This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler

A destabilised Europe faces a stark choice, now more urgent since Trump’s victory. Make urgent preparations for a shooting war with Russia on our own territory – or prepare to lose that war, with all the terrifying consequences. That’s the argument of Keir Giles, author of Who Will Defend Europe? and senior consulting fellow of Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia Programme. He talks to Gavin Esler about the scale of the challenge, the damage done by European governments’ shortsightedness about the Kremlin’s escalating provocations, and why the advent of another Trump Presidency is more than a wake-up call. • “These are decisions that should have been taken years and decades ago. They should not have taken the threat of a Trump to push them to into action.” • “Russia has been at war with us in every domain except open military conflict for over a decade now.” • Twitter refugee? Follow TINAD, Gavin Esler and Keir Giles on BlueSky. • Buy Who Will Defend Europe? through our affiliate bookshop and you’ll help fund TINAD by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too. • Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Audio production by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

President Zelenskyy’s attack into the Russian-occupied Kursk region of Ukraine was audacious and unexpected. But with Ukrainian resources stretched thin after three years of fighting – and with thousands of North Korean troops arriving in Russia to reinvigorate Putin’s war effort – is it working? Will the alliance between Putin and fellow dictator Kim Jong-Un make a dire conflict worse? And with the result of the US election uncertain, will Western allies finally provide the support Ukraine needs to defeat Russia? Oz Katerji talks to independent foreign policy and security analyst Jimmy Rushton in Kyiv about reporting from the front lines and the prospects for Ukraine, and wider Europe, as the full-scale war approaches the end of its third year. Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more.  Written and presented by Oz Katerji. Audio production by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Corruption, bribery and cronyism aren’t just criminal matters. International alliances of corrupt states and their enablers are undermining democracies and international law, creating a world without rules where everything and anyone can be bought. From Putin’s gangster state to COVID corruption and favouritism in the UK, the West’s response has been feeble. Is Kleptocracy the real threat to global stability? Emma Beals explores an existential danger with anti-corruption writer Sarah Chayes – author of Everybody Knows: Corruption in America – and Guardian investigations correspondent and author of Cuckooland: Where the Rich Own the Truth Tom Burgis. • “If Trump wins, more than ever US policy will be up for sale.” – Sarah Chayes • Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more. • When you buy books through our affiliate bookshop you’re helping fund This Is Not A Drill by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too. Written and presented by Emma Beals. Audio production by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Try the new science and psychology podcast Why? – from the producers of This Is Not A Drill. Why? is the podcast for curious minds. Every Thursday, presenter Emma Kennedy talks to experts and theorists to discover the science and psychology of why we are the way we are. In the first episode: Why do people join cults? Emma Kennedy talks to world-leading cult deprogrammer Rick Alan Ross and NXIVM cult survivor Sarah Edmondson to discover the strange allure of the cult mindset. Go here to hear the complete episode. Follow on your favourite podcast app so you never miss an episode. WHY? is presented by Emma Kennedy. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard. Audio production and theme music by Jade Bailey. Managing editor: Jacob Jarvis. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. Artwork by James Parrett. Additional music is from Artlist.io. WHY? is a Podmasters Production.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The transformation of China in the past quarter of a century has seen the nation become one of the world’s dominant powers alongside the United States.  At the centre of this changing global balance lies the future of Taiwan, both separated from and inextricably linked to China.  In the latest This Is Not A Drill, Gavin Esler asks what the Taiwan question tells us about the future of an ideological and economic rivalry, as China expert Kerry Brown discusses his new book The Taiwan Story, How A Small Island Will Dictate The Global Future.  And to find out how we got here, Oriana Skylar Mastro, fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University, discusses her book Upstart: How China Became A Great Power, to chart China’s economic explosion, growing military power and expanding global influence. Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. www.podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Big Tech’s innovations have remade every aspect of everyday life – but its libertarian-fuelled political side is darker. Elon Musk has repurposed X/Twitter as an active part of Trump’s re-election campaign, platforming far right agitators like Tucker Carlson, and spreading incendiary misinformation. Brazil is locked in a legal battle with Twitter over disinformation and Telegram co-founder Pavel Durov was arrested over allegations that his platform is open to criminal abuse.  Do governments need to rein in the Tech Titans? Is Big Tech undermining democracy?  Gavin Esler talks to Marietje Schaake, international policy director of Stanford’s Cyber Policy Center and author of The Tech Coup: How To Save Democracy from Silicon Valley, and Scott Bade, senior analyst, geo-technology at the Eurasia Group. Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. www.podmasters.co.uk  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

