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Actionable insights on building wealth from the top experts in money & the markets
Hosted by Adam Taggart
Hosted by Adam Taggart
95 Episodes
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With the market now expecting less than 2 rate cuts this year -- perhaps none at all until next year according to Bank of America -- what does that mean for the economy?
Can it handle "higher for even longer" interest rates without slowing markedly?
Or, even worse, something systemic breaking?
And what impact will these higher rates likely have on stock, bonds and other asset prices?
To find out, we're fortunate today to talk with money manager Michael Pento. president of Pento Portfolio Strategies.
Michael is "not happy". He's very concerned that the crown jewel of our capitalist society, the middle class, is getting "destroyed". He sees nothing good coming from that.
And looking ahead, he sees a disinflationary recession happening in the second half of 2024, to be followed in early to mid-2025 by an era of stagflation more extreme than we've ever experienced.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#inflation #stagflation #recession
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
Stocks have sold off sharply since hitting all time highs just 3 weeks ago.
Bond prices are falling, too.
What's going on here?
Is this just a needed pullback to remove excessive froth before the market resumes rising to all-time highs?
Or is this a more significant reversal?
For a professional's perspective, we turn to John Llodra and Mike Preston, the lead partners at advisory firm New Harbor Financial.
Many of you already know that New Harbor is one of the financial advisory firms endorsed by Thoughtful Money.
To schedule a free consultation with them, fill out the short form at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#inflation #goldprice #marketcorrection
On the famous fear/greed index, after spending most of the past year and half in "greed", we've suddenly switched to "fear" over a very short time frame.
The S&P has broken below both its 20 and 50 Daily Moving Averages.
Inflation printed hotter than expected, making Wall Street start to doubt the Federal Reserve's ability to deliver expected rate cuts.
And geopolitical tensions have puckered tighter following the escalation of hostilities between Iran and Israel.
Is the exuberant sentiment that drove the past year's bull market now gone?
Or it is just taking a breather before continuing to climb what has suddenly become a much steeper Wall Of Worry?
For answers, we're fortunate to speak today with market veteran Kevin Muir, founder and editor of The Macro Tourist, the highly-acclaimed newsletter that currently ranks as the #12th largest financial Substack in the world.
Follow Kevin at https://themacrotourist.com/
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#marketcorrection #volatility #investing
Well, the relentless bull rally that began in November is over.
Stocks fell hard this week, with the S&P breaking below 5000 on Friday. It's now down nearly 300 points from its all-time hit, which it hit just 3 weeks ago.
How low is this pullback likely to go?
Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss just that in this week's Market Recap, as well as sticky inflation, rising bond yields, lackluster retail sales and the dangerous warning the NFIB data is sending about jobs.
And as usual, Lance shares the trades his firm made this week.
For everything that mattered to the market, watch this week's Market Recap.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#marketcorrection #bondyields #bearmarket
The headline economic data gives a comforting sense the economy is strong.
The media headlines tell us the consumer is "resilient"
But if you ask most Americans, they'll tell you they're struggling.
Last year, a Forbes Advisor survey revealed that nearly 70% of respondents either identified as living paycheck to paycheck (40%) or—even more concerning—reported that their income doesn’t even cover their standard expenses (29%).
So why is there such a big disconnect here?
For context, we're fortunate to talk today with Adam Kobeissi, publisher of the popular capital markets report, The Kobeissi Letter.
While Adam remains guardedly bullish in the near term, he thinks market risks are mounting and that investors need to prepare for "much larger swings to the downside" as the year progresses.
Follow Adam at https://www.thekobeissiletter.com/
Or on Twitter at @kobeissiletter
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#bullmarket #marketcorrection #jobs
This is a live Special Report with geopolitical expert Ryan Bohl, MidEast analyst for the RANE Network.
Given the serious nature of and confusion around the escalation of hostilities between Iran & Israel, I've brought Ryan on the program to ask him:
- The drivers of tension between Iran and Israel
- What led to this weekend's attack?
- What do you expect to happen from here?
- What impact is this conflict having on the global economy & financial markets?
- If things escalate, how concerned should those living in the West be?
- What will it take to de-escalate the situation?
Ryan takes live audience Q&A near the end of the interview
#israel #iran #worldwar3
The price of gold has experienced a breakout over the past month and a half.
What does that mean?
Is that a sign that investors are worried about higher inflation to come?
Or that capital is fleeing to safety in advance of approaching economic trouble?
Or is this price surge due to speculative zeal?
