The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey

What happens when you bring together three veteran foreign correspondents, each carrying decades of wisdom, scars, and tales from the world’s most dangerous places?

A much-touted meeting between US President Donald J. Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, their third encounter this year, apparently failed to move the needle on a Gaza ceasefire, despite both men expressing optimism that an agreement was only days away.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to meet US President Donald Trump at the White House on Monday. The talks come amid ongoing indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas in Doha, as efforts to reach a ceasefire in Gaza continue. James M. Dorsey, an adjunct senior fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, shares his analysis on whether Trump’s push for a 60-day truce has a real shot.

If US President Donald J. Trump had his druthers, he would announce a Gaza ceasefire on Monday when Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu visits him in the Oval Office for the third time this year That may be easier said than done despite Mr. Netanyahu’s endorsement of the latest US ceasefire proposal and Hamas’s ‘positive’ response. Mr. Netanyahu and Hamas have responded positively to the proposal, even though it doesn’t bridge the most significant issue dividing them: whether to end the war and on what terms. Even so, neither Mr. Netanyahu nor Hamas wants to get on Mr. Trump’s wrong side and shoulder the blame for another failure to get the guns to fall silent in the devastated Strip. Reading between the lines of the two parties’ responses, the cracks are apparent. Nevertheless, the parties appear inclined to accept what amounts to cosmetic changes that paper over the gap in their positions, which have not narrowed.

Gaza, US military contractors, Trump, Syria , and much more

American contractors guarding aid distribution sites in Gaza are allegedly using live ammunition and stun grenades against Palestinians seeking food, according to the Associated Press. James M. Dorsey, from Singapore’s S Rajaratnam School of International Studies weighs in.

Note: There's a little bit of crackle in the audio in this episode. Attempts were made to remove crackle as much as possible, but it remains at some point. Hopefully it does not pose too much of a problem for listening. https://jamesmdorsey.substack.com/p/israel-iran-ceasefire-fragility-israels On this edition of Parallax Views, James M. Dorsey of the Turbulent World Substack blog returns to reflect of the "ceasefire" between Israel and Iran. Dorsey argues this is not so much a ceasefire as a fragile halt of hostilities for the time being, or a pause. Dorsey notes that it's unclear how much of Iran's nuclear program has been damaged or salvaged by the Islamic Republic in light of the strikes. That, he says, is a big question right now. We then discuss Trump's relationship with the Gulf States and his evangelical Christian Zionist base. That poses an issue for Trump, Dorsey argues. $3.6 trillion are on the table from the Gulf States (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, etc.) and they want the situation with Israel, Gaza, and Iran solved according to Dorsey. The tumult and fragility of the Middle East has become something of a headache for both the U.S. and the Gulf States. Dorsey argues the current talk of a Gaza ceasefire is a "Fata Morgana", or a mirage, an illusion. We delve into the different interests at work when it comes to the Gulf States and Israel, and how the relationship between Israel and certain Gulf States have changed from 2015 to now. He argues that the Gulf States' perceptions of Israel have changed. For one thing, the Saudi Arabia-Iran rapprochement means that the situation of Israel's unofficial alliance with the Saudis against Iran has changed. Moreover, Dorsey says that the defense doctrine of Israel has gone from deterrence to emasculation of perceived enemies and states within the region. This changes the dynamic between Israel and the Gulf States, at least in how the Gulf States perceive Israel. Which is to say that Gulf States are now perceiving Israel as aggressive leading to the question of, "Could we be next?" We then begin delving into some "odds and ends" in the conversation including: - Israel, Palestine, and the issue of the 1967 borders - The history of the U.S.-Iran relations and why they have been so tense - Pushing back on the "mad mullahs" narrative about the Islamic Republic of Iran - Trump's walking away from the JCPOA (the Iran nuclear deal) - Is Iran more likely to go nuclear after the latest strikes? - Biggest risk in the Middle East?: not tackling root problems; Israel's belief that it has the right to strikes whenever and wherever it wants against a perceived threat means a "law of the jungle" system in the Middle East and could become adopted by other states - Potential deal between Israel and Syria - The Abu Shabab clan in Gaza - Netanyahu's rejection of any Palestinian national aspirations and what informs it - And more! NOTE: Views of guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect all the views of J.G. Michael or the Parallax Views w/ J.G. Michael program

It’s going to take more than the halt of Israeli-Iranian hostilities to replicate US President Donald J. Trump’s success in Gaza, let alone leverage it into a paradigm-changing Saudi, Arab, and Muslim recognition of the Jewish state. It’s not because of a lack of effort but because the assumptions underlying the push to end Israel’s devastating 21-month-long assault on the Strip in response to Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack on Israel are problematic. Earlier this week, Mr. Trump asserted, “We think within the next week we’re going to get a (Gaza) ceasefire.” Mr. Trump’s prediction came amid increasing chatter about a possible long-evasive pause, if not a permanent halt, to the Israeli assault that has turned Gaza into a pile of rubble and sparked one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.

