Montel Weekly

The UK is reviewing a shift in how it prices electricity from a single wholesale market, with two locational alternatives under consideration: nodal or zonal. This week’s pod addresses the pros and cons of locational prices and whether they will help or hinder the UK’s quest for net-zero emissions.   Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel Guests: Stephen Woodhouse,  Director Afry Management Consulting and Phil Hewitt, Director, Montel EnAppSys.

World climate negotiators will meet for UN-led talks in Dubai next week in attempt to slow warming that is exacerbating extreme weather from flooding to heatwaves to drought. Could COP28 provide impetus to Europe’s carbon market, where prices have dropped from a record high above EUR 101/t to a one year-low below EUR 75/t amid weak fundamentals and rising geopolitical risks. Listen to a discussion on the outlook for the EU’s key climate policy tool. Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel Guests: Ingvild Sørhus, Lead Carbon Analyst, Veyt 

The BritNed cable has boosted power trading between the UK and the Netherlands. Listen to a discussion on post-Brexit trading, the impact of more prevalent negative prices and how the platform could set the standard for other interconnectors. Was the power link shackled or freed by the UK’s exit from the EU? Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuests: Nils Teipel, Commercial Operations Manager, BritNed and Daniel Homoki-Farkas, Managing Director, Supercharge.

Debate has begun in Norway on the EU’s fourth energy package, that dates back to 2019. Listen to a discussion on the key elements of the legislation and why they are proving controversial. The perceived powers of the EU regulatory body Acer are of concern to many, but have they been misunderstood? Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel Guests: Catherine Banet, Professor of Law, Head of Department of Energy and Resources Law, University of Oslo; Olav Vilnes, Editor Nordics, Montel. 

Corporate demand for guarantees of origin (GO) is hotting up and prices could soon be on the rise. Listen to a discussion on the growing importance of GOs not just for generators of electricity but also for a wider range of companies. Could the GO price become higher than the wholesale electricity price?Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Bruno Brunetti, Head of low-carbon electricity analytics, S&P Global Commodity Insights. 

What will be the impact of the Israel-Hamas conflict on an already jittery and volatile gas market? Listen to a discussion of the potential consequences of a cut to Egyptian gas exports amid lower supply from Israel and what the situation will have on plans for a regional gas hub. In addition, what is the possibility of a reduction in LNG supplies through the Suez Canal and the Strait of Hormuz should the war escalate?Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Agata Loskot-Strachota, Energy Policy Research Fellow, Bruegel.

The recent incident of suspected sabotage affecting the Balticconnector – the gas pipeline linking Finland and Estonia – has highlighted the vulnerability of Europe’s energy network, especially offshore pipelines. Who or what is threatening gas links and power cables? Listen to a discussion on why it is imperative that countries work together to protect critical infrastructure and the ways in which this can be achieved.Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Jakub Godzimirski, Norwegian Institute of International Affairs

The months ahead will be filled with uncertainty – and price volatility – as energy market participants assess the consequences of the escalating conflict in the Middle East and potential sabotage to the gas pipeline linking Finland with Estonia. Will these events override market fundamentals? Listen to a discussion of the key developments in UK and continental wholesale power and gas markets in the last quarter and the outlook for the coming months. Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuests: Jean-Paul Harreman, Director, Montel EnAppSys,                   Paul Buckworth, Principal Consultant, Montel EnAppSys.

European wholesale gas prices are falling, stocks are close to full capacity and LNG is still flowing to the region, though as winter looms market participants cannot afford to relax, yet. Listen to a discussion on the factors that will influence supply and demand in the coming months. What is the risk that Russian LNG will completely stop flowing to Europe? And can we expect renewed industrial action at LNG facilities in Australia?  Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel Guest: Andrés Cala, LNG Correspondent, Montel

Investors into the UK's renewable sector have expressed disbelief, disappointment and anger over plans by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to relax rules to phase out fossil fuel cars and boilers. Listen to a discussion on why the populist move makes no sense politically or financially as it will deprive areas outside of London of manufacturing opportunities and export potential. Will investors now prioritise other markets as the UK backpedals?Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Helena Anderson, COO, Ikigai Capital 

Norwegian power prices have swung from record highs last year to all-time lows this year as supply in the hydropower-intensive nation shifted from deficit to surplus. While dry or wet weather generally drives prices, Norway is set for a long-term change from a power exporter to an importer as new capacity lags demand growth. Listen to a discussion about Norway’s struggle with new capacity, notably onshore wind – with only 3 of 356 local communities in approval – and why investors are looking elsewhere due to punitive and retrospective tax measures. Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuests: Lars Ove Skorpen, Director, Pareto Securities                    Arvid Moss, Executive Vice President, Hydro Energy.