For answers, we turn to capital manager Axel Merk and his team at Merk Investments, who manage several funds that invest in the precious metal sector.
We'll also ask them their thoughts on the future prospects of the gold and silver mining companies.
Will their performance catch up to, and perhaps outpace that of the metals soon?
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#goldprice #silverprice #miningstocks
When I last interviewed today's guest back in December, he said that the forecast of his proprietary model made him about "as bullish as he'd ever been on stocks" heading into 2024.
And to give credit where credit is due, his positioning was spot on the money.
The S&P 500 & NASDAQ both increased by 11% in Q1
So what is his model telling us to expect in Q2?
To find out we'll ask the man himself.
Today we have the good fortune of speaking with Darius Dale, founder & CEO of 42 Macro.
Darius still maintains a bullish stance, but now that we've moved out of the "Goldilocks" regime and into "Reflation", the intensity of that stance is only moderate at this point.
Follow Darius at https://42macro.com/
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#reflation #inflation #bullmarket
The unending string of up weeks we saw in stocks in Q1 has ended here in April.
The market had a volatile week, with the S&P ending roughly 100 points lower and bond yields continuing to rise, with the UST 10-year now over 4.5%
Notably, the S&P has broken below the bullish trendline it has been trading in since the bull rally began back in November.The breakdown is unconfirmed as of yet.
But if stocks close a little lower from here without regaining their 20 Daily Moving Average, then it will be...so next week will bear close watching.
Portfolio Manager Lance Roberts and I discuss this in depth - as well as Jesse Felder's "three 50s" warnings, inflation, bonds, the price action in gold & oil, as well as his firm's recent trades.
For everything that mattered to market, watch this week's Market Recap featuring Lance Roberts.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#stockmarketcorrection #bondyields #goldprice
In Q1, investors could do no wrong.
Making money was easy as almost every asset class rose to new highs as markets anticipated coming interest rate cuts from.
But here at the start of Q2, things are starting to feel a lot less safe. Suddenly stock prices are plateauing, and services inflation plus a swiftly rising oil price are quickly dashing hopes of rate cuts anytime soon.
Will the markets offer a bumpier ride from here?
To find out, we have the good fortune to talk today with David Brady, money manager, former FX trader, and author of one of the most popular investing publications on Substack, the FIPEST Report.
David has a pretty grim outlook for the stock market. He expects stocks to fall 20-30% soon, recover before the election as the Federal Reserve returns to QE, and then, once the election is over, "drop precipitously"
Follow David at https://fipestreport.substack.com/
Or on Twitter at @GlobalProTrader
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#stockcrash #gold #silver
Today's guest expert is concerned that too many investors, giddy with the ferocious market gains since November, are increasingly willing to pay prices for assets that only make sense if the pace of gains continues into the far future.
This is called "extrapolating the unsustainable" and is a hallmark of late stage price melt-ups.
Historically, this behavior has not ended well for those engaging in it.
Will it prove different this time?
To find out, as well as hear his outlook for markets, we're fortunate to speak today with Jesse Felder, founder & Editor of the respected market research firm: The Felder Report.
Jesse warns that while the market is currently priced for a Goldilocks Econonmy, stagflation is much more likely.
Follow Jesse at https://thefelderreport.com/
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#stagflation #recession #marketcorrection
There's a lot of uncertainty in the world right now -- geopolitical, economic, social, and environmental.
At times like this when the path forward is unclear and the stakes are high, it's wise to tap the counsel of those with a strong command of the lessons of history, and the practical experience of a lifetime in the market trenches.
There are few who fit that description better than Dr Marc Faber, Editor and Publisher of ‘’The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report’Colorful, brash & brilliant — Marc understands the global economy through a historical lens practically unmatched in the industry.
And he’s a declarative straight-shooter who doesn’t mince words.
Follow Marc at https://www.gloomboomdoom.com/
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKETS? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#wealthgap #inflation #goldprice
Are cracks starting to appear in the bull market rally?
Portfolio manager Lance Roberts thinks so.
His technical dashboard is now showing sell signals as volatility is increasing and the S&P has broken beneath its 20 Daily Moving Average.Next week should be telling.
If the S&P rises and closes back above its 20 DMA, that should mean the bull trend is intact.
But if not, and the 20 DMA becomes resistance instead of support, that's a strong sign the rally is cooked for now.
We discuss this, as well as the latest hard-to-believe blowout jobs report, the recent jawboning by Fed officials, bond yields, banking system risk, gold and oil.
