WA DAWGS PODCAST

2023 NFL Week 17 Our leans for week 17. Our contests are not looking good, but we are not giving up. Fingers crossed. Buffalo Bills: -12 I know its a ton of points, but come on, it NE. I just can’t take those points, so going chalk and taking the Bills this week. If any team is going to lose by 12 points, its the Patriots.  LA Rams: -4.5/-5.5 Fade the Giants and jump on the Rams. It might be a public pick, but feeling the Rams are going to easily cover, if not win by two TDs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: -3 Tampa Bay and ATL are both vying for the leader of their division. NO is only playing for spoiler bc they are out of the playoffs. I could def see TB wining this games and covering the points.  Seattle Seahawks: -3.5 This is a good spot for the Seahawks and and good fade for the Steelers. Steelers were a great cover and win last week against the Bengals. Rudolph is not going to have the game he had last week. In fact, I could see one of his mates throwing their helmet at him.  Green Bay Packers: +2 After that awful loss last week, fade the Vikings. The Vikings should have won that game last week. This is a good spot for GB to not only cover but actually win the game outright.  Good luck to everyone and their teams -WA DAWGS

WAD 016 - 2023 NFL Week 16  Can We Make Up Some Ground This Week? Please!  Have to keep this short and sweet. Our Mean Leans Week 16: This is a tough week. Circa and Westgate: Denver Broncos -6/-6.5: Yes, it's chalky. Yes, it's a public fav. But come on, it's the NE Patriots. ATL Falcons -1: Just plan on fading the public road dog, Colts. Cuz road dogs die. Cleveland Browns: Math #s show a lean toward the Browns, and Houston’s QB is out. KC Chiefs -10: Fading the Raiders after their humongous win over LA last week. And KC always has the Raiders card.  Carolina Panthers +4.5/+5: Fading the huge public fav GB Packers and hoping to cover. Snoqualmie Beat the Point Spread Pigskin Pick ‘Em: (local Washington casino) Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5: Yes, get them at a +2.5. I like the extra value, and it's a good place for the Steelers after their disappointing loss last week. And fading the Bengals after that awesome ending and win against Minnesota.  Cleveland Browns: Math #s show a lean toward the Browns, and Houston’s QB is out. ATL Falcons: +2: We get them at a +2 at Snoqualmie. Taking that value and fading the public road dog.  KC Chiefs -10: Fading the Raiders. And KC plays well at home and I think they will easily make this cover and possibly more.  Philadelphia Eagles -10.5: We get them at a -10.5 instead of the other books at a -12.5 and -13 in some places. Feel like we are getting Philadelphia on sale. Okay, gotta run and shop and get ready for Christmas.  Merry Christmas, Happy New Year, Happy Holidays, and Happy Football to you all. Love, WA DAWGS

WAD 015 - 2023 NFL Week 15 Welcome back to WA DAWGS! Its week 15 and this week looks Brutal with a capitol B. Leans For Week 15: Las Vegas Raiders: At home Thursday night against a backup QB with a coach in the hangsman’s noose. Raiders are going to take this game by storm. Las Vegas Raider fans are almost as loud at the Seahwks fans. I can see the offense and the defense of the Raiders team working in tandem without a flaw to steal the show. Pittsburgh Steelers: I know the Steelers look like trash, but I think this is their week to win.  Remarkably they have had pretty good luck this season. For looking like a big turd, they could get the wild card. So they have to win this game to stay in the running.  Detroit Lions: They are a good team. Yes, they might have looked drab and Goff looked and played like he has mono. But I think this is their time to grab this game and take smoke Denver. My math model has value on the Lions. And they are at home primetime on Saturday, plus Goff plays great on turf, making this a good pick.  Chicago Bears: Not really to certain about this one. But I’m going public dog on this one. Which I know, public dogs die. But they are playing really well and I could see this is a good time to fade the Browns after that awesome win over Jacksonville last week. Still unsure of this one, so its just a lean, might change my mind later today.  Dallas Cowboys: Getting points on Dallas looks appealing. Our math model shows favor to Dallas. The public is all over the Bills according to Covers.com. Which makes me want to fade the Bills. Plus Dallas and Philadelphia are neck and neck, so Dallas must win this game. Bc it is going to come down to the best record between Dallas and Philadelphia for the division. And after that great win the Bills had over KC, its a good time to fade em.  Good luck to you all! WA DAWGS

2023 NFL Week 14: Hanging In There Leans for Week 14 NFL: Our picks for the Circa Millions and Westgate SuperContest   New York Jets: +3.5 at Circa Millions and Westgate SuperContest This is a good spot for the Jets to cover and a good time to fade Houston. The weather could be rainy, which put a wrench in Houston’s throwing offense. And the Jets' defense, at home, could even win the game between these two. We are picking the Jets’ defense to cover this spread. New York Giants: -6.5 at Circa Millions and Westgate SuperContest Feel that Green Bay is overvalued after their last couple of wins. And the Giants are starting to put up a fight, and looking better with the new QB. Plus, it’s Monday night, and the Giants are a home dog.    Baltimore Ravens: -7 at Circa Millions, and -7.5 at Westgate SuperContest  This might be a chalky square bet, but I like the Ravens in this matchup. Ravens are at home, and after a bye, I think they could easily cover. The Ravens have a great running game. And it's supposed to rain a lot, which could disrupt LA’s throwing offense.  Miami Dolphins: -13 at Circa Millions, and -13 at Westgate SuperContest Miami always seems to beat up bad teams. Tennesee played so hard last week to lose that divisional game to the Colts. Even though the Titans had so many chances to win that game. I think the Dolphins could easily win by two touchdowns.  Indianapolis Colts: -1 at Circa Millions, and PK at Westgate SuperContest It’s a short week for Cincinnati. And there is a stat that shows double-digit dogs that outright win will rarely win the next game. After Cincinnati’s battle with Jacksonville last week, it's a good time to fade them.  Side Note: we are also playing the Beat the Point Spread Pigckin Pick Em’ at our local Snoqualmie casino. And they have different spreads than the Circa Millions and Westgate Supercontest. So we ended up changing our 5 ATS games from what we picked at Circa and Westgate. We got Seattle Seahawks at a +12.5, as opposed to 10.5 at the other books. Love the extra 2points of value there. And we got Cleveland at a +3 instead of the -3.0, -3.5. Which is 6 points of value, so we had to take Cleveland. Hope it works out to our advantage. Snoqualmie Casino: Cleveland +3 Seattle +12.5 New York Jets +6 (yes! It was a +6 there) Miami -13.5 Baltimore -7.5 Fingers crossed for week 14. Best of luck to you all

