The Week Ahead

The Week Ahead

<p>SBM Intelligence's take on Nigeria and Africa brought to you every week.</p>

A spot of bother

A leaked memo from the U.S. State Department indicates that the Trump administration is weighing reducing America's diplomatic presence in Africa as part of its broader effort to slash government spending. How could a smaller U.S. presence affect diplomatic ties and development efforts across Africa? Nigeria has taken a significant step toward regional economic integration by submitting its tariff schedule to the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Why is this coming now, fiv...

04-25
39:26

Façade

France and Algeria have restored ties after months of tension over France’s support for Morocco’s Western Sahara plan. Meanwhile, Algeria banned Mali flights after shooting down a drone. Could Algeria’s renewed friendship with France worsen its relations with Sahel neighbours? At least 52 people were killed in recent attacks on six villages in Nigeria's Plateau State. In Kebbi State, 16 vigilantes were killed by terrorists. In Borno State, Governor Zulum raised concerns over a surge in Boko ...

04-11
29:15

Uneven ground

President Bola Tinubu has appointed a new board for the NNPC, intending to increase oil sector investments and raise production to 2 million barrels. How effective will the new board be in achieving these ambitious targets? Meanwhile, seven opposition states are suing President Tinubu over his suspension of elected officials in Rivers State, claiming it violates the Nigerian Constitution. What impact could this legal challenge have on Tinubu’s governance? In geopolitics, Niger’s junta has q...

04-04
25:18

No chill

Some Nigerian leaders have argued that Western-style democracy does not work well in Africa. Former President Obasanjo called for a new system. How can Nigeria create a democratic system that aligns with its cultural and political realities? Fulani herder-farmer violence in Nigeria has escalated into a nationwide security threat. A new report by SBM Intelligence examines this conflict and highlights the need for urgent action to prevent catastrophic consequences for national stability, food ...

03-29
27:29

Rumbles

The US expelled South Africa’s ambassador, Ebrahim Rasool. This rare diplomatic action intensified tensions between the two nations. How might this expulsion impact US-South Africa relations moving forward? Rwanda has severed diplomatic ties with Belgium, accusing it of undermining the country amid the conflict between the DRC and the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels. How could this diplomatic rift affect Rwanda’s international standing? In Nigeria, President Tinubu declared a state of emergency in...

03-22
26:16

Lights out

NNPC first announced that had stopped supplying crude to local refineries, including Dangote, then announced that it was renegotiating with Dangote. How will this affect fuel prices and Nigeria’s economy in the coming months? The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria opposes a new law that significantly increases financial charges on businesses. What impact will this law have on Nigeria’s business environment? Ghana’s President John Mahama is working to ease trade barriers with Mali and stre...

03-15
21:40

Fragile gains

According to our report "Price of Everything", despite rising food prices and living costs, Nigerians continue to spend on streaming and cable TV. Internet use is also increasing despite a 50% hike in data prices. Without action to stabilise the economy and boost food production, inflation will keep hurting households. How can both food and digital services become more affordable? Ousted Speaker Mudashiru Obasa has been reinstated at the Lagos State House of Assembly. What does this t...

03-08
20:34

Bridges to nowhere

Thousands of Nigerians who fled to Chad due to the Boko Haram insurgency have started returning to Maiduguri, Borno State. What challenges might these returnees face as they reintegrate into their communities? Nigeria is preparing to conduct its first national population and housing census since 2006, incorporating biometric and digital technology. How can Nigeria ensure the credibility and accuracy of its upcoming census? A South African court dismissed claims of a "white genocide,"...

03-01
27:39

Gifts that keep on taking

Valentine’s Day has become a major spending event in the country, with gifts, dining, and entertainment driving consumer activity. Traditional gifts remain popular, but experiential gifts are also in demand. How did businesses that adapt to evolving preferences position to benefit from this growing market? President Bola Tinubu has requested the National Assembly to increase the 2025 budget by ₦4.5 trillion, raising it from ₦49.7 trillion to ₦54.2 trillion. Will this budget increase effectiv...

02-15
22:10

Maelstrom

Boko Haram killed at least 20 fishermen in Borno State, and ISWAP fighters attacked a Nigerian military base in Malam-Fatori, killing 20 soldiers. The militants surprised the troops with gun trucks and gunfire, burning buildings and forcing people to flee. How can Nigeria better protect its people and military from these insurgent attacks? Rwandan-backed M23 rebels entered Goma, the DRC's largest city, causing confusion over who controls the area. The Congo River Alliance claimed full contro...

