Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

When today's expert was last on this program back in March, he predicted we'll see sub-2% inflation AND a recession by the end of this year. Since then, headline CPI has remained stubbornly "sticky" above 3% So, is 2% (or less) inflation by December still his forecast? Or have conditions changed? To find out, we have the good fortune to sit down and get a full update today from Steve Hanke, professor of applied economics at the Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, Maryland WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #inflation #recession #federalreserve --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

I often emphasize that the most useful people to interview are asset managers. Because they don't have the luxury of merely having an opinion on the road ahead -- they have to commit capital to their convictions, and be judged upon the results. Today we have the great fortune of being joined by one of the most respected capital allocators in the business: Jan van Eck Jan is CEO of vanEck, an asset management firm with over $100 billion in assets under management invested across its wide family of ETFs and funds, spanning equity, bond, commodity, digital and regional asset classes. Jan and I will spend the next hour discussing his macro and market outlooks, as well as where he sees the biggest opportunities for investors right now. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

When Sven Henrich of NorthmanTrader.com was last on this program, he admitted he was a reluctant bull. He just wasn't seeing any material barriers that stood in the way of the ongoing bully rally in stocks at that time. At the end of our conversation, I asked him to come back on this program when his technical analysis tells him conditions have changed. Well, Sven just reached out last night, letting me know that he has closed out all his longs this week and moved to cash. Why? What has him so spooked? Let's ask the man himself. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #marketcorrection #technicalanalysis #tradingstrategy --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Well, portfolio manager Lance Roberts has been warning for a while now that stocks were materially overbought and due for a 5%+ correction. And it looks like that started this week, with the S&P selling off 3% over the past 3 trading days. Interestingly, it began with a massive flow of capital into small cap stocks, though that moderated a bit as the week progressed. Whether or not this is the beginning of a Great Rotation from Big Growth into Small Value remains to be seen. But more interesting to Lance is that credit spreads are starting to widen in lower-quality bonds. This is the first rumblings of concern we've seen in the part of the market that truly matters. Is a sleeping dragon awakening here? Lance and I discuss that as well as the likely economic implications of Trump's economic plan, whether the Fed will really cut rates in September, and Lance's firm's latest trades. For everything that mattered to markets, watch this Weekly Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #creditspreads #trumpeconomy #interestrates --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

There is a mechanical force that pushes asset prices higher as capital flows passively into the market every month. As more money flows in, it must be used to purchase assets, at whatever current price they're trading at. That valuation-insensitive purchasing results in higher and higher prices. Today's guest refers to this current system as the "giant mindless robot". And, in his view, has deformed our financial markets into a gargantuan ponzi scheme of unprecedented scale. One that someday must go bust, as all ponzis do. For all the details on this, we'll spend the next hour with Michael Green, portfolio manager & chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #stockmarket #assetbubble #ponzi --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

History is full of examples where nations resorted to taking on ever-increasing amounts of debt to maintain a positive economic growth rate. But it never works out well for those who do. Most often, they end up sacrificing the purchasing power of their currencies in the process. Many analysts are now raising such concerns about the fast growing national, corporate and consumer debt pile in the US and other G7 nations. Are we repeating the mistakes of history? Or is it truly different this time? To discuss, we're fortunate to welcome monetary and macro analyst John Rubino, author and co-author of numerous books including The Money Bubble with James Turk. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #debtcrisis #marketcorrection #recession --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testified in front of Congress this week to defend his current monetary policy. While we don't have the results of that testimony as of the time of this recording, Powell has recently stated that he is now seeing the kind of disinflationary path for the US economy that he's wanted to. This of course has Wall Street salivating again that rate cuts are near at hand. Are they? For perspective, we're fortunate today to talk with money manager Michael Pento, president of Pento Portfolio Strategies. Michael warns that we have the most overvalued stock market ever, and the liquidity that drove it to today's extremes is starting to run out. In his words "We're running on fumes". And stocks are at risk of correcting 30-80% from here. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bearmarket #marketcrash #marketcorrection --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Yes, Federal Reserve Jerome Powell is hoping he can cut rates soon. But it's less because he's proud he's won the inflation battle. It's more because he's afraid the Lag Effect from his "higher for longer" interest rates are starting to visibly damage the economy. Portfolio manager Michael Lebowitz stands in for Lance Roberts this week to talk about the Fed's unfolding scramble to get to rate cuts before the wheels come off. We're already seeing concerning signs: 1.5% (or less) GDP growth for 2024 so far, rising unemployment, runaway deficits and struggling consumers. Can the Fed ride to the rescue before the wheels come off? Michael and I discuss that, as well as everything that mattered to markets, in this week's Weekly Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #inflation #bonds #interestrates --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