2023 NFL Week 13: All Busted Up Last week was brutal—no need to rehash our fails. But needless to say, we are not quitting our day jobs anytime soon. Who knows where we are on Circa Millions? We spiraled and lost our way down on the list of contestants in the Westgate SuperContest. But we are #3 in our local casino, the Snoqualmie Casino, Beat the Point Spread Pigskin Pick ‘em. We are not quitters, so we will not give up and hope for a good bounce back.  Leans for Week 13 NFL:   Tennesee Titans: The Titans were my favorite game last week, and I am def leaning toward them this week. They are playing the Colts in a divisional game. I know what you are thinking. Stay away from divisional games, but I like this one. Not only does Mike Vrabel do well as an underdog (+1 or +2, depending on the book), they are at home. The team overall is looking more revitalized and ready to tackle (no pun intended) and win this game against the Colts. Although my math model didn’t point to this game, my instincts do. And my math model stunk last week anyway, so let’s go with the gut on this one.  Pittsburgh Steelers: I  heard a lot of sharps talk about Arizona. Listening to those wise guys really makes me question my #s, math, and sanity. While Kyler Murray has breathed some life into this team, I still cannot take the points on Az. The Steelers have been playing really well. That may be because they ditched Matt Canada, their offensive coordinator. Because they are looking better offensively. And I have the math on this valued a lot higher than a -5.5. And for some reason, Az is a public dog this week. Away, public dogs statistically take big dumps.  Washington Commanders:  Every time I take a chance on the Commanders, I get burned. But my math does point to Wa covering this 9.5 spread. Is Sam Howell going to have the game of his life? Hmm, probably not. But Miami’s defense is not that good, so if Howell throws some bullets, they could keep this game to a cover for Wa.  Plus, in Landover, Maryland, it might rain. Although, I don’t know if the mid-50s is considered cold for those Miami boys. Actually, I think I might already be talking myself out of this one. But ugly bets can cover.  Houston Texans: This looks like a good one for the Texans. Denver is trending up. But you know that Denver is not interested in this game. They absolutely need to win next week's game against the Chargers. This is a look-ahead game for Denver.  Green Bay Packers: After that behind-kicking GB gave Detroit on Thanksgiving, I can see why they are a public dog. I just really like the points on this one. I don’t expect the Packers to win, but it is Sunday primetime, where anything can happen. And getting 6 points for GB looks pretty darn good. I know public dogs usually dump, but they are at home, and it's Sunday night with all eyes on them.  Philadelphia Eagles vs San Fran 49ers: I initially loved the points on the Eagles at home. But all the money and bets and even sharps are on the 49ers. Public favorites always worry me. But from the casino’s view, if the Eagles cover, then they make a whole lot of money. And we all know the books make the $ over the average bettor. Both teams have no reason to win this game, per se. Maybe for a first-round bye, these teams may want to win. But the 49ers must stay healthy to focus on the Seahawks next week. And the Eagles need to get healthy and focus on Dallas next week. So this game is a look ahead for both teams. So I think taking the opposite of the fav might prove a nice cover. Or just may sit back and watch this one.  Good luck to all of you and your bets and games! WA DAWGS

2203 NFL Week 12 Season Heads STILL Hangin Low:  Talk about getting kicked while we are down! Week 11 was not good. We went 1 and 4 at both the Circa Millions and Westgate Supercontest. And 2 and 3 at our local Snoqualmie Beat the Point Spread Pigskin Pick ‘Em.  At this point, we are really questioning our sanity. These contests cause so many emotional ups and downs. I know, I know, you are thinking, ‘Journal it or see a therapist, just get on with the leans!’  BUT by the grace of some higher power, we are still in second place at our local casino Snoqualmie. So, never give up hope! Week 12 Leans: as of now, we are using the Circa lines, but we have not gotten the actual spreads for the contests yet. Detroit Lions -7.5 (over Green bay) I handicapped Detroit at a -13. So I see a lot of value on this one. I know, it's a division game on Thanksgiving. But Detroit has played on Thanksgiving since the dawn of time (or at least when I was a kid). And have always lost on Thanksgiving. But this is a different team on a winning streak. I see them winning by 14. Seattle Seahawks +7 (over 49er’s) Do I actually bet against the 49ers after the last two amazing victories? San Fran is on fire, and this is a divisional game. This is going to be a tough battle. But 7 points for the Seahawks at home in Seattle? Gino’s elbow is questionable. He is going to play, but how well. I do think Gino Smith plays better in an underdog role. But that elbow, no matter how much drugs are pumped into him, could be a hindrance. It’s a lean, but I'm still debating taking this one for the contests. Cincinnati Bengals +1.5 (over Pittsburgh) With Joe Burrow out, everyone is on the Steelers. But the Bengals are a good team, and with the new (QB) player ‘effect,’ I think the Bengals will get this one done with a win. I have no confidence in the Steelers, no matter how smart and cute their coach is. And my math model shows the Bengals at a -2.5. Tennessee Titans -3.5 (over Carolina) Even with a rookie QB I have this game handicapped at the Titans -5.5. So, I see value in the Titans at home. They are ready for a win, and why not against the lousy Panthers? So maybe I want to take this bc the Panthers are so bad.  NY Giants +3.5 (over NE) In last week's games, the QB for the Giants got sacked 6 times! And he kept getting back up. Just bc he lives with his mom doesn’t mean he is not tough. I wish I could live with my mom. She is an amazing cook and has no problem with wine on a Wednesday. But really, the Giants at home are getting points (love the home dogs). And it's NE. They are not, how do I put it politely? NE is just not that great, I have them ranked pretty much on par with the Giants. I see a few points of value for the Giants. Cleveland Browns +1.5 (over Denver) I like the Browns in this matchup. Their defense is outstanding, and I think they could win this game. My math model shows the Browns at a -3. And after that failed, sloppy two-point conversion the Broncos did on Sunday night, I cannot lay any points on Denver.  LA Rams +1 (over Arizona) My math model showed a couple of points of value for the Rams. Not really feeling this because it is a division game. And I find AZ plays well at home. Just found some value here on the Rams, but might pass on this one. Okay, tomorrow is November 23rd, 2024, Thanksgiving. Looking forward to hanging with family, stuffing our guts with good food, and watching football. What more could a gal ask for?  WADAWGS    

