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Actionable insights on building wealth from the top experts in money & the markets
Hosted by Adam Taggart
Hosted by Adam Taggart
263 Episodes
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Recession fears seem to have faded from the headlines, as the "no landing" scenario seems to have won out -- on Wall Street at least.
Attention is much more focused on a possible boost to economic growth from the policies of the new Trump administration, as well as concern that inflation could prove stickier and more stubborn to tame than the Fed hopes, resulting in higher for longer bond yields.
So, were the deflationists wrong?
For a true expert's view, we have the great fortune to sit down today with one of the greatest living economists, Dr. Lacy Hunt, former Senior Economist to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, as well as several of the world's largest global banks. He now serves as Executive Vice President and Chief Economist of Hoisington Investment Management Company.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
1When today's guest was on this program back in September, he predicted the market would start to become more volatile.
He didn't necessarily think that would mean lower stock prices into the end of 2024. And he was proven correct.
But he did express worry that as we entered 2025, continued higher volatility could start to become a problem for investors.
Does he still think that?
To find out, we welcome back to the program Cem Karsan, Founder, CIO, and Managing Principal of Kai Volatility Advisors, widely known as @jam_croissant on X/Twitter.
Follow Cem at https://www.kaivolatility.com/ and http://kaiwealh.com/and https://kai-nexus.com/
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
Charles Hugh Smith joins me to explain DeepSeek and what it's potential significance is
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On this channel we conduct deep-dive discussions with hundreds of experts a year, doing our best to see through their eyes and chart a wise course through the economic waters ahead.
But with all the different approaches, opinions and conclusions, it's important to remind ourselves not to overcomplicate things.
The fundamentals to wealth building aren't rocket science.
And for most non-professional investors, keeping it simple, consistent and disciplined makes success more attainable.
In fact, today's guest claims that everything the average investor needs to know can fit on a standard index card.
So what's on that card? We'll ask the man himself.
Today we'll talk with Harold Pollack, University of Chicago Professor and co-author of the best-seller The Index Card: Why Personal Finance Doesn't Have to Be Complicated
Folks if you have children in college or starting out in life, this may be a particularly valuable discussion for them to hear.
Portfolio manager Lance Roberts warns that corporate earnings expectations are likely unrealistic, and that one Wall Street realizes this, stock prices will have to come down.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
In his previous appearances on this channel, Michael Howell, founder & CEO of Crossborder Capital, has explained that rising net liquidity been largely responsible for the surprisingly strong performance seen in both the economy & the financial markets over the past 2 years.
Will the good times continue into 2025?
Don't count on it, Michael says.
To find out why, we'll sit down today with the man himself.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
One of the great David Bowie's most popular songs was titled "Changes"
Today's guest David Hay, Chief Investment Officer & Principal at Evergreen Gavekal, might well steal that title for his expected theme of 2025
He sees headwinds that could cause the economy to grow slower than many currently expect.
He sees the prices of stocks and bonds at risk. The Fed increasingly behind the curve, the dollar potentially reversing, and lots of uncertainty to soon ensue as the Trump Administration starts to deploy its disruptive policies.
He'll walk us through charts of all that and more today.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
Stephanie Pomboy shares her latest outlook on inflation.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
The winds of change are blowing around the globe.
74 countries representing half of the world's population held national elections last year.
Many of them -- including the US -- saw a replacement of the ruling incumbent by the opposition, often one promising a more nationalistic agenda.
With so many new leaders and their accompanying new policies, what is the outlook for the global economy and financial markets in 2025?
To discuss, we have the great fortune of speaking today with Richard Koo, Chief Economist at the Nomura Research Institute as well as author of numerous best-selling books on economics.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
Portfolio manager Lance Roberts lays out the odds for where stocks are headed next.
We also discuss the rising bond term premium & what it means, the risk of a large market drawdown in 2025, Lance fir'sm latest trades and the benefits of using time to your advantage in both investing & life.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
Darius Dale, founder & CEO of 42 Macro, has had a remarkably impressive track record in correctly forecasting the markets over recent years.
Having turned bullish near the end of 2022, he remained so ever since, helping his subscribers successfully ride the wave of ferocious back-to-back annual returns of over 20%+ in stocks.
He also helped them catch Bitcoin's price doubling over the past several months.
So, here at the start of 2025, where does his model seeing markets going next?
Should we expect more of the same?
Or is a trend change in store?
Well, after being "ragingly bullish" for the past 2 years, Darius now thinks there's good probability he will turn "ragingly bearish" at some point in 2025.
To find out why, watch this video.
Follow Darius' work at https://42macro.com/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=thoughtful_money&utm_content=jan_15
Despite the confidence Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is doing his best to project, inflation has not yet been slain.
And today's guest expert, Jim Bianco, founder of market research firm Bianco Research, thinks it's going to continue to prove problematic as the return of the "bond vigilantes" increasingly undermines the Fed's efforts.
