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new wave financial media
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A conversation with George Whitridge & Max Friedrich of ARK Invest's Fintech team. We discuss Square stock, and the company's long-term potential to merge its seller (Square retail POS) Β and consumer (Cash App) businesses to become a digital bank. The interview was recorded on 03/30/2020.
Tesmanian reports that Tesla delivered 9,367 Model 3's in Q1 2020 in China (according to the China Passenger Car Association), with 3,900 alone being delivered in March. This shows that Tesla Shanghai production is hitting record highs. My guess is Tesla could deliver 15-20K 'Made In China' Model 3's in Q2, helping to offset declines in the US and European markets. I think this is a silver lining to the Tesla story right now that not enough people appreciate. Revenue, profits and cashflow from Tesla Shanghai are growing by the day.
Tesla reports record Q1 production of 103K vehicles, and record Q1 deliveries of 88K. Model Y production is scaling, and Shanghai Gigafactory output keeps climbing. These numbers were far better than my estimates, and signal Tesla's business was thriving before the economic shutdown. Here's my take on the delivery & production report.
I'm conservatively expecting Tesla will deliver ~65,000 cars in Q1, growing about 5% year over year. This factors in the factory shutdown at the end of March, and the macro economic crisis that has been unfolding. I've updated my full year delivery estimates to just 350,000. I hope I'm being too negative, but am preparing for the worst. In this video I show how this level of deliveries will impact Tesla's financials.
Is Peloton selling a $2,245 exercise bike? Or democratizing home fitness? A little bit of both. This dynamic business model combination of luxury hardware and premium software streaming classes, is disrupting the fitness industry. I'm a new Peloton shareholder, and think the company has huge potential to expand into new products (like the Tread and rowing machine), lower prices, and expand into digital content (Peloton App).
GM and Ford reported huge (and growing) losses in Q4 2019, before the economic crisis began. Both companies have suspended 2020 guidance and have drawn down $15B+ on credit lines. Are we witnessing a slow motion implosion/bankruptcy for America's two largest automakers? It looks like it. Reuters reports, both companies are planning to make 320,000 EVs for North America in 2026 (combined!) ... that would be less than Tesla did in 2019. This is super disappointing, and makes their chance of a turnaround look even lower.
I've been adding to my Bitcoin position in the past week. The cryptocurrency currently trades at a network value of $120B, or just about 4.5% of the $2.7T it moves annually. This compares to fintech companies like Paypal, that trade at ~14% of annualized money moved. I think the long-term thesis for Bitcoin to become digital gold, and be worth several $T in network value is more intact than ever. Governmental policies reacting to this economic crisis will fuel more fiat currency printing, and potentially negative interest rates ... these macroeconomic conditions are making more more bullish on the need for Bitcoin than ever. The only way to get out of this crisis will be to print absurd amounts of capital (for both the US and Europe). What are your thoughts about Bitcoin's potential and valuation??
S&P 500 earnings estimates for 2020 are dropping rapidly, as analysts price in the impact of this unprecedented economic crisis. Estimates have fallen more than 4% in just the past month, and I think they will fall another 10% (at least) next month. Right now, my rough guesstimate for 2020 S&P 500 EBIT per share is $100 ... about 39% lower than they were in 2019 (~$163). What is your guess? Do you think markets will fall lower?
Today on Twitter Donald Trump gave the go ahead to Tesla, GM and Ford to begin manufacturing ventilators, to deal with a potential shortage. Tesla has significant experience building HVAC systems in house, since the days of its original roadster (2008), as well as 'BioWeapon Defense Mode' for the Model X. I think this is an awesome story, and is a reason I'm proud to own Tesla stock!
Tesla has released an official 'Operational Update' about dealing with the current economic crisis. The company is shutting down both its Fremont, CA and Buffalo, NY factories for an indefinite period of time (my guess is at least two weeks). Tesla says it has plenty of cash on hand to "successfully navigate an extended period of uncertainty." I think the silver lining to all of this Tesla news is Shanghai's Gigafactory. It appears to be up and running and producing vehicles at record levels. This should help offset losses from Fremont going forward. At this time, Gigafactory Nevada will remain open.
Zoom stock is up 82% in 2020, outperforming nearly every asset in the world. Can this recent video conference IPO live up to the hype of its $40B valuation? In this video, I analyze Zoom's financials, growth rate, and what the long-term potential will be if Eric Yuan's vision is realized. What are your thoughts on Zoom?
Elon Musk offered to help make medical supplies for US hospitals (like ventilators, masks, etc) and Mayor de Blasio is taking him up on the offer. After a long twitter exchange (prompted by Nate Silver), it appears as if Tesla/SpaceX are reaching out to the New York City government and may supply them with direly needed medical equipment. I think this is an awesome initiative by Elon, and could be a win/win. NYC gets help, and Tesla's factory employees have something to do.
The WSJ reports that US airlines are looking for a ~$50B bailout/stimulus package in this midst of this economic turmoil. This has become a hot topic, as airlines spent tens of billions buying back their own stock during the past decade. Now they are turning to taxpayers to get them out of this rut .. when they should have been fortifying their balance sheets. What do you think? Is this fair? Should we bail them out? I think this is just the beginning of a lot of government stimulus ...
The market continues to free-fall as concerns mount about how a prolonged shutdown will impact the global economy. In this video I explore what will happen to Tesla's financials if a multi-quarter slowdown in the global economy unfolds. Will Tesla need more capital? Will they be able to survive?
Tesla has reach a production run-rate of 1,000 roofs/week (4MW), for its highly anticipated solarglass roof product. At $30K/roof, this implies a revenue run-rate of $1.5B+, and is likely growing rapidly. This milestone should accelerate energy generation (solar) deployment growth for Tesla in the coming quarters.
Waymo Is Failing