2023 NFL Week 11 - Heads Hangin Low Oh man, we are feeling beat up and humbled from week 10! We tanked, sank, and got destroyed last week. This week, we are picking ourselves up, spitting the dirt out, and ready to get back in the saddle for week 11. But we did so poorly. We only got a push and all losses at the Circa and Westgate. We fell fast and hard in that competition. Can we get back on top? Well, it really comes down to this week. We must get back on top this week to salvage any possible winnings and our pride. And to add salt to the wound, we got kicked out of Survivor at the Circa. Those darn Bengals lost, which stopped us in our tracks for the Survivor game. But it was so much fun, and can’t wait to get spanked next year when we sign right back up. There is a little silver lining, though. We won the first half of the Snoqualmie Casino’s contest called Beat the Point Spread Pick ‘Em and walked away with $3750. On to week 11! Maybe it's because of our bad beat last week (we took way too much chalk), but I'm feeling so conflicted. The lines at the Snoqualmie Casino differ from the Circa and Westgate, and we are taking different teams. Bc Snowqualmie uses older lines, and we got some real gifts. For example, Snoqualmie Casino (just for their contest) has Pittsburgh at a +4 over Cleveland, whereas Circa/Westgate has the spread at Pittsburgh +1. They also have Chicago at a +10 over Detroit, and Circa/Westgate has them at a +8/+7.5. So this is what we are thinking: Snoqualmie Casino Beat the Point Spread Pick ‘Em: - Chicago Bears +10 over the Detroit Lions - Pittsburgh Steelers +4 over the Cleveland Browns - Miami Dolphins -10 over the Las Vegas Raiders (Circa/Westgate are -13.5) - Carolina Panthers +11 over the Dallas Cowboys (Circa/Westgate are +10) - Debating between Jaguars -6.5 (Circa/Westgate are -7) or Broncos -1.5 (Circa/Westgate are -2.5) Circa and Westgate: - Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Just love the points on this one. While San Francisco killed the Jaguars last week. This is a look-ahead game bc the 49ers play the Seahawks next week in a very tough division rivalry. And on my math model, I have TB at +7.5, like the value here. - Carolina Panthers: love the points on this one, too! Yes, Dallas decimated the Giants last week. They don’t play as well at home, and it is a short week for them. Dallas has to play on Thursday, Thanksgiving, in a tough rivalry against the Commanders. Even though the coach, Frank Reich of the Panthers, is taking back offensive calls (not sure why, bc the offensive coordinator T Brown seems really good), I think it will be up to the Panther’s defense to hold tight. They don’t have to win, just cover. - Miami: To cover, they have to win by 14. That is a lot of points to lay, and kinda feeling it but still wavering. It's a good spot for Miami after that loss to KC in Germany and a bye last week. And as much as I love that new coach for LV, Antonio Pierce, come on, it's the Raiders. That’s all I got. It’s coming down to the 11th hour, and that is all I got. Leaning a tiny bit toward the Jets, Jacksonville (good comeback game?), Houston (I mean is Kyler Murray all that and a bag of chips?), and maybe Broncos (at home in Denver, prime time and everyone is on the Josh Dobbs bandwagon, public dawgs usually die). Okay, I’m off to meditate, pray, and bargain with the Gods. Good luck to you all and your bets. Let’s take a line from The Hunger Games, ‘May the odds be ever in your favor.’ Xox WA DAWGS

