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When it comes to equity markets, there is a seller for every buyer. But how do you know which side of the trade to be on? Macro trends explain 70% of stock movements so understanding the macro backdrop is essential. Join Michael Kantrowitz, No. 1 ranked* Wall Street investment strategist, and the rest of the portfolio strategy & quantitative research team at Piper Sandler as they discuss current macro trends and what’s next for markets. Michael, Stephen, Emily, Joe and Dan have been working together for over 15 years. They pride themselves on their knowledge of financial market history while offering value added research and time-saving resources to their clients. The team utilizes the H.O.P.E. framework (Housing, Orders, Profits & Employment), a proven business cycle analysis to guide listeners through investment decisions and manage risk/reward in global equity markets. When they aren’t advising the best and brightest on Wall Street, they share bad taste in movies and good taste in cuisine. For more information on the podcast and the team visit whatsnextformarkets.com
40 Episodes
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This week on What’s Next for Markets I’m sharing a short excerpt from my hour-long conversation with Adam Taggart (Thoughtful Money). We discuss why the current backdrop looks like a post-inflation-shock “Goldilocks” environment, why earnings breadth appears to be healing, and what a broader leadership profile could mean for small caps, cyclicals, housing, and manufacturing. Decide for yourself—does a slower, steadier expansion favor active over passive? To watch the full discussion with Ada...
In this episode, we discuss the uncommon, but not unprecedented, correlation between rising equity markets and increasing unemployment rates. We discuss the historical examples from the 1950s, 60s, 70s, 80s, and 90s to demonstrate how higher unemployment can actually be beneficial for stock prices in periods of inflation. The conversation covers the changing market dynamics post-2022's inflation shock and how current market behaviors differ from recent periods of rising unemployment. The epis...
In this episode, we welcome Alex Goldfarb to discuss the broad and complex world of real estate investment trusts (REITs) and the real estate industry. Alex sheds light on the transformation of real estate from a niche asset class to a mainstream investment option, highlighting the current trends and challenges in the sector. He delves into the dynamics of various real estate segments, including commercial offices, data centers, and warehousing, as well as the impact of interest rates and the...
In this episode, we discuss recent market trends and economic data. We dig into the upcoming flood of macroeconomic data and the implications of the Fed's upcoming actions. The discussion covers investor sentiment, the softening labor market, falling interest rates, and their influence on the markets, especially in housing and smaller companies. The episode discusses the importance of expectations in interpreting macro data and the broader economic context. Tune in for a comprehensive overvie...
In this episode of What's Next for Markets, we discuss the market's performance as we enter September, a typically weak month for equities. Despite initial volatility, the markets have been performing well, led by higher beta and value names. The discussion delves into sectoral leadership, factor performance, and the influence of major stocks like the 'Mag seven' on the overall market. The episode covers the impact of inflation, employment data, and interest rates, highlighting how recent tre...
In this episode, Stephen and Emily discuss the impressive recent performance in the equity markets, noting new all-time highs in the S&P 500 and significant gains since April. They explore the annualized returns, emphasizing the distinction between large growth and smaller cap stocks, and the effect of sustained higher interest rates on the latter. They delve into the anticipation of potential Fed rate cuts and discuss how these could impact small caps and the broader economy. The importa...
2In this episode of What’s Next for Markets?, Michael Kantrowitz is joined by Jim Bianco, President and Macro Strategist at Bianco Research, for a wide-ranging conversation on the Fed, markets, and the bigger forces shaping the economy. Fresh off Jackson Hole, Michael and Jim dig into Jerome Powell’s latest message, the tension between inflation risks and a weakening labor market, and how immigration plays into the Fed’s calculus. They also tackle the bond market’s reaction, the rise of retail...
In this episode, we dive into the complexities of the tech sector. The discussion highlights the significant growth and earnings performance of the tech industry, comparing today's landscape to the tech bubble of 2000. The episode also explore the relative performance of small caps and global tech, highlighting the importance of strong fundamentals over sector labels. The conversation touches on portfolio management strategies and the divergent performances of various market sectors, concludi...
In this episode, we wrap up 2Q earnings and look ahead to key data to watch. We discuss the generally positive market sentiment, driven by factors such as the pricing out of tariff and inflation risks and anticipation of rate cuts. A key focus is the upcoming CPI report on August 12th and its potential impact on the market’s “Goldilocks” narrative. We also explore trends in small caps versus large caps, inflation indicators, and rate-sensitive equities. For full disclosure information visit...
