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The Business, Management, and Legal Programs Department at UCLA Extension offers more than 350 courses, conference, and seminars annually and is home to more than 50 professional certificates designed for working professionals and recent college grads who are seeking professional development in the dynamic world of business. Our courses are offered online or in the classroom, making it a flexible option for everyone.
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Many negative expectations over the past year, unfortunately, becoming reality including: severe recession or worse, continuation of inflation, increasing unemployment, worsening commercial and residential real estate issues, likelihood of lower and lower dollar, job creation issues including future robotics, and complicated by global military threats and U.S. instability. This is not a pretty picture and could actually become much worse than expected in this podcast as job growth is not only seriously threatened but so is price stability. Considerations for personal/family financial protection are discussed.
The major trends which will not change this year or next regardless of new trade deals and Congressional programs: lower dollar, higher inflation, higher unemployment, higher gold prices and, importantly, a U.S. vs. BRICS+ divided world.
The most recent data continues to demonstrate a weakening employment picture in the context of another round of high inflation and deteriorating real estate prices for both commercial and residential. All in all, the blend of many more home foreclosures hitting the market, little or no new full time job creation, higher consumer prices, and the continuing need to finance new and rollover government debt will keep the overall economy from growing. Add to this the serious economic downturns in China, Japan, and Western Europe we have a most volatile year or more ahead with little to start any new recovery. Regardless of individual listener political leanings, the good news is that the present administration seems to be making headway in improving relationships with the countries that hold vast amounts of dollars as well as needed natural resources. I'll take whatever we can get during this historically unsettled global economic period.
It now seems too late to avoid a severe recession or worse given recent data and global political events. The U.S. will likely suffer less than Europe or China but, nevertheless, suffer mightily. What to consider to mitigate pain is summarized after the global situation is parsed in this podcast.
Please do take advantage of this 8-minute video by Bravos Research which well summarizes issues impacting the U.S. dollar, U.S. debt refinancing, and economic stability: https://bravosresearch.com/youtube/why-the-us-treasury-market-is-on-the-brink-of-total-collapse/
The global economy as well as the U.S. is heading for more volatility with 2024's issues becoming more severe in 2025 as expected.
The U.S. stock market is likely in an official "bear market" with more foreign selling ahead. The same expectation applies to the U.S. government debt marketplace with more selling of U.S. securities and higher interest rates continuing. The Federal Reserve’s buying of U.S. debt expected to once again prop up the debt markets but higher inflation expectations likely to continue to force U.S. interest rates higher. 2025, as expected, is shaping up to be a challenging year for both the employment and financial markets.
The EU is experiencing cracks in their foundation that could even threaten their existence over the next several years. China moving to super-money creation to avoid a depression while building aggressively their military and taking a direct move against the U.S. It seems the BRICS+ countries in the near term continue to move counter to U.S. positions while the U.S. shores up its own military while continuing to issue record amounts of new and refinanced debt. This year is shaping up as a year of substantial change for pretty much everyone on the globe involved in market defined economies and world trade. Investment risks continue to grow!
U.S. Government propped-up housing market, pricewise, starting its fall off a cliff. Good news coming for future first-time home buyers but not so good for us existing homeowners. Covid emergency bailouts artificially kept prices high and false signaled a healthy economy...now coming to an end. Many trends converging to create a significantly negative financial environment but certain investment categories should benefit.
Serious stresses in the ECB and the EU, recent and revised data show a serious U.S. recession in place, new political leadership to favor a recession earlier than later, increasing interest rates and serious banking issues to emerge, increasing layoffs and contraction of U.S. work force in process, preparations for war, some positive long term forces but many negative short term ones, and increasing bi-polarization of the global economies.
Many threats we warned about last year are coming to a head now! Be prepared!!
This year promises to be the most challenging and risky since the Global Financial Crisis! Europe is becoming more unstable politically at a time when vast amounts of government debts have to be financed/refinanced. The following negative trends are reasserting themselves: return to high inflation in the U.S., growing distance between Western World and BRICS+ countries as well as emerging conflicts between U.S. and European leadership. Like the 1970's gold and many commodities on price uptrends indicating increasing global instability and shortages. In particular, the U.S. is seriously challenged to find new rare earth materials to support the aviation, defense, battery, and IT industries as China controls 90%+ of these materials globally while restricting or disallowing their shipments to the U.S.
U.S. has to refinance historical amounts of debt requiring Federal Reserve reinstating high money creation. Long term interest rates heading higher but home prices staying historically high. For the stock market consider avoiding interest rate and consumer industries regardless of tariffs and think about U.S. raw materials producers and hi-tech equipment manufacturers. Reconsider traditional U.S. energy producers. Stay financially conservative by avoid new debt.
For 2025's economic issues carried forward from 2024!
China moves into a depression economy as real estate losses cost one year of total GNP. The U.S. new leadership transition is itself smoother so far than anticipated but few substantive changes will have traction in 2025/2026, the UK and EU are facing increasing economic/political risks, and, maybe most importantly U.S. inflation is again growing bringing with it higher and higher long term interest rates. Real economic growth and creation of new jobs will be a most serious global issue although the US is relatively better prepared.
Happy New Year! As we’re off and running into 2025 we are already faced with a lot of global issues occurring during the transition of power in the U.S. In fact, it seems as though we are finding a global reset has kicked off the new year.
Federal supremacy vs. state's rights (sanctuary cities/states, DEI, tariffs, and more).
A new round of money creation and inflation is around the corner in both the West and China. U.S. unemployment continues its trend upward with recent government inflation measures also moving again upward. Many multi-month trends indicate that we are in a serious recession despite government arguments to the contrary.
The continuing disappearance of the American "Middle Class" in light of continuing high inflation rates, expanding war risks, and increasing divisiveness across our country. We've been in this situation before (and worse) including the country dividing election of 1828 (Andrew Jackson's election), the Panic of 1837, and the Great Depression of the 1930's. Many long term trends are locked in already as in the prior periods mentioned but, hopefully, this time we can avoid a major war and a depression. We have to realize that even in an ultimate recovery the rest of this year and 2025 is "dialed in".
A lot of volatility ahead as new leadership assumes power in the U.S. Pre-election negative trends are pretty much not reversible regardless on new economic policies which will take time to approve and start implementation. Unlike past global economic challenges, all global powerhouses are in downturns (U.S., China, Germany, U.K., Russia, etc.) as the BRICS+ countries continue to challenge the West including Japan and S. Korea. U.S. needs to finance $Trillions of government and real estate related debt, during our period of rising long term interest rates, may precipitate another international finance and/or banking industry crisis.
This week, we’ll talk about the implications of the BRICS+ meeting, increasing long term interest rates, and the continuing vast amount of dollars coming into the U.S. stock and bond markets.
Historically, in war times, money moves out of higher geographical risk areas into U.S. dollar investments. It’s hard to predict the ebb and flow of global investment movements but, historically, when this trend ends it ends abruptly. My question is how these flows will change after the election. In the meantime, and quite independently of dollar investment flows, the global economy is either in recession or stagflation...neither which is good for job prospects nor long term stock valuations.
The foreign ownership trends of money flows into and out of the U.S. long term interest rates can be expected to continue up despite the Fed reducing short term interest rates. Higher inflation is expected in the years ahead which, by itself, keeps long term interest rates growing especially as the multiple war zones continue to impact shipping and insurance costs.
Most of the leading Western countries going into or well into recessions while Russia and China organize BRICS+ against the dollar and economic leadership.
The implications of chronic under-reporting U.S. employment and inflation in the context of increasing long term interest rates and out of control federal spending. Stay tuned for the outcome later this month of the Russia hosted BRICS+ summit including China's plan for settlements of global trade outside of the dollar systems. Prepare for China and Russia export controls on uranium and rare earth materials impacting not only electric power generation but production of telecommunications, transportation, and military equipment.
The rapid progress of BRICS+ to replace the dollar, growing role of gold, a new round of money creation, and, once again, higher inflation expectations.
Keep a close eye of the BRICS+ news releases and the upcoming meeting in Russia in late October. Many liberal policies being reversed/replaced in Europe including a ramp up in immigrant deportations (rising civil unrest), and, overall more out of control government spending. Now is the time to prudently plan for a war time economy or at least one with more supply chain disruptions.
BRICS+ progress to dethrone the U.S. dollar and concurrent set of U.S. economic and political threats to stability.
Is the October BRICS+ meeting introducing a new gold-backed currency? The global political/economic environment is rapidly deteriorating and so are the related issues we are facing. Protecting ourselves for a most volatile Fall with lower risk investments should be a top priority now.
Major government revision of 'number of employed' reported in process for release. Economy weakened quite significantly this summer with threat of Japan 'Carrytrade' still overhanging the U.S. bond and stock markets. Challenge by BRICS+ to the U.S. gaining global momentum with U.S. electioneering a strong negative for U.S. global engagement.
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