NFL Week 10: We Made Some Money! We made money this last week at the Snoqualmie Casino’s contest called Beat the Point Spread Pick ‘Em. Week 9 marked the halfway point in the contest, and the first-place prize was $3750. WA DAWGS was top-dawg, and we cashed in. We came in 6th place at Westgate, so we almost got a prize, as they have the top 1-5 winners cashing in. And at Circa Millions, we are nowhere near the top of the heap in that contest. But we did survive another week in the Circa Survivor contest.  Recap: Westgate Supercontest 4:1  Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 (WIN/Covered) Carolina Panthers +2.5 (LOSS) Baltimore Ravens -6 (WIN/Covered ) Philadelphia Eagles -3 (WIN/Covered) Las Vegas Raiders -1.5 (WIN/Covered) Circa Millions 3:2 New York Jets +3.5 (LOSS) Carolina Panthers +2.5 (LOSS) Baltimore Ravens -6 (WIN/Covered ) Philadelphia Eagles -3 (WIN/Covered) Las Vegas Raiders -2 (WIN/Covered) Beat the Point Spread Pigskin Pick ‘Em at the Snoqualmie casino in Washington State: 3 wins/1 push/ one loss Cleveland Browns (WIN/Covered) Carolina Panthers +2.5 (LOSS) Baltimore Ravens -5.5 (WIN/Covered ) Philadelphia Eagles -3 (WIN/Covered) New Orleans -7 (PUSHED) Circa Survivor contest: We survived by taking the Browns (beating the Cardinals). On to our leans! 2023 NFL Week 10 Leans: Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 Let's talk chalk here. The Bengals have been on a roll, and I don’t think they are looking to fade. Houston is coming off a good win, and def a spot to fade them here. My math shows more neutral value here, but our guts and instincts say, take the Bengals. They need to keep winning bc their division is tough. And I think Burrow and the team are clicking on every level. Seattle Seahawks -6.5 Can we get any more chalkier? Well, yes, we can. And that is by taking the Seahawks. They had a terrible bad beat last week in Baltimore. They are at home, making this a good time for a bounce-back week. Washington is pretty inconsistent, and after that win last week, let’s fade them. And I do have Seattle handicapped more at a -7.5 so that one point of value is convincing to me.  Jacksonville Jaguars +3 I know exactly what you are thinking. Are the 49ers losing ANOTHER game?? Yes, they don’t have to lose. And I would love to take 3 points on Jacksonville at home. With the 49ers injuries, I like the at-home dawg. Plus, I have this game more at a pick ‘em.  Pittsburgh Steelers - 3 I know the Steelers are kind of hot/cold this season. But they are at home, and it’s Green Bay. Am I just betting against Green Bay because they have been so poor this season? Or betting for the Steelers because they have been so good? It’s the former. There are a few other leans, but I still dwell on them. I like ATL for the win. I know Kyler Murray is back. But it has been like 18 months since he played a game. There is going to be some serious rust.  How could you not pine for the points on the Broncos (+7.5) and the Browns (+6)? Rob is leaning toward Detroit, and I have a couple of value points on the Chargers. Also, the Jets look good as a bounce-back, and I have 1.5 points of value on them. Circa Survivor Lean: We have used up a lot of great teams, so our pickings are starting to slim. This week leaning toward the Bengals to win and survive to week 11.  There are 9 weeks left. And we are looking, hoping, and praying to pull up the ranks at the Westgate, keep surviving the Circa Survivor, and stay on top of the Beat the Point Spread Pigskin Pick ‘Em at the Snoqualmie casino. I might be an optimist at heart, but rising in the Circa Millions contest, considering where we are at now…Well, that is going to be a tough act to pull off. But hey, it’s NFL football, where anything can happen. Good Luck to everyone’s picks and teams!

Ready for a BounceBack! With hat in hand, we are back to try and win some victories for week 9. After our stunning week 7, we collapsed in week 8. We went a lousy 2:3 in the Circa Millions and Westgate Supercontest. Just like Frank, the original George said, ‘You’re riding high in April, shot down in May.’ We were riding high in week 7 and got totally shot down in week 8. For week 9, we will pick ourselves up and get back in the race.  Recap: Westgate Supercontest and Circa Millions 2:3 Houston -3 (LOSS) Green Bay pk (LOSS) Washington +6.5 (LOSS) Detroit -8.5 (Covered) Miami -9 (Covered) But we actually did a little better in the Beat the Point Spread Pigskin Pick ‘Em at the Snoqualmie casino in Washington State. And by the hair of our chinny chin chins, we are still in first place there. We did 3:2 at our local home casino. Houston -3 (LOSS) Washington +6.5 (LOSS) Detroit -8.5 (Covered) Seattle -2.5 (Covered) Cincinnati +6 (Covered) Plus, we are still in the Circa Survivor contest because we took the Chargers, and they beat the Bears.   Circa Survivor Week 9: We are considering taking the Browns (against AZ) or the Saints (against Chicago). We have already taken a lot of the top-ranking teams so far. But we are still in the game, which is what matters to us. We are leaning more toward Cleaveland right now, but still have a little time to change our minds.  Week 9 ATS Leans: Buffalo Bills: Yes, this could be a shoot-out, but I love getting points on the Bills. They had a long week since that Thursday night game. And this is a good letdown spot after Dallas won hugely against the mediocre Rams team. And my handicapping shows this as more of a +.5 or pick‘em game. I like the added value for the Bills. New York Jets:  The Jets have done really well, considering their star QB was out the first game of the season. But there are some amazing players on that Jets team. This is a good letdown spot for the Chargers after the win against the Bears. Plus, traveling west to the east coast can be tough for the Chargers. And I have this game at more of a pick’em. The Jets are an at-home dawg, getting points on Monday night.  I’ll take the Jets.  Washington Commanders: While the Commanders let me down last week (I know, I know that was on me), I am still ready to retake the Commanders this week. I have Washington as a +1. So I am all about taking the points (+3.5) for Washington. And still can’t say I have a lot of faith in NE at the moment. Cleveland Browns: I really like the Browns in this spot. They are at home, and they are ready to bounce back after their loss to Seattle in week 8. Arizona has a rookie quarterback. So, the strong Browns defense will have that new QB scrambling all over the place. While -8 is a lot of points to pay, I actually have the Browns at -11. So I like the value on the Browns.  Right now, I only have four leans. I need to work on the numbers and think/talk more about the other games. Maybe LV, bc we loved the new coach, Antonio Pierce’s talk at the press conference. Maybe the LA Rams if Matty Stafford plays, or perhaps KC as a bounce-back in Germany against Miami. Not sure yet, but I can say for sure Wa Dawgs is ready to change that week 8 tune and get back on top in week 9! Thank you for listening to the WA DAWGS podcast, and wishing you all a great week 9 of NFL football.

