The Pollsters

Margie and Kristen return after a four-year hiatus! In this one-off episode, The Pollsters catch listeners up on their lives and review the performance of polls leading up to the 2024 Presidential Election. Did pollsters get it right? Or wrong? Or somewhere in-between?Listen to find out!

Trump, “racially infused” tweets, and Democratic CandidatesTrump Approval (RealClear Politics)Republican support for Trump rises after racially charged tweets (Reuters)2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics)Beto O’Rourke and the Value of PollingPolling is not evil voodoo magic (Kristen Soltis Anderson in the Washington Examiner)Polling Faux PasIncomplete polling for the Democratic Primary (St. Anselm College)All The Problems With This Anonymous Poll About Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (HuffPo coverage of a poll reported in Axios)More General Election PollingHuge Turnout Is Expected in 2020. So Which Party Would Benefit? (New York Times, “The Upshot”)Trump Faces Tough Challenge From Top Democratic Candidates in Election Matchup (WSJ/NBC News)ImmigrationSlim majority supports deportation raids (POLITICO/Morning Consult)More on Presidential TweetingViews of Trump’s Twitter Attack on Four Congresswomen Highly Partisan (Ipsos)State of the Union and Conspiracies (Economist/YouGov)LadysportsDo you think if you were playing your very best tennis, you could win a point off Serena Williams? (YouGov)We Need To Stop Comparing Serena Williams To Men’s Tennis Players (HuffPo)Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Large Voter TurnoutVoter Turnout Appears Steady; Enthusiasm Running High (Gallup)Who Will Win?Who Do Voters Think Will Win (Navigator)Cookie PollThree Brothers Bakery Presidential Cookie Poll Has Accurately Predicted Winner of Last 3 Elections (KHOU)Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Trump Job ApprovalTrump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)General ElectionPresidential General Election (RealClear Politics)CoronavirusCoronavirus Upends Nation, as Three in Four Americans' Lives Changed by Pandemic (ABC News/Ipsos)Governors Get High Marks For Handling COVID-19 Crisis (Monmouth)Tracking Public Opinion on the Coronavirus (Morning Consult)Public Opinion on Coronavirus (Navigator)Axios-Ipsos Coronavirus Index: Everything's Worse (Axios/Ipsos)If you are interested in learning about starting your own podcast, or you have a podcast and want to improve production, distribution, or marketing, contact Richard Fawal at Junto Media, https://juntomedia.co.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Florida Democratic PrimaryWho Different Groups Supported (New York Times)National Democratic PrimaryNational Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)Trump Job ApprovalTrump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)General ElectionGeneral Election (RealClear Politics)CoronavirusTrump Earns Mixed Grades on Coronavirus Response (Politico/Morning Consult)Coronavirus (NPR/PBS/Marist)Coronavirus (Reutors/Ipsos)Public Trusts Health Agencies More Than Trump (Axios)Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Democratic PrimaryFlorida Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)National Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)Biden Crushes Sanders In Democratic Race (Quinnipiac)Trump Job ApprovalTrump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)General ElectionGeneral Election (RealClear Politics)Approval of U.S. Congressional Republicans Tops Democrats (Gallup)CoronavirusTrump and the Coronavirus (CNN)Americans Divided on Party Lines Over Risk From Coronavirus (Reuters/Ipsos)Republicans are Twice as Likely as Democrats to View Coronavirus Coverage as Exaggerated (Axios/Survey Monkey)About One-Fifth of Democrats and Republicans get Political News in a Kind of Media Bubble (Pew Research Center)92% of Americans Dating as Normal Despite Coronavirus (OKcupid)Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Democratic PrimaryNational Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)Florida Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)Michigan Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)Trump ApprovalTrump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)General ElectionGeneral Election (RealClear Politics)Corona Beer and the CoronavirusThe Spread of the Coronavirus Couldn't Have Come at a Worse Time for Corona