A year since Hamas’s attacks on Israel and the beginning of Israel’s devastation of Gaza, the conflict spills over to Lebanon – and brings Tel Aviv and Tehran into direct military confrontation. Gavin Esler explores hopes for a ceasefire and political resolution in the Middle East with diplomacy expert Randa Slim, and Dr H A Hellyer – scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for Peace and senior associate fellow of Britain’s Royal United Services Institute, RUSI. • Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more.  Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Audio production by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

After a week of drastic escalation in the conflict in the Middle East, what will come next? Recording on October 1st just as reports emerged from the US warning of the Iranian missile attack on Israel, Gavin Esler spoke to Professor Ali Ansari, founding director of the Institute of Iranian Studies at the University of St Andrews, to discuss Iran’s response to Israel’s attacks on Lebanon and the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not a Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. www.podmasters.co.uk  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Lebanon faces intensifying conflict after the deadly escalation in Israel’s rivalry with paramilitary group Hezbollah.  An increasing series of skirmishes between Hezbollah and Israel has occurred since tensions in the region exploded with Hamas’ attack on Israel in October 2023 and Israel’s subsequent bombing campaign in Gaza. Now Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has claimed Hezbollah has been ‘hit with a string of strikes it didn’t imagine’ - after a Mossad plot to rig Hezbollah pagers with explosives brought chaos to Lebanon. Israel has since stepped up aerial bombardment of Hezbollah targets in the country, with hundreds reported dead. What next for Lebanon, already scarred by decades of conflict? How will Hezbollah and its patron Iran respond? And can the US and allies rein in Netanyahu and find a route to a ceasefire? Gavin Esler discusses the latest from the region with Gregg Carlstom, Middle East correspondent at The Economist. Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Assistant producer Eliza Davis Beard. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. www.podmasters.co.uk  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

