Market Overview: Top 40 Index: Hit an all-time high of 82,378, currently at 81,800. SA markets remain strong despite a US market selloff. Top40 | Weekly | 18 March 2025 Gold: Broke $3,000 for the first time last week, currently around $3,030. Continues to rise amid geopolitical uncertainties. Gold | Weekly | 19 March 2025 Rand: Trading at 18.07, briefly touching 18.0088 earlier. Dollar weakness driving strength, with a target level of 17.80. Key Market Insights: Gold as a Portfolio Hedge: Maintains a 6-7% weighting in portfolio. Recent purchase at $2,865 via GLD ETF in New York. Potential buy zones: $2,800 and $2,850. Dollar Index Trends: Initially targeted 104, broke through to 101. Could drive the Rand towards 17.80. Global Uncertainty & Market Reactions: European tariffs and Ukraine war concerns. Trump-Putin meeting adds to geopolitical tensions. Elevated US market valuations suggest exploring Europe ETFs. Investment Strategies: AI Participation Note by Standard Bank: Tracks the S&P Kensho AI Index. Two options: 100% Capital Protection - Minimum investment of R25,000, capital secured, potential upside. Capital at Risk with 140% Participation Rate - Higher returns if index rises, but losses if it drops more than 40%. Open for investment until March 28, 2025. Renergen* Helium Production Milestone: Finally delivered helium after years of delays. Stock surged from R3 to R9.30, but challenges remain. Phase 2 expansion and NASDAQ listing pending. Retail investors remain cautious due to past delays. Macroeconomic Outlook: Atlanta Fed GDP Now Forecast: Predicts Q1 GDP contraction of -2.1%. Economic slowdown concerns intensifying. Upcoming Rate Decisions: US Fed (FOMC): Unlikely to cut rates. SA Reserve Bank (MPC): Potential space for a rate cut. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order 00:00 Market Overview and Key Movements 05:47 Gold and Rand Dynamics 12:08 Investment Opportunities in AI 17:43 Renigen's Helium Production and Challenges 20:06 Budget Insights and Economic Outlook
Local CPI 6.3% for May (lowest since April 2022) from 6.8% in April and vs expected 6.5%. A very good number and we should see June below 6% as June last year was the first +7% in this cycle at 7.4%. Simple base effect should put some serious pressure on inflation over the next few months. So is inflation largely over locally? Probably. Can we start talking about when the MPC starts cutting rates? The next MPC rate announcement is July, the day after we get June inflation and we'll see that the governor says. But cuts are maybe fourth quarter fo this year, at soonest. Standard Bank thinks another 0.25% hike later this year and consensus is cuts only starting next year. Simon Shares UK core inflation rises from 6.8% to 7.1% and CPI 8.7%. They are in trouble. Standard Bank (JSE code: SBK) trading update. Very much two parts, bad debts are ugly and profts are lookign great. They also expect a 0.25% rate increase in the second half of the year? Afrimat (JSE code: AFT) deal to buy Lafarge for ±R1billion. String vertical intergration and potential to boost profits to essentially be paying around a 3x PE. They also say that it looks lie constructions has bottomed in 2022. Omnia (JSE code: OMN) results. Agri struggling with margin pressure, ining booming while chemicals slips. But overall good and stock si cheap. Transaction Capital (JSE code: TCP) secures funding for Gomo. Securing the capital was a major market concern and now they have a bak using their balance sheet and they earn a margin. Good deal but market still selling. How to Diversify Your Commodity Exposure With the PICK ETF Dividend portfolio paying monthly
Simon Shares US inflation for March at 5.0%, better then expected and initial response form markets was to jump higher. Big wait now is for first week of May and the next FOMC rate decision. Current open trading positions, long everything My 7/21 trading system has me long all the indices I trade as below; Nasdaq 22Mar23 @ 12,740 S&P500 21Mar23 @ 4,056 Euro Stoxx 50 03Apr23 @ 4,317 ASX200 05Apr23 @ 7,240 FTSE100 11Apr23 @ 7,793
