This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Credit card loan losses. They’re at the highest level in 13 years despite unemployment at historically low levels. Does that make sense? 2. Bank lender risk appetite. The latest Senior Loan Officer Survey is out. We’ll tell you what you need to know. 3. Direct lending into the middle market. A new KBRA report, which has gotten a lot of market attention, sheds much-needed light on asset quality trends.
This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Good things coming to an end. We’re still not normal, but we’re heading there. 2. Bankruptcy trends. A recent shift in trend is noteworthy. 3. Thresholds. Things—that when crossed—shift sentiment.
This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Big bank color. We’ll summarize what some of the largest lenders are seeing in credit. 2. Net worth surge. It’s driving the consumers’ confidence to spend. 3. Treasury volatility. A Fed pivot of the unfavorable kind.
This week, our 3 Things are: 1. The CPI print. Is it really shocking? 2. Earnings season. A third consecutive quarter of earnings growth is forecast but peel this onion a bit and you’ll find some troubling undertones. 3. Event risk. It’s been relatively quiet.
This week, our 3 Things are: Small business signals. A good place to look for slowdown. Single-B spreads at 16-year tights. Does that make sense? Apparel company guidance. Have you been paying attention?
This week, our 3 Things are: Slack. It’s growing in the labor and industrial markets. Equity euphoria. A surprising view of what’s ahead. Consumer lenders. Risk investors are making a noteworthy distinction.
This week our three things are: U.S. exceptionalism. Efficient capital markets are a big part. C-suite confidence. It’s building. Banks, a year later. Here’s what we learned, a year after the “March events.”
This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Powell’s dilemma. To cut or not to cut. It’s not just data dependent. We’ll explain. 2. FICO scores. They’ve hooked over for the first time in a decade. What does that mean? 3. Direct lending default and recovery rate surprises. Eric Rosenthal is along to bring you up to date.
This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Commodities downdraft. Historically, that move can be good or bad—we’ll give you our thoughts. 2. Cost of equity versus cost of debt. What does the Fed make of this? 3. A “choiceful” consumer. What that means for all-important spending.
This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Commercial real estate threat to banks. We’ll provide some much-needed facts. 2. Shifting to slowdown. Here’s how corporate earnings growth is impacted. 3. Private credit borrowers. Ares’ description is useful context.
This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Credit’s strong technicals. It will help you get comfortable with tight spreads. 2. Market volatility. It’s awakened in equities. Should credit keep pace? 3. “Hot” CPI versus “cold” retail sales. Has the broader narrative changed?
This week, our 3 Things are: Credit card delinquencies. It’s all over the press. We’ll tell you whether or not to be worried. Updated SLOOS. How are bankers thinking about lending in this environment? Barkin wisdom. The head of the Richmond Fed challenges Fedspeak.
This week, our 3 Things are: 1. New York Community Bank. An evolving story; here’s what it means to the broader macro story. 2. Nonbanks. They continue to take share from banks. That’s a good thing. 3. IMF’s latest global economic outlook. It’s actually tilting toward bullish.
This week, our 3 Things are: 1. That GDP report. Everyone—literally everyone—missed this. Here are our takeaways. 2. Narrowness. Beware of the aggregate statistic. 3. Earnings warnings. Underneath market euphoria is some sobering guidance.
This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Anatomy of a soft landing. We’ll walk you through our building blocks. 2. Big bank color. Our latest update on how the largest lenders are seeing credit. 3. Private credit maturity wall. Here’s the data.
This week, our 3 Things are: 1. The rise in problem loans at banks. Should we be worried? 2. Geopolitical risks. The radar is getting crowded. 3. KBRA Analytics default forecast. We’ve got a non-consensus view.
This week, our 3 Things are: 1. The banks are alright. Questions as to the viability of the business model are misplaced. 2. Sentiment split. Folks are split on the recession call and risk valuations. Here’s what that means. 3. Financial conditions. They might not be as loose as you’ve heard. Here’s a measure worth considering.
This week, our 3 Things are: Great Monetary Pivot. Back to the future. Big risks. Is the U.S. election one of them? Market fear. Some measures have it at a low point. Does that make sense?
This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Tight spreads. There’s a lot underpinning this view. 2. Beige blues. There’s a turn in the Fed’s colorful book. 3. Consumer leverage. There’s an interesting look across income groups.
This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Rates volatility. What in the world is going on? 2. Consumer dry powder. Apparently, it’s much stronger than previously forecast. 3. Energy price relief. Markets have settled down, for now.