VREF | The Truth About the Aviation Market

Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF Aircraft Value Reference & Appraisal ServicesIntroductionIn this episode of The Truth About the Market, VREF CEO Jason Zilberbrand pulls apart two of the biggest myths driving poor aircraft buying decisions: the illusion of “free jets” through bonus depreciation, and the herd mentality of chasing the most popular aircraft rather than the one that fits your mission and budget.Jason brings over three decades of valuation expertise and market cycle experience to expose the hard truths behind aircraft ownership—and why Instagram hype, LinkedIn posts, and sales pitches often distort reality.Topics Covered1. The Bonus Depreciation MythHow bonus depreciation actually works versus how it’s sold.Why you only benefit if you already have large, predictable taxable income.The realities of debt service, operating costs, and the IRS’s recapture rule upon resale.Why jets are never “free”—and how misusing tax rules can lead to massive surprises later.2. The Aircraft Popularity ContestWhy buyers often choose aircraft based on hype, brand image, or peer influence.The long-term pitfalls of buying too big, too old, or too trendy.Why the strongest buys are often the less “sexy” aircraft—trainers, turboprops, mid-cabins—with deeper support networks and lower operating costs.How fractional operators and fleet owners dominate certain markets and leave individual buyers holding the bag when values collapse.3. The Reality of Aircraft OwnershipThe hidden costs and attention that come with operating a jet.Why ownership is never just the bill of sale—it’s ongoing maintenance, crew, support, and unpredictability.Jason’s own experience with the “honeymoon period” of ownership and how quickly the bills (and mechanical surprises) add up.Hear the podcast and see the full show notes at https://vref.com/news/episode-2-the-free-jet-myth-the-aircraft-popularity-contest-8-26-25/Contact: 📧 Jason@vref.com 🌐 vref.com

Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF Aircraft Value Reference & Appraisal ServicesIntroductionHi everyone, and welcome to the very first episode of The Truth About the Market.I'm your host, Jason Zilberbrand—President of VREF, long-time aviation appraiser, and someone who's spent over three decades deep in this industry. I've worked with everyone from individual owners to Fortune 50 operators. I've testified as an expert witness in major litigation. I've seen more cycles than I can count.This podcast is about cutting through the BS—no fluff, no marketing spin, no sponsors. Just the unfiltered truth about aviation, aircraft values, and the industry trends that actually matter.Today, we're tackling three big topics:The summer slowdownThe impact of tariffs and supply chain issuesWhat the back half of 2025 might actually look likeThe Pre-Owned Aircraft Market is SofteningWhat everyone sees—but not everyone wants to admit—is that the pre-owned aircraft market is softening quickly.Inventories are rising across the board.Days on market are increasing.Even normally insulated categories like medium jets, light jets, and turboprops are affected.Prices are coming down.Many buyers are sitting on the sidelines, waiting for direction. Geopolitical instability—two escalating wars and the potential for U.S. involvement—certainly isn't helping.Beyond Geopolitics: The Bigger PictureWhile wars, interest rates, and stock market health are important, they don't fully explain the current shift. Looking at the bigger picture:Sales requests and financing requests are slowing.Defaults are starting to rise.This isn't the usual seasonal pattern.Seasonal Slowdowns vs. This SummerFor those new to the industry, summer is often slower:Owners use their aircraft for vacations and events.Kids are out of school.Dealers prepare inventory in winter for spring sales.On the business jet side, summers have historically been so slow that brokerages sometimes closed early on Fridays. But this summer feels different—there's more going on.Post-COVID Market CycleTypical ownership cycles run 3–5 years. Many aircraft bought during the post-COVID buying rush are now hitting the market—often at overpaid prices.Prices are correcting back to pre-COVID levels.Demand is also back to pre-COVID norms.Trainer aircraft (C172, DA20, C182) remain strong due to limited supply, but all aircraft have a natural price ceiling—when they get too expensive, they compete with higher-category aircraft.......Hear the podcast and see the full show notes at https://vref.com/news/the-truth-about-the-aviation-market-episode-1-8-8-25/Contact: 📧 Jason@vref.com 🌐 vref.com