Claim OwnershipTrading Perspectives: An Economic Podcast
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© Oakworth Capital Bank 2018
Description
In this podcast, John & Sam exchange perspectives on current events that are impacting our economy and influencing investment strategies. Trading Perspectives is hosted by Oakworth Capital Bank's Chief Investment Officer, John Norris along with Sam Clement, Associate Managing Director.
*Oakworth Asset Management is a registered investment advisor. All advisory services, including investment management and financial planning, are offered through Oakworth Asset Management, LLC, which is owned by Oakworth Capital Bank, member FDIC, Equal Housing Lender. Investment products and services offered via Oakworth Asset Management, LLC are independent of the products and services offered by Oakworth Capital Bank and are NOT FDIC INSURED, NOT BANK GUARANTEED, and MAY LOSE VALUE. The information, opinions, comments, statements, views or recommendations expressed should not be considered professional, tax or legal advice; or as an offer to buy or sell or to make or consider any investment or course of action.
https://www.oakworth.com/
tradingperspectives@oakworth.com
📄 Disclosures: oakworth.com/policy-center
Member FDIC. Equal Housing Lender. Investments may lose value and are not bank guarantee
*Oakworth Asset Management is a registered investment advisor. All advisory services, including investment management and financial planning, are offered through Oakworth Asset Management, LLC, which is owned by Oakworth Capital Bank, member FDIC, Equal Housing Lender. Investment products and services offered via Oakworth Asset Management, LLC are independent of the products and services offered by Oakworth Capital Bank and are NOT FDIC INSURED, NOT BANK GUARANTEED, and MAY LOSE VALUE. The information, opinions, comments, statements, views or recommendations expressed should not be considered professional, tax or legal advice; or as an offer to buy or sell or to make or consider any investment or course of action.
https://www.oakworth.com/
tradingperspectives@oakworth.com
📄 Disclosures: oakworth.com/policy-center
Member FDIC. Equal Housing Lender. Investments may lose value and are not bank guarantee
339 Episodes
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With the government currently shutdown, investors are struggling to determine the true health of the U.S. economy. Key among the concerns is the strength of the U.S. consumer. As the old saying goes: "how goes the U.S. consumer is how goes the U.S. economy." So, have tariffs impacted the price of goods or consumer behavior? What is the U.S. consumer buying? If the focus on 'need to have' goods and services or 'nice to have'? How are companies getting tired consumers to their stores and websites? Finally, what impact will AI have on consumer spending in the future? In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the current consumer market, and attempt to answer any questions about the strength of the U.S. consumer.
This week, the Federal government officially ceased all "non-essential" activities. Unfortunately, this was widely anticipated due to differences of opinion in healthcare spending on Capitol Hill. However, what it all means for the average American isn't completely clear. People want to know: What is a government shutdown and what is it not? What or how have we gotten to this point? What is the practical impact on day-to-day economic activity? What are the long-term ramifications? What is the likelihood this will happen again? In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent government shutdown, its potential causes and possible outcomes.
On September 17th, 2025, the Federal Reserve cut the target overnight lending rate between member banks. This was as expected. However, it seems not everyone is completely clear on what it means. So…. What is a Fed rate cut and what is it not? What had the investment markets been waiting for the Fed to cut? What might this mean for mortgage rates? Or for consumer debt? Finally, how will this impact corporate America? In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris give a little class on Fed Rate Cuts 101, and discuss some of the potential ramifications of this most recent one.
What does it mean when the Fed meets and doesn't do anything? When the Bureau of Economic Analysis says the economy grew 3.0% when it really didn't? When the Bureau of Labor Statistics announces the labor markets are stronger than anyone believes they really are? When all official measures of inflation don't seem to reflect the consumer's reality? Essentially, what is the truth behind the headlines and all of the noise? In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris dissect a busy week of economic releases, earnings announcements and Fed meetings, and try to make sense of it all.
This week, Democratic voters in New York elected Zohran Mamdani to be their candidate for the mayoral election in November. Perhaps not surprisingly, the 33-year old's popularity with the younger generations helped to catapult to victory. However, his political platform and campaign processes are giving the traditional elites the fits. Rent freezes? Free public transportation. Free childcare? Government-run grocery stores? Higher taxes for corporations and the so-called 1%? A $30/hour minimum wage? Regulating delivery apps? It is very aggressive and more than a little bit idealistic. The question remains: why do these economically questionable positions appeal to younger voters? In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent mayoral primaries in New York, and analyze the winner's appeal to younger voters. The title is an allusion to a famous headline in New York during the Ford Administration….when Gerald Ford essentially blocked a financial bailout for the city.
This week, the Federal Open Market Committee met, and didn't cut the overnight rate. This even though its economic projections were far from robust. Somewhat frustratingly, the Fed reported it thinks the long-term growth rate for the US economy is around 1.8%. This is well less than the historical average, and would cause our deficit to balloon even more than forecast. Further, the President's tariff wars appear to have the Fed spooked, as it now thinks inflation will hit 3.0% by the end of the year. All told, the Fed meeting this week was something of a downer. In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent Fed meeting and how no one should be fired up about it.
Legend has it the Roman Emperor Nero played his fiddle while Rome burned down around him. These days, domestic investors keep throwing money into the financial markets despite troubling headlines both here and abroad. But why is the American investing public apparently ignoring the world around it? Is it a change in risk tolerance? Easier access to retail investment products? Recent past performance? Does the money simply have to go somewhere? Or are we fiddling while the world burns down around us? On this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent curious rally in the US stock market and the potential causes for it.
