Redefining Energy

Laurent and Gerard have a rapid overview of what’s going on regarding the Energy Transition in China and its political implication in the West.Record production of this, record production of that, overcapacity everywhere…We babble a lot, rant a bit, and conclude that we need to invite a real expert on the show.

What is the value of green electrons? Hard to say. Depends where, depends when. What is sure is that, in view of recent regulations and corporate commitments, they must be tracked.From an annual basis, we are now moving to an hourly basis, under the thrust of corporate initiatives like the GhGProtocol, RE-100 and EnergyTag. Behind this movement, BigTech such as Microsoft and Google see a need to track those green electrons as their energy consumption is on the way up… and it has to 24/7.Enter new innovative digital companies that are providing those complex and data-hungry services. Some platforms go even further, proposing to trade the green attributes of electrons. Renewabl is one of them.Lead by the charismatic JP Cerda, Renewabl is one of the most advanced of those startups. The company is the recent winner of the "2024 Energy Tech Challengers Award" in the FinTech categoryJP Cerda has a long history of trading green commodities, first at Shell and Orsted. Then a few years ago he managed to create Zeigo, the premier PPA auction platforms which he then successfully sold in 2022 to Schneider Electric. JP and his team really know what they are doing when it comes to designing and developing leading edge digital market places in the green sector.  We thank Amundi for supporting our show Disclosure: Laurent is an investor in Renewabl  A good article on the GoO market https://auroraer.com/media/guarantees-of-origin-market-set-for-growth-trajectory-projected-to-reach-3-7-bn-e-by-2030/

This week, Gerard and Laurent have been invited to a private event organized by Aquila Capital in March 2024, during the Global Infrastructure Conference, where they debate with Markus Wandt, CIO Aquila if “Renewables are still an Infrastructure play?”

The main hindrance to the development of renewables is the connection queue. Basically, grid operators tell developers “Sorry guys, we’re full”. A recent study by RMI has proven that this is simply not true. Grid operators are either too conservative or not incentivized to take more load. Old solutions. Old thinking.Grid Enhancing Technologies (GETs) are hardware and software solutions that are deployed within the existing transmission system, helping increase the capacity, flexibility, and efficiency of the current grid. They can perform functions such as rerouting power flows to avoid congested lines and providing data on real-time conditions that could enable more power to flow through a line when conditions allow — thus increasing our ability to best utilize the transmission infrastructure we already have.But beyond a better digital management, new technologies of cables are emerging, incorporating the best Material Science has to offer.  New conductor technologies could triple grid capacity with structures in the existing rights of way, while also reducing line loss by half.To talk about GETs and new conductors, we bring in Jason Huang, Co-founder and CEO of TS Conductor Corporation. Jason is PHD in material science and started his career in the aviation industry, working on civilian and military programs such as A350 and F35. TSConductor, supported by Breakthrough Ventures, NextEra and UK National Grid, is now rolling out a revolutionary new technology that will debottleneck the Grid and speed up the Energy Transition.  We thank our new partner AMUNDI, largest European Asset Manager and really committed to the Energy Transition   PS: 2nd minute - Laurent got “TO” wrong: it’s Topography Optimisation, not Technology OptimisationThe RMI report is here:https://rmi.org/insight/analyzing-gets-as-a-tool-for-increasing-interconnection-throughput-from-pjms-queue/The story about Amazon and AI is here https://www.pv-magazine.com/2024/03/08/amazon-says-us-utility-can-complete-power-flow-studies-in-hours-not-months/

This week, Gerard and Laurent talk about the 3 big energy gatherings that happened this week. Houston (CERAweek), Bilbao (WindEurope) and Berlin (Global Infrastructure Summit). Laurent and Gerard were in Berlin and report what they saw and heard.In a simple sentence à la John Wick “Yes, I think I’m back”

“It’s hard to play a good game when you have been served weak cards”. This is the perennial challenge of Japan when it comes to the Energy Transition. And the game is getting harder when your two main choices, nuclear and hydrogen, are proving extremely costly in a world of cheap renewables.How robust is a business model based on a protected internal market with high margins and limited competition allowing Japan Inc. to expand abroad at super competitive prices, but stifling innovation and diversification? Japan is “Prisoner of its geography” (to quote Tim Marshall); thankfully its answer has been a world class level of engineering allowing to partially overcome its shortcomings.And Gerard, during his recent trip to Japan, has witnessed some extraordinary achievements in the energy transition in the downstream sector, with extreme energy efficiency, retail innovations, and digital developments.We have the pleasure to welcome Shuichiro Kawamura, who heads one of the rare investments’ funds focusing on the Energy Transition. Established in 2006, Energy & Environment Investment (EEI) is Japan's first VC firm solely dedicated to the energy and environment sectors. They support startups with innovative technologies and services in this space, aiming to drive sustainable growth and positive global impact. As of Q1_24, the AUM of EEI is around US$500MM, with more than 130 portfolio companies. There is no easy formula in Japan. Only the smarts will survive.We thank our friends and partners AQUILA CAPITAL for supporting our show.

