eating Meat (Gallup) Four in 10 Americans Have Eaten Plant-Based Meats (Gallup) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Democratic Primary Who's Ahead in the National Poll? (FiveThirtyEight) Who's Ahead in Iowa? (FiveThirtyEight) Who's Ahead in New Hampshire? (FiveThirtyEight) Sanders Widens Lead In N.H. (WBUR) Trump Approval Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics) Trump Third Year Sets New Standard for Party Polarization (Gallup) General Election General Election: Trump vs. Klobuchar (RealClear Politics) Trump Impeachment Do Americans Support Impeachment? (FiveThirtyEight) Majority Support Allowing New Impeachment Evidence (Monmouth) By a Narrow Margin, Americans Say Senate Trial Should Result in Trump’s Removal (Pew Research Center) Senator Approval Rankings (Morning Consult) New Maine Polling on Susan Collins and Impeachment (GHY Research Group) Abortion Laws Do state laws on abortion reflect public opinion? (Pew Research Center) Dissatisfaction With U.S. Abortion Laws at New High (Gallup) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Sticky Pickle Question

The Sticky Pickle Question

2020-01-1600:33:001

2020 Democratic Primary Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight) Iowa Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight) Why Warren Needs To Play To Win — And That Includes Beating Sanders (FiveThirtyEight) Who Won The January Democratic Debate? (FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos) Biden holds wide lead among black voters in Democratic presidential race (Washington Post/Ipsos) 2020 General Election National General Election (FiveThirtyEight) Trump trails 2020 Democratic contenders in Michigan (EPIC-MRA of Lansing) Trump Approval/Impeachment Trump Job Approval (RealClearPolitics) Do Americans Support Impeachment? (FiveThirtyEight) Issues That Matter to Voters Several Issues Tie as Most Important in 2020 Election (Gallup) Iran Majority supports Trump’s decision to not strike back against Iran (Politico/Morning Consult) More Americans Disapprove Of Trump's Handling Of Iran Than Approve (NPR/Marist) Majority of U.S. Public Says Trump’s Approach on Iran Has Raised Chances of a Major Conflict (Pew Research Center) The Oscars Which Film Should Win Best Picture? (Hollywood Reporter) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Party Preferences U.S. Party Preferences Steady During Trump Era (Gallup) Democratic Polling for Debate DNC Tells Pollsters to Do More Polls (NewYorkTimes) Democratic Primary Sanders starts 2020 in strong position in Iowa and New Hampshire (CBS News) Biden Is Democrats’ Best Bet to Beat Trump (Morning Consult) Trump Job Approval/Impeachment Trump Job Approval (Real Clear) Do Americans Support Impeachment? (Real Clear) A Majority Of Americans Think The Evidence Supports Trump’s Removal (FiveThirtyEight) Geoff Garin on Hart Poll(Hart Research/Law Works Poll) Iran Can You Locate Iran? Few Voters Can(Morning Consult) What Americans Think About Trump’s Iran Policy (Huff Post/YouGov) Americans increasingly critical of Trump's record on Iran, most expect war (Reuters/Ipsos) Celebrities and Politics When Stars Like Taylor Swift Get Political, Do Voters Listen? (Hollywood Reporter/Morning Consult) #MeToo/Time’s Up Americans Think #MeToo and Time's Up Are Making Progress (CBS) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Polling Trends in Previous Elections In Leaked Memo, Andrew Yang Asks DNC for More Debate Polls (DailyBeast) 2008 Iowa Republican Caucus (RealClear Politics) 2008 Iowa Democratic Caucus(RealClear Politics) 2012 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus (RealClear Politics) 2016 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus(RealClear Politics) 2016 Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (RealClear Politics) 2020 Presidential Election Who’s ahead in the national polls? (FiveThirtyEight) 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics) Trump Impeachment Do Americans Support Impeachment? (FiveThirtyEight) Most Admired Man Obama, Trump Tie as Most Admired Man in 2019 (Gallup) Fun Charts of 2019 Our favorite Pew Research Center data visualizations of 2019 (Pew Research) The 56 Best — And Weirdest — Charts We Made In 2019 (FiveThirtyEight) What Black Americans Want A Nuanced Picture of What Black Americans Want in 2020 (Third Way/JCPES) New Year, New You Top 10 New Year’s Resolutions for 2020 (Polly/Advanced Symbolics Inc.) Almost Half of People Stick to a New Year’s Resolution (Ipsos) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
It's A Flat Line

