A look at Biden’s awful first Presidential debate with Trump, and his 20% fall in betting markets overnight.
And Australia may be out of the cricket (just enjoying typing that) but its inflation numbers sent bond markets lower yesterday.
And a look at Noah Smith’s views on ‘elite overproduction’.
The ‘boiling frog’ impact of higher rates on credit is starting to be felt, but no big default rise until 2025.
And China leaves rates on hold, despite weak house price news.
But French assets are really struggling, and credit is starting to weaken.
Also: a smorgasbord of other bond market ephemera.
US rate cut now not fully priced until December.
Could mean less demand for traditional EZ sovereign debt, especially as France risks a downgrade from S&P.
Also: credit spreads are tight and stable. It was quiet - too quiet…. And CMBS takes its first big hit since the GFC.
And it’s not just because of July’s General Election - service sector inflation is too strong. 💪
And Biden puts 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs.
Aggregate US stats are now disappointing- although the rest of the world is doing OK.
Also: Swedish rate cut, and no more excess savings left in America.
2 year US Treasury bond yields drop from 5% to 4.75% in 2 days.
And H5N1 (Bird Flu) starts to get attention in financial markets. Gulp.
Also: yen intervention at last? And US immigration at 3 million per year.
And Japanese inflation goes the other way, with a downside shock.