This week, Gerard and Laurent talk about Conferences / Exhibition that they recently attended and what they have learned there. Gerard was in Germany’s E-World while Laurent was in London’s Energy Storage Summit.And they act as mirror opposites: "back in business" in Germany while the storage in London realises that the Champagne year of 2022 cannot easily be repeated. The storage industry nevertheless rejoices at the fall in price of batteries while the classic Utilities are being challenged by new innovations such as “balcony solar”

The two limiting factors for a faster deployment of EVs are the price of vehicles and “range anxiety”. While the former is being addressed by an ever-growing number of cheaper models available on the market, the latter is also experiencing a revolution.You would believe that such an opportunity would be grasped by Utilities. Surprise! They didn’t move. Oil companies have started investing, but at their slow pace. In the Automotive sector, only Tesla has seized on the challenge, and how brilliantly! So, the passivity of incumbents has created an overture for talented and dynamic entrepreneurs. We have decided to invite one of them.Our guest is Toddington Harper, CEO of Gridserve, a leading UK charging network. Gerard, Laurent and Toddington discuss all recent developments in EV charging from technology to software to interoperability. We are going to talk about Electric Super Hubs, Electric Retail Hubs and the industry-leading Electric Forecourts®.In the coming years, the whole EV charging landscape will totally change and petrol stations will be looked at like we look at CDs and Cassette Tapes. At the heart of the revolution, focus on a consumer-centric approach and a new way of thinking holistically called “sun-to-wheel”. Charging is not a commodity, it’s a service, and only the best service providers will emerge as winners.We thank AQUILA CAPITAL for supporting the show.

This week, Gerard and Laurent talk about three great reports that have recently been published and deliver some world-class data about past achievements, current status and the direction of travel. As a sign of things to come, European Carbon has lost 36% since the beginning of the year.We are here saluting Ember and their power/emission statistics – European Electricity review https://ember-climate.org/ https://ember-climate.org/insights/research/european-electricity-review-2024/Then the new bible, from Nat Bullard, available here. Everything Climate and the Energy Transition in 200 slides. https://www.nathanielbullard.com/presentationsAnd for the battery buffs, the encyclopaedia in everything batteries, which comes from the Volta Foundation https://www.volta.foundation/annual-battery-report

To discuss everything that’s going on in the PPA market (and a lot of things are happening), Gerard and Laurent bring back the excellent Luca Pedretti, CEO and co-founder Pexapark. Pexapark is the leading swiss-based intelligence platform on PPA in Europe.With Luca, we have an extensive conversation about the recent evolutions in the PPA market. Trends, duration, size, shapes, types of contracts, risk-sharing arrangements... We try to lay out how the market prices the following risks: capture risks, cannibalization risks, curtailment risks, settlement risks, credit risks…Then the discussion moves to the Tech titans and their unquenchable thirst for green power are reshaping the market for green electrons. How new innovations like hourly Green Certificates (GoOs, REGOS) are appearing and adding some transparency in the price discovery process?We finally debate about those soviet-era industrial policies in term of fuel choices (nuclear, hydrogen) that seem to ignore the permanent technological innovations (batteries), the need for flex, and the power of the market signals. A lot of those themes are also detailed in Pexapark annual PPA report available belowWe thank our friends and partners of Aquila Capital for supporting the show. Link to Pexapark 𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐚𝐧 𝐏𝐏𝐀 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤 2024 Reporthttps://pexapark.com/european-ppa-market/ In this report you’ll find:💡 A 360° 𝐫𝐞𝐯𝐢𝐞𝐰 𝐨𝐟 𝐏𝐏𝐀 𝐝𝐞𝐚𝐥-𝐦𝐚𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 in 2023: Top PPA countries, buyers & sellers, and more thought-provoking data-driven insights💡 𝐍𝐞𝐱𝐭 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐫𝐬 on the rising: Hybrid PPAs, 24/7 green procurement, PPAs for Green H2 Production, Multi-buyer PPAs💡 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐬 setting the rhythm: PPA pricing, market fundamentals and risks, regulatory environment, CfDs vs PPAs💡 Distilment of our 𝐓𝐨𝐩 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 2024

