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FiveThirtyEight Politics

Author: FiveThirtyEight, 538, ABC News, Nate Silver

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Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week.

615 Episodes
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In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew discusses the results of the California gubernatorial recall election. The recall effort ultimately failed by a sizable margin.
The crew checks in on the California recall election and other upcoming races, and talks about how a Trump endorsement is shaping a Wyoming primary. They also discuss Biden’s sweeping vaccine mandate -- how Americans feel about vaccine mandates in general, how effective they are and if Biden’s is legal.
American politics has changed a lot in the twenty years since the 9/11 terrorist attacks. In this installment, Jennifer Merolla, a Professor of Political Science at UC Riverside, and Hannah Hartig, a research associate at Pew Research Center reflect on the political climate in the immediate aftermath of 9/11 and whether a similar American consensus is possible today. Also, CalMatters Politics reporter Laurel Rosenhall and political analyst Paul Mitchell join to discuss the status of the California gubernatorial recall election.
Late Wednesday night in a 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court chose not to block a Texas law banning most abortions after the sixth week of pregnancy -- making it the most restrictive abortion law in the country. The crew discusses what legal debates are currently playing out, what the decision could mean for the future of Roe v. Wade, and where Americans stand on abortion restrictions in general.
As of Monday, all U.S. troops have withdrawn from Afghanistan following a chaotic evacuation from the country. In this installment, Robert Crews, a History professor from Stanford University, joins to reflect on the history of the Taliban and the current political landscape in Afghanistan. The crew also discusses how Americans are responding to the administration’s handling of the end of the war.
Earlier this month, the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) released the first part of its Sixth Assessment Report on the state of climate change globally. The report relies on advanced climate modeling to illustrate where global warming is headed. In this installment of Model Talk on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke are joined by two climate modelers and authors of the latest IPCC report, Friederike Otto and Baylor Fox-Kemper.
The crew looks at public opinion on the war in Afghanistan and the Biden administration's decision to withdraw U.S. troops as the country now faces a Taliban takeover. They also discuss how the country has changed demographically and geographically over the past decade, based on the newly released 2020 census data.
The crew talks about what led to Cuomo's resignation, how New Yorkers feel about his replacement, and what this means for New York’s 2022 Democratic primary race for governor.
The crew discusses why Biden’s favorability is falling and how much Democrats should worry about it. They also check in on the results from two recent primary elections in Ohio and announce the launch of FiveThirtyEight’s Redistricting Tracker.
The team assesses New York Governor Andrew Cuomo's political future after a report from the New York Attorney General concluded that he sexually harassed 11 women. Cuomo denied the allegations, but has faced overwhelming pressure to resign from fellow Democrats, including President Joe Biden.
The crew discusses two elections in Ohio this week that will test the sway of the establishment in both parties. They also talk about how the California recall election is shaping up after a recent poll showed increased support for recalling current Governor Gavin Newsom.
The crew talks about where Americans stand on mitigation efforts, how politicians are responding, and what public health experts are saying about the current state of the pandemic.
Almost a year after the 2020 Democratic National Convention, the crew looks back at the record number of Democrats who ran for president in 2020 and assesses where they are now. They also review a new report from the American Association of Public Opinion Research on why election polls had a historically large error in 2020.
According to a recent Marist poll, inflation is now Americans’ leading economic concern. Economics Professor at George Washington University, Tara Sinclair, joins to explain what is going on with the economy and the potential consequences of a spike in prices.
Americans' political views oftentimes don't align neatly with a single party, but instead draw on both conservative and liberal positions. Pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson joins the crew to discuss a new survey that categorizes voters into at least four ideological quadrants and tries to imagine how voters would align if America were a multi-party democracy. They also discuss shifting American views on foreign policy and the status of the infrastructure and budget bills currently being considered in the Senate.
We assess the state of American democracy, based on a new survey from Bright Line Watch, a group of political scientists that monitors threats to our democratic systems.
The crew discusses which indicators are worth watching to get a sense for how the parties will perform in the 2022 elections. They also ask whether a recent Gallup poll reporting that a record number of Americans are “thriving” is a “good or bad use of polling.”
Technology and politics reporter Kaleigh Rogers discusses the influence of conspiracy theories on the events that led to the Jan. 6th riot, why people believe in conspiracy theories in the first place, and what it means for the future of American politics.
Pew Research has released its verified voter survey, looking at how different groups within the electorate voted in 2020. It’s generally considered to be one of the most comprehensive pictures of trends within the electorate. The crew talks about the most notable data points and what it means for Democratic and Republican strategies going forward. They also discuss ranked choice voting and the reasons for delays in New York City's final vote count in the mayoral election.
On Thursday, the Supreme Court wrapped up its first term with a 6-3 conservative majority on the bench. FiveThirtyEight contributor Laura Bronner shares what the data can tell us about the ideological direction of the court with the addition of Justice Amy Coney Barrett. Legal scholar Kate Shaw also digs into some of the specifics of the term’s major cases, particularly on election law.
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Comments (329)

