The Rules of Investing

Christopher Joye is making a bold call on the US. He believes Trump’s policies will deliver exceptionally strong growth, fuelled by tariffs, tax cuts, and trillions in AI-driven investment. In this episode, Joye explains why he is so bullish on America, what the bond market is signalling, and his advice for investors as hybrids roll off in the years ahead. ________________________ Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense. See what AlphaSense can do for your investment research—visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

Large caps are often seen as the steady corner of the market, but recent months have reminded us they’re anything but boring. On this episode of The Rules of Investing, Anna Milne, Deputy Portfolio Manager of WAM Leaders shares how Wilson Asset Management is navigating volatility in the ASX 200.  Milne discusses why they like commodities and how the listed investment company structure allows them to back “fallen angels” they believe still have plenty to give. She also highlights the dependable large caps quietly compounding away, and reveals the one company she’d hold if markets shut for the next five years. Book recommendation: Good to Great ________________________ Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense. See what AlphaSense can do for your investment research—visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

August reporting season was a rollercoaster but it didn't stop the momentum that has been pushing the ASX higher in 2025.  There were shock sell-offs, steady beats, and a very strong showing from small caps. To help make sense of it, Livewire spoke with small cap stock picker Chris Stott from 1851 Capital, and our very own Kerry Sun, who spends his days hunting for insights from announcements, broker notes and market moves to share with readers on Market Index and Livewire. This episode of The Rules of Investing was a little different. We unpacked the big themes and surprising stats, dug into the drivers of small-cap strength, and finished off by handing out five light-hearted reporting season awards - from the Stephen Bradbury Award (for the company everyone had written off) to the Sir Alex Ferguson Award (for standout management).    ________________________ Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense. See what AlphaSense can do for your investment research—visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

MA Financial has built its reputation in the toughest corner of the corporate world, restructures. In the years after the GFC, it advised on some of Australia’s most complex and high-profile turnarounds, from Centro Properties and Alinta Energy to Babcock & Brown and Nine Entertainment. Today, the firm manages over $12 billion and has grown into a major player in private lending. In this episode, Livewire speaks with Frank Danieli, Head of Credit Investments and Lending, about how MA Financial’s restructure heritage shapes its credit strategies, why uncertainty is a constant, and where he sees opportunities, including an unexpected one in car loans.   ________________________ Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense. See what AlphaSense can do for your investment research—visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

Investing feels easier when markets are messy. When volatility spikes and fear takes hold, putting fresh capital to work can feel rational, even opportunistic. But when markets are cruising near record highs, valuations look stretched, and AI stocks are powering ahead like a runaway train, adding to a portfolio can feel unnerving. It’s a sentiment shared by many right now. With the ASX 200 trading at elevated multiples and earnings growth on track to post its third consecutive annual decline, the contradiction is hard to ignore. But according to FNArena Editor Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, it’s not a bubble, and the market isn’t broken. The real problem? Investors are using the wrong lens. “The averages are masking the detail,” he argues. High index-level valuations are being distorted by a handful of heavyweight stocks, while strong underlying growth is still coming through in key parts of the market. In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Rudi joins Livewire’s James Marlay to unpack what’s really going on beneath the surface, why some companies are still worth owning at premium multiples, and how investors can navigate another volatile reporting season without getting spooked out of the market. ___________________ Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense. See what AlphaSense can do for your investment research—visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

Step back for a moment and think about how technology has changed your life over the past two decades. What springs to mind? Smartphones, on-demand streaming (whether it’s music or movies), digital maps, and the broad adoption of artificial intelligence, all powered by fast, affordable and readily available internet access. The list goes on, and there’s no doubt these advances are changing the way we live. But are they truly life-changing? In many cases, yes, but often they’re about convenience and productivity. There’s one industry where the pace of innovation is just as rapid, and the impact arguably more profound: healthcare. More specifically, in this episode of The Rules of Investing, we explore the world of medical technology with Jacob Celermajer, founder of Cordis Asset Management.

For all the scrutiny on private credit of late, one thing remains clear – there remains an insatiable demand for it from investors. Case in point, the recent $315 million raise by Metrics Credit Partners for the Metrics Master Income Trust. It was done in a day. Yet for the man often at the centre of the conversation, Metrics co-founder and Chief Investment Officer, Andrew Lockhart, the mission remains the same as when Metrics was born 12 years ago: raise capital, deploy it sensibly, and above all else, manage the ongoing risks accordingly. "You're fundamentally here to deliver a good outcome for people in terms of their investments. And you never lose sight of the fact that our whole business is set up to effectively manage risk to ensure that we can deliver on our commitments and obligations to our investors," said Lockhart.  That unwavering focus, coupled with an ‘always on’ work ethic, has seen Lockhart and his team grow Metrics to $30 billion of assets under management, with no signs of slowing down. In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Lockhart discusses the conditions that led to the birth of Metrics, its phenomenal growth, and the ongoing challenges that it and the private credit sector face. He also unpacks the current market conditions and what lower interest rates will mean for Metrics’ opportunity set and potential returns for investors. Finally, he shares an exciting new growth opportunity that leverages the company’s existing relationships and skillset. Don’t miss this opportunity to hear directly from someone who has been instrumental in shaping Australia's private credit landscape. Read the summary on Livewire: https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/in-his-own-words-andrew-lockhart-on-risk-regulation-and-responsibility-to-investors