This week, Gerard is out, so Laurent does the Minutes with Michael Barnard, host of our sister show Redefining Energy – Tech.On the menu this week, an overview of the decarbonisation of shipping. What will be electrified? What role for Hydrogen, Green Ammonia, Methanol and Biodiesel? And the answers are hybrid and multi-fuels.Links to Michael’s articles on the subject in Forbes https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelbarnard/2023/12/05/how-will-climate-action-change-the-face-of-global-shipping/https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelbarnard/2023/12/29/hydrogen-half-truths-keep-shipping-fuel-hopes-afloat/https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelbarnard/2023/12/11/different-segments-of-the-shipping-market-have-different-climate-fixes/https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelbarnard/2023/12/17/how-much-shipping-can-just-use-batteries-for-energy/https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelbarnard/2023/12/20/shipping-still-has-efficiency-levers-to-pull-for-climate-action/https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelbarnard/2023/12/27/what-energy-will-ships-that-cant-electrify-use-including-wind/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelbarnard/2024/01/05/2023-was-year-of-methanol-for-shipping-but-that-likely-wont-last/

At COP28 was endorsed the concept of “tripling renewables” – all good, but a lot of people forgot to mention the rest of the sentence which is “and doubling of Energy Efficiency”. In the latest IEA report, there is a 400bnUSD Energy Efficiency pie, almost at the level of Oil Upstream, and more than into Grids. Nobody talks about it. Buildings, Industrial, Transport. Electrification, Heat Pumps.So, Laurent and Gerard thought that is was time. There are very few specialist of Energy Efficiency like Jonathan Maxwell.Not only has he authored an extraordinary book called the EDGE, but he also manages Sustainable Development Capital SDCL, a multibillion Energy Efficiency fund. Efficient and decentralised generation of energy (or ‘EDGE’) solutions represent the largest, fastest, cheapest, and cleanest source of greenhouse gas emission reductions and energy security. Datacenters, Lighting, Building, Heating, that’s the unknown world we are going to dive into. And it is a fast growing sector. Persistent tails winds such as energy security, decarbonisation and costs are powerful drivers for a continuous expansion of that sector. We thank Aquila Capital for supporting our show

Why has the fund raised by infrastructure fund drastically collapsed in 2023. Is it linked to lackluster returns in a high interest rate environment?At the same time, we have seen numerous acquisitions of mid size infrastructure specialists by larger global asset managers, case in point the very spectacular purchase of Global Infrastructure Partners by Blackrock (or is it a reverse take over?).Where is the infrastructure investing going? That’s what on the menu of this week’s Minutes Join Laurent and Gerard in Berlin – 20/21 March 2024 – Global Infrastructure Summit https://www.peievents.com/en/event/infrastructure-investor-global-summit/

After two years of irrational exuberance, we are back to earth when it comes to Cleantech investment.On the menu this week, Gerard and Laurent are reviewing the Cleantech 100 report (15th edition). The overall ecosystem is down 40% yoy, but it has also cleaned the foam and is now revealing the future.We discuss the 5 sub-sectors (agriculture, transportation, materials, resources, and energy) Our conclusion is that the sector has digested its excesses and is on a path to a new start.Link to the report https://www.cleantech.com/the-global-cleantech-100/

Long term renewables assets portfolios provide stable returns. In most of the world, they are held by pension funds, insurance companies or big infrastructure funds. We have the exception of the UK with listed Infrastructure funds, also known as Yieldcos. For more than a decade, Yieldcos have been the backbone of the Energy Transition investing.To explain what are listed Infrastructure funds, we bring in Colette Ord, Director, Investment Companies Research Property & Infrastructure at DBNumis. Deutsche Numis is a leading UK-focused investment bank leader in the UK market, the adviser of choice for listed companies, including one-fifth of the FTSE 350 index, with an average market capitalisation of £1bn, and has acted on the most UK IPOs over the past decade.Colette Ord has analysed the listed infrastructure and renewables investment company segment of the London market since the launch of the first fund in 2006, so we dig into what was the thesis behind their launch 10 years ago.We investigate how they delivered in terms of performance. We then dig deep into the key metrics of NAV (Net Asset Value). What is NAV, how it is calculated, how is it consistent. Then we analyse the interaction between free-risk interest rates and valuation of Yieldcos.We conclude on their future, especially how they are progressively morphing into IPP (independent Power Producers)An Episode powered by AXPO Link to Bruce Huber’s paper on Yieldcos. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/yieldco-fallout-bargain-zombie-category-bruce-huber-jnbie/

First Episode on the Redefining Energy MINUTES on the main channel.On the menu this week, an update of nuclear and offshore wind, two important (but minor) sources of carbon-free energy.And some news on the scandal at Cummins, and their pollution cheating device, costing them 1.6bnUSD. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/cummins-take-about-204-bln-charge-fourth-quarter-2023-12-22/

