Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

The Fed caught markets by surprise this week when it guided that the pace of future rate cuts will be slower than initially expected. Stocks sold off hard on the news and bond yields spiked. Friday saw some recovery, causing investors to wonder: Is a Santa Claus rally still likely? Or could a Grinch bust be in the cards now? Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss the odds, as well as the latest inflation data, his macro and market outlook for 2025, and his firm's latest trades. For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this new Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Today's guest expert is the second this week to warn that US financial asset prices appear to be in bubble territory. Is that truly the case? And if so, will the bubble burst in 2025? Or inflate further? Investors have much riding on the answer. To discuss, we welcome back to the program macro analyst Jesse Felder, founder & Editor of the respected market research firm: The Felder Report. Jesse has a number of charts of leading indicators that he walks us through that strong suggest stock prices will head lower - perhaps a lot lower - in 2025. Follow Jesse at his website at https://thefelderreport.com/ Or on X at @jessefelder WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Portfolio manager & Fed-watcher Axel Merk shares his immediate take-aways from this week's FOMC release and press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. He also takes live Q&A from viewers. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

As 2024 draws to a close, the mood on Wall Street is very jolly. Stocks are back to trading near all-time highs. Positive sentiment -- be it among investors, businesses or consumers -- is suddenly spiking. Is such exuberance merited? Should we expect the market's good times to continue rolling in 2025? Or, is the optimism overlooking risks -- both valuation-based and structural -- that may make next year a much more challenging one for investors? For answers, we turn to the experience and wisdom of financial advisor Ted Oakley, managing partner & founder of Oxbow Advisors. Ted has over 40 years experience helping clients, mostly high net worth families, protect and build wealth through good times and bad. We'll find out how he's currently positioning his clients assets for the coming year. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

I often emphasize that the most useful people to interview are asset managers. Because they don't have the luxury of merely having an opinion on the road ahead -- they have to commit capital to their convictions, and be judged upon the results. Today we have the great fortune of having the return appearance of one of the most respected capital allocators in the business: Jan van Eck Jan is CEO of vanEck, an asset management firm with over $100 billion in assets under management invested across its wide family of ETFs and funds, spanning equity, bond, commodity, digital and regional asset classes. As we've done the past two quarters, Jan and I will spend the next hour discussing his latest macro and market outlooks, as well as where he sees the biggest opportunities for investors right now. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Stocks have been choppy over recent weeks, as portfolio manager Lance Roberts predicted due to end-of-year rebalancing by the major Wall Street funds. Once that wave is over, does a Santa Claus rally still look likely to occur? Lance and I discuss the odds of this, as well as the recent inflation data, poor price action in bonds, market correction risk in 2025, and Lance's firm's latest trades. For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this new Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

As we prepare to enter a new year, there's a revived optimism on Wall Street. Excited in part by the pro-business policies of the incoming Trump administration, stocks are back to trading at record highs and investor and business confidence is rising. But that said, the average American household is still struggling under a high cost of living, and a labor market that does not seem as robust as we've been told. How will this dichotomy resolve in 2025? Will consumers eventually catch Wall Street's optimism? Or may stocks have to moderate its expectations for economic growth & corporate profits? For an expert view, we're lucky today to talk with Stephanie Pomboy, economic and market analysis and proprietor of MacroMavens.com. To watch the free 20-minute Q&A session from Stephanie's recent conference with Grant Williams, click the link below and then scroll down: https://www.grant-williams.com/super-terrific-happy-day-virtual-pass/ WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

As 2024 begins to draw to a close, investors are cheering a second blockbuster year in the stock market. And as we enter 2025, will the party continue? Will today's asset prices shrug off the growing litany of macro concerns and power still higher in the new year? Or will 2025 be a less enjoyable, or even a more painful year for investors? I can't think of anyone better to ask these questions to than today's expert, who is among the world's most highly respected living investors, Felix Zulauf. He thinks we'll be in for wild ride in 2025, with stocks peaking in Q1, then falling 15-120%, recovering possibly to new highs, and then ending the year with a serious drawdown. He believes his predicted "decade of the roller coaster" will enter full swing next year. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

As we head into a new year, there are a lot of questions swirling about money: Will the dollar's strength vs other world currencies continue into 2025? And even if so, will it continue to lose purchasing power vs real things? Will gold continue to be aggressively purchased by the world's central banks? By investors? Is Bitcoin "winning" the store of value war? To discuss all these and more, we're fortunate to welcome back to the program Brent Johnson, CEO & Portfolio Manager at Santiago Capital, and developer of the Dollar Milkshake Theory. Brent is "extra cautious" right now given Wall Street's exuberance. At these high levels of euphoria, he fears the 2025 market could look a lot like 2022 rough year. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Stocks are currently at record levels of euphoria as measured by the Euphoriaometer (yes, such a thing exists!) While he still expects a Santa Claus rally into year end, between now and then, portfolio manager Lance Roberts thinks there's good probability of a short-term pullback. We discuss the reasons for that, as well as current technical indicators for the S&P, market sentiment, the latest Payrolls data, the risk of a much larger market correction in 2025, as well as Lance's latest trades. For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bullmarket #marketcorrection #jobsreport --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Stocks are on track to end 2024 on a high note. The S&P is up roughly 27% so far, hitting new record highs all throughout the year. Will the party continue into the New Year? Or will 2025 be a less enjoyable one for investors? To find out, we're fortunate today to talk with money manager Michael Pento. president of Pento Portfolio Strategies. He maintains a 20-point model that guides his portfolio allocation, and today we'll hear what it's advising him to do right now. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Asset prices bubbles follow a predictable trajectory, driven by investor psychology. The final stage before the bursting is a Euphoric peak. The financial advisors at New Harbor Financial think we're on our way to such a blow-off top, but we're not quite there yet. They expect the action to get even more manic before we do. If Euphoria indeed arrives, prices will likely zoom to highs that just seem silly right now. Prepare yourself for this: you will not believe what your eyes are telling you. But also prepare for this peak to be very short-lived. Be very cautious about getting sucked in, because the gains will likely evaporate quickly once the downcycle begins. This is why bubbles are so destructive to so many people -- especially those who go "all in" at the top. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bullmarket #stockcrash #bubble --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