We are back! Last week, we pulled out some great covers to bounce back from the horrific 4-1 week six. Week 7 Recap: Westgate Supercontest: 5-0 - ATL +2.5 - Chicago +3 - Baltimore -3 - Philidelphia -2.5 - Seattle -8 Circa Millions: 4:1 (Val was determined to take the darn Rams!) - LA Rams -3 (LOSS) - Chicago +3 - Baltimore -3 - Philidelphia -2 - Seattle -7.5 Beat the Point Spread Pigskin Pick ‘Em at the Snoqualmie casino in WA state: We did 5-0 at our local home casino. - ATL +2.5 - Chicago +3 - Baltimore -3 - Philidelphia -2.5 - Seattle -8 Plus, to top an orgasmic week of football covers, we SURVIVED one more week of Circa Survivor contest! We took the Seattle Seahawks. This week, we are looking to take the LA Chargers to win against the Bears for our Survivor pick. Fingers crossed! Let’s Get to the ATS Leans! Jacksonville Jaguars: This is a good spot for the Jags. The Steelers are coming off a big win over the Rams. A win that really came down to some serious luck for the Steelers and very bad luck for the Rams. Jacksonville has won some games that you would not have expected them to. Not to mention, the Jaguars are going into a bye next week. And teams do well when going into a bye. Washington Comanders: I love a home-dawg! While the Commanders have done me dirty in past bets, I still lean towards them covering the spread. It is a good bounce-back and it’s a good time to fade the Eagles bc I am feeling a regression here. Plus, this is a ‘sandwich-game’ for the Eagles. The Eagles played their AFC rival, Miami, last week, and in week 9, will be playing their own NFC division rival, Dallas. So this is a great let-down spot for Philidelphia as they look ahead to the Dallas challenge. Miami Dolphins: As mentioned, the Dolphins took a bad beat from the Eagles last week. They need this win to stay ahead of the Bills and win their division. While the New England Patriots need this win also, just to stay relevant, I think that Miami will easily cover. I actually have the math at Miami as a -11, so there is a couple points of value here. Plus, New England is a dawg-favorite and on the road. Public dog favs tend to crash. Green Bay Packers: Leaning toward the Packers. Not exactly sure why, bc my math doesn’t show any value. But my gut is saying, this is a short week for the Vikings and they are coming off a huge win to SanFran. So this would be a good time to fade Minnesota. Also, Green Bay is at home and they really, desperately need a win here. Detroit Lions: Monday night prime-time and anything can happen! But not seeing an upset here. I have the Lions at a -10.5 on my handicapping, so finding some value. Detroit is at home, Goff plays well at home and in a dome. And after that bad beat by Baltimore, I see Detroit winning and covering. While the Raiders played poorly and loss to Chicago last week, I don’t see them bouncing back. Seattle Seahawks (Only at Snoqualmie Beat the Point Spread Pigskin Pick ‘Em ): At the Snowqualmie casino, our local casino nearby, they have the Seahwks spread for their contest at -2.5. The Circa and Westgate have them at a -3.5. So I like the idea of the Seahawks winning by a field goal. Now it does worry me that the ultra-strong defense of the Browns could have Gino Smith scrambling around with nowhere to throw. But I really like the extra value at a -2.5. Cincinnati Bengals (Only at Snoqualmie Beat the Point Spread Pigskin Pick ‘Em ): Again, it seems that the Snowqualmie casino is giving us a gift. They have the Bengals at +6. As opposed to the Circa and Westgate that have them at a +3.5. Sure, I hear what you might be saying, ‘the 49er’s could not lose a 3rd game!’. They don’t need to lose, as I could easily see the Bengals covering this +6 point spread. Not to mention, my numbers show the Bengals at a +4.5. So getting the Bengals at a +6, I like that value. Thank you for listening to the WA DAWGS podcast. Wishing you all the best of luck on your games! Val and Rob, WA DAWGS

First off, last week was ugly for WA Dawgs. We got our behinds kicked. Maybe we were too cocky and strutting our stuff bc we had done so well. That is, so well, up until week 6. It’s funny that many emotions happen with these sports games on a Sunday. You're happy, excited, worried, upset, angry, laughing, and crying (the end of that Seahawks game, ugh!); it's worse than therapy. But you must love the game because we are still here, week 7, back for more! We went 4 and 1 across the board at all of our contests: Westgate Super Contest (5ATS picks) Circa Millions (5ATS picks) Wa Snoqualmie Casino’s Beat the Point Spread Pigskin Pick ‘Em (5ATS picks). It still gives a yuck-taste in my mouth, but we gotta keep moving forward. If it weren’t hard, it wouldn’t be fun. So we didn’t get the week 3 and week 6 winnings that we were so close to at the Westgate. But we are still in first place at the Snoqualmie Casino, actually tied for first place.   The silver lining is we are still in the Circa Survivor contest picking Miami. This week for Survivor, we are looking to take Seattle over Arizona. I know it is a division game, and Seattle lost last week to the Bengals. But for the division, Seattle really needs to win this game. Their division has some tough teams, like San Francisco and the LA Rams. Looking at this one for Survivor, but not ATS, as 7.5 points is a lot to lay.  These are our leans this week. But I do have to say, is it me? Or this week seems even more brutal than last week!  LA Rams: Pittsburgh is coming off a bye this week, but that doesn’t mean they will do well. A lot of teams do better going into a bye than coming off. And the Steelers are not like the Steelers team of the past. Plus, the Rams have done really well this season. Considering they were supposed to be one of the worst teams. They look like tough competition and could have a chance to get the wild card. Even win the division if SF keeps playing as they did against the Browns in week 6. The Rams have some really great new talent, and they are at home again, which bodes well for them.  Philadelphia Eagles: This could be a good bounce-back spot after losing to the Jets last week. Eagles are at home, and they have some pretty tough competition in their division that they need every win they can get. Miami is amazing this year, as expected. But this could be a good letdown spot for them. And the Eagle's defense is healthy and strong. If the Eagle’s defense can hold back the Miami offense, the Eagles could easily cover this game by 3. Baltimore Raven: This is an excellent let-down game or scheduled loss for the Detroit Lions. I know every team wants to win. But look at Detroit's division: Bears, Packers, Vikings. The Lions easily have their division won. The Ravens, on the other hand, have some stiff competition in their division: Steelers, Bengals, and Browns. The Ravens need to win this game, and they are at home. Could see this being a good spot for the Ravens to cover by 3. LA Chargers: Yes, the Chargers are in Arrowhead at KC. And yes, KC is a tough team to play in Arrowhead, not to mention KC is a strong team. But got to take the points on the Chargers this game. The Chargers have a +5.5, and they usually have not let any team take a big lead in their past games. I am not expecting the Chargers to win (although I might put a little money on the money line for fun), but they could cover. Chicago Bears: I can’t believe I am even contemplating it. But we are leaning toward the Bears to cover, if not win at home against LV. It looks like both teams are going to have backup rookie QBs. And both teams have not looked spectacular this season thus far. But my model #s point to the Bears being more of a +1 than a +3. So, we are considering taking the points for a home dawg in Chicago this week.  Well, here to another exciting, nail-biting week of NFL football! I wish all of you the best of luck for your teams. Thank you, WA DAWGS (Rob and Val)