Simon Shares MPC announcement Thursday. Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE) git the 120c bottom of the range, but has suddenly rallied. Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH), we now know what as the "Board agrees on a radical draft plan to enter into an insolvency process with creditors". The problem with dividends - they not tax efficient. They are great But tax. Dividend Withholding Tax (DWT) is 20%. The maximum Capital Gains Tax (CGT) is 18% after the annual R40k exclusion. And DWT you pay along the way, eroding your return over time whereas CGT you only pay at the end. Warren Buffett Berkshire Hathaway has never paid a dividend and he says they never will. Rather sell he says, more tax efficient. Share buys backs are more efficient, but done at high valuations destroy capital. No easy answer, but maybe we should temper our love? * I hold ungeared positions. Backup power on a budget Is the spread important when buying an ETF? Simon Brown
Simon Shares MPC Thursday (26 January) raised 0.25% and FOMC Wednesday (1 February) expected is 0.25%. Capco (JSE code: CCO) good trading update and dividend. Renergen* (JSE code: REN) proposing US ADRs with Nasdaq listing in time to raise last capital required for phase 2. Stocks losing money from load shedding All listed companies are mentioning load shedding in their updates. Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP); "The Group's additional spend on diesel to operate generators across our Supermarkets RSA store base in order to trade uninterrupted during load shedding stages five and six amounted to R560 million for the period." For the six months ending 2 January 2022 operating profit was R5,113billion. So load shedding costing the group ±10% of operating profit? Astral (JSE code: ARL) selling chicken R2/kg below cost of production. "A large portion of the capital expenditure commitments amounting to R737 million, outlined during the F2022 results presentation, has been placed on hold given the current adverse market conditions. The Group has however committed funds towards backup electricity generation solutions to reduce the adverse impact of load shedding."
Simon Shares Renergen* (JSE code: REN) did a small capital raise and the market not liking after they said earlier in November they wouldn't do one. Cilo Cybin will not be listed on the JSE. They planned to raise R500million but only got R20.5million. Those who applied will be refunded. Local October CPI was 7.6%, up from 7.5% and vs. an expected 7.4%. Expect MPC to do 0.75% and two 0.25% next taking prime to 11%. Locally 2022 has not been all horror It feels really bad but the JSE has had a fair year with sen decent winners as the two images below show. JSE Top40 stocks year-to-date. (winners) JSE Top40 stocks year-to-date. (losers)
🌍 World Wide Markets Ep. 648 – Cash-Rich Companies, Fed Cuts & China’s Housing Woes Host: Simon Brown Date: 17 September 2025 📉 China’s Housing Market New house prices fell 2.5% YoY – still negative since May 2022. Bottomed in October 2023 (-5.9%) and now trending upward. Reflects weak Chinese consumer confidence, similar to South Africa 🇨🇳🇿🇦. Evergrande’s collapse still casts a shadow. Chinese New Home index YonY 🏦 Central Banks in Focus FOMC (US): Decision due Wednesday evening. Market expects 25bps cut, with more cuts likely in Oct & Dec. US unemployment says “cut”, inflation says “don’t cut” – a real policy squeeze. Trump pushing for FOMC shake-up & questioning quarterly reporting 📊. MPC (SA): Decision Thursday. Inflation at 3.5%, close to target. Mixed economist views: some say no cuts until 2027, others see cuts sooner. Fed cuts could influence SARB moves via rand 💵➡️🇿🇦. 📊 Trump vs. Quarterly Results Trump suggests companies report every six months instead of quarterly. Argument: reduces costs and red tape. Counterpoint: US market’s strength lies in transparency & discipline from frequent reporting. Unlikely to change, but sparks debate on market “exceptionalism” 🇺🇸. 🏢 Three Stocks With More Cash & Investments Than Market Cap 1. 