Claim OwnershipUBS On-Air: Market Moves
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UBS On-Air: Market Moves brings you beyond the highs and lows of the ticker, with conversations that can broaden your thinking about market behavior
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On the final episode of Top of the Morning for 2024, Brian Rose drops by to share his thoughts and reflections on this week’s FOMC meeting outcome. We also look ahead to 2025 and examine CIO’s current forecast for rate cuts, along with take a temperature on the health of the US economy as we head into the new year. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy
With the wearisome repetitiveness of a tacky Christmas song, a US government shutdown is again threatened. A budget deal backed by president-elect adviser Musk and President-elect Trump failed to pass Congress. Absent a deal, the US government starts to shut down tonight. A short-lived shutdown affects government workers, but has limited economic impact. The longer a shutdown lasts, the more disruptive it is to the US economy. Economic data may not get published in a shutdown (a problem for Federal Reserve Chair Powell with their addiction to data dependency).
US inflation has fallen this year. A lot of this is due to the fantasy owners’ equivalent rent price, which no one pays. Declining fantasy prices do not help consumers’ spending power. However, rightly or wrongly (the answer is “wrongly”), Fed Chair Powell pays attention to inflation measures including OER. If rates were raised on a fantasy, they should be cut on a fantasy—and we see a rate cut today.
For the final episode of 2024, Shane shares the latest on government funding negotiations, along with other year-end legislative priorities of Congress. We also touch on recent developments within Syria, along with highlight some notable priorities of Congress in the new year. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy
US inflation has fallen this year. A lot of this is due to the fantasy owners’ equivalent rent price, which no one pays. Declining fantasy prices do not help consumers’ spending power. However, rightly or wrongly (the answer is “wrongly”), Fed Chair Powell pays attention to inflation measures including OER. If rates were raised on a fantasy, they should be cut on a fantasy—and we see a rate cut today.
Torsten rejoins Jason in the New York podcast studio to exchange 2024 reflections, and 2025 expectations - spanning market returns, monetary policy, and the macro environment for the US, and around the world. We also spend time addressing investment themes, and allocation preferences as we head into a new year. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Torsten Slok, Partner and Chief Economist with Apollo Global Management. Host: Daniel Cassidy
We wrap up our year-ahead series with a look at expectations for the municipal bond market in 2025, including how policy uncertainties and macro factors might impact munis, along with how investors should assess key trends and position within the asset class. Featured are Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, Ted Galgano, Senior Municipal Credit Strategist Americas, & Jeannine Lennon, Senior Municipal Credit Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy
While we wait for the perfection of economists running everything, politicians are creating background noise. To the surprise of absolutely no one, Germany’s government lost a vote of confidence and February elections are now likely. Expect deep soul-searching about relatively insignificant changes in fiscal deficits.
As we conclude the CIO Strategy Snapshot series for 2024, Jason unveils and explains his choice for 2024 “finance word of the year”. We also spend time reflecting the latest round of inflation data, previewing this week’s FOMC meeting, and reviewing CIO’s investment recommendations heading into 2025. The CIO Strategy Snapshot will resume on Monday, January 6. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy
China’s November retail sales disappointed. Some of this can be blamed on the timing of the singles shopping festival. The pattern of sales showed consumers spending in areas with government support, but in doing so cut back on areas without government support. This demand switching in an overall subdued demand environment has parallels to Japan’s “spending voucher” initiatives in the 1990s. The data keeps up pressure for fiscal policy to tackle consumers’ apprehensions about the future.
The decade so far has been a “Roaring ‘20s” by many measures. Now we’re getting set to navigate geopolitical uncertainty, lower interest rates, and transformative innovation in the years ahead. As we approach the midpoint of the decade, a key question is whether US political change might extend or end this “Roaring ‘20s” dynamic. To help you start the new year with confidence, Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation, and Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income, will outline top ideas for 2025, share key investment insights, and provide strategies for achieving long-term investment success. Recorded on December 5th.
Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors as we approach 2025, and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also touch on monetary policy, rates and the macro environment. Featured are Kewjin “Kew” Yuoh, Partner, Portfolio Manager with Lord Abbett, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy
Our series of year-ahead conversations continue with a look at performance expectations and themes in focus (including Artificial Intelligence) for the US Information Technology sector in 2025. We also spend time reviewing sub-sector preferences, along with reflect on sector performance over the past year. Featured is Kevin Dennean, Technology & Telecom Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy
The ECB cut rates by 25bps as was expected. The ECB does not want to be running a restrictive monetary policy at the moment, and more rate cuts are expected next year. The ECB’s challenge is that data tends to understate economic activity, so knowing precisely how the economy is faring is difficult.
On the final episode of Viewpoints for 2024, Burkhard reflects on what has been a busy year, spanning market and macro developments, along with shares expectations for 2025.
As 2024 comes to a close, the CIO Fixed Income team reflects on performance across sub-sectors (including Municipals, Investment Grade, and Preferreds), and share expectations for the year-ahead. Plus, thoughts on positioning across the broader asset class. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, along with Senior Fixed Income Strategists’ Barry McAlinden and Frank Sileo, from the UBS Chief Investment Office.
Our series of year-ahead conversations continue with a look at performance expectations and themes in focus for the US healthcare sector in 2025. We also spend time reviewing sub-sector preferences, along with reflect on sector performance over the past year. Featured is Eric Potoker, Healthcare Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy
US consumer price inflation data is due for November. These numbers are something of a mess. A quarter of the index is a fantasy price no one pays. Income inequality means the average price is less representative of most US households’ experience. The threat of taxes on US consumers from the next administration means this inflation data is not necessarily a good guide to 2025 trends.
In this special edition of the CEO Macro Briefing Book series, Paul Hsiao outlines some of the top questions on the minds of business owner clients as we head into 2025. Featured is Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy
China’s consumers have been unenthusiastic, and exports are not necessarily dependable. Yesterday, China’s politburo signaled additional monetary and fiscal stimulus would be forthcoming. If US President-elect Trump taxes US consumers of goods from China, that may be a convenient excuse for China to cut taxes for its consumers.
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Not once has anyone addressed the issue of people who have seen their portfolios take nose dive, but who are older and have a time line of perhaps 5-7 years IF healthy. What is the best strategy? We are UBS clients, but have not been contacted by our financial advisor.