WAD - 006 Week 6 NFL: The Pressure is Rising! Welcome back to WA DAWGS! Here we are at week six, and the PRESSURE is off the chain!  Recap: We are entered into 4 NFL sports betting contests:  Westgate Super Contest (5ATS picks) Circa Millions (5ATS picks) Circa Survivor (pick one win a week, and hopefully survive till the end of the season) Wa Snoqualmie Casino’s Beat the Point Spread Pigskin Pick ‘Em (5ATS picks) Last week, we went 5-0 at Snowquamie, which has put us in the sole #1 position of the contest. We went for 4 wins and 1 push in the Westgate Super Contest. And we went 4-1 in the Circa Millions Contest. Plus, we moved forward in the Circa Survivor contest by taking the Detroit Lions.  So when I say the Heat is on, we have the potential to win some cash this week in the Westgate Super Contest prizes for week 6 and weeks 4-5-6. Westgate has every three-week prizes (hence, 4-5-6 weeks) and a 6-week prize.  And would you believe we are in the running for both?! I can hardly believe it myself, because we are not wise guys, sharps, or professional bettors. We have work, busy day jobs, commitments, and a hectic, happy life. Was not expecting to do this well, but here we are! But, it is up to this week (week 6) that will determine if we cash in some prize money or not. Needless to say, that makes it fun, exciting, and absolutely terrifying.  Let’s get right to the LEANS: Baltimore Ravens: This one is chalk. But I feel like it's got good value. I handicapped this one at -5, so there is a point of value there. And Baltimore left for England (they are playing in London) last Sunday and have spent the week there getting acclimated.  It’s a good bounce-back spot after losing to the Steelers.  New Orleans Saints: Last week’s game makes you wonder, is NO stunning, or is NE just that poor? NO has a crushing defense, and their offense has some of the best players in the league. If dreamy-eyes Carr can throw some bullets and if they can bring together the talent they have as a coordinated team, they could easily cover. In my #s, I found NO to be -2.5, which is a point of value.  Seattle Seahawks: Okay, I live in Washington, so I am a fan. But I am not biased! I have Seattle ranked at a 10 and Cincinnati at a 15. I know the Bengals beat the Cardinals last week handily, but that doesn’t mean they shoot right back up to the top of the rank. I actually handicapped Seattle at a pick 'em to a -1. So the fact the Seahawks are getting points makes this a gift.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Buccs have a by-week, meaning they have had plenty of time to prep. From a team that was predicted to be one of the worst, the Buccs are actually quite good and have amazing talent on their team. Detroit has played really well, but I am all over the at-home dawg in this match-up.  ATL Falcons: I don’t know if we will take this on the contest. Last week’s game was just painful to watch.  ATL pushed on one contest for us and covered on another. But it really was by the hair of their chinny chin chin. My #s showed ATL at a -5.5, so it looks like there is some good value. But my gut is saying stay away from this ugly game. Then again, ugly games make for exciting football. Going to stew on this one for a while before I make up my mind.   San Francisco 49ers: SNOQUALMIE ONLY: The Snoqualmie casino has the 49ers at a -4.5. At a -4.5, I will take this for the Beat the Point Spread Pigskin Pick ‘Em. The other books, such as the Westgate Super Contest, have SF at a -7. Even if Deshaun Watson doesn’t play, that’s a hard no for me at a -7.  Those are our leans. Got a little more time to solidify them before Sunday.  Hopefully, with a bit of luck, lots of prayer, and some serious analysis, we can pull some (lots) wins this week.  Thanks for listening to the WA DAWGS podcast.

It’s October, fall is in the air, and we have NFL football. Love this time of year. Just to recap, we are entered into four sports betting contests. - Westgate Super Contest - Circa Millions - Circa Survivor - Wa Snoqualmie Casino’s Beat the Point Spread Pigskin Pick ‘Em. And I have to say, we did pretty well and went 4 and 1 ATS and survived another week in survivor. In fact, we are in first place at the Snoqualmie casino. Leans for week 5: Green Bay: I know it's Monday prime time, and they are traveling to Vegas, but I still feel there is some good value on the Packers. After getting beat by Detroit, it is a good bounce-back win for GB. Perhaps I have GB ranked too high at 14 or LV ranked too low at 27. But I found a good 4 points of value for GB. I know GB's offense is a little beat up, but they are still really good with their yards per point total offensively. ATL: After playing pretty flat and losing to the Jaguars in London, this could be a good bounce-back for the Falcons. They are at home, and while QB Desmond Ridder’s skills could improve, ATL still has some great talent. Houston has played pretty well as of late, and the newbie QB CJ Stroud is looking impressive. But all new QBs make mistakes, so I feel the CJ will throw some interceptions this game. Plus, I found a good 2 points of value for ATL that they could win by 3. NO: Alvin Kamara came off suspension last week, and I feel like this is his week to shine. And dreamy eyes, Derek Carr, is going to throw some bullets. I feel like NE is kind of riding on the coattails of Bill Belichick’s reputation. So getting the Staints at a +1 is a gift. Detroit: If Bryce Young is going to play, I’m taking the Lions. The Lions played great against GB last Thursday in week 4. And this week, Detroit is at home. I know 9 points is a lot to lay. But if it stays at 9, I am really leaning toward Detroit ATS and also for Survivor this week. Jacksonville: We took Jacksonville in London last week, and they totally covered. They always seem to play well in London, and they have stayed the entire week there, so there wasn’t any travel. The Bill did look amazing against Miami in week 4. So I don’t expect the Jaguars to win, but they certainly could cover. So those are the teams that I am seeing some value for week 5. Most likely going to take Detroid for Survivor. However, Miami looks really good as a win too. I know many people are contemplating Washington, but it's Thursday night, prime time. And as we all know, in the NFL, anything can happen, especially Thursday nights!