📰 Caxton (JSE:CAT) 💰 Cash: R3bn + R1.3bn stake in Mpact. Market cap: R4.4bn → stock “almost free” if stripped for parts. Dividend payer, PE \~7, yield \~5%. Not flashy, but offers Buffett-style margin of safety. 2. 🚚 Supergroup (JSE:SPG) 💰 Cash: R5.2bn, but liabilities of R9.5bn linked to assets held for sale. Supply chain, dealerships, fleet solutions. Debt-heavy, UK exposure risky 🇬🇧. Verdict: less attractive vs. Caxton. 3. 🛒 Pick n Pay (JSE:PIK) Owns 65.6% of Boxer → worth \~R20bn. Plus R5bn cash, R1bn debt, R2.8bn deferred tax asset. Market cap \~R20bn → potential undervaluation. PE ugly now, but 2027/28 earnings growth could re-rate it. Selling down Boxer stake could unlock value. ⚒️ Mining & M&A Anglo American buying Teck Resources (Canada, copper focus). * Increases copper weighting to \~⅔ of revenue. Head office shifting to Toronto 🇨🇦. Deal raises takeover questions – could BHP* come back for Anglo? 🇨🇳 Nvidia vs. China China says Nvidia violated anti-monopoly laws (linked to 2020 acquisition). Also probing Texas Instruments for “dumping”. Comes as US-China trade talks continue, TikTok deadline looms ⏳. Possible bargaining chip in ongoing negotiations. Simon still holds Nvidia. 🧠 Next Week: Second Brain Special Simon explains how to build & use a “second brain” for decision-making & information management. Because our brains are great at decisions 🧠✔️ … but terrible at remembering ❌. 👉 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & SHYFT – The global money app for forex, travel, shopping, payments & investments. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order
🌍 Worldwide Markets – Episode 647 (9 Sept 2024) This week on *Worldwide Markets*, Simon Brown dives into global markets, tech giants, crypto shifts, commodities, and currencies. Recorded a day early before heading to Leaderex, here’s what’s moving markets right now. Powered by Standard Bank and Shyft. 💳🌐 📊 US Jobs & Rate Cuts US jobs report was a mixed bag → +22k jobs, but mostly in healthcare. June revised downward to negative, July slightly up. Unemployment steady at 4.3%. Market expectation: Fed to cut rates next week after Jackson Hole signals. SA MPC unlikely to cut as inflation edges higher at 3.5%. 🔍 Alphabet (Google) Court Cases Alphabet gets a gentle slap on the wrist in antitrust cases. Remedies minimal → no spin-offs of Chrome/Android, search payments (Apple $20bn/year, Firefox $750m) remain. Stock ran to **all-time highs 🚀 (PE still below historical mean). Another case pending on ad dominance – possible spinoffs (YouTube, DoubleClick?) could unlock hidden value. ₿ AltVest → African Bitcoin Corporation AltVest rebrands to African Bitcoin Corporation (ABC). Pivot: becoming a Bitcoin treasury company like MicroStrategy. Raising R11m at R11/share (vs. current ±R5). Proceeds to fund name change + Bitcoin buys. Ambition: raise R210m (maybe even $210m?) in tranches. Risky bet → doubling down on volatile BTC exposure. ⚡ 🛢️ Oil & Sasol OPEC+ to increase output ~200k barrels/day. Saudi Arabia aims for market share → oil likely heading to $60. Sasol still strong 💪 → potential run to R135–R140 before Simon trims profits. 💡 ASML & Mistral (AI) Rumours: Dutch chip giant ASML investing \$1.5bn in French AI startup Mistral. ASML has cash $8.5bn, but risks blurring lines by funding customers’ ecosystem. Simon skeptical: “Picking AI winners this early is messy.” 📈 Bull Market Still Running SA Top 40 at record highs (95k+). Possible push to 100k points this month. “This is still a bull market until it’s not.” 🐂🔥 🥇 Precious Metals Gold → holding gains, bullish above \$3,450. Platinum & Palladium → strong breakouts, holding support. Silver → resilient above \$40. Precious metals complex all looking firm. ✨ 💵 Rand & Global Trade Rand currently at R17.55, with potential to test R17.00 if US cuts rates. Africa-China trade up 25% to $122bn → filling void left by US. 🇨🇳🤝🌍 🇺🇸 Trump’s Tariff Exemptions Trump exempts; uranium, tungsten, graphite, gold, bullion from tariffs. Good news for SA resources sector. 🎙️ Final Thoughts Markets remain bullish, metals are shining, oil likely weaker, and crypto experiments continue. If you’re at Leaderex, come say hi 👋. Powered by Standard Bank & Shyft – the global money app for payments, travel, and investing. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order