The Administration's One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) has had caused a lot of wringing of hands and gnashing of teeth. How are we going to pay for all of these tax cuts? Where have the tax credits gone? What do you mean the states can't regulate Artificial Intelligence? However, the hullabaloo misses the point: without a meaningful pickup in economic activity and reduction in Federal expenditures, there is no hope to get the budget deficits under control. Is there anything to be done? Interestingly enough, perhaps. In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the OBBB and what it means for the US.
This week, the Court of International Trade sort of put the kibosh on the Administration's blanket, reciprocal tariffs. Also, Elon Musk made his exit from the apparently ineffectual DOGE, but not before taking a few passing shots. Also, while the House passed the President's "big beautiful bill," a lot of people are wondering how Washington can possibly pay for it. All told, from the outside looking in, it wasn't a very good week for the President. So, where does he go from here? In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the Administration's trying week and where it must go from here.
This week, the stock markets rallied sharply on news the Administration was going to cut the tariff rate with China from 145% to 30%. However, should investors be enthused with constantly shifting economic policies? Particularly those like tariffs, which add costs to both the importer and the consumer? Further, with the economy already cooling slightly, is now the right time to play hard ball with our trading partners? Basically, what is the real cause for celebration? In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the extreme reaction the markets had to the reduction in tariff rates with the Chinese.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) recently announced the U.S. economy shrank during the 1st quarter of 2025. Obviously, that is not good news. However, is it the bad news the headline would imply? Are we standing at the edge of the economic cliff? Or will the UJS economy be able to take a step back of the abyss? In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report and whether the U.S. is headed for a deep recession. So, is the sky really falling?
After a few days of positive returns, it seems the market panic has subsided. So, is now a good buying opportunity? Is it safe to get back into the investing waters? Or would it be prudent to wait a while? After all, the threat of tariffs are still very real and very possible. The economy appears a little weaker than it was in 2024, consumer confidence has collapsed and corporate America doesn't have a good idea what the remainder of the year will bring. If that sounds like a good time to invest to you, have at it. In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent market volatility and ask a very basic question: is now the time to buy?
One of the Administration's primary goals with the tariff wars seems to be onshoring production jobs. Intuitively, that makes sense. More jobs are almost always better than fewer. However, are these the types of jobs the American economy actually needs and the American workers actually wants? Further, what is the likelihood companies make drastic shifts in their production facilities, understanding President Trump will be gone in less than 4 years? These are great questions which need real answers. In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement, John Norris and special guest David McGrath discuss the potential for more manufacturing jobs in the economy and wonder whether they are worth the pain.
We have all heard the worst-case scenarios, and everyone is hoping for the best-case ones. However, what is the probable case scenario? Oakworth Capital's Investment Committee discusses the recent market volatility and likely outcomes.
Yesterday, the Administration announced widespread tariffs on the remainder of the world. It hit some countries harder than others, with rates which will certainly curtail trade between our country and theirs. Is this really good for overall economic activity? Given the stock markets' extremely negative reactions, it would seem like it isn't. So, why did we do it? In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discussed the announced tariffs and their potential impact on the economy.
If the headlines have seemed somewhat repetitive recently, it is because they have been. Another day, another DOGE headline and another barb traded. The markets continue to be choppy and gold continues to rally. Foreign leaders have to be tired of bristling against comments from Washington. While arguably exciting at first, the news has become boring and predictable in its unpredictably. It has almost been like listening to the same record over and over again. In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss recent global events and what has been the most surprising to them thus far in 2025. Will you be surprised by what they have to say?
The policy making committee of the Federal Reserve met this week and didn't cut interest rates. That was as expected. But if it was so widely expected, why did anyone care? Does the Fed have access to information the rest of us don't? Does it have crystal balls which actually work? Are the voting members on the committee that much smarter? Or have we given the Fed magical powers it doesn't really have? In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the most recent Fed meeting and what it means for the economy, if anything.
It had all been going so nicely, had it not? The markets and the economy were better than the experts expected in 2024. Business owner and consumer confidence spiked after the November elections, and the world has been in a flurry of activity since. Unfortunately, people don't seem to be having as much fun as they were. The markets have been bleeding red ink, and the headlines have been talking about a recession. How did we get here so quickly? And how quickly can we leave? In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent market turmoil and speculate on what caused it and when it will end. Let's just say no one likes uncertainty.
Investors have been very skittish for the last couple of weeks. The potential for trade wars with the Canadians and Mexicans have people on edge, and for good reason. The economy was slowing enough on its own already. However, are tariffs really the economic death knells people think they are? Will they really cause U.S. consumer prices to go through the roof? Why do this and why do it now? In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent concerns over potential trade wars with major U.S. trading partners, and ask the question: are tariffs really that bad?
Recent economic reports and corporate earnings releases suggest the vaunted U.S. consumer might be running out of steam. The official savings rate has plummeted. Consumer confidence gauges are down. Loan delinquencies are up. Mid-tier restaurant closings are becoming commonplace. So, how much longer can the ultra-wealthy continue to spend at its current level to mask these problems? Will a pullback in the stock market close the wallets of the income group currently holding the economy together? Are we at an inflection point? Because all of the negative anecdotes can't be simply anecdotal, can they? In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the curious case of the U.S. consumer. Much of the data suggests it is running out of gas, but some of it says otherwise. What is the truth? And what is the likelihood the consumer pulls back over the next couple of quarters?
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