In this episode, We sit down with Benson Durham Head of Global Policy and Asset Allocation to discuss the dynamic landscape of financial markets amid key events and economic indicators. The conversation delves into the relationship between Chairman Powell and President Trump, market reactions to inflation and employment data, and the potential for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. They analyze the recent soft payroll report and its implications, discuss the influence of tariffs, and explore h...
In this episode, long-time colleagues Michael and Emily delve into the current state of the financial markets as they hit record highs. They discuss the impressive rebounds seen in meme stocks and high beta ETFs, along with the broader market's resilience despite underlying concerns. Key topics include the potential for continued bullish momentum, the impact of Federal Reserve policies on interest rates, and the influence of macroeconomic data on market trends. They also explore the unique ma...
In this episode, we discuss with Danny Kirsch the parallels between current market complacency and pre-Liberation Day conditions. Danny explores the implications of extreme call buying, SPACs resurgence, and market liquidity. The episode covers the market dynamics, examining the Fed's pressure to cut rates and its impact on long-term yields, the role of volatility control strategies, and the influence of upcoming events like the August 1st market event. We delve into detailed analyses of cred...
In this episode, Emily Needell, Deputy Chief Investment Strategist at Piper Sandler, joins us to explore the concept of "quality" in stocks. We discuss how quality is defined, the key metrics used to identify high-quality companies, and common misconceptions surrounding the term. Indicators such as high profitability, strong interest coverage ratios, and robust free cash flow are highlighted as hallmarks of quality. We also challenge traditional assumptions, including the notion that low leve...
In this episode, we have in an in-depth discussion with economist Jake Oubina about the current economic landscape. We discuss the Federal Reserve's potential actions, inflation trends, and the housing market outlook. Jake shares his insights on how uncertainty over the past six months has affected consumer behavior, housing, and labor markets. He emphasizes the importance of lower interest rates, deregulation, and capital investment to stimulate economic growth. The discussion also touches u...
In this episode, we speak with Alex Potter senior research analyst at Piper Sandler and take a deep dive into Tesla and its disruptive influence. The conversation touches on various broad topics including automakers, EVs, politics, infrastructure, energy usage, and technology. The discussion highlights Tesla's transformation of the auto industry and its broadened scope influencing tech, industrials, consumer and energy sectors. Alex discusses Tesla's comparison to Amazon and Apple, suggesting...
In this episode we discuss the market trends and events from the first half of 2025. Joined by Emily Needell, Deputy Chief Investment Strategist at Piper Sandler, the conversation covers the market's responses to policy changes, such as tariffs and deregulation, and the broad economic data trends this year. They highlight the v-shaped recovery and the bifurcation seen across different sectors and factors, indicating a mixed recovery. Emily also provides insight into future market expectations...
In today’s episode, we discuss the ongoing uncertainty in global markets and reflect on the events from the past five years, including COVID-19, inflation, interest rates, geopolitical and their compounded effects on market volatility. In the episode, we provide insights into how investors can position amidst these uncertainties by focusing on companies with robust fundamentals and macro resilience. Despite the volatility and unpredictability, they emphasize the importance of not reacting imp...
In this episode, Don Schneider Deputy Head of U.S. Policy at Piper Sandler helps us unravel the ongoing political volatility impacting the markets. We discuss the significant topic of the budget reconciliation bill, detailing its current status, timeline for passage, and the key components it entails including tax cuts, spending cuts, and the consequential impacts on the fiscal outlook and growth trajectory. In the episode we address clients' concerns about the new fiscal trajectory, and the ...
In this episode, Darius Dale, founder of 42 Macro, joins hosts Michael and Steven to discuss the transformative journey and mission behind 42 Macro. Darius shares his background in Wall Street investment research and highlights the company's unique approach to providing equal access to high-quality investment insights for both institutional and retail investors. He delves into the challenges of navigating various investor profiles, the importance of continuous education, and the evolution of ...
In this episode, we discuss the recent movements in the market amid ever-changing political narratives. We delve into the factors influencing valuations, including interest rates, inflation, and macroeconomic data. The conversation also covers the impact of recent policy changes—such as Trump’s fluctuating tariffs on the EU—and how they contribute to market volatility. We examine the current state of the S&P 500, highlighting elevated multiples supported by favorable conditions like low e...
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