In this episode, we cover the market madness that prevailed in the past week, the pockets of inflationary pressures brought about by bottlenecks in the supply chain, and the record earnings from big tech that flew under the radar
In this episode, we discuss the Federal Reserve's future rate cuts, the surprising job market data, a soft European economy, and tech giants' AI-driven performance 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:15 Decoding the Fed's Signals 00:03:18 Soft Signals from Europe's Economy 00:04:21 Natural Gas Inventory Surprises 00:05:06 Tech Earnings and AI 00:07:58 Meta's Dividend Debut 00:09:16 Chips and Games: Industry Trends 00:10:51 Conclusion
In this episode, we discuss the key takeaways from the first 3 weeks of earnings season. The key trend is the softening trends in the economy, the state of the EV market and the stabilization in cloud.
In this episode, we discuss key gleanings from the earnings season including takeaways on bank earnings, inflation, and AI.
In this episode, we analyze the happenings in the banking world last week that started with the fall of the Silicon Valley Bank. Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:07 The Rapid Fall of SVB 00:02:14 The 3 Banks That Failed 00:05:12 Contagion Effects? 00:09:15 Goliath is Winning 00:12:26 Conclusion
In this episode, we discuss last week's statements by Fed governors, the still-strong consumer spending and the hype around AI. 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:08 Waiting for Data 00:01:38 Consumer Spending Still Strong 00:02:10 Slowing Retail Comps 00:03:38 The State of the Energy and Materials Markets 00:05:26 Back to 1990s? 00:10:39 Conclusion
In this episode we discuss the pesky inflation, the state of retail and takeaways from the Berkshire 2022 shareholder letter Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:07 Pesky inflation 00:00:58 Pressured but Spending 00:02:05 Softening Labour Markets? 00:03:39 Takeaways from Retailers 00:05:51 Week ahead 00:09:59 Conclusion
In this episode, we examine the state of the consumer, the impact of UID2 on advertising, and how things are going with ChatGPT. Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:13 Consumer is Still Partying 00:01:31 Service Inflation Still Sticky 00:02:45 No Hurricane Yet 00:03:22 UID 2.0 00:05:44 ChatGPT Attracting Criticism 00:08:15 Back to Office at Amazon 00:09:27 Conclusion
In this episode, we dissect the gleanings from the latest post-FOMC press conference and the takeaways from tech earnings.
In this episode, we discuss the resiliency of consumer spending, the sticky services inflation, and the era of AI.
In this episode, we discuss how companies are preparing for a mild recession, the developing decade of AI and the status of the reopening of China. Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:07 A Mild Recession Ahead 00:02:12 Will the Fed Slow Down? 00:04:36 Pace of Decline in VC Investments Slows Down 00:05:32 The Decade of AI 00:09:38 Nearshoring and the Reopening of China 00:10:58 Conclusion
In the first episode of the new year, we discuss what has changed since the holidays and we preview the Q4 2022 earnings season. Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:08 A Cooling Down 00:01:55 Inflation Cooling in Europe 00:03:03 Inflation in Services 00:05:52 A Hunkering for Fries 00:06:49 The AI revolution 00:09:19 Weakening Data Center Demand 00:11:15 Earnings Season Preview 00:12:40 Conclusion
In this episode, we review the year 2022 through quotes from earnings calls and also track the incredible growth we have had at The Transcript. Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:07 A Year of Worries 00:01:51 The Fed Behind the Curve 00:04:51 Inflation Peaked 00:06:41 The End of an Era 00:08:22 Looking into 2023 00:10:04 Incredible Growth at The Transcript
In this episode, we discuss the signs of slow down in spending, how companies are prepping for a hurricane and the impact ChatGPT is having. Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:08 There is a slowdown 00:02:28 Companies Prepping for a Hurricane 00:04:26 The 2% Trend 00:06:11 IT Budgets under Pressure 00:08:04 The ChatGPT Moment 00:11:07 Conclusion
In this episode, we host Sean Stannard-Stockton who is the president and chief investment officer of Ensemble Capital Management and is a regular reader of our newsletter. We discuss his takeaways from the latest Q3 22 earnings from companies in their portfolio including Mastercard, Starbucks, Ferrari, Home Depot, and Netflix.
In this episode, we discuss the signals from freight companies on weakening demand, the FTX saga, and the Meta U-Turn Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:07 Inflation Going Down? 00:03:09 The Crypto Crisis 00:07:54 The Meta U-Turn 00:09:36 Semis and the Energy Transition 00:10:06 Conclusion
In this episode, we discuss the musings from the Fed meeting last week, the challenged ad markets, and the state of energy markets in Europe Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:08 The Fed is Staying the Course 00:03:54 Europe is Weak 00:05:24 Mexico a Beneficiary of Reshoring 00:07:05 Weak Ad Spend 00:08:52 A Warm Welcome to the New Subscribers
In this episode, we are joined by Brad Freeman, author of the newsletter Stock Market Nerd, to discuss key takeaways from tech earnings. Show Notes 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:43 Resilient consumer starting to get jittery 00:03:00 Some Weakness in Spending? 00:04:09 Meta Worries 00:09:19 Weaknesses in Cloud emerging as growth moderates 00:13:45 Weaknesses in Retail
In this special episode (Episode 80), we host former hedge fund manager Marc Rubinstein to discuss the key takeaways from Banks' Q3 22 earnings calls. Marc is the author of Net Interest and writes for Bloomberg Opinion. He covers financial sector themes. We are also joined by Brian Gilmartin, CFA from Trinity Asset Management who writes the blog Fundamentalis.
In this special episode, we are joined by Jesse Felder to discuss the macro takeaways from our recent newsletters including the Fed's fight with inflation, the heightened recession risks, the distress in financial markets, and the early innings of a commodity super-cycle. Show Notes [00:00:00] Introduction [00:00:15] The Fed’s Hard Time with Inflation [00:02:46] Inflation Is a Choice [00:06:54] Recession Risks [00:10:36] When will Real Rates be Positive? [00:12:47] Declining Cons...