This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler

The climate emergency is more urgent than ever, yet powerful interests are still pushing back on solutions and peddling climate denial. From fossil fuel giants to populist governments and greedy online grifters, they sow doubts about four decades of research and undermine a hard-won global political consensus.  Who are the Climate Con-Men and how are they succeeding? Gavin Esler talks to Jennie King, Director of Climate Disinformation Research and Policy at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue, about their techniques of deceit, distrust and disinformation – and to James Murray of environmental news service BusinessGreen to find out how the world can unite to tackle the climate crisis. • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan. • Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. www.podmasters.co.uk  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Assad’s stunning fall ends a tyrannical 53-year rule in Syria, leaving monstrous crimes against human rights exposed, rocking both Iran and Russia on their heels, and handing the country’s future back to its people. Where next for Syria? Will the rebel fighters coalesce into a working government and avoid the factionalism which would jeopardise the Syrian people’s hopes? And what does it mean for an international community which had turned its back on the Syrian war? Emma Beals explores an awe-inspiring week in the Middle East with Syria expert and open-source investigator Suhail al-Ghazi.  • No Longer on Twitter? Follow TINAD and Emma Beals on BlueSky.  • Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more.  Written and presented by Emma Beals. Audio production by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

• Give or get 20% off a year’s Patreon backing for TINAD in our Black Friday sale. This year marks a decade since ISIS hit the headlines with their dramatic rise to power in Iraq. It would be easy now to think it is a thing of the past. But in 2024 the group is having a resurgence in Syria, has a presence across Africa, and has morphed into a worldwide operation.  With multiple wars and a new phase of global disorder upon us, has the West forgotten about countering the threat of ISIS? Emma Beals assesses the state of ISIS worldwide and the foreign policy response to its continued threat with Charles Lister, director of the Syria and Countering Terrorism & Extremism programs at the Middle East Institute, and discusses their presence in Africa with Ryan O’Farrell, senior analyst at the Bridgeway Foundation and the co-author of The Islamic State in Africa: The Emergence, Evolution, and Future of the Next Jihadist Battlefront. This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan. Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Emma Beals. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. www.podmasters.co.uk  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

• Give or get 20% off a year’s Patreon backing for TINAD in our Black Friday sale. Donald Trump’s talk of boosted tariffs has sparked concerns of a major trade war with America’s rivals. The Chinese government has responded that “no one will win a trade war” and with economists warning that tariffs are liable to increase inflation, who will be the losers of Trump’s trade policies? And how would tariffs affect global relations in an already unstable world?  To discuss the potential economic and geopolitical impacts of Trump’s tariffs, Gavin Esler talks to US-China trade expert Professor Mary Lovely, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, and trade economist Dr Rebecca Harding, senior fellow at the British Foreign Policy Group. This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan. Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. www.podmasters.co.uk  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

• Give or get 20% off a year’s Patreon backing for TINAD in our Black Friday sale. Donald Trump operates in a zero sum world. If he’s going to win, you have to lose. So what will his brutal negotiation methods mean for global diplomatic corps who are already rocked by our turbulent times?  Trump is promising an immediate end to the war in Ukraine and threatening global tariffs on US imports, ranging up to 60% on goods from China. Trade wars and worldwide economic dislocation loom. What can leaders do to plan and prepare for his return to power? Gavin Esler talks to Peter Ricketts – retired senior diplomat, crossbench peer, former UK National Security Adviser and former chair of the UK Joint Intelligence Committee – about the global impact of Trump 2.0.  • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan. • Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. www.podmasters.co.uk  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

• Give or get 20% off a year’s Patreon backing for TINAD in our Black Friday sale. A destabilised Europe faces a stark choice, now more urgent since Trump’s victory. Make urgent preparations for a shooting war with Russia on our own territory – or prepare to lose that war, with all the terrifying consequences. That’s the argument of Keir Giles, author of Who Will Defend Europe? and senior consulting fellow of Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia Programme. He talks to Gavin Esler about the scale of the challenge, the damage done by European governments’ shortsightedness about the Kremlin’s escalating provocations, and why the advent of another Trump Presidency is more than a wake-up call. • “These are decisions that should have been taken years and decades ago. They should not have taken the threat of a Trump to push them to into action.” • “Russia has been at war with us in every domain except open military conflict for over a decade now.” • Twitter refugee? Follow TINAD, Gavin Esler and Keir Giles on BlueSky. • Buy Who Will Defend Europe? through our affiliate bookshop and you’ll help fund TINAD by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too. • Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more. Incogni keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – Go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Audio production by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