Beer(CNN)Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Democratic National PrimaryDemocratic National Primary (FiveThirtyEight)South Carolina Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)Debate Watchers Believe Bernie Sanders Made the Best Case for Defeating Trump (YouGov)Trump Job ApprovalTrump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)General ElectionGeneral Election (RealClear Politics)Republicans Increasingly Feel Like They’re ‘Winning’ Politically; Democrats Feel the Opposite (Pew Research Center)CornoavirusHow do Attitudes to Coronavirus Differ Across the World? (YouGov)High Confidence in Government to Handle Coronavirus (Gallup)Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Democratic National PrimaryDemocratic National Primary (FiveThirtyEight)Sanders Opens Up Double-Digit National Lead in Primary Race (NBC News/WSJ)Sanders Leads The Field, Bloomberg Qualifies For His 1st Debate (NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist)Nevada PrimaryNevada Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)Sanders Has Strong Lead in Nevada(Data for Progress)South Carolina PrimarySouth Carolina Democratic Primary(FiveThirtyEight)Americans and the ElectionAmericans Generally Upbeat About Election Campaign (Gallup)Faith in Elections in Relatively Short Supply in U.S. (Gallup)Trump Job ApprovalTrump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)National General ElectionNational General Election(RealClear Politics)Bogus RespondentsAssessing the Risks to Online Polls From Bogus Respondents (Pew Research Center)Chucking a Dead ChickenIs Chucking a Dead Chicken a Fun Bar Event or Disrespectful to Animals? (Thorold News)Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Democratic PrimaryNational Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)Who's Ahead in New Hampshire (FiveThirtyEight)Sanders Takes Top Spot In Dem Primary As Biden Falls (Quinnipac)New Hampshire Democratic Primary Exit Poll Results and Analysis (Wash Post)Trump Approval Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)General ElectionTrump vs. Klobucha (RealClear Politics)Most Expect Trump Will Be Reelected (Monmouth)Socialism and Atheism Still U.S. Political Liabilities (Gallup)Impeachment VoteMost Utahns pleased with Mitt Romney’s vote, but 60% of GOP has negative reaction (Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics)Valentine’s DayValentine's Day poll: American's claim this dinner idea is most underrated (Instacart)Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On this 5th Anniversary episode, Kristen and Margie are joined by founder of FiveThirtyEight Nate Silver. Nate founded Five Thirty Eight after being tired of the media covering politics with a lack of data.Iowa PrimaryThe three cover the topic of Iowa and how the polls should be looked at along with the actual results in Iowa. Nate breaks down Iowa’s system of using preferences in voting in their primary process and discusses how that makes Iowa difficult to poll.The Des Moines Register, Ann Selzer poll was not published due to an error in polling. However, it was ended up being leaked prior to the Iowa Caucus. Nate believes that human error is a part of anything in life, even polling. In the case of the Ann Selzer poll he believes that the errors in the poll could have been fixed and published at a later date, instead of the chaos that ensued with the errors in the poll due to a tight deadline that was set.Models in PollingA model is a statistical algorithm that produces results. In polling models are statistics that are used to represent the world. Nate discusses the difficulties behind trying to build a model for the entire Democratic Nomination process. He shares that FiveThirtyEight focuses on predicting the outcome and as a result they focus more on topline numbers. The Silent Trump VoteIt has been claimed that silent Trump voters played a role in the 2016 election, Kristen asks Nate if silent or shy Trump voters could play a roll in the upcoming 2020 Presidential election. Find Nate Silver on Twitter @NateSilver538Listen to the FiveThirtyEight Podcast Here!Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

