Claim OwnershipThe Russia Contingency with Michael Kofman
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A bi-weekly podcast featuring in-depth analysis of Russia's military power and the war in Ukraine, with your favorite expert on the topic.
103 Episodes
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MIT nuclear fellows Austin Long and Pranay Vaddi join Mike to discuss their memories and lessons learned from the heightened nuclear tensions with Russia in the fall of 2022.
Image: President of the Russian Federation via Wikimedia Commons
Michael Kofman sits down with Brig. Gen. Jyri Raitasalo, commander of the Finnish Karelia Brigade, to explore how Finland is adapting its defense planning in the wake of NATO membership. They discuss Finland’s approach to national defense on the border with Russia, the country’s integration into NATO, and how the brigade prepares conscripts and reservists for war. The conversation examines lessons from Ukraine, the balance between old and new military capabilities, and the future of Finnish investments in airpower, artillery, and ground-based defense.
Image: Sgt. Randis Monroe via DVIDS
In this episode of The Russia Contingency, Michael Kofman sits down with Franz-Stefan Gady to examine the uncertain future of European security. They unpack Europe’s reactions to the Alaska Summit, the fraught debate over security guarantees for Ukraine, and the questions leaders continue to avoid — what risks they are truly willing to take, and whether Ukraine can be fully integrated into Europe’s security architecture. The discussion also probes evolving battlefield dynamics, the consequences of U.S. strategic realignment, and the credibility gap at the core of Europe’s defense posture, drawing on recent trips to the front and Gady’s book The Return of War.
Image: Number 10 via Wikimedia Commons
Concluding their on-the-ground assessments from Ukraine this summer, Michael Kofman and Rob Lee dive deep into Russia’s recent infiltration tactics in Donetsk and the attempted advances near Pokrovsk and Dobropillia. They explain what really happened during the breach, how Ukraine hit back, and why overlapping engagement zones — combined with lagging indicators — blur the line between real breakthroughs and minor gains. They close with a sharp recap of Russia’s summer operations and what current battlefield dynamics indicate for the months ahead.
Image: Army Inform
Michael Kofman and Rob Lee continue their on-the-ground analysis from their recent trip to Ukraine, examining how the war has shifted over the summer. They unpack the latest battlefield trends, from the promise and pitfalls of fiber-optic cable drones to the duel of “drone lines,” the rise of unmanned ground vehicles, and the emergence of new interceptor drones — all while underscoring why infantry remains central to the fight.
Image: Natalia Kravchuk via ArmyInform
Michael Kofman and Rob Lee offer an on-the-ground assessment of the Russo-Ukrainian War based on their latest field study. They explore the state of Ukrainian defenses and Russian offensive tactics, the increasing prominence of drone use, and the changing nature of the front since their last visit in February.
Image: Army Inform
Stephen Kotkin and Michael Kofman continue their conversation on the Russo-Ukrainian War. In this episode, they examine the direction of U.S. policy toward Ukraine, what the future might hold, and explore how Russia’s long history helps make sense of its wartime choices today.
Image: Army Inform
Stephen Kotkin joins Michael Kofman to assess the state of the Russo-Ukrainian War halfway through 2025. What has more than three years of resistance taught us about Ukraine’s will — and Russia’s limits? Why has Vladimir Putin rejected an armistice even when offered on favorable terms? And what if the war ends with no real winner — only exhaustion? The two discuss the historical context, the risk of prolonged conflict, and the potential long-term impacts on both nations.
Image: Army Inform
In Part 2 of this episode, Mike Kofman, Justin Bronk, and Guy Plopsky continue their analysis of how Israel’s recent air campaign against Iran compares with Russia’s initial air operations in Ukraine. They examine what these two very different conflicts reveal about the role and limits of airpower.
Image: Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine via Wikimedia Commons
Why has Israel been able to succeed in the air where Russia has struggled? In Part 1 of this episode, Mike Kofman sits down with Justin Bronk and Guy Plopsky to break down Israel’s recent air campaign against Iran, how it overcame air defenses, and what that reveals about the failures and limits of Russian airpower in Ukraine.
Image: Mehr News Agency via Wikimedia Commons
Mike, Rob Lee, and Dara Massicot break down Ukraine’s bold drone strike against Russia’s long-range aviation assets. They examine how the operation unfolded, its impact, and what it signals for the future direction of the war.
Image: ArmyInform
On this special episode of the Russia Contingency, Michael Kofman sat down with Ants Kiviselg, the head of Estonian military intelligence, on the sidelines of the Lennart Meri Conference in Tallinn, Estonia. They discuss the current state of the Russo-Ukrainian War and Estonian perspectives on Russian aggression and Baltic regional security. They also cover Russian military vulnerabilities, reconstitution, and its future military capabilities.
Image: U.S. Army via Wikimedia Commons
Michael Kofman, Alexandra Prokopenko, and Richard Connolly continue their conversation on the state of the Russian economy in 2025. In particular, they cover debates about whether Russia is on the verge of a financial crisis, the potential impact of further sanctions on the Russian economy, and expectations for the rest of 2025.
Image: Office of the Prime Minister of the Russian Federation via Wikimedia Commons
On this episode of The Russia Contingency, Mike Kofman is joined by Alexandra Prokopenko and Richard Connolly to discuss the state of the Russian economy in 2025. Although it has outperformed expectations since the start of the Russo-Ukrainian War, the Russian economy still faces significant long-term risks. In addition to other topics, the conversation explores the impact of oil prices, budgetary constraints, and increased defense spending in Russia.
Image: The Kremlin via Wikimedia Commons
Shashank Joshi and Michael Kofman continue their conversation about the lessons to be drawn from Ukraine. Their wide-ranging conversation covers the utility of AI in weapons systems, long-range strike, the defense investments Europe needs to make, the nuclear question, and recommended reading.
Shashank Joshi, defense editor at the Economist, swaps seats with Mike to interview him about his broad takeaways from the Russo-Ukrainian War. They discuss the true implications of the ‘revolutionary’ technology developed throughout the war, the right to maneuver, precision mass, the strength of the Russian military, and the uncomfortable reality of an attrition war for the West.
On this episode of the Russia Contingency, Michael Kofman and Rob Lee continue their discussion on the latest technological adaptations and innovations in Ukraine, particularly the rapid innovation of both unmanned air and ground vehicles and how they compensate for Ukraine’s manpower issues. They also underscore the challenges of feedback loops and how both state and non-state actors alike can draw lessons from this war to prepare for future conflicts.
On this episode of the Russia Contingency, Rob Lee joins Michael Kofman to discuss recent Russian advances in Kursk and the state of the rest of the frontline in Ukraine. They also discuss the latest tactical and technological adaptations, particularly regarding the usage of drones and mines, North Korean forces, and the prospects of a ceasefire.
Rob Lee joins Michael Kofman to discuss their insights from their latest field study trip to Ukraine, the current trajectory of the Russo-Ukrainian War, developments on the frontline, and how things have changed since their last trip in October 2024.
Two open source intelligence experts join Michael Kofman to discuss their collection and data analysis methods particularly in regard to the state of Russian equipment stocks — including tanks, armored fighting vehicles, and artillery — and what it can tell us about Russia's ability to sustain the war.
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