Happy new year to all our listeners.It has become a tradition for the first episode of the year: Gerard and Laurent present their 2024 Predictions in the Energy Transition. And we brought in our friend (and co-host of our sister show RE TECH) to spice up the conversation: Michael Barnard. Michael also acts as referee to score the predictions that were made a year ago.Record installation of everything Energy Transition: Solar, Batteries, Heat Pumps, EV (Gerard)Massive consolidation in the EV sector – Toyota will buy Panasonic (Laurent) Volatility in the Energy market is here to stay (Gerard) New alternatives to Li-Ion in Stationary Storage (Laurent) The Energy Transition has no plan, it just goes (Gerard) Nuclear: Westinghouse takes over Europe (Laurent) Well, the result was that Gerard won (but Laurent is considering filing a reclamation)Now, to 2024. Our 6 predictions are:Stellantis will outsource its EV production in China Politics: Elections in 2024 could derail the Energy Transition Oversupply of everything energy related – Prices are going down Stronger top-down governance of Transmission and Interconnection The return of Clean Energy shares China will gain massive international market in Wind and EVs We thank our partner AXPO for supporting the show.

Final Episode of 2023 (and last one for the MINUTES on their own channel). All episodes will be on this channel going forward.Here are the Redefining Energy Awards for 2023:Company of the Year - BYDStart Up of the Year - PV CaseDeal of the Year – Tesla and NACSTrade of the Year – Short Gas TTFScandal of the Year – Venture Global and the 200 LNG cargoes heistPerson of the Year – Jigar ShahStupidest Quote of the Year - Kim KardashianLINK TO THAT COMMERCIAL https://youtu.be/9EASYmElZuU?si=ygpWeT5FeUsQ0e26Book of the Year: How Big things get done – Bent Flyvbjerg & Dan GardnerHappy New Year to all our Listeners.Thank you for your unwavering confidence!And we will see you again on the 2nd of January 2024 for our famous Predictions 2024!

Last episode of the Year. And what a year. We passed 1m downloads since inception. In 2023, we will have 470k downloads up 34% compared to 2022. Gerard and Laurent saw the Weaponisation of Energy coming: two years ago in Oct 2021, we did Episode 60 called “the Natgaspocalypse”. That was 5 months before the invasion of Ukraine. Two years into weaponizing energy, it is time to look back and assess. What were the immediate impacts of that crisis. How to evaluate the short-term responses (market, supply chain, government, behaviour, fuel choice). Did the Energy system show resilience, or have we just been lucky? To make sense of all of this, we brought Andy Sommer on the show. Andy is head of Fundamental Analysis, Modelling & Meteorology at Axpo, a major Renewable Energy Producer and Trader. Andy is responsible for Axpo’s short and mid-term analysis of all global energy markets, from oil to gas and coal, all the way to European power and emission markets. With Andy, we debate how did that shock impact the eternal debate Climate vs Security of Supply vs Affordability. And beyond the short-term consequences, what are the long-term impacts and the change of mindset that will give more emphasis on Energy Security. Gerard (the Dove) and Laurent (the Hawk) come with different conclusions, but nevertheless agree on the path forward where Energy Security aligns with the Energy Transition. We thank Aquila Capital for supporting our show. They have been great partners since inception. Announcement:Big changes coming in 2024. We go weekly.In fact, we are merging the main show, this show, with our second show called Minutes. We created the sister-show Minutes two years ago as a separate experiment, and we have been pleased by its progression, so it is time to go mainstream. So, in 2024, we will have our main show, not the first and 15 of each month, but the first and third Monday of each month. And then we will have a new revamped minutes (less than 10mns) where we will freewheeling discuss about a topic making the news or important to us. That will be on the second and fourth Monday of each month (and fifth if there is a fifth Monday, which apparently is quite rare). See how it goes. Your comments are welcome.Which means, friends of Minutes, that the Minutes channel will cease to exist. Stay on the Main show for your Minutes.

This Sunday, a Special Episode. We are going live to COP28 in Dubai.Our special guest is Bruce Douglas, CEO Global Renewable Alliance, who is spearheading the effort around the key message “Double down, Triple Up” or how we will decarbonise by tripling renewables by the end of the decade.Bruce tells us how it is on the ground, how he is having the busiest week of his life, and how the positive message is now being relayed by hundreds of Heads of State and key business decision makers."COP28 text finally agreed - this is HUGE! Massive gratitude to everyone who made this possible 🙏 - proudest moment of my career so far... 😍 “The inclusion of tripling renewables in the final COP28 text is unprecedented and signals the start of a massive clean energy revolution. It is the first time all nations have recognised renewable energy as the main solution to the climate crisis, representing a paradigm shift in the energy transition."