Markets are forward looking and are one of the strongest indicators of what lies ahead for global economies. This dynamic reflects the thinking of millions of market participants digesting and pricing available information to guide how asset prices reflect the future. For all the twists, turns, and curveballs that 2025 has delivered, markets are, in many cases, at or above where the year started. The S&P 500 is in the green, the ASX 200 is up, and yields on US 10-year bonds, a useful proxy for risk appetite, are lower than at the start of the year. At face value, you might conclude that investors are more confident about the economic outlook, or at the very least more comfortable than they were in January. But not all signals are flashing green. A 10% fall year-to-date in the safe-haven US dollar is one example that warrants closer inspection. That’s the view of Fidelity International’s Chief Investment Officer of Equities, Niamh Brodie-Machura, who oversees a team of more than 120 analysts managing over $220 billion for Fidelity clients.

“People are getting too short term. They’re getting panicked by the developments taking place on tariffs and so forth... they don’t realise it’s often just a bargaining point.” That’s the view of Mark Mobius, a pioneer in emerging markets investing and founder of Mobius Investments. Mobius says many investors are misreading the noise echoing around global markets. His advice? “Be patient and be willing to roll with the punches.” In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Livewire’s James Marlay caught up with Mobius in New York to explore how he’s navigating global uncertainty, the investing lessons from decades of travel and working in Asia, and why he believes India is shaping up to be the standout opportunity of the next decade. With a PhD from MIT and a track record that includes growing Templeton’s Emerging Markets Fund from $100 million to $50 billion, Mobius has experienced the highs and lows of multiple market cycles and dislocations. _____________________ Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense. See what AlphaSense can do for your investment research—visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

Ellerston Capital’s fixed-income and multi-asset strategist Vimal Gor says the radical Trump presidency means the US Federal Reserve will be forced to return to quantitative easing later this year to cap bond yields and offset the nation’s fiscal problems. In this podcast, Gor also details why he thinks this means shares, gold and bitcoin can rally later this year. He also argues why he thinks the Aussie dollar will jump versus the greenback on the back of radical shifts in markets that may be set to accelerate and impact every investor. _____________________ Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense. See what AlphaSense can do for your investment research—visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

Amazon spent over a decade as a misunderstood stock - volatile, unprofitable, and often written off. But for those who looked past the noise, it became one of the greatest investments of our time. Today, Janus Henderson sees echoes of that journey in Spotify. It may not look like a market leader yet, but under the surface, the building blocks of enduring growth are falling into place. In this episode, Josh Cummings explains how volatility creates opportunity, why time is a long-term investor’s best friend, and what separates the winners from the noise. Is Spotify your second shot at an Amazon-style success? _____________________ Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense. See what AlphaSense can do for your investment research—visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

In this special episode of The Rules of Investing, veteran stockbroker and Marcus Today founder Marcus Padley joins Livewire’s James Marlay for a wide-ranging conversation on two critical themes. First, Marcus takes aim at the industry’s obsession with buy-and-hold, arguing that smart market timing isn’t just possible - it’s essential for managing risk and avoiding underperformance. Then, he fields Livewire reader questions on everything from gold and lithium to bond yields and WiseTech. It’s bold, unfiltered, and classic Marcus. _____________________ Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense. See what AlphaSense can do for your investment research—visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

Equity markets have bounced, but Andrew Mitchell from Ophir says the road ahead is tricky. Higher bond yields and policy risks point to slower growth. In this environment, companies that can grow through the cycle will stand out. In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Mitchell shares his views on equity markets, the dominance of US megacaps, and why he remains optimistic on small and mid-caps. He also unpacks the thesis behind a mission-critical tech stock flying under the radar, one he believes has the potential to become a rare ‘Rule of 40’ standout. _____________________ Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense. See what AlphaSense can do for your investment research—visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

Australia’s ETF industry is booming - up $53 billion in the past year alone - and a new player is stepping into the ring. David Tuckwell, son of ETF pioneer Graeme Tuckwell, has launched ETF Shares to challenge the giants like Vanguard and Betashares. His weapon of choice? Low fees and ultra-focused US tech exposure. One fund holds just the top 10 Nasdaq stocks - an audacious bet on concentration over diversification. Is there room for another player in an increasingly crowded market? We explore the strategy, the story, and the stakes behind ETF Shares’ bold launch.   _____________________ Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense. See what AlphaSense can do for your investment research—visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

Investors hoping for a swift ‘V-shaped’ recovery from the recent market sell-off are likely to be disappointed. Instead, they face a slow, grinding path forward. That’s the base case from Koda Capital’s Chief Economist, Brigette Leckie, who says the tariff-led policies of Trump 2.0 represent a structural break for economies and markets.   _____________________ Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense. See what AlphaSense can do for your investment research—visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