Waymo Is Failing

2020-03-1511:19

Waymo has partnered with Transdev to hire a fleet of drivers for its 'robotaxi' network. This deal, potentially in the hundreds of millions, signals Waymo is falling behind on its ambitious plans for Waymo One, its self-driving service. Waymo just raised $2.25B from outside investors at a $30B valuation, another sign Alphabet is distancing itself from the project. I still think Tesla is winning the self-driving race.
Sean Mitchell has been on the ground working to pass bill 167, which would allow electric vehicle makers to sell direct to consumers in the state of Colorado. This has gained major traction, and will make it easier for startups like Tesla & Rivian to compete in the state. If this is successful, this could cause a domino effect and allow Tesla to sell direct in other states where its been previously banned (Texas, Connecticut, etc).Thanks to Sean for coming on the show, and props for all of the work on this!
Elon Musk has confirmed via Tweet that Tesla is scouting locations for a "central US" gigafactory to build the Cybertruck & Model Y (for the east coast). Initially rumored to be in Texas, reports also indicate Nashville is in the running for this new location. My personal guess is the Austin, TX area will be selected ...
Twitter has come to an agreement with activist funds Elliott Management and Silver Lake Partners, that will keep Jack Dorsey on as CEO. Twitter is also issuing 2020 guidance for 20% mDAU growth, and accelerating revenue growth. Additionally, the company is launching a $2B share buyback. What are your thoughts on these changes??
Cash App posted Q4 2019 revenue of $361M (+147%) year, and is on pace to post more than $1.5B+ in 2020 revenue. Recent launches of stock investing (with no minimums) and international payments show a rapid pace of innovation & represent exciting new revenue opportunities. Cash App is quietly becoming a digital bank. With 24M MAU's (growing 60%), this is poised to be a growth driver for Square for years to come.
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CommentsΒ (1)

Matei Canavra

Incredible, incredible episode. Emanuel is humble, intelligent, and highly respectable for the approach to building out the Bubble vision

Sep 16th
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