Iran has vowed to respond to any future US strikes by attacking American military bases in the Middle East, according to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in an address on Thursday- his first televised remarks since a ceasefire was reached between Iran and Israel. The 12-day war culminated in Iran’s attack on a US base in Qatar, which is the largest in the region, after the US joined Israeli strikes. US intelligence assessments indicate that America’s bunker-buster bomb and cruise missile strikes did not destroy the three Iranian nuclear sites on Sunday- despite Trump’s remarks that the attack “completely and fully obliterated” the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program. Analysts have warned that although the ceasefire is still intact, it is extremely fragile, with hopes for longer-term peace resting on potential negotiations between the US and Iran next week. “There may or may not be negotiations this week or talks this week between the United States and Iran, but nothing is going to get resolved and as a result you’ve got a very fragile ceasefire,” James M. Dorsey said in this week’s Middle East Report

Don’t hold your breath. US President Donald J. Trump’s silencing of Iranian and Israeli guns is fragile at best. Speaking at a news conference on the sidelines of a NATO summit, Mr. Trump admitted as much. “Can it start again? I guess it can, maybe some day soon,” Mr Trump said. The fragility was built into the halt to the hostilities from the outset, starting with differences over whether the halt constituted a ceasefire. Iran rejects the notion of a ceasefire, even if it has agreed to halt the hostilities.

The Center for International Relations and Sustainable Development (CIRSD) hosted an award-winning journalist and scholar Dr. James M. Dorsey for a special Horizons Discussion on June 23rd, 2025. In conversation with Horizons Managing Editor Stefan Antić, Dorsey unpacked the lightning-fast escalation between Israel and Iran, the Trump administration’s divided response, and the wider stakes for regional and great-power politics.

The targeted sites by the US attack on Iran are Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan. Fordo is one of Iran's key uranium enrichment facilities, located underground in the southwest of Tehran. Natanz is another major enrichment site, which is located southeast of Tehran. Uranium had been enriched to up to 60 per cent purity at the site before Israeli strikes targeted parts of it.

Hamas’ October 7, 2023, paradigm-shifting attack has prompted Israel to change its defense doctrine with devastating consequences for the Middle East. No longer satisfied with operating on the principle of deterrence, involving regular strikes against Hamas in Gaza and Lebanon, militant Palestinian groups in the West Bank, Yemen’s Houthi rebels, Iranian targets in Syria and the Islamic Republic, and Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria, Israel’s new defense doctrine focuses on militarily emasculating its opponents. The new doctrine, focused on kinetic rather than negotiated solutions, has driven Israeli military operations since the Hamas attack broke a psychological barrier by successfully breaching Israeli defences and invading Israeli territory. Hamas and other Palestinians killed some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, in the attack. Israel’s subsequent decimation of Hamas and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Lebanese Shiite militia and political movement, with little regard for the cost to innocent human lives, offered proof of concept for a strategy that involves killing top leaders and destroying military infrastructure based on the Jewish state’s military and intelligence superiority. In addition to the devastation of Gaza in a bid to destroy Hamas militarily and politically and the weakening of Hezbollah, Israel has destroyed much of the Syrian military arsenal and infrastructure since the fall of President Bashar al-Assad. Now, it is targeting Iran’s military command, missile and launcher arsenal, and nuclear facilities. “The unexpected degree of success…reduced Israeli wariness about launching a similar campaign against Iran, despite expectations that a severe Iranian response might still be forthcoming,” said Michael Koplow, chief policy officer at the Israel Policy Forum. Alarmingly, Israel’s newly conceived dominance-driven military assertiveness has fueled public anger and widespread anticipation of war across the Middle East.

In this timely commentary, award-winning journalist and scholar James M. Dorsey unpacks the deeper implications of the recent Iran-Israel escalation. From regional power dynamics to global repercussions, he offers sharp, incisive insights into what this confrontation reveals—and what might come next.

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is caught between a rock and a hard place. He risks being doomed if he does and doomed if he doesn’t. Despite causing significant damage and Israeli casualties with its missile barrages, Iran is incapable of winning a war against Israel.

The Embassy of the United States in Tel Aviv was temporarily closed after the building sustained minor damage following an Iranian missile strike overnight, US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee confirmed on Monday. Though no injuries or casualties were reported among US diplomatic staff, videos surfaced on the internet showing the consulate building impacted by the concussive force of nearby explosions Our US Embassy in Israel and Consulate will officially remain closed today as shelter in place still in effect. Some minor damage from concussions of Iranian missile hits near Embassy Branch in Tel Aviv but no injuries to US personnel," Huckabee wrote in a post on X.

Is Israel against a negotiated resolution to Iran’s nuclear programme_TRT 16062025 by James M. Dorsey

Beyond shifting the paradigm of Middle Eastern geopolitics, Israel’s dramatic strikes against Iran are likely to shape the outcome of a battle within the Trump administration over US policy towards the region. The battle, with Israel at its core, pits Make America Great Again proponents against pro-Israel figures in the administration, with Iran constituting a major battlefield. Putting Iran on the front burner, Israel’s attacks have presented US President Donald J. Trump with his most serious foreign policy conundrum to date. Mr. Trump’s problem is foreign and domestic.

Iran has vowed a strong response to an Israeli airstrike on its nuclear program early Friday. James M. Dorsey, senior fellow at Singapore’s S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, explains how Tehran is expected to react following Israel’s major military offensive targeting its nuclear and military sites.

To say Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is a highly controversial figure in Israeli politics is, at best, an understatement. Yet, his notion of a forever war against Palestinians resonates with a significant segment of Israeli public opinion, despite differences over strategy, tactics, and the prioritisation of the war’s goals.