We'll talk about his reasons why, as well as his concerns about the current extreme valuations in stocks, and why if they experience a material correction, bonds may not provide the protection to portfolios they did in the past.
Follow Jim at:
https://www.biancoresearch.com/
https://www.biancoadvisors.com/
https://www.youtube.com/@UCsHvbh9xvK12_1-A6GeY3qQ
https://x.com/biancoresearch
https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-bianco-117619152/
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
On this channel, we often highlight abnormalities we notice in the financial markets.
Today's guest actively embraces them as gifts from the investment gods.
In his words: "Fortunately, the financial markets are often quite inefficient, presenting opportunities for us to generate substantial value for our clients’ portfolios."
So, where are the biggest inefficiencies in markets today? And what opportunities are they presenting?
To find out, we have the great fortune to speak today with highly respected money manager Dave Iben, Chief Investment Officer, Managing Member, Founder, and Chairman of the Board of Kopernik Global Investors, as well as Portfolio Manager of its main funds. Kopernik manages $billions in client capital.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
The drivers that support economic growth and earnings are slowing down. And valuations are stretched to record extremes.
For these reasons, portfolio manager Lance Roberts is turning significantly more tactically bearish on stock this year.
This doesn't necessarily mean he expects an imminent crash.
But it does mean he expects stocks to put in a much more disappointing year than investors have become used to after back-to-back 20%+ annual returns.
We discuss his outlook in depth, as well as the new payrolls data, rising bond yields, why credit spreads remain so tight, and his firm's latest trades.
For everything that mattered to markets, watch this new Weekly Market Recap.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
Today's guest has long warned that the bond market will one day take the printing press away from the Federal Reserve.
Well, the Fed has now CUT its policy rate by 100 basis points since
September, but the yield on the 10 year US Treasury note is now 100 basis point HIGHER since then.
This has flummoxed many investors and mortgage holders. Yet it begs the question: is this the start of a bond market revolt against the Fed?
To find out, we're fortunate to welcome back to the program analyst Bill Fleckenstein of Fleckenstein Capital.
Bill predicts the bond market will keep falling until stocks tank.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
Well it's a new year. And in just two weeks, a new American Administration as well.
What kind of impact will President-Elect Trump's policies likely have on natural resources, the "real things" that power the global economy?
To find out, we're fortunate to be joined by Rick Rule, one of the world's greatest living natural resource investors, and a heck of a gentleman, to boot.
Rick sees a lot of opportunity for investors ahead in oil & gas.
But the real deals right now are in the gold mining companies, which he reports are the most undervalued he's seen in his long career.
Here are the links to Rick's events mentioned in this discussion:
https://thoughtfulmoney.com/rulebootcamp
https://thoughtfulmoney.com/rulesyndicate
A new bi-weekly show launches today on Thoughtful Money!
Macro & market analyst Stephanie Pomboy shares the latest investing trends that have her attention + takes live Q&A from the viewing audience
In today's discussion we look at the all-important energy market. Remember, without energy, there is no economy.
As we look to the future, where are global energy trends headed?
Which ones are we likely to turn to more to power the world of tomorrow?
And where are the best opportunities for investors likely to lie?
To discuss in depth, we're fortunate to sit down with the green chicken himself, the energy expert Doomberg.
SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
The stock market has seen two consecutive years of 20% returns.
Will it see similar returns this year?
Highly unlikely, cautions portfolio manager Lance Roberts.
Complacent bulls hoping for a repeat performance may well find themselves disappointed with 2025.
We discuss the reasons why, the latest market technicals, the potential impact of domestic terrorist acts could have on the financial markets, and Bob Farrell's Top 10 Investment Rules on today's program.
For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this Market Recap.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
As we begin a new year, I thought it appropriate to continue Thoughtful Money's ongoing commitment to highlighting the principles components of true wealth -- of which money is simply a means, not the end in itself.
Research tells us that true wealth is primarily a function of quality relationships, purpose & health.
And today, we're going to drill down deep into the purpose part of that equation.
How can we live with greater meaning?
How do we even identify what our purpose is?
There's actually an empirical process for answering these important questions, and we're fortunate to be able to learn about it today from Betsy Wills and Alex Ellison, co-authors of the book Your Hidden Genius: The Science-Backed Strategy to Uncovering and Harnessing Your Innate Talents
And for those looking to get started living with greater purpose, there are exciting testing services now available -- based on the aptitudes research of Johnson O'Connor, whom longtime listeners have heard me rave about -- that can help accelerate your progress in 2025.
I'm really looking forward to this discussion.
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IMO, Adam and Lance are hands down the best duo in the finance podcasting sector. Best free market reviews and assessment/forecast for average retail investors.
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gas is not oil. he sure could do with some self development
Adam, you can not have Mr Dale on without a link to his charts.