Floods, wildfires, heatwaves, drought and hurricanes. Extreme weather patterns are becoming more frequent in Europe and across the globe. But what does this mean for the way energy is produced, consumed and transported? Listen to a discussion on how the energy market will cope with shifting weather patterns like El Nino as the planet heats up. And, what's the outlook for winter in Europe? Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Robin Girmes, Managing Partner at Energy Weather

France has announced ambitious plans to build new nuclear plants, with up to 14 reactors potentially online by 2050. Yet its much vaunted new generation reactor at Flamanville is massively overbudget and more than a decade behind schedule. Listen to a discussion on why the grandiose plans by president Emmanuel Macron may not be realised, along with analysis of the main issues affecting the country's renewables objectives. Will it meet its 2030 targets?Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Franck Gbaguidi, Director, Energy, Climate and Resources, Eurasia Group

Wholesale gas prices have been very volatile in August, largely over concerns of a reduction in supply due to strikes at Australian LNG facilities. The market has softened in recent days but risks of further spikes remain. Listen to a discussion on the price impact of the strike, maintenance on the Norwegian continental shelf and a potential cold snap. Also, how safe is northern Europe’s gas infrastructure from attack?Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Ole Hvalbye, Commodities Analyst, SEB

Europe is scaling up solar power capacity like never before and could exceed the 46 GW installed last year. But what happens when there is too much feeding the grid? Listen to a discussion on output curtailments, negative prices, and dealing with network constraints. Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Naomi Chevillard, Head of Regulatory Affairs, Solar Power Europe

By pledging to “max out” oil and gas reserves and criticising “loony” green policies, UK prime minister Rishi Sunak appears to be driving a wedge between his government and the opposition Labour party. Listen to a discussion on the country’s faltering climate goals, why offshore wind farms are proving challenging and the fierce debate around urban low-emission zones (Ulez). And, will Britons really be cooking their turkeys on new nuclear power in 2028 (11 years later than originally planned)?Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Antony Froggatt, Senior Research Fellow, Chatham House

Algorithmic trading has rapidly developed in Europe’s short-term power markets with about 85% of transactions now performed by robots. Listen to a discussion on how machines react to challenging market conditions and why it is important to keep them in check via human oversight. We also touch on the issues of data transparency and how some of Europe’s short-term markets may be prone to insider trading.Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Amani Joas, Managing Director, CF Flex Power

A temporary EU ban on Icelandic GOs stirred the guarantees of origin market, raising questions about the credibility of the system amid double counting concerns. Listen to a discussion about why the EU renewables watchdog, the Association of Issuing Bodies (AIB), rattled the GO market and what the utility on the island did to lift the suspension.Host: Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Tinna Traustadóttir, Executive Vice President Sales and Customer Service, Landsvirkjun

In the final episode before the summer break, we look at policy developments in Brussels and Berlin. As the energy crisis appears to be easing, we discuss the main policy issues of the past six months from the European Commission and Germany. Why is a spat brewing over plans to issue contracts for difference to existing nuclear plants and why is there opposition to Poland’s proposal to subsidise its coal plants? In addition, has Germany managed to secure gas supply ahead of the winter?Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuests: Siobhan Hall, Correspondent Brussels, Montel;                   Nathan Witkop, Correspondent Germany, Montel.

This week’s episode discusses the hydrological situation in the Nordic and Alpine regions. Reservoir levels in Norway, Sweden and Finland are lower than average, but do not currently pose concerns for winter supply. Listen to a discussion with Mr Hydrology about power exports from Norway, and the outlook for river flows and temperatures in central Europe. Will cooling issues plague France’s nuclear fleet again this summer?Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel Guest: Eylert Ellefsen, Analyst, Energy Quantified