📌 Key Themes This Week 📊 Naspers share split – AGM approves a 5-for-1 split to make shares more affordable for smaller investors. 💬 Jackson Hole update – Jerome Powell’s last appearance as Fed Chair, shifting focus from inflation to jobs. Markets pricing in September & December rate cuts with high certainty. 💸 Trump & the Fed – Trump fires Fed Governor Lisa Cook ❌ and pushes to pack the Fed with rate-cut friendly members. 🇺🇸 Intel stake – Trump administration takes a 10% stake in Intel via the Chips Act, raising questions about “state capitalism.” 📉 Dollar weakness – Dollar index slides, Rand strengthens to R17.44, risk-on sentiment in global markets. 💷 UK debt crisis – 30-year gilt yields at levels last seen in 1998 (5.6%). Mounting debt costs threaten stability. 📈 Company Results & Market Moves 🏫 ADvTech* Strong results: 5-year CAGR → Dividends +24%, Revenue +13%, EPS doubled. Enrolments still growing vs. competitor Curro shrinking. Expanding into tertiary education in Ghana 🇬🇭. Solid valuation: PE ~15, dividend yield ~3%. 🚢 Grindrod Decent numbers, disposing businesses to strengthen balance sheet. Awarded 3rd-party rail access via Transnet 🚂. Cheap valuation: PE ~8, Price/Book ~1. 🛢️ Sasol Results stronger than expected: Free cash flow R12bn (up from R7bn). Stock rallied past R120, eyeing R140. Needs stronger chemical markets, higher oil & weaker Rand for tailwinds. ⚙️ Nvidia (results pending) Market eagerly awaiting numbers. Results due Wednesday aftermarket. 🪖 Rheinmetall German defence stock up +160% YTD on European defence demand. Valuations stretched (PE 89 vs. mean 23). Possible overheated trade. 🌐 Macro Watch 📉 US inflation & rate cuts – Markets expect two cuts in 2024, possibly November too. Powell less worried about inflation at 2.5–3%. 🏦 Tariffs & inflation – Spread over time, reducing immediate shock but sustaining price pressure. 💵 Debt & inflation – Inflation helps deflate $30T US debt mountain faster. 💷 UK bonds – Debt costs rising sharply, pushing the UK into deeper fiscal stress. 📌 Quick Hits 📉 S&P 500 at 23x earnings – Historically, this leads to flat 10-year returns (±2%). 💱 Dollar trend – Weakening outlook continues, aligning with Trump’s economic policy. 🇩🇪 Rheinmetall boom – Defence spending pushes stock sky-high, but risks of overheating. 📚 ETF database update – Now includes active ETFs 👉 justonelap.com/ETFdatabase. 🎥 Power Hour – Live session Tuesday 17:30 SA time, replay available later. 🎙️ Host: Simon Brown 📅 Recorded: Tuesday 27 August 2024 💡 Powered by Standard Bank & Shyft app 👉 Markets are on a risk-on rally 🚀, but with high valuations, debt risks, and political interference at central banks, caution remains the watchword. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order
🌍 Worldwide Markets Ep. 644 – 20 August 2024 🎙️ Hosted by Simon Brown This week’s episode dives into Buffett’s latest moves, Google’s iconic IPO, and big results from Standard Bank, MTN, and Sasol. Here’s what you need to know: 📈 Buffett Buys UnitedHealth – Should You Follow? Berkshire Hathaway picked up UnitedHealth (UNH). Stock has fallen from $600 → $308 due to federal investigations ⚖️. On paper, valuation looks attractive: Forward PE ~19 (below long-term average). Price-to-book ~2.9 vs decade average of 4.9. Analysts split: 2 sells, 5 holds, 12 buys, 6 strong buys. ⚠️ Simon’s take: “Don’t blindly follow Buffett. Healthcare is a regulatory minefield. Use it as a starting point, not a buy signal.” 🩺 Healthcare Investing Alternatives Johnson & Johnson* (JNJ) – more stable exposure. Healthcare services & REITs (e.g. hospitals, medical equipment). ETFs on JSE: Satrix Healthcare Innovation ETF (STXHLT). Signia’s healthcare exposure sits in their active funds. Note: Active ETFs will soon be added to local databases ✅. 