For everything that mattered to markets, watch this week's Market Recap featuring Lance Roberts.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#bullmarket #volatility #jobsreport
The Federal Reserve is one of, if not the most, significant institutions in the world given the global impact of its policy decisions.
It influences the price of nearly everything, as well as the availability of jobs, the stability of our banking system, and the purchasing power of our money.
When the Fed Chair speaks, the entire world stops to listen.
But the average person has a poor understanding of how this colossally important entity operates or even why it exists. And after a series of asset price bubbles -- which some argue we're in another one now -- a chorus skeptical of the Fed's actions has emerged.
So today we're doing our best to shine as bright a light as possible on the Fed: how & why it operates, the good & as well as the shortcomings of its actions to date, what direction its policies are likely to take from here, and how all of this impacts the households of regular people like you and me
We have the great privilege of speaking today with Thomas Hoenig, former CEO of the Kansas City Fed, former voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, a former director of the FDIC, and now a Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Mercatus Center.
Follow Dr. Hoenig at https://substack.com/profile/131926993-thomas-hoenig
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#federalreserve #inflation #money
Stocks have delivered a great ride over the past year and a half.
That has attracted retail investors back into the markets with a vengeance. Household equity ownership is currently near an all-time high.
Does this bull market still have plenty of room left to run?
And if so, what are the skeptics misunderstanding?
For insight, we have the good fortune to turn to Dr. Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research.
While not dismissive of the many potential risks to the market's momentum, Ed maintains price targets on the S&P 500 index of 5,400 for 2024 (we're nearly there, so he may need to raise it soon), 6,000 for 2025 and 6,500 for 2026.
Follow Ed at https://yardeni.com/ or https://yardeniquicktakes.com/
SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#bullmarket #ai #cloudcomputing
When I interviewed today's guest expert back in August of 2021, when inflation was 5%, he made the bold prediction that the CPI would eventually hit 9%, a prediction that seemed unthinkable at the time -- but it indeed proved true less than a year later.
He then called for inflation to moderate substantially, which it also then did.
Where does he see inflation headed from here?
To find out, as well as hear his latest outlook on the economy, recession risk, social stability and the markets, we welcome back Steve Hanke professor, of applied economics at the Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, Maryland
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#recession #inflation #moneysupply
Nearly every asset class saw gains in Q1 -- stocks, the dollar, gold, Bitcoin and real estate.
Will the rally keep powering higher through the remainder of 2024?
Portfolio manager Lance Roberts thinks, while anything is possible, stocks are increasingly at risk of a pull-back, especially as the Presidential election approaches.
Markets hate uncertainty, and with a close election expected, not just for the Presidency but for the chambers of Congress as well, it's likely investors will start selling and moving towards the sidelines as summer approaches.
Lance and I discuss that, as well as concerning new jobs data, the looming retirement crisis, the worsening wealth divide, plus several other positive recent developments in this week's recap.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#marketcorrection #bullmarket #jobs2024
Animal spirits have certainly been running wild in the stock market of late.
The S&P is up over 1,000 points (roughly 25%) in the past 4.5 months.
Is this a new era of easy gains as giddy bulls are proclaiming? One investors should jump in and make the most of?
Or is this the latest incarnation of irrational exuberance? And is caution warranted instead?
For insight, we're fortunate to speak today with Jonathan Treussard, former partner and head of product at Research Associates, and now founder of Treussard Capital Management.
Jonathan, who authored academic research on financial bubbles at UCLA, indeed concludes we are in the midst of another such bubble now.
Follow Jonathan at https://www.treussard.com
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#bubbles #nvidia #nvda
Recent inflation reports show that it's proving "sticky", stubbornly refusing to recede down to the target rates that central banks are shooting for.
But rather than simply staying sticky, could it actually start surging again?
Today's guest expert thinks it could due to growing global economic imbalances.
If that happens, what will the implications be?
And can investors to proactively today to prepare?
For answers, we turn to macro and commodities expert Tavi Costa of Crescat Capital.
Follow Tavi at https://www.crescat.net/
SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#inflation #interestrates #commodities
The global economy is awash in too much debt, which continues to pile up at an exponential rate.
History is clear how such eras end. The purchasing power of currency gets destroyed.
To understand why the barbarous relic has risen to an all-time high and may have an even better year lying ahead, we have the good fortune to speak today with macro & precious metals expert Egon von Greyerz, Founder of Matterhorn Asset Management & GoldSwitzerland -- now known as vonGreyerz.gold
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#gold #debt #stocks
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gas is not oil. he sure could do with some self development
Adam, you can not have Mr Dale on without a link to his charts.