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Conversations with Commerce Trust
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Conversations with Commerce Trust

Author: Commerce Trust Company

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Various specialists at Commerce Trust Company dive into the latest research, insights and market news in Conversations with Commerce Trust. From deconstructing the headlines to foundational investment insights, this podcast is designed to help you understand how it impacts you and your family’s personal and financial goals.This podcast is designed to provide investment information for Commerce Trust Company clients. It is intended to provide general information only and is reflective of the opinions of the speakers and not necessarily of Commerce Bancshares, Inc. Always consult your legal and tax advisors. Not FDIC Insured | May Lose Value | No Bank Guarantee
31 Episodes
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In this edition of “Five Minutes With Scott Colbert, CFA,” Scott explains three wild cards in play that affect the economy in the near term:  1) When will the debt ceiling be extended; 2) How will China’s slowing growth affect the global economic picture; and 3) How “sticky” is the inflation spike and what will it do to interest rates?  https://info.commercetrustcompany.com/five-minutes-with-colbert-101
Heading into the Labor Day weekend, Chief Economist Scott Colbert takes a moment to review economic activity in August and highlights why we're still optimistic, despite a possible bumpy road in the near term, on our overall economic momentum going forward. https://info.commercetrustcompany.com/five-minutes-with-colbert-92
Earlier this week the stock market was up almost 20% on a year-to-date basis.  It has been driven upwards primarily on the back of an expanding economy, explosion in corporate earnings, and even a very, very positive recent employment report.  Since then, however,  it's clear that some storm clouds are brewing and we could experience periodic braking and a temporary slowdown.  Market observers are pulling back their outlook for growth somewhat in the second half of the year.  As Commerce Chief Economist Scott Colbert, CFA, explained in a previous segment,  we are heading into the part of the recovery where we are transitioning from a reliance on government stimulus to a natural, self-sustaining economy.  Scott sees this as rough weather that we're going to have to get through on our way to our long-term, positive economic outlook, as he further explains in this edition of “Five Minutes With Scott Colbert.”https://info.commercetrustcompany.com/five-minutes-with-colbert-820
In this week’s “Five Minutes With Scott Colbert” video, Scott gives a glimpse at how the voting members of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee develop their policy positions on evolving economic activity and exercise their influence on monetary policy-setting matters.  By focusing on the analysis of individual members in the course of the eight meetings the Central Bank conducts each year, Fed watchers can see the changing trends and shifts in the thinking of the overall body.  Will the Fed begin “tapering” their purchases of Treasuries and start raising interest rates sooner than they might have intended as the effects of the pandemic diminish?  Colbert suggests you can answer this question by looking at the individual positions that Fed Bank Presidents like James Bullard in St. Louis, Eric Rosengren in Boston and Robert S. Kaplan in Dallas are starting to articulate.  Will the rest of the Fed adopt a speedier return to normalize interest rates?  
Scott takes the position that the inflation spike upon us right now is still transitory as the Federal Reserve believes, but it is going to take longer than anticipated to moderate, probably sometime next year.  So expect economic stories on this inflationary speed bump to be a regular occurrence in the media for quite a while.  We will likely not settle back into the comfortable 1% to 2% inflation rate range of the recent past, but rather establish a new norm of 2% to 3% in 2022.  
Today, in the latest edition of our video series, Chief Economist Scott Colbert covers why growth is the operative word in the U.S. economy at the moment – annualized GDP growth in the 8% range, something that hasn’t been seen in the United States since 1983.
Commerce Trust Company Chief Economist Scott Colbert covers last week’s unanticipated miss in target U.S. employment numbers and the potential for growing inflation and global markets.
Commerce Trust Company Director of Investment Strategy Joe Williams summarizes the wild ride equities have had so far this year.
Commerce Trust Company Chief Economist Scott Colbert predicts what the economic bounce-back looks like in terms of growth
Our Director of Investment Research Barbara Turley gives her insight into what we do for our investor portfolios in times of market stress, like the current period during the COVID pandemic. 
If you haven’t filed your 2019 tax return but expect to file by July 15 per new IRS guidelines, what do you need to do?  That’s just one of the questions Commerce Trust Company East Region Tax Manager Tom Bassett, J.D., CPA, addresses in his informative podcast on deferred IRS tax deadlines and other financial considerations for your 2019 return.  The Coronavirus outbreak makes the tax season a moving target, but Tom’s insights may help you navigate strategies that can help your household or business.  