National Democratic PrimaryNational Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)2020 Democratic Primary (Morning Consult)Biden and Sanders are breaking away from the pack of candidates among Democrats nationwide (Washington Post/ABC News)Electability in the Democratic Primary Polls (HuffPost/YouGov)Iowa PrimaryIowa Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)Sanders Seizes Lead in Volatile Iowa Race (New York Times/Siena College)New Hampshire PrimaryNew Hampshire Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)Sanders, Buttigieg top Democratic field in New Hampshire (NBC News/Marist)California PrimaryBernie Sanders grabs lead in California presidential primary (UC Berkeley Institute)Trump Job ApprovalTrump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)Trump ImpeachmentAmericans still divided on Trump’s removal from office (Wash Post/ABC News)General Election: Trump vs Klobuchar (RealClear Politics)Do Americans Support Impeachment? (FiveThirtyEight)Nearly 6 in 10 oppose Trump’s use of executive privilege to muzzle witnesses (Politico)Impeachment Witness Testimony (Quinnipiac)Eating MeatNearly One in Four in U.S. Have Cut Back on Eating Meat (Gallup)Four in 10 Americans Have Eaten Plant-Based Meats (Gallup)Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Democratic PrimaryWho's Ahead in the National Poll? (FiveThirtyEight)Who's Ahead in Iowa? (FiveThirtyEight)Who's Ahead in New Hampshire? (FiveThirtyEight)Sanders Widens Lead In N.H. (WBUR)Trump ApprovalTrump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)Trump Third Year Sets New Standard for Party Polarization (Gallup)General ElectionGeneral Election: Trump vs. Klobuchar (RealClear Politics)Trump ImpeachmentDo Americans Support Impeachment? (FiveThirtyEight)Majority Support Allowing New Impeachment Evidence (Monmouth)By a Narrow Margin, Americans Say Senate Trial Should Result in Trump’s Removal (Pew Research Center)Senator Approval Rankings (Morning Consult)New Maine Polling on Susan Collins and Impeachment (GHY Research Group)Abortion LawsDo state laws on abortion reflect public opinion? (Pew Research Center)Dissatisfaction With U.S. Abortion Laws at New High (Gallup)Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

2020 Democratic PrimaryDemocratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)Iowa Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)Why Warren Needs To Play To Win — And That Includes Beating Sanders (FiveThirtyEight)Who Won The January Democratic Debate? (FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos)Biden holds wide lead among black voters in Democratic presidential race (Washington Post/Ipsos)2020 General ElectionNational General Election (FiveThirtyEight)Trump trails 2020 Democratic contenders in Michigan (EPIC-MRA of Lansing)Trump Approval/ImpeachmentTrump Job Approval (RealClearPolitics)Do Americans Support Impeachment? (FiveThirtyEight)Issues That Matter to VotersSeveral Issues Tie as Most Important in 2020 Election (Gallup)IranMajority supports Trump’s decision to not strike back against Iran (Politico/Morning Consult)More Americans Disapprove Of Trump's Handling Of Iran Than Approve (NPR/Marist)Majority of U.S. Public Says Trump’s Approach on Iran Has Raised Chances of a Major Conflict (Pew Research Center)The OscarsWhich Film Should Win Best Picture? (Hollywood Reporter)Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Party PreferencesU.S. Party Preferences Steady During Trump Era (Gallup)Democratic Polling for DebateDNC Tells Pollsters to Do More Polls (NewYorkTimes)Democratic PrimarySanders starts 2020 in strong position in Iowa and New Hampshire (CBS News)Biden Is Democrats’ Best Bet to Beat Trump (Morning Consult)Trump Job Approval/ImpeachmentTrump Job Approval (Real Clear)Do Americans Support Impeachment? (Real Clear)A Majority Of Americans Think The Evidence Supports Trump’s Removal (FiveThirtyEight)Geoff Garin on Hart Poll(Hart Research/Law Works Poll)IranCan You Locate Iran? Few Voters Can(Morning Consult)What Americans Think About Trump’s Iran Policy (Huff Post/YouGov)Americans increasingly critical of Trump's record on Iran, most expect war (Reuters/Ipsos)Celebrities and PoliticsWhen Stars Like Taylor Swift Get Political, Do Voters Listen? (Hollywood Reporter/Morning Consult)#MeToo/Time’s UpAmericans Think #MeToo and Time's Up Are Making Progress (CBS)Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Polling Trends in Previous ElectionsIn Leaked Memo, Andrew Yang Asks DNC for More Debate Polls (DailyBeast)2008 Iowa Republican Caucus (RealClear Politics)2008 Iowa Democratic Caucus(RealClear Politics)2012 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus (RealClear Politics)2016 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus(RealClear