01-31
31:40

Familiar struggles

Nigeria's BVN enrollments reached 64.83 million by January 2025, and the CBN introduced new platforms and accounts to simplify fund transfers and investments for Nigerians abroad. How will these initiatives improve financial inclusion for Nigerians in the diaspora? Environmentalists oppose restarting oil production in Ogoniland, demanding a $1 trillion cleanup and implementation of a U.N. report before resuming operations. What steps should be prioritised to ensure environmental justice in O...

01-25
25:02

Lightheaded

During China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi's visit, President Tinubu urged expanding the $2 billion currency swap, revisiting the $50 billion Africa aid package, and supporting Nigeria's UN Security Council bid. China pledged deeper cooperation and implementing FOCAC agreements, and the China Development Bank granted Nigeria a $254.76 million loan for the Kano-Kaduna railway project. How will the railway loan and stronger ties with China impact Nigeria's development? Nigeria's central bank fine...

01-18
35:54

Bold Statements

Nigeria's poor road infrastructure poses a significant economic burden, costing the country billions of naira annually in lost productivity and resources. SBM recently surveyed 245 commercial drivers across eight major hubs, and we saw widespread dissatisfaction with road conditions. We talk about the report. Landmark Africa, known for the Landmark Beach Resort in Lagos, plans to relocate its Nigerian headquarters and expand its operations following the April 2024 demolition of its iconic re...

01-11
24:15

K-legs

This week in Nigeria, the Central Bank of Nigeria fined Moniepoint and OPay ₦1 billion ($578,000) each in Q2 2024 for compliance violations, adding to its regulatory clampdown. Are these measures necessary for financial stability, or could they hinder fintech innovation? Meanwhile, the country recorded a ₦5.81 trillion trade surplus in Q3 2024, with exports surging 98% from last year. While this marks eight consecutive positive quarters, the surplus dipped compared to Q2. Can Nigeria maintai...

12-14
48:13

Trigger-nometry

After being idle for a couple of decades, the 59-year-old Port Harcourt Refinery suddenly resumed operations. With an initial production capacity of 60,000 barrels per day, this marks a major step in reducing Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel. How quickly will this impact fuel supply and stabilize the domestic market? The National Bureau of Statistics reported that Nigeria’s economy grew by 3.46% in Q3 2024, up from 3.19% in Q2 driven by a strong services sector and improved oil producti...

11-30
42:22

Wave of change

On November 21, Simon Ekpa, a dual citizen of Nigeria and Finland and self-proclaimed IPOB leader, was arrested in Finland on terrorism-related charges. Accused of using social media to incite violence in Nigeria, his arrest highlights the impact of online rhetoric. How will this affect separatist activities in southeastern Nigeria? Meanwhile, Nigeria’s National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu visited Chad’s President Idriss Déby to strengthen ties against jihadist groups following Deby's threa...

11-23
36:54

Whiplash

We start with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s upcoming visit to Nigeria, the first by an Indian PM in 17 years. With over $27 billion in Indian investments in Nigeria, what is the potential to expand trade and cooperation? Will this historic visit deepen Nigeria-India ties? Next, Nigeria’s economic woes are mounting. Manufacturers report ₦1.24 trillion in unsold inventory, a 357.6% spike from last year, while cable TV provider Multichoice lost 243,000 subscribers due to rising costs. H...

11-16
32:15

On a financial edge

We begin in Southern Africa, where Botswana is undergoing a historic political shift. After 58 years of Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) rule, the country has elected opposition candidate Duma Boko of the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) as its new president. What are the implications of his victory for Botswana's future? What are the broader political impact of the UDC's parliamentary win? In Nigeria, 32 out of Nigeria's 36 states rely on federal allocations for over 55% of their revenue...

11-09
33:00

In the balance

We begin in Ghana, where Islamist militants from Burkina Faso are allegedly using northern Ghana for supplies and medical support, despite denials from Ghanaian authorities. Is Ghana at risk of becoming a safe haven for insurgents? How might this impact regional security? In Nigeria, terrorists have reportedly overtaken the Nagwamase Military Cantonment in Niger State, displacing over 20 communities. How will this security breach affect local stability, and what does it say about Nigeria’s c...

11-02
30:06

Hard-pressed

Nigeria's government has proposed a 5% excise duty on telecom services, gaming, and betting as part of a new tax reform bill. How will this new tax burden affect consumers and businesses, and what could it mean for Nigeria’s digital economy? Next, the Dangote Refinery missed its petrol supply targets, delivering only 148 million litres instead of 575 million litres between mid-September and early October. How would this affect fuel availability and prices in the coming months? Finally, Jumi...

10-26
22:04

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