We have a brief update from our Chief Economist Scott Colbert on the growing effect of stimulus programs, and a deeper dive into what’s going on in the tax-exempt municipal bond market from our Director of Municipal Bond Management Brian Musielak
Listen as Commerce Trust Company's Investment Policy Team discusses the recent market turbulence and it's outlook on where the economy is headed.  TOPICS INCLUDE:■ Impact of coronavirus on the economy■ Oil crisis■ Stocks■ Financial marketsThe risk of loss and securities and other investments can be substantial. You should always carefully consider whether investments either entered into directly by you or on a discretionary managed basis through Commerce Trust Company or any financial institution is appropriate for you in light of your investment objectives, financial circumstances, tax status, your tolerance to risk and your investment experience. In considering whether to trade or invest, you should inform yourself and be aware of the risks. Generally, non-depository investments offered in connection with commerce bank and its affiliates are not guaranteed, are not FDIC insured and as noted earlier may lose value. Past performance is no guarantee of future results in the opinions and other information in the commentary provided as of this date and are subject to change. Information provided is for the purpose of general education, information or illustration only and is not to be treated as the opinion of Commerce Trust Company or Commerce Bank as a recommendation on any future investment or market behavior.Providing this information which may be a value to you or others in the general audience shall not detract from an investor's responsibilities to take all such steps and make all such inquiries as may be necessary or desirable to ensure that you fully understand and are familiar with any potential future investment. Neither commerce nor any of its officers, employees or agents have made any recommendation or given any advice as to the terms and profitability of any investment or market activity which may be referenced here. Accordingly, you understand that you are and shall at all times be fully responsible for any investment transaction you choose to enter into, and that you shall not have relied on any of the proceeding or following information from Commerce as a basis for an investment decision. Please also note that Commerce does not offer tax, legal or specific estate planning advice. And while we may provide information or express general opinions from time to time, such information or opinions are not offered as professional tax or legal advice. If you are in any doubt about the risks involved in any trading or investment arrangements or you are uncertain of or have not understood any aspect of this risk disclosure statement, you should seek independent professional advice. Markets, economic forecast and specific investments can change from time to time based on a variety of individual interrelated or complex factors of varying degree. This disclosure statement cannot of course disclose all the risks and other significant aspects of investments, economies, or markets in which you may elect to transact from time to time. You should therefore carefully study relevant investment arrangements in advance of making decisions regarding investing.
After many months of gridlock, progress is finally being made on several key issues that had been clouding the global economic outlook.  Should you “stay the course”?  Our Chief Economist, Scott Colbert discusses his economic outlook for 2020 touching on issues including the Chinese trade deal, what a "wealth effect" means and how he sees the stock market moving in 2020.https://www.commercetrustcompany.com/news-and-insights/2020/2020-market-outlook---stay-the-course
Disclosure: The risk of loss in securities and other Investments can be substantial. You should always carefully consider whether Investments either entered into directly by you, or on a discretionary managed basis through Commerce Trust or any financial institution, is appropriate for you, in light of your investment objectives, financial circumstances, tax status, your tolerance to risks and your investment experience. In considering whether to trade or invest, you should inform yourself and be aware of the risks generally. Non-depository investments offered in connection with Commerce Bank and its affiliates are not guaranteed, are not FDIC insured, and as noted earlier, may lose value. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and the opinions and other information in the commentary are provided as of this date and are subject to change. Information provided is for the purpose of general education, information, or illustration only and is not to be treated as the opinion of Commerce Trust Company or Commerce Bank as a recommendation on any future investment or market behavior.Providing this information which may be of value to you or others in the general audience shall not detract from an investor’s responsibilities to take all such steps and make all such inquiries as may be necessary or desirable to ensure that you fully understand and are familiar with any potential future investment. Neither Commerce nor any of its officers, employees or agents have made any recommendation or given any advice as to the terms and profitability of any investment or market activity which may be referenced here. Accordingly, you understand that you are and shall at all times be, fully responsible for any investment transaction you choose to enter into, and that you shall not have relied on any of the preceding or following information from Commerce as a basis for an investment decision.Please also note that Commerce does not offer tax, legal or specific estate planning advice, and while we may provide information or express general opinions from time to time, such information or opinions are not offered as professional tax or legal advice. If you are in any doubt about the risks involved in any trading or investment arrangements or you are uncertain of or have not understood any aspect of this Risk Disclosure Statement, you should seek independent professional advice. Markets, economic forecasts and specific investments can change from time to time based on a variety of individual, interrelated or complex factors of varying degree. This disclosure statement cannot, of course, disclose all the risks and other significant aspects of investments, economies or markets in which you may elect to transact from time to time. You should therefore carefully study relevant investment arrangements in advance of making decisions regarding investing.December 2019 Commerce Trust Company is a division of Commerce Bank.
Presuming that maintaining your independence in your later years is a worthwhile objective, then maybe it’s time to meet your future self.
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