By many measures, stocks are richly valued. And by measures like the Buffett Indicator, they're the most overvalued they've EVER been. Does that strongly suggest a downwards market correction lies in store for 2025? Or is there a good reason that "this time is truly different" and a new bull era for stocks awaits? To discuss, we're fortunate to welcome to the program market analyst Henrik Zeberg, publisher of the Zeberg Report. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Credit spreads are about the tightest they've ever been in history. High yield (aka "junk") debt is priced at very low premium to US Treasury debt, the safest asset in the world That says the bond market is just not worried about risk. So either, "everything truly is awesome"...or the market is mis-pricing risk here, perhaps dangerously so. Whether or not that's the case, it's highly unlikely those expecting a material downwards market correction will see one until credit spreads start widening. Which is why monitoring them closely is such a high priority. Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss the importance of credit spreads, the new inflation & jobs data, bond yields, the latest technical analysis for stocks, as well as Lance's firm's recent trades. For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this Weekly Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #creditspreads #inflation #interestrates --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

The last time today's expert was on the program back in July, she was concerned about rising unemployment. Is she still as worried about it as we prepare to enter a new year with a new Administration taking over? To find out, we have the good fortune to talk today with Dr Anna Wong, Chief U.S. Economist for Bloomberg Economics. Prior to her current role, Anna also worked at the Federal Reserve Board, the White House Council of Economics Advisers, and the U.S. Treasury. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #unemployment #jobs #economy --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com Well, America has a new President-Elect with a very different economic plan than the departing administration's. What new policies should we expect when Donald Trump returns to the White House? And what ramifications should we expect for the US economy and financial markets? I can think of few better people to hear from on this topic than today's guest, who is one of the key economic advisors to President Elect Trump Today, we're fortunate to welcome back to the program economist Dr Arthur Laffer. He was the first to hold the title of Chief Economist at the Office of Management and Budget in the early 1970s. He then later served as a member of President Reagan's Economic Policy Advisory Board. He's perhaps best known for developing the Laffer curve, a model for determining the optimal balance between tax revenues and economic growth. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

SCHEDULE YOUR FREE YEAR END PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com At the end of every year, there’s a list of prudent steps to consider that can make a big positive difference to your financial prospects — but only if you take them before January 1st arrives. If 2024 was a good year to your portfolio, don’t fumble your success right at the goal line by failing to take the right measures. Or if your wealth goals didn’t go according to plan this year, then do everything you can to increase the odds for a better performance in 2025. From tax loss harvesting to portfolio rebalancing to maximizing your retirement contributions, there’s a substantial number of smart tactics you should look into taking now — while you still have time. A top challenge regular investors have with year-end planning is that it sneaks up on them. The winter holidays arrive before you know it and then…a lot of these steps just don’t get taken. Which is a shame, because a little prudent attention on these today can result in outsized benefits in the future. Another challenge is that many investors just simply don’t know the right year-end planning steps to take, or how to take them. In today's video, we sit down with Richard Rosso and Danny Ratliff, the financial planning experts at Real Investment Advice (Lance Roberts' firm) for a deep dive into these end-of-year best practices. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

While stocks have been choppy the 20 Day Moving Average has been acting as solid support. If it indeed holds and stocks rebound, the rising uptrend will remain intact and S&P 6200 becomes a real possibility by the end of December. That would indeed make for a jolly "Santa Claus rally". Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss the odds of this happening, as well as year end portfolio planning strategies, Bitcoin, the perverse incentive driving today's financial system, and Lance's firm's latest trades. For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this new Weekly Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

The markets are locked in a battle of dangerous extremes vs high complacency. Yes, there are many reasons to be concerned about today's record high valuations. But those concerns haven't mattered yet. And there's no guarantee they will on any relevant time frame to today's investors. And so the party in stocks continues on...for now. In today's interview, macro analyst Grant Williams discusses how we've reached this point: we debauched the value of money. And in doing so, we re-focused the goal of every company towards boosting the stock price, and away from creating sustainable value. How long can this continue before the markets reprice, downwards, to valuations that can be sustained by fundamentals? This is THE existential question facing investors today, Grant posits. Your financial well-bring will be determined by the choice you make here. For one of the more important discussions you'll hear on investing this year, watch this interview with the great Grant Williams. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Well, the Fed has now cut its benchmark interest rate 75 basis points, and yet mortgage rates have RISEN -- back up near 7% for the average 30-year fixed mortgage. This has NOT been good news for the housing market, which has been frozen transaction-wise at record levels of unaffordability for the majority of aspiring purchasers. It's been often asked on this program: How long can the housing market remain broken like this? Well, we may be finding out the answer to that. In a growing number of metros, inventory is rising (substantially in many cases), prices are coming down, and long-standing real estate barons are starting to break their cardinal rule to "never sell". Is this growing trickle of motivated sellers we're now seeing as more and more regional housing markets start to thaw likely to soon become a flood? For answers, we're fortunate to hear today from mortgage expert and housing analyst Melody Wright. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support