The US economy appears to be slowing down. Final Q1 GDP growth came in at just 1.4% and, as of this recording, Q2 GDP is currently estimated to be little better, at 1.5%. Retail sales for May, the most recent data we have, only grew at 0.1%. And unemployment is starting to tick up, too, rising last week to 4.1%. Now, none of these stats are particularly worrisome on their own. But together, are they signalling rockier economic times could like ahead? To find out, we have the good fortunate to talk today with Dr Anna Wong, Chief U.S. Economist for Bloomberg Economics. Prior to her current role, Anna also worked at the Federal Reserve Board, the White House Council of Economics Advisers, and the U.S. Treasury. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #unemployment #jobs #recession --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Former Vice President Dick Cheney famously said "Reagan proved that deficits don't matter" True or not, running greater and greater federal budget deficits has become standard operating procedure for Washington DC. When Cheney uttered those words, the annual deficit was in the low hundreds of billions. It's projected to be $2 trillion this year. At that scale, today's guest expert would argue that deficits are indeed starting to matter, because the US is now increasingly challenged to service the debts and other associated liabilities that have accreted from all the years of rising deficit spending. In fact, he concludes we're on a collision course for a sovereign debt crisis, one that will take the purchasing power of the US dollar down with it. To find out why, and what can be done about it, we're fortunate to welcome Luke Gromen, founder of macro research firm FFTT, LLC, back to the program. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com Follow Luke at FFTT-LLC.com #volatility #marketcorrection #dollar --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

When I graduated from Stanford Business School 25 years ago, a classmate announced he was going to work for a hedge fund and the rest of us asked "What's that?" Fast forward two and a half decades and the financial markets are practically overrun by hedge funds collectively managing over $5 trillion dollars. And while certain hedge fund managers have become financial celebrities through dazzling returns in their best years, the industry is generally more better regarded as a modern version of Wall Street doing what it does best -- lining its pockets at the expense of others. Is this accurate? Or are there benefits the hedge fund model offers to markets, and perhaps even to the little guy? To find out, we're fortunate to talk today with Andrew Beer, co-founder and managing member of DBi, which seeks to put the strategies behind successful hedge funds into the hands of the retail investor. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #hedgefund #managedfutures #investing --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

There is a massive deviation between stock valuations and earnings growth: growth in the former is far outpacing the latter. This is unsustainable warns portfolio manager Lance Roberts. And unless economic growth suddenly surges (and no catalyst for that is on the radar), then asset prices will need to come down in order to bring the ratio back into balance. And with GDP growth coming in at1.4% in Q1 and currently at 1.7% (and slowing) here in Q2, asset price reduction indeed seems like the more probable outcome. In this video, Lance and I discuss this, as well as market technicals, whether the latest inflation & jobs data increase the odds for a near-term rate cut by the Fed, the importance of sentiment, the latest market technicals and Lance's recent trades. If you like the new studio background, it was created by Inspired Spaces Designs. They do great work and can be contacted through their website https://inspiredspacesdesign.com/ & their Instagram https://www.instagram.com/inspiredspacesinc/ WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #earnings #stockmarket #inflation --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Today's guest wrote the book "Inflated: How Money & Debt Built The American Dream" In it, he wrote: "The first rule of any fiat system is no fiscal deficit" Well, the US -- and virtually every other G7 country -- is breaking that rule six ways to Sunday given the unprecedented record levels of deficit spending currently underway. Does that mean we're headed for trouble? To find out, we'll ask the author himself, Chris Whalen, Chairman of Whalen Global Advisors LLC and expert on the banking, mortgage finance and fintech sectors. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #inflation #debt #bankingsystem --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

With so many recent interview guests on this channel expressing concern about the near-record levels of overvaluation AND narrow trading breadth in stocks, about slowing economic growth, a weakening consumer and rising recession risk, many of you viewers have been asking for a instructional video on how to protect your portfolios from market downside risk -- a process otherwise known as hedging. Well, your ask is our command. So in this video, the senior partners at New Harbor Financial, one of the financial advisory firms endorsed by Thoughtful Money, will walk us through the fundamentals of hedging using options. John Llodra and Mike Preston, along with their team at New Harbor, employ these options hedging strategies on a daily basis to protect the half a billion in client capital their firm manages. NOTE: This video is not personal financial advice! Before trading options on your own, Thoughtful Money HIGHLY recommends first gaining experience using them under the guidance of a professional financial advisor well-experienced with the techniques mentioned in this video. WORRIED ABOUT RISK? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #hedging #hedgingstrategy #options --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

