VREF | The Truth About the Aviation Market

Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF Aircraft Value Reference & Appraisal ServicesSummaryIn one of the most revealing episodes yet, Jason pulls back the curtain on three of the aviation industry’s most misunderstood—and often misused—practices: off-market aircraft, back-to-back transactions, and the broker’s role in 2025. He explains why these deals tempt buyers and sellers alike with promises of speed, exclusivity, and discretion—and why, more often than not, they lead straight into confusion, inflated prices, and even fraud.Drawing on decades of hands-on experience as a dealer, appraiser, and expert witness, Jason dissects how these structures work, where they go wrong, and how a skilled broker can be the difference between a seamless closing and a financial disaster.Topics CoveredThe Illusion of the “Off-Market” AdvantageWhy exclusivity, speed, and confidentiality attract buyers.How real off-market opportunities differ from rumor-based listings.The role of trusted broker networks in legitimate private transactions.When “Off-Market” Turns UglyThe dangers of price opacity and multiple false listings.How missing serial numbers, fake mandates, and altered specs erode trust.Case examples of fraudulent transactions, missing logbooks, and hidden liens.Why buyers have fewer consumer protections purchasing an aircraft than a car.Understanding Back-to-Back TransactionsWhat a back-to-back actually is—and why it’s often misunderstood.How they’re used to disguise markups, hide commissions, or inflate prices.Real-world consequences: lawsuits, escrow confusion, and legal exposure.The rare cases where a properly disclosed back-to-back can serve a legitimate purpose.Historical Context and Modern ParallelsHow the Wright Brothers’ early sales disputes mirror today’s representation chaos.Why transparency problems have been baked into aviation since its inception.More show notes can be found at https://vref.com/news/episode-7-the-truth-about-off-market-aircraft-back-to-back-deals-and-why-you-still-need-a-broker-10-16-25/Quotable Moments“You have more consumer protection buying a dishwasher than buying an airplane.” “Transparency isn’t bureaucracy—it’s protection.” “A good broker is your shield. A bad deal is your lawsuit waiting to happen.”Listen NowHear Episode 7 of The Truth About the Market wherever you get your podcasts, or stream it directly at VREF.com/podcast.Call to ActionTo explore current aircraft values and learn how real-world transparency impacts pricing, visit VREF.com. For market data, appraisals, or guidance on your next acquisition or sale, contact jason@vref.com.

Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF Aircraft Value Reference & Appraisal ServicesOverviewIn this episode of The Truth About the Market, Jason turns the spotlight on the aviation community itself. Drawing from the latest VREF Market Sentiment Survey, which gathered responses from over 1,000 buyers, sellers, brokers, lenders, and operators, he breaks down what people across the industry are seeing, feeling, and planning for as 2025 comes to a close.From shifting inventory trends and rising operating costs to tightening loan conditions and the widening gap between buyer optimism and seller expectations, Jason walks through the key insights that define today’s market. This isn’t speculation—it’s a direct look at what aviation professionals are actually saying about the year ahead.In This EpisodeMarket Mood: The community is evenly divided between optimism, caution, and pessimism—a sign of a truly transitional market.Inventory Trends: Aircraft are taking longer to sell as buyers slow down and sellers recalibrate pricing.Financing and Affordability: Interest rates, stricter LTV ratios, and higher costs are reshaping purchase behavior across all segments.Maintenance and Upgrades: MRO backlogs, high costs, and split opinions on engine programs are affecting both resale and operations.Regional Differences: U.S. respondents cite financing concerns, Europeans focus on sustainability, Latin Americans on parts and skilled labor, and Middle Eastern and Asian buyers on access to new aircraft.Buyer Priorities: Transparency, clear pedigree, fewer pre-buy surprises, and more flexible lending options top the list of what customers want most.Market Heat Map: Jason identifies which aircraft are selling fast, which are stabilizing, and which are now deep in buyer’s market territory.Negotiation Strategy: How to read days-on-market data, act decisively in hot segments, and stay patient when leverage shifts.Jason’s Takeaway“We’re not looking at a collapse—we’re looking at normalization. The frenzy is over, and the market is finding its balance again. This is where informed buyers and realistic sellers both win. In aviation today, certainty and clarity are the new currency.”Listen Now If You Want ToUnderstand how your peers are viewing the next 12 months of the marketLearn which aircraft segments are holding value and which are softeningGet Jason’s guidance on pricing, financing, and remarketing strategyBenchmark your expectations against real, data-backed industry sentimentSee the Full ReportFor charts, detailed breakdowns, and Jason’s complete written analysis of the 2025 VREF Market Sentiment Survey, visit vref.com/results.

Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF Aircraft Value Reference & Appraisal ServicesIntroduction“Can I afford that airplane?” Jason tackles the question he hears every week—moving past listing prices to the real math behind financing structures, down payments, LTV, amortization, liquidity and net-worth requirements, fixed vs. variable operating costs, and practical rules of thumb. With real aircraft examples and monthly/annual budget breakdowns, this episode shows how to evaluate affordability without getting blindsided.Topics Covered1) Myth-Busting: Asking Price ≠ AffordabilityAffordability = (Upfront cash) + (Financing terms) + (Ongoing operating costs).Airplanes are more like commercial assets than cars; regulations and maintenance make the cost stack steeper and more complex.2) How Aircraft Financing Really WorksLoan-to-Value (LTV): Typical ranges 70–85%; older/large-cabin jets often tighter.Down payment: Usually 15–30% of purchase price (or appraised value, if lower).Terms & amortization: Commonly 5–15 years; balloons frequent on larger jets.Rates (contextual): Recent deals in the low-to-mid 6–7% range, credit- and asset-dependent.Credit vs. collateral: Most lenders are credit-first; collateral-based loans trade speed for higher rates, bigger down, stricter covenants, reappraisals, and faster repos if covenants break.3) Real-World Examples (Illustrative Math)Citation (light jet), $3.5M:25% down = $875k; finance $2.625M @ ~7.25% / 15 yrs ≈ $23.8k/mo debt service.Add maintenance reserves/programs ≈ $10–15k/mo (contextual).Typical expectations: net worth $10–15M, liquidity ≈ 10–15% of loan + 12 months payments.Complete show notes at https://vref.com/news/episode-5-can-i-afford-that-airplane-9-29-25Closing & Next EpisodeEpisode 5 lays out the real math of ownership so you can answer, “Can I afford that airplane?” with confidence.Next up: deeper dives into DOC/FOC modeling and how to structure ownership (solo, fractional, partnerships) without blowing up your budget—or your relationships.Let VREF help you value your aircraft

IntroductionA single dent can erase seven figures from a jet’s value. In this episode, Jason unpacks one of aviation’s most misunderstood—and expensive—topics: damage. Drawing on decades of appraising, federal litigation experience, and a personal war story (a Lear 45 tail strike in a hangar), he explains why damage isn’t a checkbox or a one-size deduction. It’s a nuanced blend of market psychology, documentation, repair quality, and timing—and getting it wrong can cost millions.Topics Covered1) Why Damage Matters (and What It Isn’t)Diminution of value ≠ airworthiness. Returning an aircraft to service doesn’t erase market stigma.Emotional and reputational effects drive real pricing outcomes—especially with high-value business jets.Comparables from other asset classes (exotics, vintage instruments): pedigree and history reshape demand.2) Core Valuation Criteria for DamageDynamic vs. static incidents: under power/motion typically carries larger deductions than at-rest/tow events.Repair method & provider: OEM/authorized facilities and factory parts are rewarded by the market; third-tier or vague repairs increase stigma.Workscope & records: completeness, clarity, and no “pencil-whipped” entries; missing logs create pedigree risk and amplify buyer scrutiny.Searchability & publicity: online news/photos can permanently brand an airframe, regardless of technical repair quality.Asset & market context: age, cycles, engine programs, fleet size, buyer demand, and inventory levels influence how much discount the market demands.3) Market Cycles & StigmaTight inventory = more forgiveness. Hot markets (e.g., COVID era) moved damaged aircraft with smaller discounts.Soft markets = bigger discounts. When buyers have choices, stigma costs more.4) Science vs. ArtScience (measurable): equipment list, repair invoices, sales history, fleet behavior.Art (buyer psychology): two identical aircraft—only one with a damage entry—rarely trade for the same number.See full show notes at .... https://vref.com/news/episode-4-how-does-damage-effect-aircraft-value/Closing & Next EpisodeEpisode 4 demystifies damage—what actually drives value hits and how to recover them. Next up: real-world damage war stories, deeper dives on documentation pitfalls, and how to price stigma over time. Subscribe on your favorite platform and reach Jason at Jason@vref.com if you want a case discussed (anonymized) in a future episode.Podcast theme music by Transistor.fm.

Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF Aircraft Value Reference & Appraisal ServicesIntroductionJason pulls back the curtain on aircraft valuation—what it is, what it isn’t, and how bad inputs (or bad actors) can warp the number you’re relying on. Building on Episode 2 (bonus depreciation myths and popularity traps), this episode shows exactly how to value an aircraft and how the new VREF software makes the process transparent, defensible, and repeatable for buyers, sellers, brokers, lenders, and insurers.Topics Covered1) Why Aircraft Valuation Is Harder Than Cars, RVs, or BoatsSmall fleets, unique histories, and limited public sales data.“Comps” without context are dangerous—closing numbers rarely reveal the real configuration, condition, or concessions.2) The Good: A Correct, Defensible Valuation WorkflowEnter the fundamentals correctly: airframe time, engine time since overhaul, accurate TBO (now fully editable in VREF), program status (on/off), paint/interior condition, avionics, and STCs.VREF outputs multiple value types: Fair Market (Retail), Wholesale, Orderly Liquidation, Forced Liquidation, Inventory, Scrap—with clear use cases.What each means (plain English):Fair Market (Retail): USPAP/IRS/ASA-defined “willing buyer/willing seller” in open market—this is the everyday benchmark.Orderly Liquidation: distressed sale, broker has time to sell post-default/repo.Forced Liquidation: auction-level distress—sell fast, get what you can.Inventory Value: dealer carry-cost perspective (e.g., ~90 days).Wholesale: multi-unit discount or special-use/soft markets; use sparingly for common aircraft.Scrap (not Salvage): raw metal value if no productive use remains; salvage/parting-out is too variable for software (consulting required).3) The Bad: Common User Errors That Skew ValuesMissing overhaul status or using “top overhaul” in the major overhaul box (don’t).Forgetting to toggle engine program coverage.Over-crediting avionics or double-counting options (e.g., Cirrus SR22 GTS options applied twice).Skipping the condition tab (leaving $50–60k on the table on pistons with fresh paint/interior).Not crediting factory reman, hot sections, or midlife on turbines.Confusing asking prices with actual market (throw out the extremes; many listings are aspirational or strategic)....NOTE: you can see full content description at https://vref.com/news/episode-3-the-good-the-bad-and-the-manipulated-how-aircraft-valuations-really-work

Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF Aircraft Value Reference & Appraisal ServicesIntroductionIn this episode of The Truth About the Market, VREF CEO Jason Zilberbrand pulls apart two of the biggest myths driving poor aircraft buying decisions: the illusion of “free jets” through bonus depreciation, and the herd mentality of chasing the most popular aircraft rather than the one that fits your mission and budget.Jason brings over three decades of valuation expertise and market cycle experience to expose the hard truths behind aircraft ownership—and why Instagram hype, LinkedIn posts, and sales pitches often distort reality.Topics Covered1. The Bonus Depreciation MythHow bonus depreciation actually works versus how it’s sold.Why you only benefit if you already have large, predictable taxable income.The realities of debt service, operating costs, and the IRS’s recapture rule upon resale.Why jets are never “free”—and how misusing tax rules can lead to massive surprises later.2. The Aircraft Popularity ContestWhy buyers often choose aircraft based on hype, brand image, or peer influence.The long-term pitfalls of buying too big, too old, or too trendy.Why the strongest buys are often the less “sexy” aircraft—trainers, turboprops, mid-cabins—with deeper support networks and lower operating costs.How fractional operators and fleet owners dominate certain markets and leave individual buyers holding the bag when values collapse.3. The Reality of Aircraft OwnershipThe hidden costs and attention that come with operating a jet.Why ownership is never just the bill of sale—it’s ongoing maintenance, crew, support, and unpredictability.Jason’s own experience with the “honeymoon period” of ownership and how quickly the bills (and mechanical surprises) add up.Hear the podcast and see the full show notes at https://vref.com/news/episode-2-the-free-jet-myth-the-aircraft-popularity-contest-8-26-25/Contact: 📧 Jason@vref.com 🌐 vref.com

Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF Aircraft Value Reference & Appraisal ServicesIntroductionHi everyone, and welcome to the very first episode of The Truth About the Market.I'm your host, Jason Zilberbrand—President of VREF, long-time aviation appraiser, and someone who's spent over three decades deep in this industry. I've worked with everyone from individual owners to Fortune 50 operators. I've testified as an expert witness in major litigation. I've seen more cycles than I can count.This podcast is about cutting through the BS—no fluff, no marketing spin, no sponsors. Just the unfiltered truth about aviation, aircraft values, and the industry trends that actually matter.Today, we're tackling three big topics:The summer slowdownThe impact of tariffs and supply chain issuesWhat the back half of 2025 might actually look likeThe Pre-Owned Aircraft Market is SofteningWhat everyone sees—but not everyone wants to admit—is that the pre-owned aircraft market is softening quickly.Inventories are rising across the board.Days on market are increasing.Even normally insulated categories like medium jets, light jets, and turboprops are affected.Prices are coming down.Many buyers are sitting on the sidelines, waiting for direction. Geopolitical instability—two escalating wars and the potential for U.S. involvement—certainly isn't helping.Beyond Geopolitics: The Bigger PictureWhile wars, interest rates, and stock market health are important, they don't fully explain the current shift. Looking at the bigger picture:Sales requests and financing requests are slowing.Defaults are starting to rise.This isn't the usual seasonal pattern.Seasonal Slowdowns vs. This SummerFor those new to the industry, summer is often slower:Owners use their aircraft for vacations and events.Kids are out of school.Dealers prepare inventory in winter for spring sales.On the business jet side, summers have historically been so slow that brokerages sometimes closed early on Fridays. But this summer feels different—there's more going on.Post-COVID Market CycleTypical ownership cycles run 3–5 years. Many aircraft bought during the post-COVID buying rush are now hitting the market—often at overpaid prices.Prices are correcting back to pre-COVID levels.Demand is also back to pre-COVID norms.Trainer aircraft (C172, DA20, C182) remain strong due to limited supply, but all aircraft have a natural price ceiling—when they get too expensive, they compete with higher-category aircraft.......Hear the podcast and see the full show notes at https://vref.com/news/the-truth-about-the-aviation-market-episode-1-8-8-25/Contact: 📧 Jason@vref.com 🌐 vref.com