🏦 Standard Bank Results ROE: 19.1% – huge number. Forward PE: 8 (cheap vs historical 10.1). Dividend yield: 6.6% 💰. Price-to-book: 1.4 (in line with decade average). Expanding strongly across Africa 🌍. Simon: “Boring, quality portfolio stock. I like it, but waiting for cheaper entry near 240.” Standard Bank | Weekly 📱 MTN Results Headline numbers looked great due to base effects from currency collapses in Ghana 🇬🇭 & Nigeria 🇳🇬. Market unimpressed: stock fell 8% 📉. Still strong 1-year return: +77% (incl. dividends +83%). Forward PE ~13.5 vs long-term 25 → appears undervalued. Risks: exec churn, CAPEX-heavy, regulatory hurdles. Simon: “Not a fan of telcos – data is just a utility.” 🛢️ Sasol Update Stock bounced from R50 → R100. Weak oil price outlook could hurt 📉. Operations improving, second-half expected stronger. Simon’s take: “Not a long-term hold. More of a trade: buy around R100, maybe ride it to R140, then get out.” 🔎 Google’s IPO Turns 21 🎂 IPO’d in 2004 via Dutch Auction – gave retail investors equal footing vs institutions. Raised $1.66bn at $85/share. Today’s market cap ~ $2.5 trillion 🤯. Return: ~8,000% since IPO 🚀. Fun fact: for years, Domino’s Pizza IPO (same week) had similar returns 🍕 vs 🔍, but Google pulled ahead. Regulatory cloud: pending US judgment in August could hit stock short term ⚖️ → Simon says: “If it falls, I’ll be buying.” 💡 Key Takeaways Don’t just copy Buffett – do your homework 📝. Healthcare remains risky but ETFs & REITs offer cleaner exposure. Standard Bank looks solid, MTN looks risky, Sasol looks tradable. Google’s IPO remains one of the best investments of all time – and could still offer value despite regulation headwinds. 👉 Worldwide Markets is powered by Standard Bank Global Markets and Shyft – the app that gives you the cheapest forex rates anytime, anywhere 🌍📱. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order
🇺🇸 US Inflation – Numbers come in softer than expected 📊, fuelling hopes for a **September rate cut** from the Fed 🏦. ⛽ Sasol trading update – PE under 3 😮, H2 profits looking stronger, and the market loving it (+9.7% 🚀). 💰 Share buybacks – Why US companies love them, the tax angle, and Apple’s massive \$100bn spree 🍏. Apple out standing shares 🪙 Gold & the Resi10 index – Resource stocks roaring in 2024, +72.5% YTD 🤯, but will gold break out of its range? Gold Weekly | 12 August 2025 🇨🇳 China trade surplus – Despite tariffs & tensions, it hits a record \$1.2 trillion 📦. 🖥️ Trump vs. Nvidia & AMD – AI chip sales to China now taxed at 15%, and Beijing warns against buying certain models 🤖. 📊 Tool – Just One Lap’s ETF Database is live! Filter by issuer, classification, tax-free status, and even search top holdings 🔍. Powered by Standard Bank & Shyft – the global money app for travel, shopping, payments & investments 🌍. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order
🎙️ Worldwide Markets – Episode 642 📅 Recorded: Tuesday, 5 August 💼 Host: Simon Brown 🌍 Powered by Standard Bank Shyft – The global money app for travel, shopping, payments & investing. 🔮 Market Highlights 📈 Purple Group* rocks 🚀 Share price has more than doubled since April lows. 🧾 PE at 56, but strong growth potential and product expansion. 💼 Simon holds the stock — bought low, holding for the long term. 🏦 MPC shifts inflation target 🎯 🔽 New anchor at 3%, down from 4.5%. ⚠️ Finance Minister pushes back — governance concerns. 💸 Lower inflation = lower raises = better expectations management. 🧨 Flip side: high real interest rates hurt growth & jobs. 🚗 Vehicle sales boom 📊 July sales >51,000 units — highest since 2019! 🛻 Light commercial vehicles dominate, Mahindra sneaks into Top 10. 💰 CMH* shines with low PE and high dividend — Simon holds. 📉 Motus also cheap, but Simon prefers CMH. 🪙 Gold miners printing money ✨ AngloGold Ashanti*: 🚜 Production +21% 💰 Free cash flow +149% 📉 Net debt down 92% 💵 80c dividend 💹 Targeting R1,000/share — already at R972! ✨ Gold Fields also up ~150% YoY on earnings. 🧾 US Bureau of Labor Statistics drama 🇺🇸 🔥 Trump fires BLS head after unfavourable jobs data. ❗ Undermines trust in data — risks U.S. credibility. 🌎 Bad precedent: Greece, Argentina, China have all suffered from politicised stats. 🍊 Tariffs impact SA agriculture 🇺🇸 U.S. tariffs on citrus & grapes kick in Thursday. 📉 Sector exposure: ~10% — not massive but not zero. 👨🌾 Some farmers and related stocks (e.g. Mpact) will take a hit. 🧠 Random Insights 🪙 Crypto in Parliament? 🇿🇦 Of 490 South African parliamentarians… only 2 declared owning crypto. 🤷♂️ No surprise crypto isn’t getting policy attention. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order
