Trumponomics

With his poll numbers falling, U.S. President Joe Biden is under pressure to do something—anything—to get inflation under control. That’s led his administration to scrutinize the prices you pay at the grocery store, even if some critics argue alleged price-gouging by consumer products giants is a convenient bogeyman.This week’s episode dives into the debate around corporate consolidation and whether it’s giving too much power to those companies. First, Bloomberg editor Molly Smith visits a New Jersey butcher shop where the owner suspects greedy multinational firms are behind the doubling of prices for some cuts of meat. The companies are pleading innocent, blaming instead labor shortages and soaring demand. But Bill Baer, a former antitrust chief at both the Justice Department and the Federal Trade Commission, sides with the butcher. He tells host Stephanie Flanders that some companies in concentrated industries are boosting prices well beyond just covering their extra costs.Finally, Rome-based reporter Alessandra Migliaccio reports on the “Groundhog Day” nature of the Italian government, with its long history of cyclical political crisis, salvation, infighting and crisis again. With Prime Minister Mario Draghi potentially leaving his post to become Italy’s next president, a more ceremonial role, many worry it won’t be long until the cycle begins again. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Inflation rates may be slowing broadly across Europe, but you wouldn’t know it after a trip to the grocery store or dining out. And there’s only so much governments can do to help their people cope. In this week’s Stephanomics podcast, Bloomberg reporter Alessandra Migliaccio takes you across the continent to see how much more it costs to make some of the world’s most famous dishes, from France’s coq au vin to pizza margherita in Italy. Politicians have tried to limit the pain of high prices, but their efforts have barely made a dent. Bloomberg has been tracking custom food indexes around the world for close to a year, including the traditional English breakfast. Reporter Irina Anghel tells us about the latest reading, which showed the average basket of ingredients—including eggs, bread and milk—spiked almost 23% in the past year. Host Stephanie Flanders then chats with Joe Glauber, a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, about the outlook for global food prices.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The banking crisis that began in March continues to rapidly evolve. What started with the collapse of Silvergate Capital and Silicon Valley Bank went on to claim Signature Bank and push a vulnerable Credit Suisse into the arms of UBS. This week, another midsize California lender that couldn’t find its footing also dropped, as First Republic was acquired by JPMorgan. In the first episode of this season, we catch you up on the turmoil in the financial sector and how it’s straining US small businesses that rely on these banks for capital. Bloomberg reporter Mike Sasso takes us to Florida, where a couple that’s trying to create a space for people to eat and drink while playing the fast-growing sport of pickleball is struggling to get an affordable loan. The topic dominated discussions at this week’s Milken Institute conference in Los Angeles. Host Stephanie Flanders sat down with Milken Institute Chief Economist William Lee, who warns that cutting off small businesses from borrowing would hit the labor market almost directly. However, he says that’s exactly what the Federal Reserve wants, as illustrated by a cycle of rate hikes that, after Wednesday's latest increase, may finally be at an end.  And finally, Flanders speaks with Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, who said the banking crisis highlights the complacency of regulators when it comes to financial risk. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

People in China are blocked from seeing much of what’s happening in the outside world. For outsiders, it can be just as difficult to see in. This week, Stephanie interviews Keyu Jin, professor at the London School of Economics and author of The New China Playbook. Jin discusses what she considers misunderstandings of China’s ambitions and goals in the world, and the risks that come with such views. She says that one of the biggest misconceptions is that China is trying to displace the US. What it’s really aiming for, Jin explains, is to improve living standards for its middle-income earners. She also discusses the current state of China’s economy, its relations with the US and Europe and the skills gap contributing to high youth unemployment. Within China, there’s widespread gratitude and deference toward the government, something outsiders often find surprising, Jin says. But she warns this could change if slower economic growth translates into fewer high-quality jobs.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The US economy has proven resilient after more than a year’s worth of interest-rate hikes, with a steady drumbeat of recession predictions having been proven wrong. New data released this week continued to point away from a downturn. Still, some forecasters warn a recession might still be coming, and that it could coincide with the 2024 presidential election. On this week’s episode, we look at how the current leading candidates for the White House are framing the economy. Bloomberg Senior Reporter Nancy Cook describes the challenge facing President Joe Biden: the economy has thrived on his watch, especially in terms of record low unemployment, but the overhang of persistent inflation weighs heavy on voters’ minds. Meantime, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former President Donald Trump haven’t put forward any economic plans and have largely focused on divisive social issues and the threats posed by China. Then Stephanie sits down with Michael Strain, director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, a right-leaning think tank, and Bloomberg economist Anna Wong. They discuss how the US economy will evolve leading up to the 2024 vote, and how important it might be in deciding the election. Wong says that, while Biden’s signature economic legislation—the Inflation Reduction Act, the CHIPS and Science Act, and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law—are investments that will play out in the long term, short-term costs of higher inflation and recession risks may offset the benefits, and even outweigh them.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.