Politics)2016 Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (RealClear Politics)2020 Presidential ElectionWho’s ahead in the national polls? (FiveThirtyEight)2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics)Trump ImpeachmentDo Americans Support Impeachment? (FiveThirtyEight)Most Admired ManObama, Trump Tie as Most Admired Man in 2019 (Gallup)Fun Charts of 2019Our favorite Pew Research Center data visualizations of 2019 (Pew Research)The 56 Best — And Weirdest — Charts We Made In 2019 (FiveThirtyEight)What Black Americans WantA Nuanced Picture of What Black Americans Want in 2020 (Third Way/JCPES)New Year, New YouTop 10 New Year’s Resolutions for 2020 (Polly/Advanced Symbolics Inc.)Almost Half of People Stick to a New Year’s Resolution (Ipsos)Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Democratic PrimaryWhat Makes Our New 2020 Democratic Primary Polling Averages Different (FiveThirtyEight)Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)Biden and Sanders holding steady (RealClear Politics)Trump Approval/ImpeachmentPresident Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)Tracking “impeach and remove” (FiveThirtyEight)Trump job approval ticks up, views on impeachment steady (Fox News)Peace at ThanksgivingOnly About 3% Of Americans Actually Fought About Politics On Thanksgiving (HuffPost/YouGov)Dumbest Takes on PollingWhy public opinion polls don’t include the same number of Republicans and Democrats(PewResearch)The Twilight of Landline Interviewing (PewResearch)Year in ReviewBullock Misses First Debate (New York Times)Republicans Generation Gap (New York Times)Analytics Jumpstart (Echelon)Holiday Shopping2019 Winter Holiday Trends (NRF)Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Democratic PrimaryBiden and Sanders holding steady (RealClear Politics)Second Choice Candidates (Quinnipiac)Trump Approval / ImpeachmentTracking “impeach and remove” (FiveThirtyEight)Tracking Trump Approval (RealClearPolitics)Who was the better President?Democrats answer! (Monmouth)Trust in the mediaRepublicans less likely to trust the news media (Pew Research)UK ElectionsLove, Actually?Current predictions (YouGov)TravelWhat do people steal from hotels? (Wellness Heaven)Unacceptable Airplane Behavior (YouGov)Christmas TreesReal versus Artificial (YouGov)Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

2020 Presidental ElectionDemocratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics)General Election Matchups (RealClear Politics)Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (RealClear Politics)The State of the Democratic Primary (Morning Consult)The Economist/You Gov PollCalifornia Voters Wanted Kamala Harris to Drop Out of Presidential Race (Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies for The Times)ImpeachmentTrump Approval (RealClear Politics)Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump? (FiveThirtyEight)UK ElectionEurope Poll of Polls (Politico)The key findings from our MRP (YouGov)Poll Reveals Record-Breaking 30 Percent of Public Plan to Vote ‘tactically’ in General Election (ERS)Giving TuesdayGiving Tuesday poll: The causes Americans support (Axios)‘All I Want For Christmas’ tops most annoying song poll, still tops Billboard’s Holiday 100 (Huawei)Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

2020 Presidental ElectionDemocratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics)General Election Matchups (RealClear Politics)Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (RealClear Politics)CBS News Battleground Tracker (CBS News)ImpeachmentTrump Approval (RealClear Politics)Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump? (FiveThirtyEight)Impeachment Hearings (ABC/Ipsos)Multi-Party DemocracyWhat if the U.S. Were a Multi-Party Democracy? (Echelon)British ElectionGeneral Election 2019: The polling average might show a Labour surge, but the polls themselves don't (iPolitics)Have you decided yet? Who will win the debate? (Lord Ashcroft)Medicare For AllBlue Wall Voices Project (KFF/Cook)Majority of likely Democratic caucusgoers shy away from 'Medicare for All' (Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll)ThanksgivingMore than 165 million people expected to shop over five-day Thanksgiving weekend (NRF/Prosper Insights & Analytics)Turkey Day Exposé: How Americans Really Feel About the Big Dinner (Instacart/Harris Poll)Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices