UBS On-Air: Market Moves

A monthly check on US equity market performance and positioning considerations with Jeremy Zirin, Senior Portfolio Manager, and Head of the Private Client US Equity Team, and Dominic Schagar, Senior Equity Investment Specialist with UBS Asset Management.

There are several ECB speakers on the agenda today. One speaker, Rehn, has already suggested that two further rate cuts are a reasonable estimate for ECB action this year. This is in line with most economists’ views.

Our conversation today focuses on the current election cycle as it relates to the potential impacts of political bias when it comes to financial decision making, and how to navigate accordingly. Featured are Justin Waring, Senior Total Wealth Strategist, and Ainsley Carbone, Retirement Strategist, from the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Hear from top investment professionals from the UBS Asset Management’s Multi-Asset Team.

Jay Dobson is joined by Dave Intoppa for an in-depth conversation about where we are in the energy transition story, including a look at technological innovations, investment considerations, and what to expect in the years (and decades) ahead. Featured are Jay Dobson, Energy and Utilities Sector Strategist Americas, with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Dave Intoppa, Portfolio Manager, at Newton Investment Management (BNY Investments). Host: Daniel Cassidy

In the absence of interesting data, markets focus on less important things, like politics. France has a political debate between current Prime Minister Attal, Rassemblement National president Bardella, and Nouveau Front Populaire leader Bompard. Presumably they will promise voters everything that they desire, without explaining how it will be paid for. Some plans are estimated to cost two Trusses (4% of GDP of unfunded commitments). The reality of government is likely to moderate such plans.

In a special session from Singapore, Chief Investment Officer Mark Haefele is joined by Min Lan Tan, Head CIO of APAC, Paul Donovan, Chief Economist, and Sundeep Gantori, Equity Strategist, to discuss our outlook for the second half of the year and provide recommendations for investors.

This week, Jason outlines the events that are set to take place that will not only determine the investment landscape through year-end, though also shape expectations for 2025. We also review the current asset allocation recommendations from CIO. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

For this month we focus on the 2024 proxy season, including a review of expectations, a look at some notable trends and themes, along with comparisons to what 2023 delivered. Featured are Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable & Impact Investing Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Amy O’Brien, Global Head of Responsible Investing with Nuveen. Host: Daniel Cassidy

This week has a lot of politics in it, and markets are rarely that good at pricing political risk. The US presidential debate may make investors pay attention to political risk earlier than is normal in the US political cycle. Because so much attention has focused on the suitability of the candidates for office (rather than their policy positions), this debate might actually matter.

This week we follow-up on rulings issued by the Supreme Court, including US tax on foreign business income. Shane also provides some takeaways from the recent G7 Summit, and touches on this year’s focuses and themes. Plus, some background on the Russia-North Korea military pact and the global implications. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Yesterday’s central bank decisions support the trend of following inflation lower. The Swiss rate cut reflected a desire to stabilize real rates, not stimulate the economy. Bank of England Governor Bailey linked future rate cuts to lower inflation; an August rate cut looks increasingly likely. Only the Federal Reserve seems to have forgotten that rising real rates are repressive.

With the halfway point of 2024 having arrived, we reflect on how market and macro conditions have evolved thus far, and share expectations for the balance of the year. Plus, we outline positioning recommendations across equities, fixed income, and alternatives. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, and Nadia Lovell, Senior US Equity Strategist. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Hear from top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income and Liquidity teams. Together, they provide views on markets and what they believe you should be focused on within the fixed income space.

The Bank of England offers some excitement as investors await the start of the UK interest rate easing cycle. That start is probably not today, but should be soon. The BoE relishes dissent and discussion to help form higher quality decisions (the Federal Reserve might like to take note), making policy outcomes less predictable. With consumer price inflation down nine percentage points from the recent highs, the case for lowering real interest rates is strong—but the BoE might want a couple more data points before acting.