After decades of treaties and diplomacy curbing fears over the use of nuclear weaponry, does today’s conflicted world surface the threat of a new nuclear age? Following the brinkmanship of the Cold War, an era of non-proliferation saw stockpiles of weapons cut dramatically. Yet concerns grow that nuclear arsenals may expand again. Gavin Esler discusses a potential new arms race with Ankit Panda, Stanton senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and hears about the history of non-proliferation from Hans Kristensen, Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists. Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this.    Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn and Eliza Davis Beard. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production.   www.podmasters.co.uk  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What does it take to get rid of a dictator? How do these tyrannical figures cling onto power - and how does this power warp their decision-making? Can they ever know when someone is telling them the truth, when everyone around them lives in fear? To find out, Gavin Esler speaks to Marcel Dirsus, whose new book How Tyrants Fall: And How Nations Survive serves as a guide on how to depose the despots.     Buy How Tyrants Fall through our affiliate bookshop and you’ll help fund This Is Not A Drill by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too. Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this.    Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn and Eliza Davis Beard. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Artificial Intelligence is continuing to develop whether we like it or not. But how will it affect our lives, and what should we make of the endless doom-laden scenarios suggesting humans are about to be rendered obsolete by machines? How scared should we all be about A.I., and does it offer more opportunities, or potential dangers?  Gavin Esler discusses the benefits and risks of A.I. with Robert Trager, co-director of the Oxford Martin AI Governance Initiative, and Shannon Vallor, Baillie Gifford Chair in the Ethics of Data and Artificial Intelligence at the Edinburgh Futures Institute. • Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more.  Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Assistant Producer Eliza Davis Beard. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Recent deadly missile exchanges are the largest escalation between Israel and the Lebanon-based Islamist paramilitary group Hezbollah since the outbreak of the war in Gaza. Many fear it’s a precursor to a wider conflict which could engulf the region. But is it all brinkmanship? Can diplomacy head off an Israeli-Hezbollah conflict, and a potentially catastrophic regional face-off between Israel and Hezbollah’s patrons in Iran? Oz Katerji discusses the history and motives of Hezbollah with Lebanese political commentator Ronnie Chatah, and talks Iran and its regime’s foreign policy with Arash Azizi, historian and author of the recent book What Iranians Want.  Go to http://incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan with Incogni • Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more.  Written and presented by Oz Katerji. Audio production by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Climate change doesn’t just mean dire consequences for food, water, human migration and long-term human survival. As the seas heat up they create critical security issues, from impacts on military sonar to spikes in turbulence threatening commercial flights, from new theatres of war to suddenly fragile states and strengthened terrorist groups. Are we ignoring a new source of global instability?  Emma Beals talks to New Scientist’s environment reporter Madeleine Cuff about why the oceans are warming and where – and asks Pentagon advisor, strategist and Polar Institute fellow Sherri Goodman about why hotter, more dangerous seas are a “threat multiplier”.  • Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more.  Got to incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan with Incogni. Written and presented by Emma Beals. Audio production by Robin Leeburn and Tom Taylor. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The course of the war in Ukraine changed dramatically on Tuesday 6th August when Ukraine launched an unprecedented incursion on Russian territory. The Kursk Offensive took Moscow entirely by surprise, with thousands of Ukrainian troops moving into the region – taking control of villages – and claiming 1,000 square kilometres of Russian territory. What does this sudden move to the offensive by Zelenskyy mean? What can Ukraine achieve – and how does the attack change the dynamic of the war? Oz Katerji finds out from Ukraine security expert Maria Avdeeva, Research Director at the European Expert Association. Got to incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan with Incogni • Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Oz Katerji. Produced by Eliza Beard Davis. Audio production by Tom Taylor. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production   podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Russia is the most sanctioned country in the world. The Ukraine war might have left her internationally isolated and starved of resources – but Putin and his oligarch court are adept at avoiding financial restrictions, cutting side deals that enable them to fund the war and protect their power. Are the West’s sanctions working? How can we tighten them? Is there really any difference between sanctions evasion and international criminal money laundering? And who are Putin’s true allies? Gavin Esler finds out from Maria Shagina – Senior Research Fellow for Economic Sanctions, Standards and Strategy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies – and Ian Garner of Poland’s Pilecki Institute, author of Z Generation: Into the Heart of Russia’s Fascist Youth. • Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The days of Western economic, cultural and military dominance are fading. China’s influence and military assertiveness are growing. Rising economies like Brazil, Indonesia and India are increasing powerful. What will the world look like when the West doesn’t write the rules any more? Gavin Esler talks to former UK diplomat Samir Puri about his book Westlessness: The Great Global Rebalancing, and with Tufts University Professor of International Politics Dan Drezner about America’s foreign policy crossroads. • Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more.  Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The existential threats to world stability are working together. Autocrats in Moscow, Beijing, Tehran and Pyongyang are moving in concert with both their clients and fellow travellers in Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Myanmar, Belarus and other despotisms. United not by ideology but by a love of repression, wealth and power, these new tyrants strike deals to consolidate their control and threaten their shared enemy: us. What does this League Against The Nations want? And how can we combat it? Pulitzer-winning author and historian Anne Applebaum talks to Gavin Esler about her new book Autocracy, Inc: The Dictators Who Want to Run the World.  • “Putin began his career by stealing money from St Petersburg, laundering it and bringing it back… His path to power came through Western financial institutions.” • “It’s one thing to fight a dictator with a bunch of soldiers in his palace. It’s another to fight one who has billions to buy the latest technology – or just bribe people.”  • “Putin developed a scorn for the West. ‘You let me steal, you’re corrupt.’ And the conviction that the West is corrupt feeds into modern autocracy.”  • “The kleptocracy comes first. The autocracy follows.”  • Incogni keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – Go to Incogni.com/thebunker to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan. • Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more.  Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The US is currently suffering a crisis in democracy, and its effects are far-reaching. But how does it relate to the global rise in authoritarianism and conflict? In the wake of compounding concerns created by the recent Supreme Court immunity decision and increasing calls for Joe Biden to step down from the Presidential nomination due to his age, This Is Not A Drill assesses the stakes at play for global security.  America is in turmoil after the assassination attempt against Donald Trump. But worrying developments – from a Supreme Court decision that conceivably puts the US President above the law, to the Democrats’ paralysis in the face of Biden’s declining powers – point to a deeper crisis. If America can’t function as a democracy, where does that leave the peace and stability of the world?  Emma Beals speaks to former U.S. Director of Policy Planning Richard Haass and former Foreign Policy Advisor to Bernie Sanders Matt Duss to explore whether the greatest threat to American democracy is no longer Donald Trump, but comes from within the Democratic Party itself.  Incogni keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – Go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan. Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this.    Written and presented by Emma Beals. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Assistant produced by Eliza Davis Beard. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production.   www.podmasters.co.uk  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Europe’s most powerful countries are in political crisis. Emmanuelle Macron’s big gamble to halt the progress of Marine le Pen’s Rassemblement National seems to have paid off – for now. But Germany’s far right Alternative für Deutschland continues to eat into the national vote and the country’s post-war consensus. What does the rise of extremists who are soft on Putin, or even pro-Russia, mean for the safety of Europe? Gavin Esler asks Economist Paris bureau chief Sophie Pedder about France’s close shave with extreme nationalism, and whether that escape is temporary. And director of eurointelligence.com and New Statesman columnist Wolfgang Munchau explains what’s driving Germany’s dance with the far right. Incogni keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – Go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices