Order From Ashes

Shownotes Brazil’s President Lula da Silva has forged a global reputation as a leader of the left. He’s also fighting for his political life after a surprising first-round loss to his rightwing challenger. Voters choose on October 24 in the second round between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, which Bolsonaro is favored to win. For long after, Brazil will navigate the twin governance failures of left and right.  On this episode of the Order from Ashes podcast, Nara Roberta Silva and CIP Senior Non Resident Fellow Michael Ahn Paarlberg analyze the dynamics that drove the first-round election results—and the wider implications as we track a worldwide overt contest between democracy and authoritarianism, rights and facism, socialist and market approaches. Guests Nara Roberta Silva is core faculty and Praxis Program head at the Brooklyn Institute for Social Research.  Michael Paarlberg is a fellow at the Center for International Policy and a political scientist at Virginia Commonwealth University. Hosts Rohan Advani is a non-resident fellow at the Center for International Policy and a junior research fellow at the Crown Center for Middle East Studies at Brandeis University. Thanassis Cambanis is vice president for research at the Center for International Policy. Related reading Nara Roberta Silva, “Lula 3.0 and the Austerity Trap: The Left in power, the Right in control,” Public Seminar, July 17, 2025 Michael Paarlberg with Kelsey Atherton, “Q&A: Brazil’s Elections and the Return of Bolsonarismo,” Center for International Policy, October 8, 2026 Date: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 Episode: Order from Ashes 121

Shownotes The United States withdrew from Iraq on September 30 at the request of the sovereign Iraqi government. It was the second time that the US has ended a war in Iraq since the 2003 invasion. The pullout — necessary and overdue — won’t bring much relief for Iraq, which is buckling under pressure from America’s latest war, against Iran, and the pressure cooker of militias that operate beyond state control. On this episode of the Order from Ashes podcast two authorities on Iraq and Afghanistan assess how America has gone about ending its forever wars. Fotini Christia is a political scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and has done fieldwork in both countries. Sajad Jiyad is a fellow at the Center for International policy based in Baghdad. In ending some of its wars while starting others, has the US created conditions for future conflict and power vacuums, adding to the harms caused during its wars and occupations? Is there a better way to leave, or should we expect the end of US wars to be as messy as their onset? In what condition are the states that emerged from US occupation in Iraq and Afghanistan? Guests Fotini Christia is a political scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Sajad Jiyad is a senior non-resident fellow at the Center for International policy based in Baghdad. Hosts Rohan Advani is a non-resident fellow at the Center for International Policy and a junior research fellow at the Crown Center for Middle East Studies at Brandeis University. Thanassis Cambanis is vice president for research at the Center for International Policy. Date: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 Episode: Order from Ashes 120

Shownotes A dangerous, and entirely voluntary knowledge gap undermines U.S. policy. The government repeats some mistakes over and over – either oblivious to the results, or hard at work ignoring the damning evidence. Fiascos like the ongoing American war on Iran build on previous atrocities, including the American invasion of Iraq in 2003. Critical research and new knowledge are a necessary first step to end impunity and adopt an American foreign policy centered on justice, rights, and peace. How can researchers tip the balance? On this episode of Order from Ashes, we talk with the leaders of the Center for International Policy, Executive Vice President Matt Duss and President Nancy Okail, about the urgent need for research that radically reframes policymaking. Related reading “CIP Research Brings Fresh Ideas to Fight Bad Policy,” Center for International Policy, September 1, 2026 Participants Matt Duss is executive vice president at the Center for International Policy. Nancy Okail is a president of the Center for International Policy.. Thanassis Cambanis is vice president for research at the Center for International Policy. Date: September 30, 2026 Episode: Order from Ashes 119

Shownotes Serious research asks open-ended questions, and often produces insight but no clear answers. Every now and then, however, good-faith research hits the jackpot. That’s what happened when Century International fellow Peter Salisbury assembled a team that asked a deceptively simple question: how do Yemen’s Houthi rebels smuggle parts and build drones? The answer is a blockbuster research project that changes our understanding of the current war with Iran, and resoundingly demonstrates to policymakers that no amount of war can put the genie of modern arms supply chains back in the bottle. While the United States and its partners rely on brittle legacy strategies—billion-dollar weapons deals and unachievable plans to bomb enemies into total submission—those same adversaries are deftly adapting their ways of war to the modern global economy.  On this episode of Order from Ashes, Peter shares how his team tackled a question about Iran’s drone network and followed their research to its logical, and global, implications. No amount of war can solve political problems or eliminate states and state-supported movements, but Peter’s research suggests some steps that modern states must take if they want to operate in the modern globalized war economy.  “Beyond the Axis” will change your reading of today’s war and peace negotiations in the Middle East—and for much longer than that, will shape your perspective on the unstoppable, creative process by which militants and militant states are able to compete with vastly better-resourced powers. Related Reading Report, “Beyond the Axis,” by Peter Salisbury Launch event, “Worldwide Webs of Weapons: Beyond the Axis.” Report, “From Smugglers to Supply Chains: How Yemen’s Houthi Movement Became a Global Threat,” by Peter Salisbury, Henry Thompson, and Veena Ali-Khan.  Participants Peter Salisbury is a fellow at Century International. Thanassis Cambanis is director of Century International.  Date: Tuesday, July 7, 2026 Episode: Order from Ashes 118

Shownotes President Donald Trump launched his full-scale war on Iran in February without an announcement, a clear cause of war, or any declared goals. In similar fashion, the on-and-off hostilities came to some sort of close, for now, with a “memorandum of understanding” announced on June 15.  Six fellows at Century International join Order from Ashes for a first look at the deal. It’s not a peace treaty or even a formal ceasefire. Like much of what passes for diplomacy in recent years, it’s ad hoc, not binding, and includes no enforcement mechanism. If it’s not a real peace deal, what is it? Will Israel keep fighting expansionist wars anyway, or withdraw from Lebanon? How will the wealthy monarchies in the Gulf position themselves now that the war has punctured their branding as a safe haven removed from geopolitics?  Century International’s fellows help make sense of the agreement and what might change short of an outright, lasting end to the war. Participants Peter Salisbury is a fellow at Century International. Dahlia Scheindlin is a fellow at Century International. Nicholas Danforth is a fellow at Century International. Frederick Deknatel is a fellow at Century International. Rohan Advani is a fellow at Century International. Sam Heller is a fellow at Century International. Thanassis Cambanis is director of Century International.  Date: Wednesday, June 17, 2026 Episode: Order from Ashes 117