Recap of 2023 NFL Week 3: Every week, our picks change quite a bit from leans early in the week to our actual picks. However, we got another gift from Snoqualmie Casino Beat the Spread Pigskin challenge. Several of the lines were the look ahead lines, so out 5 picks we different from Circa Millions and the Supercontest. Beat the Point Spread 5 ATS picks (4-1): Note: of 75 total contestants, we are currently tied for 1st with one other person. - 49ers -9.5 -covered - Saints +2 -covered - Seahawks -4.5 -covered - Rams +7.5 -covered - Buccaneers +7 -no cover Westgate Supercontest 5 ATS Picks (3-2) - Saints +2 -covered - Seahawks -4.5 -covered - Bengals -2.5 -covered - Commanders +6.5 -no cover - Broncos +6.5 -no cover Circa Millons 5 ATS Picks (3-2) - Saints +2 -covered - Seahawks -5.5 -covered - Browns -3.5 -covered - Commanders +6.5 -no cover - Broncos +6.5 -no cover Survivor Pick - Kansas City Chiefs We were going to take the Jags. We missed that one. About 3,400 people got knocked out week 3 due to the Jags, Raven and Cowboys getting upset. Our NFL Week 4 5 ATS Picks: Beat the Point Spread Picks - Vikings -3 - Eagles -7 - Rams PK - Cowboys -7 - Seahawks PK Westgate Supercontest & Circa Millions Picks - Jags -3 - Eagles -8 - Rams PK - Cowboys -7.0 / -6.5 - Seahawks PK Week 4 Survivor Pick - 49ers

Recap of 2023 NFL Week 2: NFL Week 2 was different from what we intended. We are entered into three contests for 5 ATS games per week. Westgate Supercontest (5 ATS per week) Circa Millions (5 ATS per week) Beat the Point Spread Pigskin Pick ‘Em at the Snoqualmie casino in Washington state. So, the five we picked were:  Pittsburgh +2.5-covered New England +2.5- didn’t cover Buffalo -8.5- covered Cincinnati -3.5-didn’t cover Seattle +4.5-covered Well, as you can see, we got 3/2. In hindsight (always 20/20), the Bengals at -3.5 was not a good pick, and Miami is much better than we initially thought. But the crazy thing is… when we went to the Snoqualmie casino, their lines for the contest had not changed from the look-ahead lines. We instantly changed our 5 picks when we saw these lines. This is what we ended up picking for the Snoqualmie casino contest: Chiefs -2.5 -covered Dallas -3 -covered Buffalo -8.5-covered Cincinnati -3.5-didn’t cover Seattle +4.5-covered For the Snoqualmie casino–we went 4/1. We Survived another week! We took the Buffalo Bills for the Circa Survivor contest, and they won easily. Let’s March Forward to Week 3! At this time–early Thursday morning, we are still quite undecided about the 5 ATS games. We have our leans, but they are too ‘chalky.’ It feels so unclear. These are our leans in general: NY Jets +2.5 (against the New England Patriots) NE losing again in week 3? They would be 0/3 if they lost to the Jets. That is what I thought last week. That NE couldn’t possibly lose a second week in a row at home with legendary coach Bill Belichick. Well, guess what? NE lost to Miami. Perhaps it will be a close matchup, with the Jets losing by 1 or 2. But I am on the side of the Jet with this one. Miami Dolphins -6.5 (against the Denver Broncos) I think we underestimated the Dolphins. Two road games and won handily weeks one and two against the Chargers and Patriots. It’s hard to believe that the Broncos could go 0 and 3, which would almost assurely keep them out of the playoffs. But I do think Miami will win this week. Baltimore Ravens -8 (against the Indianapolis Colts) Lamar Jackson is living up to the 200+ million dollar contract with the Ravens at 2 and 0, plus covering the spreads week one and two. Can they keep it going for week three? Eight points is a lot to lay. Leaning toward the Ravens but undecided. I def could see the Ravens winning but by 8 points?? Our math model shows them winning by 10 but that a hard one to take. Still dwelling on this one.  Seattle Seahawks -6 (against the Carolina Panthers) Six points is quite the hook to take the Seahawls against the Panthers. Do we take the bait? Seahawks have some injuries but they also have some great talent on the team. And Gino Smith played the game of his life last week against Detroit and they won (and covered). Do the Hawks swoop in and take the win? I’m sure they will. But at 6 ats? I think so.  Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 (against the Las Vegas Raiders): I said I would avoid the Steelers for the rest of the season bc their offense is not good. But here I stand at week three seriously contemplating taking the Steelers at a +2.5 over the Raiders in Las Vegas. I am going to kick myself later but my math really points to some value here and I love the math. I know there are other factors pushing the Steelers away from this ATS cover. But I could see some value here taking the Steelers at a +2.5. Other Thoughts: Our math model did point to the New Orleans Saints having 2 points of value against the Green Bay Packers. Just haven’t seen them really play well offensively. NO defense is on point. So while I do find value in NO, still can’t pull the trigger on this one.  For Circa Survivor contest: We are leaning toward Jacksonville against the Texans. Or the Kansas City Chiefs against the Bears. I don’t want to get all clever and start saving teams. Jacksonville seems like a safe win. But, it is a division game and with the NFL ANYTHING could happen!