President Zelenskyy’s attack into the Russian-occupied Kursk region of Ukraine was audacious and unexpected. But with Ukrainian resources stretched thin after three years of fighting – and with thousands of North Korean troops arriving in Russia to reinvigorate Putin’s war effort – is it working? Will the alliance between Putin and fellow dictator Kim Jong-Un make a dire conflict worse? And with the result of the US election uncertain, will Western allies finally provide the support Ukraine needs to defeat Russia? Oz Katerji talks to independent foreign policy and security analyst Jimmy Rushton in Kyiv about reporting from the front lines and the prospects for Ukraine, and wider Europe, as the full-scale war approaches the end of its third year. Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more.  Written and presented by Oz Katerji. Audio production by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Corruption, bribery and cronyism aren’t just criminal matters. International alliances of corrupt states and their enablers are undermining democracies and international law, creating a world without rules where everything and anyone can be bought. From Putin’s gangster state to COVID corruption and favouritism in the UK, the West’s response has been feeble. Is Kleptocracy the real threat to global stability? Emma Beals explores an existential danger with anti-corruption writer Sarah Chayes – author of Everybody Knows: Corruption in America – and Guardian investigations correspondent and author of Cuckooland: Where the Rich Own the Truth Tom Burgis. • “If Trump wins, more than ever US policy will be up for sale.” – Sarah Chayes • Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more. • When you buy books through our affiliate bookshop you’re helping fund This Is Not A Drill by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too. Written and presented by Emma Beals. Audio production by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Try the new science and psychology podcast Why? – from the producers of This Is Not A Drill. Why? is the podcast for curious minds. Every Thursday, presenter Emma Kennedy talks to experts and theorists to discover the science and psychology of why we are the way we are. In the first episode: Why do people join cults? Emma Kennedy talks to world-leading cult deprogrammer Rick Alan Ross and NXIVM cult survivor Sarah Edmondson to discover the strange allure of the cult mindset. Go here to hear the complete episode. Follow on your favourite podcast app so you never miss an episode. WHY? is presented by Emma Kennedy. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard. Audio production and theme music by Jade Bailey. Managing editor: Jacob Jarvis. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. Artwork by James Parrett. Additional music is from Artlist.io. WHY? is a Podmasters Production.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The transformation of China in the past quarter of a century has seen the nation become one of the world’s dominant powers alongside the United States.  At the centre of this changing global balance lies the future of Taiwan, both separated from and inextricably linked to China.  In the latest This Is Not A Drill, Gavin Esler asks what the Taiwan question tells us about the future of an ideological and economic rivalry, as China expert Kerry Brown discusses his new book The Taiwan Story, How A Small Island Will Dictate The Global Future.  And to find out how we got here, Oriana Skylar Mastro, fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University, discusses her book Upstart: How China Became A Great Power, to chart China’s economic explosion, growing military power and expanding global influence. Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. www.podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Big Tech’s innovations have remade every aspect of everyday life – but its libertarian-fuelled political side is darker. Elon Musk has repurposed X/Twitter as an active part of Trump’s re-election campaign, platforming far right agitators like Tucker Carlson, and spreading incendiary misinformation. Brazil is locked in a legal battle with Twitter over disinformation and Telegram co-founder Pavel Durov was arrested over allegations that his platform is open to criminal abuse.  Do governments need to rein in the Tech Titans? Is Big Tech undermining democracy?  Gavin Esler talks to Marietje Schaake, international policy director of Stanford’s Cyber Policy Center and author of The Tech Coup: How To Save Democracy from Silicon Valley, and Scott Bade, senior analyst, geo-technology at the Eurasia Group. Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. www.podmasters.co.uk  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

A year since Hamas’s attacks on Israel and the beginning of Israel’s devastation of Gaza, the conflict spills over to Lebanon – and brings Tel Aviv and Tehran into direct military confrontation. Gavin Esler explores hopes for a ceasefire and political resolution in the Middle East with diplomacy expert Randa Slim, and Dr H A Hellyer – scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for Peace and senior associate fellow of Britain’s Royal United Services Institute, RUSI. • Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more.  Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Audio production by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

