The Rent Roll with Jay Parsons

Rental housing economist Jay Parsons shares the latest on U.S. apartment market conditions — including a surprisingly massive volume of demand hitting the market in 2024. How did demand match up to the 50-year high in apartment supply delivered in 2024? Jay also unveils which markets saw the biggest gaps — positive and negative — for demand relative to supply, as well as the latest data on occupancy, rents, apartment sales and more. Jay also brings in his old boss, IPA's Director of Research Greg Willett, for a conversation on the state of the U.S. apartment market and outlook for 2025. What markets are outperforming expectations and well positioned going forward? When will apartment sales finally pick back up? And what impact does the stalled-out homebuyer market have on apartments? Additionally, Jay brings back recurring segments of the podcast, including "Rental Housing Trivia" and "In the News."

Rental housing economist Jay Parsons brings out the (fuzzy) crystal ball to lay out predictions for the multifamily and single-family rental markets in 2025. What will become of that wall of maturities? When will the massive wave of apartment supply lease up and trigger a rent rebound? How will the sluggish for-sale housing market impact single-family rentals? After opining on the key trends, Jay then welcomes in Justin Wheeler, the CEO of Berkadia -- one of the biggest players in U.S. multifamily capital markets. Justin shares his predictions on deal flow, cap rates, distress, debt and fundamentals from his front-row seat in the market. And as always, Jay offers up his take on recent headlines related to apartments and SFR, as well as Rental Housing Trivia.

It's end-of-year report card time! Rental housing economist Jay Parsons looks back at predictions he made a year ago on how the apartment and SFR markets would unfold in 2024. What did he get right and wrong? Jay explains two big misses — and what happened that disrupted those predictions. And Jay pats himself on the back for nailing a handful of other predictions — including demand-side expectations and moderating SFR rent growth. Additionally, Jay reviews headlines of the week on rental housing, including controversial headlines around the growing build-to-rent industry and some early news of HUD Secretary nominee Scott Turner's potential priorities. Jay also addresses an audience question around how to talk with family and friends about how rent control exacerbates affordability challenges and why new housing construction (even "luxury"!) help improve affordability at the lower ends of the market.

Rental housing economist Jay Parsons dives into the emerging synergies between multifamily and single-family rentals — two sectors that have historically operated quite separately. The two worlds are gradually merging into one, starting with the hybrid build-to-rent market but now starting to extend into broader operational management practices, as well. One leader in this early movement in Fred Tuomi, Jay's guest in this episode. With uniquely deep experiences in both multifamily (with Equity Residential) and single-family rentals (Invitation Homes, among others), Fred played key roles in the maturation of both sectors into institutional asset classes over the last few decades. He's taken a new challenge with Pretium, an owner of both SFR and apartments, as vice chairman of real estate. Fred shares stories of how apartments and SFR matured into institutional asset classes despite headwinds along the way, and how the merging of multifamily and SFR is the next chapter in the rental housing story. Fred also shares some of his favorite memories working under the late, great Sam Zell at EQR. Additionally, as usual, Jay breaks down some of the latest headlines on rental housing (including news on more mall conversions to include apartments), offers up charts to bust common SFR myths and tees up another round of Rental Housing Trivia.

Would you rather bet on rental housing in Texas or in Southern California? Rental housing economist Jay Parsons breaks down the differences — and similarities — and shares why haters of both regions are mostly wrong. He then brings in "Dr. Doom," aka Waterford co-founder John Drachman, who shares his experiences building out a multifamily platform split between SoCal and Texas ... and why both markets can work well, albeit for different reasons. Jay and John also trade notes on their experiences growing their social media presence, and how LinkedIn in particular has opened up new doors and relationships. Additionally, Jay brings back recurring segments like "Rental Housing Trivia" and "Good Question." And during the "In the News" segment, Jay shares his experiences working with HUD Secretary nominee Scott Turner, and why he's a great fit for the role. ========================= 0:00 - Intro 1:20 - Market data 12:05 - Rental housing trivia 12:40 - In the news 18:17 - Good question 21:00 - John Drachman intro 26:25 - Multifamily  29:50 - Texas or SoCal? 39:15 - Operational challenges  20:20 - Workforce opportunities  46:10 - Social media 51:56 - Outro

Rental housing economist Jay Parsons walks through today's institutional buy box for affordable and workforce housing with FCP's head of impact investing, Alecia Hill. Jay also shares data on the supply shortages impacting all types of rental housing, but especially at the more affordable price points. Jay also breaks down the looming challenges tied to expiring affordable housing tax credits plus aging naturally affordable housing -- and why the solutions aren't as simple as headlines suggest. ====================== 0:00 - Intro 0:42 - Market Data 4:53 - Rental housing trivia  5:22 - In the news 9:26 - Good question 12:09 - Rental housing trivia 14:12 - Alecia Hill intro 15:20 - Journey into real estate 19:44 - Current market 25:05 - Profits vs supply 30:23 - Preserving affordability 37:53 - Housing policy suggestions 41:43 - Biggest misconception 47:05 - Outro

Rental housing economist Jay Parsons caps off earnings call season by sharing five big takeaways on the apartment REITs' Q3 2024 earnings calls, and then welcoming in the former CEO of Centerspace REIT, Mark Decker, for a conversation on multifamily REITs and the industry at large. Additionally, Jay brings back recurring segments like "In the News" (reviewing headlines of the new impacting rental housing), "Good Question" (responding to questions on the rental housing market), "New Digs" (highlighting a recent build-to-rent project in this week's episode) and teeing up "Rental Housing Trivia." Mark Decker joins for the second half of the episode, where Jay and Mark talk about the joys and tribulations of being public versus private, address common myths and hurdles around apartment REITs and tackle questions around apartment valuations and opportunities. ======================== 0:00 - Intro 1:15 - Market data 10:52 - Rental housing trivia 11:25 - In the news 17:29 - New digs 18:20 - Good question 18:59 - Rental housing trivia answer 19:32 - Mark Decker intro 20:12 - Real estate journey  25:12- Apartment REITs stock prices  28:21 - Common misunderstandings 36:24 - Different regions of REIT markets 38:35 - Transition to Proterra 42:27 - Market outlook 45:41 - Public vs. private  49:08 - Outro

Rental housing economist Jay Parsons breaks down the five key takeaways from the single-family rental REITs' third quarter earnings calls, and then welcomes in Invitation Homes CEO Dallas Tanner for a conversation on the evolution of SFR. Jay talks about what impact recent hurricanes had on the SFR companies, and how they're continuing to pivot away from buying individual homes and toward building new build-for-rent homes. He'll also talk about how new supply competition isn't just a multifamily phenomenon. Jay reviews recent headlines on rental housing -- including more on the potential impact of reduced apartment starts. Jay also brings back recurring segments like "Complaints Department" — dealing with a common myth around homeownership — and "Rental Housing Trivia." Later in the program, Jay asks Dallas about what he saw that others did not in the early days of SFR. Jay and Dallas talk about the evolution of institutional SFR, with public perception of the business shifting from rescuers to boogeymen. And Jay asks Dallas about the future of institutional SFR, and whether this shift toward build-to-rent is a point-in-time strategy or a permanent shift. ====================== 0:00 - Intro 1:26 - Market data 10:10 - Rental housing trivia  10:46 - In the news 19:36 - New digs 20:54 - Good question 23:17 - Complaints department 24:58 - Rental housing trivia answer  25:27 - Dallas Tanner intro 26:35 - What did Dallas see in SFR? 29:45 - Scaling  31:26 - Regulation and finding solutions 36:51 - Who are SRF renters?  40:00 - Customer trends and strategy  44:32 - Home ownership 53:40 - Outro 

Election results are in, and rental housing economist Jay Parsons talks about how President Trump's win could impact rental housing — as well as reviewing California voters' decisive takedown of a ballot measure that would have expanded rent control across the state. Additionally, Jay provides five key indicators showing why new apartment supply will remain constrained for the foreseeable future — and what that could mean for the market. Later in the program, Jay continues the supply conversation with Paul Thrift, CEO of Thompson Thrift, the nation's 13th-largest apartment developer. Paul shares how Thompson Thrift is navigating the challenging headwinds to continue an aggressive push to start new apartment projects across the country. ======================= 0:00 - Intro 0:59 - Market data 9:06 - Rental housing trivia 9:40 - In the news 16:14 - Good question 20:20 - Complaints department  22:22 - Rental housing trivia answer 23:36 - Paul Thrift intro 25:22 - Origin Thompson Thrift 28:12 - Current market conditions 31:40 - Construction costs 35:20 - Regulations  38:50 - Zoning 42:22 - Thompson Thrift markets 45:02 - Buyer interest 49:45 - Mission to serve  53:26 - Outro 

Rental housing economist Jay Parsons provides an Election Day look at the rental housing platforms of Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, commentating on the potential impacts for rental housing investors and renters should either be elected. Later in the program, former Freddie Mac CEO David Brickman joins the show to preview his upcoming paper on the success story of multifamily — and looking at what other countries could learn from the U.S. model that has resulted in more housing availability for renters. David and Jay also talk about upcoming challenges facing the U.S. rental market, including the aging stock of tax credit and naturally occurring affordable housing, and what solutions might address that issue. David also opines on whether Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should be allowed to provide construction financing to further spur new supply. Additionally, Jay breaks down headlines on California's Prop 33 and the potential impact of SROs (so-called "adult dorms.") And Jay also tees up a special Election Day edition of Rental Housing Trivia. ====================== 0:00 - Introduction 1:47 - Presidential candidates on housing 11:31 - Rental housing trivia 12:25 - In the news 19:49 - Good question 21:06 - Companies department 23:59 - Rental housing trivia 25:05 - David Brickman intro 25:47 - Paper on the success story of multifamily 31:08 - Historical analysis 34:10 - Construction financing 37:50 - Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac 41:35 - Rental market concerns 46:07 - Solutions 50:45 - Outro