Matt

Want to actually gain the trust of these people as a journalist? Maybe don't laugh every time you bring up a conspiracy theory they believe. You have to be learn how to talk to people, even if they are crazy. This entire interview wreaks of elitism and arrogance. You definitely didn't change any minds.

Jul 9th
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km

Yang please 😁

Jun 22nd
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herbsta magus

Thr death penalty is ineffective barbaric nonsense. You have a lack of empathy and critical thinking skills if you believe in killing people as a perverse form of 'justice'.

Jun 8th
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km

Yang is clearly the best shot New York (& America) has. Read "The War on Normal People".

Jun 5th
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Greg Moore

The audio keeps skipping back on this episode.

May 25th
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Matt

It's gotten harder and harder to listen to this podcast since Clare left. She at least could play devils advocate and keep the show grounded. I used to really look forward to it each week, but more. Add another show to the echo chamber that is political reporting in the US.

May 18th
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A Turner

I listen faithfully and love the team commentary, but I'm gonna miss Perry on the team SO MUCH! Best of luck in your future enedeavors!

May 3rd
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Hector Soler

bullshiet a waist of time to listen to you so fuck yourself

Apr 30th
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Aristeia

what about jewish people??

Apr 25th
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Basile

I'd like to know what role anti-black or ambivalence towards blacks amongst sectors of Hispanics played in the wake of the Floyd killing, BLM protests and even the selection of Harris as the VP running mate. Add in the ridiculous Republican campaign to paint Biden as a socialist-communist, you have some interesting factors to consider.

Apr 20th
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Andrew Browne

538 discussing internal RNC processes, like a blind man looking through the Hubble telescope at a distant star and explaining it to those who permanently live underground.

Apr 6th
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BillyG

I cannot handle the main guy's voice

Mar 24th
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Heather Cahill

Voting by showing an ID is easy, with IDs being needed for basically everything. If it's important enough, you'll make it happen.

Mar 4th
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Christy McMannis and Ron Renchler

Except, what are the pricing benefits of having energy deregulation in Texas? I never heard this discussed in this discussion. Do Texans really have lower monthly energy bills? Or is it that Texas legislators/fossil fuel corporate executives/investors just don't want to be regulated so that their profits are higher?

Feb 22nd
Reply (1)

Andrew Browne

Democrats argue why Democrats are right

Feb 12th
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Mary Sample

love 538 but really miss clare!

Feb 10th
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Marlo Lemieux

I think the only valuable insight I've ever gotten from listening to conservative pundits is an understanding of how muddled and myopic their analysis is. To think that it's only the very smartest of the bunch I ever hear from on here or Vox is not a an encouraging sign of the soundness of the discussion all of these people must be having between themselves. Actually, the current state of the GOP is probably what you'd expect as a result of such an intellectual debacle...

Feb 5th
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Ed Potter

When Newt Gingrich had written a series of what if books about the cause that wasn't lost, was it seen as foreshadowing today's republican politics?

Feb 5th
Reply

MH

Bring back Clare

Feb 5th
Reply

Andrew Browne

Always good to hear how Democrats view Republicans, there is never enough of that in the media

Jan 20th
Reply
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