I find myself frequently repeating the advice that in today's highly bifurcated economy, it's critical to understand the difference between the mean and the median in order to get a true picture of what's going on. And the housing market is no different. On the mean, or average, level, US home prices are at a record high. But in a growing number of markets, a number of them red-hot until recently, prices are down by double-digit percentages. And inventory is spiking. To make sense of the growing divergences and find out where prices are most likely headed from here, we're fortunate to welcome back to the program housing analyst Nick Gerli, founder of reventure Consulting and creator of the new reventure app. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #housingmarket #homeprices #housingcrash --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Today's stock market is like an iceberg, says portfolio manager Lance Roberts. We can see the surface, which looks fine. The Magnificent 7 stocks -- really now the Mag 5 -- are collectively growing market cap and profits, propping up the overall index. But if you look below the surface, at the bottom 90% of the iceberg, "things look terrible" warns Lance. We discuss why, as well any impact this week's presidential debate is likely to have on markets, For everything that mattered to markets, watch this week's Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #presidentialdebate #magnificent7 #investing --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

There's an old saying on Wall Street that "no one rings a bell at the market top" This is why so many surprised investors got so badly burned when the DotCom and 2008 stock bubbles burst. But those who noticed the extreme market conditions beforehand, whose analysis of history convinced them that defense was more prudent than fear of missing out, these few avoided most of the losses -- and some even gained mightily from those crashes, having been positioned wisely in advance. Today's guest is one of those who smartly navigated the past 2 great market corrections. He now thinks we stand at the precipice of a 3rd -- and he's ringing a bell for anyone who will listen. To hear why and what he advises we do about it, we have the great fortune to speak today with Dr John Hussman, founder of Hussman funds, economist, health scientist and philanthropist. He also plays a mean guitar. John gives interviews very rarely. So it's a true privilege for Thoughtful Money that he's willing to give us the next hour of his time. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com Follow John at https://www.hussmanfunds.com or on X/Twitter at @hussmanjp You can read John's recent Market Comment (and see all the charts) at https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc240623/ #marketcrash #stockbubble #investing --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

If you listen to the politicians and the headlines, you'll hear a lot of talk about the "strong consumer" who is keeping the economy happily chugging along. But when we hear from actual consumers themselves, we hear a very different story. The majority of households are struggling under the surge in their cost of living post-COVID. Many express despair that the American dream is now beyond their reach. For a detailed dive into this critical topic, we're fortunate today to speak with Joanne Hsu, director of the widely-followed University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey. The UMich data indeed shows that a growing majority of Americans are giving up hope they'll ever be able to afford a middle class lifestyle. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #consumersentiment #consumerconfidence #costofliving --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

The purchasing power of the world's major fiat currencies has taken a beating since the pandemic. Just in the US, due to the spike in inflation, Truflation now estimates that the dollar has lost over a quarter of its purchasing power since January 2020. Due to this higher inflation, as well as continued expectations for higher secular inflation over the coming years as globalization declines, nations reshore supply chains and increasingly compete for global commodities, some of which are due for supply shortages -- it's no surprise that more investors are looking increasing towards owning hard assets as a hedge. So what are the most important trends and opportunities in hard assets right now? To find out, we have the good fortune to talk with Rick Rule, perhaps the most seasoned & respected natural resources investor alive today. Register for Rick's upcoming Symposium on July 7-11, 2024 at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/rule WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #commodities #goldprice #inflation --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

With stocks still firmly in overbought territory and the uncertainty of the US presidential election nearing, portfolio manager Lance Roberts warns "We're due for a correction" He expects a 5-10% pullback in the near term. And perhaps a slightly larger drop leading up to November as Wall Street de-risks ahead of voting. Lance and Adam review the latest chart technicals, whether Japan’s Norinchukin Bank and it's announced liquidation of its US Treasury portfolio poses a risk to bond market, the dangers of private investing, and the worrying extent to just how far the S&P 500 is trading above historical valuation averages. For everything that mattered to markets, watch this week's Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #stockmarketcorrection #Norinchukin #marketcorrection --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support