🔺 Tariffs Incoming 🇿🇦 SA faces 30% US tariffs starting Friday. 🚗 Auto industry, 🍊 citrus, 🚚 logistics & 🧪 fertilizer sectors (like Omnia, Kaap Agri, Impact) to feel the heat — but no fatal blows expected. 📉 MPC Policy Misfire? 💰 SA inflation at 3%, but rates still stuck at 10.75%. 📉 Is the MPC behind the curve? Simon says: Yes. 📉 Calls for a rate cut of at least 0.5% to 1%. SA CPI and Prime | 29 July 2025 🥇 Why Hasn’t the SARB Bought Gold in 20 Years? 📊 From 2005 to 2025: only ±48,000 ounces added. 📉 Gold outperformed the USD by a wide margin (680% vs 171%) over 20 years. 🤔 Why the gold aversion? Simon wants answers. 📈 Structured Product Spotlight 💼 New Standard Bank product: ✔️ 100% capital guarantee ✔️ 1.8x upside gearing ✔️ MSCI World Index exposure 📆 3.5 year duration, paid out in ETFs 💸 Min R25k. Closes in Sept. 🚘 Chinese Cars Disrupting the Market 🇨🇳 Omoda CX5 & CS9 – slick, affordable, feature-packed 💡 Screens bigger than laptops, prices lower than rivals ⚠️ Toyota, Ford, VW: Time to worry? 💊 Big Pharma Blunder 🤦♂️ Novo Nordisk loses Canadian patent by forgetting to pay a $250 fee 📉 Generics incoming. Massive oops. 🔍 Alphabet Results 💹 Stock up 15% since Simon’s last mention 💰 $95bn cash, low debt ⚖️ Facing antitrust heat – rulings incoming 📉 Possible price dip = buying opportunity? 📢 Next week: Who owns what in Parliament? Crypto, shares, surprises await… 🧠 Hosted by Simon Brown 💳 Powered by Standard Bank & Shyft – the global money app for smart travellers & investors
🌍 This week on Worldwide Markets, Simon dives into a packed show covering inflation, earnings, property deals, and opportunities in local stocks. Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets and Shyft — your gateway to global investing. 🌐💸 📉 Inflation Target Cut – A Bad Idea? • SA may shift to a 3% inflation target 📊 • Risks of higher interest rates 😬 • Real rates already sky-high 🚀 💵 Weaker US Dollar & Tech Gains • Trump’s weaker dollar policy in motion 🇺🇸📉 • MAG7 & Nasdaq benefit: 49%+ offshore revenue 🖥️🌐 • S&P 500 and Russell 2000 lag 🏢 Sibanye-Stillwater* Diversifies • Buys US recycling business ♻️ • Adds silver, copper, and skills 🪙🔧 • Expands beyond PGMs and gold 🪙 Voltara & PGMs Running Hot • Valterra Platinum update reflects flood damage & weak past PGM prices 🌊 • But platinum & palladium now breaking resistance levels 📈🔥 🏬 Hyprop’s Bid for MAS PLC • Cash or shares deal (R24 or Hyprop stock) 💰 • Hyprop focuses on Western Cape & Eastern Europe 🏖️🌍 • Deal may not be in MAS shareholders’ best interest ❓ 🪨 Afrimat: Value at R45? • Price on long-term support line 📉🧱 • Concerns: iron ore, Lafarge deal, site near Mozambique 🇲🇿 • Van Heerden’s track record solid 💼💪 • Forward PE ~11, below decade mean 🔍 🧪 New ETF Database (Beta) • Search by issuer, classification, TER & more 🔍📊 • Explore at justonelap.com/etfdatabase 🧱📂 • Feedback welcome! 📜 SA Budget Drama • Multi-party politics = budget complexity 🧠 • Education budget almost derailed ❗ Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order