It's A Flat Line

2019-12-1900:47:46

Democratic Primary What Makes Our New 2020 Democratic Primary Polling Averages Different (FiveThirtyEight) Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight) Biden and Sanders holding steady (RealClear Politics) Trump Approval/Impeachment President Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics) Tracking “impeach and remove” (FiveThirtyEight) Trump job approval ticks up, views on impeachment steady (Fox News) Peace at Thanksgiving Only About 3% Of Americans Actually Fought About Politics On Thanksgiving (HuffPost/YouGov) Dumbest Takes on Polling Why public opinion polls don’t include the same number of Republicans and Democrats(PewResearch) The Twilight of Landline Interviewing (PewResearch) Year in Review Bullock Misses First Debate (New York Times) Republicans Generation Gap (New York Times) Analytics Jumpstart (Echelon) Holiday Shopping 2019 Winter Holiday Trends (NRF) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Democratic Primary Biden and Sanders holding steady (RealClear Politics) Second Choice Candidates (Quinnipiac) Trump Approval / Impeachment Tracking “impeach and remove” (FiveThirtyEight) Tracking Trump Approval (RealClearPolitics) Who was the better President? Democrats answer! (Monmouth) Trust in the media Republicans less likely to trust the news media (Pew Research) UK Elections Love, Actually? Current predictions (YouGov) Travel What do people steal from hotels? (Wellness Heaven) Unacceptable Airplane Behavior (YouGov) Christmas Trees Real versus Artificial (YouGov) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2020 Presidental Election Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics) General Election Matchups (RealClear Politics) Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (RealClear Politics) The State of the Democratic Primary (Morning Consult) The Economist/You Gov Poll California Voters Wanted Kamala Harris to Drop Out of Presidential Race (Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies for The Times) Impeachment Trump Approval (RealClear Politics) Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump? (FiveThirtyEight) UK Election Europe Poll of Polls (Politico) The key findings from our MRP (YouGov) Poll Reveals Record-Breaking 30 Percent of Public Plan to Vote ‘tactically’ in General Election (ERS) Giving Tuesday Giving Tuesday poll: The causes Americans support (Axios) ‘All I Want For Christmas’ tops most annoying song poll, still tops Billboard’s Holiday 100 (Huawei) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2020 Presidental Election Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics) General Election Matchups (RealClear Politics) Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (RealClear Politics) CBS News Battleground Tracker (CBS News) Impeachment Trump Approval (RealClear Politics) Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump? (FiveThirtyEight) Impeachment Hearings (ABC/Ipsos) Multi-Party Democracy What if the U.S. Were a Multi-Party Democracy? (Echelon) British Election General Election 2019: The polling average might show a Labour surge, but the polls themselves don't (iPolitics) Have you decided yet? Who will win the debate? (Lord Ashcroft) Medicare For All Blue Wall Voices Project (KFF/Cook) Majority of likely Democratic caucusgoers shy away from 'Medicare for All' (Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll) Thanksgiving More than 165 million people expected to shop over five-day Thanksgiving weekend (NRF/Prosper Insights & Analytics) Turkey Day Exposé: How Americans Really Feel About the Big Dinner (Instacart/Harris Poll) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Bloomberg for President?

Bloomberg for President?

2019-11-1400:52:14

2020 Presidental Election Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics) General Election Matchups (RealClear Politics) Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (RealClear Politics) Poll: Bloomberg's Potential Run is a Flop With Voters so Far (Politico/Morning Consult) Biden Holds Slight Lead In New Hampshire Dem Primary (Quinnipiac) Impeachment Trump Approval (RealClear Politics) Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump? (FiveThirtyEight) Framing the Next Step on Impeachment (Navigator) Immigration/Supreme Court Immigration/Border Security (Monmouth) Immigration (CNN/SSRS) Poll Finds Confidence in U.S. Supreme Court Overall, Though More Pronounced Among Conservatives  (Marquette) Veterans Go Beyond the ‘Thank You’ (Cohen Veterans Network) The American Veteran Experience and the Post-9/11 Generation (Pew) New Poll of U.S. Troops and Veterans Reveals Their Thoughts on Current Military Policies (Smithsonian/Stars & Stripes) Anxiety Over the Holidays The worst thing to talk about during the holidays is not politics (YouGov) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Fishy Attraction

Fishy Attraction

2019-11-0700:43:34

2020 Presidential Election Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics) General Election Matchups (RealClear Politics) One Year From Election, Trump Trails Biden but Leads Warren in Battlegrounds (The New York Times Upshot/Siena College) Poll: Biden Holds Significant Lead over Warren, Sanders in Nevada; Top Issue is Electing Someone Who Can Beat Trump (The Nevada Independent) Kentucky Governor - Bevin vs. Beshear (RealClear Politics) Trump Approval (RealClear Politics) Impeachment Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump? (FiveThirtyEight) Partisan Opinion on Trump Digs in (Monmouth University Poll) Trump Approval (Washington Post/ABC Poll) Fish Pictures Love at First Bite? (Fishbrain) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Red Dress for the Win

