The Uncertainty Podcast

Mike Titelbaum, author of the two-volume "Fundamentals of Bayesian Epistemology," dissects the use of probability in philosophy, philosophy of religion, science, and everyday life. We do, of course, discuss my recent discussion with John Norton and the material theory of induction.Video of this interview is available on YouTube.To support the channel, do please oh please consider donating, either via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.Follow me on X because you’re awesome.EPISODE CHAPTERS:00:00:00 Introduction00:01:11 What is Bayesianism?00:05:21 Must credences have precise numerical values?00:07:16 Imprecise credence and comparative confidence00:14:27 Bayesianism and Norton’s material theory of induction00:20:02 Can we assign probabilities to the universe’s initial conditions?00:28:57 Fine-tuning and the principle of indifference00:35:13 Objective versus subjective Bayesianism00:39:20 Must rational beliefs obey the probability axioms?00:47:01 Incommensurability and alternative models of credence00:55:06 Can Bayesianism evaluate evidence for God?00:59:08 How probability theory illuminates evidential support01:03:03 Everyday probability versus mathematical probability01:07:55 Does subjective Bayesianism entail skepticism?01:19:46 What is Titelbaum most uncertain about? Get full access to Miles K. Donahue at mileskdonahue.substack.com/subscribe

Emily Adlam discusses the problems facing several interpretations of quantum mechanics: principal among them, the probability problem. Prepare for discussion of self-locating credences, branch-counting, and whether a mechanism deposits consciousness throughout the branching wavefunction of the universe.Video of this interview is available on YouTube.To support the channel, do please oh please consider donating, either via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.Follow me on X because you’re awesome.EPISODE CHAPTERS:00:00:00 Introduction00:01:52 The problem of recovering empirical confirmation00:04:47 The many-worlds interpretation00:07:01 The measurement problem00:08:42 The probability problem in many-worlds00:12:06 The decision-theoretic approach to probability00:16:33 Self-locating evidence and Everettian quantum mechanics00:19:20 Pure vs. superficial self-locating credence00:25:08 Can the Born rule constrain self-locating credence?00:30:15 Interpretations vs. theories of quantum mechanics00:34:51 Can we save science from quantum mechanics?00:44:30 What happened to the Copenhagen interpretation?00:46:45 What do physicists believe about quantum mechanics?00:48:27 The anthropic argument for God00:56:22 Multiverses, fine-tuning, and self-locating evidence Get full access to Miles K. Donahue at mileskdonahue.substack.com/subscribe

In the hundredth episode of this podcast, I discuss the use, and misuse, of probability in science and philosophy with John Norton. Prepare for a contentious conversation about fundamental issues in probability theory, induction, and cosmic fine-tuning. This one does not disappoint.Video of this interview is available on YouTube.To support the channel, do please oh please consider donating, either via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.Follow me on X because you’re awesome.EPISODE CHAPTERS:00:00:00 Introduction00:00:30 Formal vs. material theories of induction00:04:58 Does material induction make induction redundant?00:11:15 Bayesianism vs. the material theory00:16:47 Can we say evolution is “probably” true?00:19:23 Evidential support without probabilities00:23:16 Can Bayesianism capture inference to the best explanation?00:25:00 The outcome space dispute00:29:47 Probability and the danger of false precision00:31:03 The simulation argument and misapplied probability00:35:39 The doomsday argument and self-locating evidence00:38:33 Objective vs. subjective Bayesianism00:43:36 The bootstrapping problem for probability00:50:53 Probability in cosmology and the multiverse00:57:59 Does inflation make our universe more probable?01:00:19 What is John Norton most uncertain about? Get full access to Miles K. Donahue at mileskdonahue.substack.com/subscribe

Tim Mawson, professor of philosophy at Oxford, discusses the contours of the newly emerging philosophical investigation into the meaning of life. What does it mean to say that life's meaning is subjective versus objective? Would life be meaningful if we were immortal? And what difference does God make, and not make, to whether life means anything?Video of this interview is available on YouTube.To support the channel, do please oh please consider donating, either via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.Follow me on X because you’re awesome.EPISODE CHAPTERS:00:00:00 Introduction00:02:55 Open theism and God's relationship to time00:11:09 Returning to the meaning of life00:12:06 Why philosophers neglected the meaning of life00:15:48 What does it mean for life to have meaning?00:19:20 Objectivism, subjectivism and hybrid theories00:28:23 Objective meaning, subjective states and purpose00:35:00 Can there be no meaning to life?00:39:47 What can God add to life's meaning?00:43:25 Vocation, purpose and meaningfulness00:50:50 Does God give some people more meaningful lives?00:59:20 Death, immortality and the meaning of life01:00:25 Would eternal life become unbearably boring?01:07:48 Does infinite time destroy urgency?01:13:23 Would praising God forever become boring?01:18:14 What God cannot add to life's meaning01:21:55 Can God's existence make a life less meaningful?01:24:18 What is the meaning of life? Get full access to Miles K. Donahue at mileskdonahue.substack.com/subscribe

Kevin Scharp comes back on the podcast to discuss William Lane Craig’s eight-part case for the existence of God: contingency, cosmology, mathematics, fine-tuning, consciousness, morality, miracles, and experience.Video of this interview is available on YouTube.To support the channel, do please oh please consider donating, either via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.Follow me on X because you’re awesome.EPISODE CHAPTERS:00:00:00 Introduction00:01:20 Behind the scenes: Kevin vs. William Lane Craig00:14:11 Craig on probability & inference to the best explanation00:23:07 Divine psychology and fine-tuning00:27:06 Argument #1 - Contingency00:43:30 Does everything need an explanation?00:49:48 Argument #2 - Kalam cosmological argument00:51:35 Actual infinity and Hilbert’s Hotel01:03:06 Argument #3 - Fine-tuning01:09:53 What does the Big Bang actually tell us?01:11:53 Divine psychology01:27:08 Argument #4 - Applicability of mathematics01:35:08 Argument #5 - Consciousness01:40:47 Does consciousness really get us to God?01:45:41 Argument #6 - Morality01:54:43 Argument #7 - The resurrection of Jesus01:58:27 Miracles and the laws of nature02:08:25 Argument #8 - Experience of God Get full access to Miles K. Donahue at mileskdonahue.substack.com/subscribe