🎙 This Week in Markets: US inflation ticks higher 📈, putting pressure on rate cuts. Powell's in no rush. Local rates also due end-July. 🏘 China Housing Trouble: 3 years of negative home price growth in China 🇨🇳. Citizens frustrated as property values slide. Evergrande and other ghosts still haunt. Chinese Home prices Year-on-Year | June 2025 🚀 Elon Watch: Musk injects $2B into XAI 🤖. Deck chairs shuffled? Investors seem to approve. 🔩 PGMs Shine: Platinum and palladium break higher ⚪, supported by tightening supply. Miners like Sibanye*, Implats, and Northam bask in the glow. 💻 Nvidia Milestone: First $4 trillion company 🤯. AI + autonomous driving = future. Trump eases chip restrictions. 📦 Copper Tariffs: Trump proposes 50% import tariffs on copper 🔧. Could spark domestic production—or not. 📉 Gold & Oil: Gold drifts within range 🪙. Oil facing resistance again 🛢, needs a breakout above $77 to excite bulls. ₿ Bitcoin Treasury Companies: Why buy MicroStrategy at a premium when you can just buy Bitcoin? 🤷♂️ Financial engineering vs. logic. 📊 Strategy (ex-MicroStrategy) holds 600,000+ BTC. 🇿🇦 Altvest has one BTC—also in the mix. 🏛 Crypto Legislation: US considers classifying crypto as a commodity 🪙, stablecoins gaining traction. It’s Bitcoin Week at the White House. 🇺🇸 💸 ZAR & Tariffs: Rand weakened after US slaps 30% tariffs on SA imports ⚠️. Trump’s unpredictability rattles markets. 🧠 Coming Soon on Power Hour: 📅 August: Moxima Gama on advanced charting 📅 November: Keillen Ndlovu on REITs (local & offshore) 🧭 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets and Shift, the global money app 💳 🌍 Travel | 💱 Forex | 🛒 Spend | 📈 Invest — All in your hand. 🎧 Leave a rating and review — every bit helps! 📢 Back next week with more market insights. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order
Simon’s on holiday in sunny Durban 🌞 but couldn’t resist diving into what might be Trump’s grand economic plan. On the surface, it’s tariffs, spending cuts and tax breaks—but is there real strategy underneath the chaos? 🔹 Trump’s Big Idea: Use tariffs to raise revenue and onshore manufacturing 🏭 🔹 Debt Drama: US debt now > $30 trillion 😬 🔹 Tariffs Everywhere: South Africa slapped with 30%—and so is everyone else 🌍 🔹 Reshoring & Inflation: Could higher costs push inflation up again? 💸🔥 🔹 No Deals Signed: 90 deals in 90 days? 0 delivered 🤷♂️ 🔹 Foreign Policy Fallout: NATO, Mexico, Canada—strained relationships 🌐💥 🔹 Cut Spending: USAID, EV subsidies, and soft power eroded 🚫🌱 🔹 Regulation Rollback: Less red tape, but also less consumer/environmental protection 🧾♻️ 🔹 Crypto & Energy: Deregulate crypto, cozy up to OPEC for cheap oil ⛽🪙 🔹 Mar-a-Lago Accord?: A currency + Treasury buying pact that needs allies—who aren't coming 🤝❌ 🔹 Immigration & Performance Politics: Headlines vs. actual impact 🛂📺 💬 There’s a thread of logic, but execution has been clumsy at best. Allies alienated, deals undelivered. The endgame? Likely messy and inflationary. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order
The Year So Far 📈 Market returns in 2025 tell a story of extreme volatility rather than predictable trends. The US 10-year yield spiked above 4.5%, shaking confidence before Trump walked back tariffs. Trump’s Second Term 🏛️ Tariffs on Mexico, Canada, China, and NATO tensions triggered waves of uncertainty. A 90-day tariff pause ends soon—more volatility ahead. Currency Moves 💱 The rand hit R19.90/$ in April but has strengthened nearly 7% year to date. Dollar weakness is driving big shifts—its worst start to a year in 50 years! Commodities on Fire 🔥 Platinum: +52%, hitting 10-year highs Gold: +27%, buoyed by central banks diversifying away from dollars Copper, rhodium, uranium also strong, while coal and Brent oil are lagging Equities: Winners & Losers 📊 Top Performers: Sibanye Stillwater* +115% 🚀 Northam, Impala, Harmony riding the PGM boom Surprise: MTN +58%, defying telco sceptics British American Tobacco at record rand highs Strugglers: Aspen -27% 🩺 Spar, Mr Price* correcting after big runs Sasol, despite the headlines, down just 5% Global Markets Snapshot 🌐 European indices are up double digits (Germany +20%, Spain +21%) Canada bounced +8.5% from April lows Hong Kong +20% as Asia joins the rally SA market in ZAR: +30% YTD, outpacing gold and the Nasdaq Key Lessons 🎓 Volatility is a feature, not a bug. When markets “go on sale,” don’t panic—buy like you would discounted chuckles. Politicians worldwide are unpredictable—stay focused on your long-term plan. The Dollar Story 💵 Dollar Index fell from 110 to 96 in six months. Capital is rotating to Europe and emerging markets. The tariff-driven isolationism in the US is reshaping global flows. 🗓️ Upcoming Event Power Hour – 21 July (Monday) Topic: Three Decades of Investment & Trading Lessons with Simon Brown 🔗 Register at JustOneLap.com/events 📈 More Resources Full ETF performance update dropping Thursday: justonelap.com/ETFs Read Simon’s market insights anytime on JustOneLap Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order