“Are you okay?” That was the question Emma Fisher got from her mum after the ASX plunged more than 6% in a single day. For Fisher, it was a soft signal that the worst of the panic may be behind us. In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Emma shares why sharp sell-offs are the new normal, the two market “buckets” she’s buying from, and how she’s funding new ideas. Last time she was on the podcast, Emma tipped ResMed at $22. This time, she’s back with a fresh idea she’s backing for the next 5 years. _____________________ Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense. See what AlphaSense can do for your investment research—visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

No matter how long you’ve been in markets, we’re all guilty, at one point or another, of operating at a headline level. When markets are moving violently - like they are now - and we’re all trying to keep up, operating at a summary level can become even more pronounced. But looking beyond the headlines, challenging what you think you know, and diving deeper into complex issues, will almost certainly always yield a better result. For example, one of the dominant narratives right now is that Trump’s tariffs will lead to higher inflation. Logically, it makes sense. But the reality could look quite different according to Charlie Jamieson, Co-Founder of Jamieson Coote Bonds. “Everybody just jumps to ‘tariffs mean higher prices, that means inflation'. Well, it's not quite that simple. It definitely means higher prices, but that does potentially mean demand destruction in some things. It really matters how elastic the thing that is being tariffed actually is", says Jamieson. He goes on to provide the example of a 100% tariff on a luxury handbag: “you probably won’t sell too many.” Conversely, a tariff on the one little part you need for a broken-down heating or air conditioning unit: " You're probably going to pay it because you're really, really need it - it’s very inelastic.” Jamieson also points out that inflation is “a continual and sustained increase in pricing”. “If prices go up 10% that's terrible, obviously demand will be affected, but if they don't change thereafter, it's not inflationary.  It just means that yes, of course it is in the very first reading of, but it's not a continued and sustained price increase”. The final piece to this puzzle is what happened last time. “As we saw in Trump 1.0, despite his tariffs at that time, inflation continually fell through that period”, notes Jamieson. “Trump's thinking is that if he can bring that budgetary deficit down considerably, it will also help take out excess demand, it'll bring more efficiency to government and in doing so, he will lower inflation”. This is just one of the many narratives that Jamieson unpacks in the following Rules of Investing podcast, which covers a lot of ground about the global economy, central bank policy, interest rates, inflation, and why investors have a great opportunity right now to rethink and reposition their portfolios. Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense. See what AlphaSense can do for your investment research—visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

At the start of 2025, there were three big-picture scenarios facing investors: a hard landing, a soft landing, or no landing at all. Just two of those scenarios remain, with a hard landing now off the table, according to Ten Cap’s Jun Bei Liu. That view might seem a touch ambitious in light of the market rout that kicked off in mid-February and gathered steam as sticky inflation and a tariff war put equity valuations under pressure. The ASX 200 has fallen 8.5% in a month and is down over 4.5% for 2025. The picture is worse for US equities, where, after back-to-back years of +20% gains, the S&P 500 has shed over 10% in a month and is down over 5% from the start of the year. The headlines and moves are unnerving, but the backdrop for equities remains favourable, and the volatility is creating opportunities to buy businesses at better valuations, according to Jun Bei Liu.   Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense. See what AlphaSense can do for your investment research—visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

The allure of small-cap investing is undeniable. The chance to find an overlooked gem that can skyrocket is real, but the risks are just as high. Illiquidity, limited analyst coverage, and varying investor strategies create opportunities—but also traps. Success stories like Pro Medicus and Netwealth prove the potential, yet the volatility can be brutal. Steve Johnson, CIO at Forager Funds, knows this world well. In the latest episode of The Rules of Investing, he shares his journey from investment newsletters to funds management and reveals the small caps he's backing for future growth. Don’t miss it!

From investing his paper route money in term deposits when he was nine years old, to racing the two kilometres from one end of Collins Street to the other to submit a handwritten RBA bond tender, to running a market-beating income fund for more than 20 years, Yarra Capital Management’s Roy Keenan has seen it all in his 40 years in fixed income. It is this broad experience and love for fixed income that makes Keenan such an interesting person to talk to, particularly given the world as we find it today. There’s a new regime taking shape in the US, the promises of which will need to be funded by new paper, locally we have state governments in trouble (none more so than Victoria, where Keenan was at the coalface last time it was broke), whilst the energy transition and other major investment themes are creating opportunities. Making sense of it all is always the key, but when you have four decades of experience you have learnt when to use your head and when to pay attention to your gut. "I think that the head tells you to put the trade on. I think the gut is the warning signal that something doesn't feel right and therefore instead of taking that trade off quickly, you might just let it run a little bit longer to see how it will play out," he says. So, which themes are dominating Keenan’s head space and innards today? Be sure to listen to the podcast for insights on the world's biggest and most liquid markets, as well as some war stories from Keenan’s 40 years in the market.