Rental housing economist Jay Parsons welcomes in the former CEO of both Fannie Mae and Berkadia, Hugh Frater, to talk about the politicalization of rental housing. Hugh provides a history lesson on how key policy decisions of the past contributed to the housing affordability challenges of today. Jay and Hugh also talk about why supply is the only lasting solution. Additionally, Jay addresses a common misconception about the impact of new supply in the "Complaints Department" segment, while offering up another edition of Rental Housing Trivia. ===================== 0:00 - Introduction 0:41 - Market data 3:51 - Rental housing trivia 4:35 - In the news 10:16 - Good question  12:08 - Complaints department 14:57 - Rental housing trivia answer  16:37 - Hugh Frater introduction 17:34 - Housing policy 26:00 - Advice to presidential candidates  34:10 - Role of Fannie and Freddie  37:40 - Vessel technologies 42:25 - Outro

Rental housing economist Jay Parsons dives into the data to talk about what cities can do to facilitate more new housing supply -- and what barriers get in the way -- while also addressing Q&A and offering up a special LIHTC Birthday Edition of Rental Housing Trivia. He's joined later by Mayor of Bellevue, Dr. Lynne Robinson, to discuss Bellevue's successful partnerships with Amazon and Microsoft to build workforce housing, and also what the federal government can do to help cities build more housing. ================= 0:00 - Intro 0:00 - Market data 6:13 - Rental housing trivia  6:58 - In the news 13:52 - New digs 15:13 - Good question 17:30 - Complaints department 19:14 - Rental housing trivia answer 20:32 - Dr. Lynee Robinson intro 21:30 - Secret of Bellevue success   25:34 - Partnership with Amazon & Microsoft  29:33 - Developers working with the cities  31:59 - Improving housing policy 37:25 - Advice to developers 40:38 - Outro

Rental housing economist Jay Parsons shares newly released data on Q3 2024 apartment market performance across the U.S. (Hint: Big supply AND big demand!), and offers up rental housing trivia and Q&A. He's joined later by REIT research analyst David Auerbach of Hoya Capital to preview REITs’ earnings season for both SFR and multifamily, and banter on Sun Belt versus Coasts. ================= 0:00 - Intro 0:38 - Multifamily research 4:33 - Rental housing trivia 5:11 - In the news 11:31 - New digs 12:34 - Good question 14:07 - Complaints department  15:27 - Rental housing trivia answer 16:21 - David Auerbach introduction 17:06 - Tracking REITs  17:57 - REITs earning preview 21:51 - Construction landscape  25:02 - Apartments & rent growth 27:38 - Sunbelt vs Coastal market 35:39 - Private vs public NAVs 40:01 - REITs investment landscape 41:01 - Midwest market 45:15 - Outro

Rental housing economist Jay Parsons shares on the roller-coaster path multifamily supply, covers recent headlines on apartments and single-family rentals, and offers up rental housing trivia and Q&A. He's joined later by Payton Mayes, CEO at apartment developer JPI, to dive into the headwinds facing developers today, how JPI is working around those headwinds, and what policymakers can do to boost housing supply. ======================== 0:00 - Intro 0:54 - Research around supply 4:59 - Rental housing trivia 5:39 - In the news 11:35 - New digs 12:39 - Complaints department 14:40 - Rental housing trivia answer 15:18 - Payton Mayes introduction 16:05- JPI staying active in this environment 22:08 - Portfolio in Texas and California  24:21 - Project structure   26:45 - Texas real estate market 29:17 - Real estate political landscape  33:55 - Vision for JPI 36:00 - Outro

Rental housing economist Jay Parsons discusses myth-busting research around rental affordability, covers recent headlines on apartments and single-family rentals, and offers up rental housing trivia and Q&A. He's joined later by Dan Oberste, CEO at BSR REIT, to dive discuss myths versus realities of being public traded, operating in the Sun Belt, serving market-rate renters and forecasting the multifamily outlook. ================== 0:00 - Intro 1:17 - Research around affordability 3:53 - Rental housing trivia 4:31 - In the news 7:27 - Good question 8:52 - Complaints department  10:16 - Rental housing trivia answer 11:28 - Dan Oberste introduction 12:10 - Good/bad of publicly traded REITs  14:56 - Myths around valuations  24:45 - Myths around renters  36:04 - Myths around the Sun Belt  40:50 - Supply/demand: when will rents rebound?  46:58 - Outro

Rental housing economist Jay Parsons discusses the case for middle-income housing investments, covers recent headlines on apartments and single-family rentals, and offers up rental housing trivia and Q&A. He's joined later by Bob Simpson, head of the Multifamily Impact Council, to dive into the investment and policy case for affordable and attainable housing ... as well as a creative potential solution to boost construction. ================== 0:00 - Introduction 2:12 - Can investors afford to ignore affordability? 7:44 - TX Missing middle  10:29 - Rental housing trivia  11:03 - In the news  20:00 - Good question 21:28 - Complaints department 24:50 - Rental housing trivia  25:39 - Bob Simpson introduction 26:05 - The passion for “impact” in multifamily housing 27:57 - Defining affordability 20:38 - Solution to affordability 36:50 - Missing middle solution 39:08 - Impact on investors 42:50 - Construction lending 49:45 - Bob’s closing statements 51:56 - Outro