💸 Know Your Fees: Effective Annual Cost (EAC) Not all fees are created equal — EAC is the real number to watch. Applies to retirement products, LISPs, and unit trusts — not to stockbrokers. 📊 Understand the difference: TER (Total Expense Ratio) TIC (Total Investment Cost) EAC (includes platform + advisor + product fees) 🍏🍏 Apples-to-apples: Compare funds using EAC. 🎯 Target an EAC between 1.1%–1.5%. 💬 Negotiate! Advisor and platform fees are often flexible. 🔍 Beware: Some brokers refuse to give the number — that’s a red flag. ❗ Platform fees: Flat > Percentage. Otherwise, your 1% could become R100,000 in fees! 🛢️ Oil Wipeout & Geopolitics Weekend U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear sites 🔥 led to… a shrug from the oil market. 📈 Oil hit $81.40 early Monday, then crashed to $67.70 by Wednesday. That’s a $14 drop, nearly 20% down — massive. 🌍 Global market awash with oil: 🇻🇪 Venezuela, 🇮🇷 Iran, 🇷🇺 Russia all pumping through sanctions ⛽ OPEC+ supply increases kicking in soon ⛴️ Straits of Hormuz risk overstated — markets unconvinced 📉 Oil heading to $60? Possibly. ⚙️ Sasol: Much Ouch ❌ Not a fan of Sasol — never been on that bus 📉 Sasol collapsed this week: down 14–15% Tuesday Currently hovering at R96, with support around R77 🧪 Chemicals weak, oil down, Rand strong = triple whammy ⚠️ Not going bust, but it’s in real pain 💱 Rand Rollercoaster 💵 USD/ZAR down from 18.15 to 17.76 🔻 Dollar weakness a key driver 🎯 R17 still very much in play 😬 Strong Rand not helping exporters like Sassol 🏦 Fed Watch: FOMC & Powell 🕊️ No rate change last week, as expected 📣 Powell grilled by Congress — MAGA heat incoming 📉 Fed still guiding for two cuts in 2025 Data outlook softening: 🏭 GDP ↓ 📈 Inflation ↑ 👷 Unemployment ↑ 🧠 Powell's just doing his job — not playing politics SA’s MPC, on the other hand… maybe a bit behind the curve ⚗️ PGMs: Shiny Again? 💬 Chat with Old Mutual: rotating out of gold, into PGMs 🔼 Platinum at 10-year highs, last seen in Oct 2014 🇿🇼 🇿🇦 Platinum from Southern Africa; 🇨🇦 🇷🇺 Palladium elsewhere 📦 Stockpiles, especially palladium, still working through 🚗 EVs: Now only expected to be 40% of sales by 2035 Existential crisis for PGMs? Delayed… for now 🧊 Recycling paused — not worth it at these prices 🥇 Pick your poison: Impala, Northam, Sibanye Stillwater*… 📦 Sibanye with PGMs, palladium & gold exposure 🪙 Gold: Still Glowing 🧲 Pullback to support around R3,330/g Could go as low as R3,200 — but not rolling over 💡 Structural shift in how investors (especially in developed markets) view gold 🛡️ Post-2022 shift: Central banks hedging against future sanctions with more gold Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order
This week, Simon Brown unpacks the numbers behind a recovering South African consumer, an attractive new renewable energy listing, and the latest moves in platinum group metals (PGMs). Plus, CrowdStrike’s results, Omnia’s cash pile (and SARS headache), and what falling bond yields mean for SA. In this episode: 📈 Retail recovery? Results from Mr Price* and TFG* show H2 improvement — are SA consumers finally catching a break? 🌱 Greencoat Renewables (JSE: GRP) lands on the JSE with a juicy ±9% dividend yield. Should you be bidding? 💰 Omnia shines with strong mining & agri numbers, plus another special dividend — but SARS looms. 🪙 PGMs on the move: Platinum breaks out, rhodium recovers — which miner is best placed to benefit? 🔐 CrowdStrike* delivers solid results, but share dilution raises eyebrows. Is it still a long-term cybersecurity winner? 💸 Currency & bonds: Rand firms as US dollar weakens and SA bond yields drop. What does it mean for investors? Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order
Sash Pillay
great show.