Red Dress for the Win

2019-10-3100:47:31

2020 Presidential Election Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics) General Election Matchups (RealClear Politics) Trump Approval (RealClear Politics) Impeachment Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump? (FiveThirtyEight) Partisans Dig In On Impeachment, but Majority of Americans Say Trump Administration Should Cooperate With Inquiry (CBS News) Worst Impeachment Questions (Mclaughlin & Associates) Trump Approval Foreign Policy Trump Approval Foreign Policy (RealClear Politics) Foreign Policy Approval(Navigator) Support for Impeaching Trump Soars Among Independents (Reuters/Ipsos) Syria (CNN/SSRS) Job Approval Dips, Unfavorable Feelings Climb for President Trump (Grinnell) Baseball Is It True Fandom Or Just Rude To Stand During The Entire World Series Game At Nats Park? (DCist) Halloween Social Media Influencing Near-Record Halloween Spending (NRF/Propser Insights & Analytics) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2020 Presidential Election Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics) General Election Matchups (RealClear Politics) Biden's lead in Democratic primary hits widest margin since April (CNN) Iowa Caucus (RealClear Politics) Trump and Impeachment Trump Approval (RealClear Politics) Increased Support For Trump Impeachment in Wisconsin (Marquette University Law School) Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump? (FiveThirtyEight) Impeachment Views in 6 Swing States (The Upshot) Issue of the Week: Religion and Polarization Widening Partisan Polarization and Key Issues in 2020 Presidential Elections (PRRI) In U.S., Decline of Christianity Continues at Rapid Pace (Pew Research) Groundbreaking Pew Research Study Finds Pews Are Uncomfortable (The Babylon Bee; satire) Millennials Majority of Americans Say Parents Are Doing Too Much for Their Young Adult Children (Pew Research) More work, more sleep: New study offers glimpse of daily life as a millennial (Washington Post) Twitter Small Share of U.S. Adults Produce Majority of Tweets (Pew Research) Team Meghan! (YouGov) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Baseball Makes D.C. Normal

Baseball Makes D.C. Normal

2019-10-1700:40:12

2020 Presidential Election Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics) General Election Matchups (RealClear Politics) Trump Approval (RealClear Politics) Who Won The Fourth Democratic Debate? (FiveThirtyEight / Ipsos) Impeachment Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump? (FiveThirtyEight) How To Talk About Impeachment (Navigator) Issue of the Week: Unskew the Polls Fox News Pollster Misrepresented Impeachment Poll (Fox News) Democrats Hold Edge in U.S. Party Affiliation in 3rd Quarter (Gallup) Everyone Hates Everyone Partisan Antipathy: More Intense, More Personal (Pew Research Center) Americans Feel Divided On Core Values (Monmouth University Poll) Syria Most Americans Do Not Approve of Trump's Move in Syria (YouGov) Nat's Baseball Isn't Boring Washington Nationals Fan Confidence Up Heading into NL Wild Card Game (SB Nation FanPulse) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2020 Presidential Election Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics) General Election Matchups (RealClear Politics) Trump Approval (RealClear Politics) Bullock the only Dem to beat Trump in MT (U. of Montana) Impeachment Impeachment Tracker (FiveThirtyEight) Voters Remain Divided On Impeachment (Quinnipiac) Public views Ukraine charges as serious, but half say Trump shouldn't be removed (NBC News / The Wall Street Journal) Majority of Americans say they endorse opening of House impeachment inquiry of Trump (Washington Post / Schar School) House Republicans show no signs of abandoning Trump on impeachment (Public Opinion Strategies for NRCC) Issue of the Week: Socialism, Capitalism and Government Behind Americans’ Views of ‘Socialism’ and ‘Capitalism’ (Pew Research) Public Expresses Favorable Views of a Number of Federal Agencies (Pew Research) Vegetables! Quarter Of Americans Have Never Eaten Vegetables (StudyFinds.org) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2020 Presidential Campaigns Great Society on Broadway, the poll 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics) Monmouth Poll numbers Twitter South Carolina Democratic voters strongly support Joe Biden (Winthrop University) Trump approval (RealClear Politics) Issue of the Week: Impeachment (again) Do Americans Support Impeaching President Trump? (FiveThirtyEight, tracker) Impeachment Support Up Slightly (Monmouth University) Support for impeaching Trump rises among independents and Republicans (SSRS for CNN) Support For Impeachment Grows (Quinnipiac) Public Support For Impeachment Grows (HuffPost/YouGov) Majority of Americans and Democrats approve of Trump impeachment inquiry (CBS) NPR/PBS/Marist Support for impeachment jumps in new poll (Morning Consult / Politico) Candy Land! Favorite Movie Candy Tweet (Lights, Camera Pod) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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