Ready, Set, and Let’s GO Week 2 of the 2023 NFL season! Welcome back to WA DAWGS. The 4 football contests we have entered:  Circa Survivor  Circa Millions  Westgate Supercontest  Beat the Spread Pigskin Challenge (Snoqualmie Casino)  We did pretty well in week one with a 4 and 1 score. Those darn Steelers! I really did not see that force of destruction coming. There were a lot of contestants that did 4 and 1. But still feeling good about it either way. Here is a quick recap for week one in our picks:– Steelers lost big time at home to the 49ers.– Ravens covered against the Texans.– Packers covered against Bears– Falcons covered against the Panthers– The Jets covered and won against the Bills in an amazing game without AR. For our survivor contest, week one we picked the Ravens. So we survived week one! In week one, there were a lot of upsets. This week we don’t want to get blinded by the excitement of week one and make rash decisions.We had a lot of leans, but really wanted to avoid taking Away-Favorites. Perhaps because there were 10 away teams that covered ATS week one, and only 3 home teams covered ATS. That is not commonplace in the NFL. We felt like there could be some regression on away teams covering the spread. Also, we had some serious leans for the Bills, Eagles, Seahawks, and New Orleans before week one even started. But with way too much overthinking, sweating over it, overanalyzing, deconstructing, reconstructing leans, and dissecting each game, I think we have narrowed our picks. Our leans for week 2 of the NFL season:Let’s hear it for Cinncinati–the comeback kid! In a disappointing loss last week to Browns, this is a good comeback win for the Bengals. It seems in the past that the Browns have gotten the best of the Bengals, but 24 to 2? It was a bad beat. But this time, the Bengals are at home and the Ravens have some serious injuries to their team. We are looking forward (with some prayers and fingers crossed) that the Bengals beat the Ravens by 3.5. Back to the Bills! The Bills had a terrible loss to the Jet’s Monday night. Even without Aaron Rodgers and Jack Wilson as the QB, the Bills still lost. Also given the fact that Josh Allen was the Jets MVP with three interceptions and one fumble. Makes you wonder if Josh Allen is a double agent? But all kidding aside, Josh Allen and the Bills are going to be back in business to rectify the loss. They are going to win big and cover the 8.5 point spread. The Steelers are going to steal the show. They were miserable last week against the 49ers. With that said, the Steelers really need to comeback and make a win at home. If they don’t win, then they might as well join the USFL. And don’t even think the Canadian football league will take them. New Orleans looks really good on our model to win and cover against the spread at Carolina. Derek Carr, won’t be smearing his eyeliner as he makes the Panthers look like Garfield. Seattle needs to bury last week’s awful loss. They came out looking like a strong force in the first half. The second half on the other hand, it was like someone clipped their wings. There were 248 yards for the Rams and only 12 yards for the Seahawks. So much for the 12th man. They need to strike hard and make a comeback this week against the Lions and cannot use the excuse that there are too many offensive line injuries. Seriously, just give it to D.K. That’s our leans, but in the next few hours it might change. Because, come on, it’s the NFL, anything can happen.

The Wait is Over! It is finally time for the 2023 NFL Season to begin.  If you listened to the podcast, then you have heard our leans. And, oh man, have we changed some of our thoughts. There are so many opinions from everyone. Our minds are overloaded with so much information (much conflicting) from the expert analysts to wiseguy sharps to even the neighbors. Are we overthinking this? I am sure we are, but we are entered into four sports contests that all have a big payout.  The 4 football contests we have entered:  Circa Survivor  Circa Millions  Westgate Supercontest  Beat the Spread Pigskin Challenge (Snoqualmie Casino)  Doing our own research and equations/model, we came up with different picks compared to many experts. But found confirmation from other sharps that our leans were on point.  Val is still in on the Seattle Seahawks, but it could be more like love-blindness because she is a fan. As a divisional game, laying 5.5 points is a lot. The Rams don’t have the talent they used to have. Cooper Kupp is out in week one, and they will likely not win. Lacking the players the Rams had 1-2 years ago, their hearts may not compensate for their lack of strength. But going to sit this one out and just enjoy the show.    Still looking at Green Bay to beat Chicago. Chicago has been given a lot of hype. We need to see if they can live up to that hype. We really have no idea about Green Bay, but feel they have a slight edge, so this could be a good pick.  Steelers getting points at home? That right there is a good reason to consider Pittsburgh. And coach Tomlin has few losses at home in week one. On our podcast, we were all in on the Steelers. But we record the podcast on Mondays, which is too early in the week to finalize our picks in case of any new player information. We are still leaning toward the Steelers to make ATS. Talking chalk here, how about the Ravens and the Texans? The ATS is a 9.5 and 10-point spread. But the Ravens are always prepared week 1. Many experts are on the Texans, and rightly so, with 10 points. But Texans are, on average, ranked 31 in front of Arizona. There is a new rookie coach, DeMeco Ryans.  New rookie coaches can be a struggle (remember last year, Broncos?). Plus, imagine you are rookie QB C.J. Stroud starting week one in Baltimore against the Ravens and Lamar Jackson. That is enough to make anyone crap their pants.    The Jags and Colts game seems obvious. The Colts have a rookie QB, Anthony Richardson, and a rookie coach, Shane Steichen. Steichen has a lot of experience in the NFL, but he is a new coach, which could have its issues. Even though AR15 is a huge, fast beast, does he have the experience to make the plays? At first glance, the Jags seem the obvious pick. But the public is all over the Jags, and it is a division game. Division games are always tight. So, upon closer look, division game, home dog for week one. it seems a little trappy. Few thoughts we had about the other games.  Felt it was wise to stay away from Washington Comanders and AZ. I know everyone is on the Commanders. And the Cardinals are 32 out of 32 in ranking. But we just don’t know enough this early in the season.  Going to sprinkle a little $ on Detroit’s moneyline. Thursday night's first game, feel like the Lions could upset defending Super Bowl Champs, the Kansas City Chiefs. We still are not sure if Travis Kelce will play. Mahomes and Kelce are a serious force. But his injury might not make him 100%. And if he is out in week one, his backup, Bell, is also really good.  Still early in the season to know really where Lion’s ranking is, but it is fun to go dawg Thursday night.  While Sports betting is a true skill we are practicing to improve, we are crossing our fingers for a little luck to help us get those ATS/wins.  2023 Week 1 Circa Survivor Football Contest Pick:  Ravens  2023 Week 1 ATS Football Contest Picks:  Ravens -10  Steelers +2.5  Packers +1  Falcons -3.5 Jets +2.5