After a week of drastic escalation in the conflict in the Middle East, what will come next? Recording on October 1st just as reports emerged from the US warning of the Iranian missile attack on Israel, Gavin Esler spoke to Professor Ali Ansari, founding director of the Institute of Iranian Studies at the University of St Andrews, to discuss Iran’s response to Israel’s attacks on Lebanon and the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not a Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. www.podmasters.co.uk  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Lebanon faces intensifying conflict after the deadly escalation in Israel’s rivalry with paramilitary group Hezbollah.  An increasing series of skirmishes between Hezbollah and Israel has occurred since tensions in the region exploded with Hamas’ attack on Israel in October 2023 and Israel’s subsequent bombing campaign in Gaza. Now Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has claimed Hezbollah has been ‘hit with a string of strikes it didn’t imagine’ - after a Mossad plot to rig Hezbollah pagers with explosives brought chaos to Lebanon. Israel has since stepped up aerial bombardment of Hezbollah targets in the country, with hundreds reported dead. What next for Lebanon, already scarred by decades of conflict? How will Hezbollah and its patron Iran respond? And can the US and allies rein in Netanyahu and find a route to a ceasefire? Gavin Esler discusses the latest from the region with Gregg Carlstom, Middle East correspondent at The Economist. Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Assistant producer Eliza Davis Beard. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. www.podmasters.co.uk  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

After decades of treaties and diplomacy curbing fears over the use of nuclear weaponry, does today’s conflicted world surface the threat of a new nuclear age? Following the brinkmanship of the Cold War, an era of non-proliferation saw stockpiles of weapons cut dramatically. Yet concerns grow that nuclear arsenals may expand again. Gavin Esler discusses a potential new arms race with Ankit Panda, Stanton senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and hears about the history of non-proliferation from Hans Kristensen, Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists. Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this.    Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn and Eliza Davis Beard. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production.   www.podmasters.co.uk  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What does it take to get rid of a dictator? How do these tyrannical figures cling onto power - and how does this power warp their decision-making? Can they ever know when someone is telling them the truth, when everyone around them lives in fear? To find out, Gavin Esler speaks to Marcel Dirsus, whose new book How Tyrants Fall: And How Nations Survive serves as a guide on how to depose the despots.     Buy How Tyrants Fall through our affiliate bookshop and you’ll help fund This Is Not A Drill by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too. Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this.    Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn and Eliza Davis Beard. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Artificial Intelligence is continuing to develop whether we like it or not. But how will it affect our lives, and what should we make of the endless doom-laden scenarios suggesting humans are about to be rendered obsolete by machines? How scared should we all be about A.I., and does it offer more opportunities, or potential dangers?  Gavin Esler discusses the benefits and risks of A.I. with Robert Trager, co-director of the Oxford Martin AI Governance Initiative, and Shannon Vallor, Baillie Gifford Chair in the Ethics of Data and Artificial Intelligence at the Edinburgh Futures Institute. • Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more.  Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Assistant Producer Eliza Davis Beard. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Recent deadly missile exchanges are the largest escalation between Israel and the Lebanon-based Islamist paramilitary group Hezbollah since the outbreak of the war in Gaza. Many fear it’s a precursor to a wider conflict which could engulf the region. But is it all brinkmanship? Can diplomacy head off an Israeli-Hezbollah conflict, and a potentially catastrophic regional face-off between Israel and Hezbollah’s patrons in Iran? Oz Katerji discusses the history and motives of Hezbollah with Lebanese political commentator Ronnie Chatah, and talks Iran and its regime’s foreign policy with Arash Azizi, historian and author of the recent book What Iranians Want.  Go to http://incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan with Incogni • Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more.  Written and presented by Oz Katerji. Audio production by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Climate change doesn’t just mean dire consequences for food, water, human migration and long-term human survival. As the seas heat up they create critical security issues, from impacts on military sonar to spikes in turbulence threatening commercial flights, from new theatres of war to suddenly fragile states and strengthened terrorist groups. Are we ignoring a new source of global instability?  Emma Beals talks to New Scientist’s environment reporter Madeleine Cuff about why the oceans are warming and where – and asks Pentagon advisor, strategist and Polar Institute fellow Sherri Goodman about why hotter, more dangerous seas are a “threat multiplier”.  • Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more.  Got to incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan with Incogni. Written and presented by Emma Beals. Audio production by Robin Leeburn and Tom Taylor. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The course of the war in Ukraine changed dramatically on Tuesday 6th August when Ukraine launched an unprecedented incursion on Russian territory. The Kursk Offensive took Moscow entirely by surprise, with thousands of Ukrainian troops moving into the region – taking control of villages – and claiming 1,000 square kilometres of Russian territory. What does this sudden move to the offensive by Zelenskyy mean? What can Ukraine achieve – and how does the attack change the dynamic of the war? Oz Katerji finds out from Ukraine security expert Maria Avdeeva, Research Director at the European Expert Association. Got to incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan with Incogni • Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Oz Katerji. Produced by Eliza Beard Davis. Audio production by Tom Taylor. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production   podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices