Unhedged

The Federal Reserve announced a small cut yesterday. Normally, that heartens markets. But we are not in normal times, and somewhat measured comments about the coming year seemed to have spooked traders. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter try to figure out what happened, and why. Also we go long holiday wish lists and short gift cards. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The road to riches used to be paved with juicy IPOs. But that does not seem to be the case anymore. Today on the show, Katie Martin is joined by Craig Coben, a former global head of equity capital markets at Bank of America, and now a contributing writer for FT Alphaville. They discuss regulation and demand, and the growing role of private equity in corporate ownership. Also, they go short France and long melodic house music. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

There have been very few mergers and acquisitions in the past four years, but many dealmakers say that’s about to change. At least that’s according to reporting by James Fontanella-Khan, our guest on the show today. Fontanella-Khan is the FT’s US deals reporter, and he speaks with Rob Armstrong about the shape of deals to come, and how anti-trust policy might look over the next four years. Also, they go long vintage clothing and long the prospects of a merger between Giorgia Meloni and Elon Musk.  For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ukraine, Syria, Moldova, France, Israel, South Korea, the US…. Power is being challenged and redistributed around the world. But how are markets reacting, which changes truly matter to the global multinational corporations that power the markets, and why are markets so bad at predicting these upheavals? Today on the show, Katie Martin and Aiden Reiter take stock of the rearrangements. Also they go long scarves and crappy Santas. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Among his many promises, president-elect Donald Trump is promising to drive down the price of energy in the US. But how realistic a plan is that? What levers does he have to pull? Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter talk about how oil is priced and what moves that price. Also they go long parliamentary democracy and short brunch. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ruchir Sharma, an investor and frequent contributor to the FT, came out and said it the other day: The US stock market is in a bubble. But is it a bubble or just the rational behavior of investors who believe the US really is exceptional? Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong discuss the outlandishly good performance of the US market, and ask how long it can last. Also they go long Elon Musk’s pay package and short the transatlantic bug.For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedofferYou can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

How would you like a 265,528,900 per cent return on your investment? Would you be interested in that? If so, join us as Rob Armstrong and FT Alphaville’s Robin Wigglesworth discuss the results of Professor Hendrik Bessembinder’s massive number-crunching project, which ranks the best stocks of the past century. The number one performer is pretty incendiary. Also we short break dancing and go triple reverse long on single-stock ETFs. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedofferYou can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

President-elect Donald Trump has just announced “Day 1” tariffs on Mexico and Canada, in addition to previously promised tariffs on China. Tariffs will definitely affect domestic prices, but how much, and will they truly cause catastrophic inflation? Today on the show, guest host Josh Oliver discusses the tariffs with the FT’s economics commentator Chris Giles. Also, they short the new Treasury secretary and the 900-year-old Smithfield meat market in the City of London. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedofferYou can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

It is the season for giving and banks are giving us a lot of year-ahead reports. Katie, Robert and Aiden actually read these things, and today on the show they discuss what they’ve learned. It all raises questions about very narrow corporate spreads, an AI bubble and what happens if things go right in the jobs market, or wrong in the Middle East. Also we go long hair products, short turkey and limit long Josh Kushner’s big bet against diversification. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedofferYou can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Opinions are cheap so we’re making it up in volume, with three takes on the future of the economy. Today on the show, the entire staff of the Unhedged newsletter – Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter – gather to discuss looming inflation, the next 25 years of returns from the stock market and the challenges facing the so-called ‘department of government efficiency’. Also we go long Disney and long Turkey, the country.For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedofferYou can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Angry eruptions in elections around the world are changing leaders. And many of those leaders are coming in with radical offers to the voters. But can anger change an economic outcome for the better? And will it? Today on the show, Katie Martin hosts a live forum at the Kilkenomics Festival in Kilkenny, Ireland and discusses the topic with Leah Downey, a political theorist, and Eric Lonergan, a money manager. Also, we go long turkeys and short orange politicians. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedofferYou can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Each year economists gather in Kilkenny, Ireland for the annual Kilkenomics festival. The guests share stories in pubs and make dark jokes about economics. This year, we joined them, taping two episodes of our podcast in Cleere's Bar & Theatre. In our first instalment, we speak with financial historian Russell Napier and Martín Lousteau, a senator representing the city of Buenos Aires. The topic is financial mistakes. Also we go long anger in politics and short France. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedofferYou can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

If Donald Trump’s campaign promises about things such as immigration, the dollar, trade and tax policy are realised, the US will start an economic experiment without recent precedent. Today on the show, Katie Martin, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter make their best guesses about a very confusing and unfamiliar future. Also, we short incumbents and tweed and go long the American project. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedofferYou can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

It’s election day. Everyone is freaking out. But the prices of some major commodities and indices remain stoically calm. We investigate. Also, we go long nuclear power, long bees and limit long a squirrel named Peanut.For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedofferYou can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Magnificent 7 make up seven of the eight largest stocks on the S&P 500 and they are reporting earnings this week and last. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and guest John Foley, who covers technology for the Lex column, take a look at all seven – with a nod to Berkshire Hathaway – and ask where they’re headed. Also we go long Reddit and long consumer sentiment. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedofferYou can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

It’s been a tough year for Boeing. It started with a door panel falling off of a plane in mid-flight. Then machinists at the company went on strike. This week, Boeing announced it would raise $19bn in an effort to keep its credit rating from being cut to junk. Today on the show, the FT’s Chicago correspondent Claire Bushey joins Rob Armstrong to discuss whether Boeing is too big to fail – and if it’s worth the wait for investors. Also, we go long Superstore and Halloween.For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedofferYou can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As betting markets and polls begin tentatively to suggest a Donald Trump election win, yields in 10-year Treasuries have risen. Some on Wall Street think that is because traders believe Trump will win, bringing with him inflationary spending and policies. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong discusses what the bond market knows with Derek Brower, the FT’s US political news editor. Also we go long Coca-Cola, and short a decisive election result.  For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedofferYou can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Citadel, XTX and Jane Street have come to dominate trading on Wall Street, and not just in equities. They now run a huge proportion of trading in currency and bonds, something the banks used to own. But where did they come from, why have so few people heard of them, and how did they get so big? Today on the show, Katie Martin and Robin Wigglesworth discuss the massive growth in the algorithmic trading firms. Also, they go long honesty, and long the upcoming FT Alphaville pub quiz in New York. Read the FT’s series about the new titans of Wall Street here. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedofferYou can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Nicolai Tangen oversees Norges Bank Investment Management, also known as Norway’s oil fund. It contains about $2tn in assets, based on money earned from drilling for oil offseas. Today on the show, Tangen talks with Katie Martin about everything from the European economy to China and Taiwan to overconcentration in the American stock markets. Also, Tangen goes long learning and short red tape. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedofferYou can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com. Unhedged has been nominated for a Signal Award! You can vote for us here: https://vote.signalaward.com/PublicVoting#/2024/shows/general/money-financeRead a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Grouping the majority of the world’s economies into a basket labelled “emerging markets” and trying to generalise about them is a fool’s errand. And we are perfect for the job. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Aiden Reiter discuss the EM landscape and pay particular attention to Brazil’s hot economy. Also we go long Poppy Gustafsson and short Netflix’s research department. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedofferYou can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com. Unhedged has been nominated for a Signal Award! You can vote for us here: https://vote.signalaward.com/PublicVoting#/2024/shows/general/money-financeRead a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.