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Financial Insights

Author: Ford Financial Group

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Welcome to Ford Financial Group's Financial Insights Podcast, where we review subjects relevant to investing, and topics that impact our clients and their plans for retirement.Investment advice is offered through Ford Financial Group, a Registered Investment Advisor and separate entity from LPL Financial. The Financial Advisors of Ford Financial Group are also Registered Representatives with and securities are offered through LPL Financial, Member SIPC, www.sipc.org.For a list of states in which we are registered to do business, please visit www.FordFG.com.1-856451
159 Episodes
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At the end of January, spotlight will shift from earnings to the Federal Reserve (Fed) next week as they wrap up their 2-day monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, February 1. This wee Brian discusses how market expectations are set for an increase of 25 basis points (bps) in the fed funds rate, which would shift the Fed’s target range up to 4.50%–4.75% from 4.25%–4.50%. There will be no updated Summary of Economic Projections accompanying the meeting, leaving investors to sift through the policy statement and Chair Powell’s post-meeting press conference for any potential clues on the path of future policy.Chart: 2 Year Treasury Yield vs Fed Fund Target Rate Tracking #1-05357454Ford Financial Group on FacebookFord Financial Group on YouTubeQuestions?Find us at FordFG.comEmail us at info@fordfg.comMusic:Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source.
Win, Lose, or Recover?

Win, Lose, or Recover?

2022-12-3013:56

We finally made it to the end of 2022! Today marks the last day of trading for a  challenging year for equity and fixed income markets. Surging inflation, unprecedented global monetary policy tightening, China’s battle with COVID-19, rising recession fears, and the Russia-Ukraine war have been a few of the major headwinds. The arduous backdrop has underpinned a 19.2% loss for the S&P 500 as of December 29, likely making it the seventh-worst year for the index since 1928.Charts:Annual Winner/Loser Sector ReturnsAnnual Winner-Loser Sector Return SpreadsAnnual Sector Winner-Loser TableLong/Short Sector Convergence ModelTracking # 1-05353220Ford Financial Group on FacebookFord Financial Group on YouTubeQuestions?Find us at FordFG.comEmail us at info@fordfg.comMusic:Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source.
Is hope an investing strategy? No, but as November draws to a close, many investors are hoping some holiday cheer in stock markets and a potential December rally. In this episode Brian takes a look at what clues seasonality data may give us for stock market performance in December. It turns out that while, historically, December has been a very strong month for stocks, in recent years seasonality trends have been weaker, and a December rally has often failed to appear following a difficult year for stocks.Charts:December up more than any other monthDecember seasonality not as strong latelyA bad year or midterm can stifle a December rallyTracking # 1-05349041Ford Financial Group on FacebookFord Financial Group on YouTubeQuestions?Find us at FordFG.comEmail us at info@fordfg.comMusic:Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source.
"Yield Curve Inversion Reaches New Extremes" was the eye opening headline from the Wall Street Journal this week, and it certainly grabs attention and probably leads to some investor panic. But what does "yield curve inversion" actually mean for you as an investor, and exactly which yield curve is the better predictor of recessions? This week Brian tackles what you need to know about the yield curve, its predictive abilities, and whether investors should be concerned.LPL Chart of the DayTracking 1-05348396Ford Financial Group on FacebookFord Financial Group on YouTubeQuestions?Find us at FordFG.comEmail us at info@fordfg.comMusic:Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source.
This week we're joined by Joe Perry, a loan officer with Precision Home Loans, who gives a honest assessment of where the housing market, mortgage rates, and housing generally stand in light of recent interest rate increases.If you have questions for Joe from this episode, you can find him at www.therealjoeperry.com.Ford Financial Group on FacebookFord Financial Group on YouTubeQuestions?Find us at FordFG.comEmail us at info@fordfg.comMusic:Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source.
This week Brian discusses how the Federal Reserve (Fed) ended its two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this week and the outcome was broadly in line with market expectations. As expected, the Committee raised short-term interest rates by 0.75% to take the fed funds rate to 4.0% (upper bound). However, during the press conference, Powell suggested he sees rates higher than expected at the last forecast round in September, indicating a terminal rate above 5%. Bond markets have priced in a terminal rate slightly above 5% by the May 2023 meeting and then marginal cuts throughout the year.LPL Chart of the DayTracking # 1-05343828Ford Financial Group on FacebookFord Financial Group on YouTubeQuestions?Find us at FordFG.comEmail us at info@fordfg.comMusic:Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source.
A Rebound in Growth?

A Rebound in Growth?

2022-10-2917:02

This week Brian talks about how, after two consecutive quarters of negative growth, the U.S. economy grew at a 2.6% annualized rate in the third quarter, driven by a resilient consumer sector. Real personal spending, roughly 70% of the economy, grew 1.4% annualized, slightly slower than the previous quarter.LPL Chart of the DayTracking # 1-05341645Ford Financial Group on FacebookFord Financial Group on YouTubeQuestions?Find us at FordFG.comEmail us at info@fordfg.comMusic:Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source.
The core bond index (as defined by the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond index) is seeing losses unlike any year since its inception. Core bonds are down nearly 16% this year and this year’s losses have wiped out five years of gains for the index.  Because bonds operate differently from stocks, this week Brian reviews how long it might take to recover this year’s lossesLPL Chart of possible bond returnsTracking ID: 1-05339279Ford Financial Group on FacebookFord Financial Group on YouTubeQuestions?Find us at FordFG.comEmail us at info@fordfg.comMusic:Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source.
Just like muscle fatigue is part of any intense training program, volatility is an unavoidable part of the investment process. It’s easy for investors to forget that volatility is the norm, not the exception. This week Brian addresses 5 ways to handle volatility as an investor. Tracking ID: 1-05322459Ford Financial Group on FacebookFord Financial Group on YouTubeQuestions?Find us at FordFG.comEmail us at info@fordfg.comMusic:Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source.
Ryan, Brian, and Nik discuss the terrible end to the third quarter of 2022, which gave the S&P 500 its 3rd straight quarterly loss, the worst month since March 2020, and the worst September since 2008!Ford Financial Group on FacebookFord Financial Group on YouTubeQuestions?Find us at FordFG.comEmail us at info@fordfg.comMusic:Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source. Tracking ID: Ford Financial Group on FacebookFord Financial Group on YouTubeQuestions?Find us at FordFG.comEmail us at info@fordfg.comMusic:Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source.
This week Brian discusses how the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) increased the target rate by 75 basis points to a 3.25% upper bound and delivered a more pessimistic outlook in their published Summary of Economic Projections.Chart: Aggressive Hikes Taming InflationFord Financial Group on FacebookFord Financial Group on YouTubeQuestions?Find us at FordFG.comEmail us at info@fordfg.comMusic:Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source. Tracking ID: 1-05328334Ford Financial Group on FacebookFord Financial Group on YouTubeQuestions?Find us at FordFG.comEmail us at info@fordfg.comMusic:Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source.
Since 1978, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City has played host to central bankers, policymakers, academics and economists from around the world at its annual economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. This year’s symposium is titled “Reassessing Constraints on the Economy,” and it takes place from Thursday to Saturday and Fed Chair Jerome Powell headlines the event. We don’t yet know the topic of his keynote speech, but it's largely expected to give some additional clarity on how the Fed plans to keep raising short-term interest rates in an effort to get inflation under control.  Whether markets believe him is a different question.Chart: Market vs Fed Dot PlotChart: Easing Financial ConditionsFord Financial Group on FacebookFord Financial Group on YouTubeQuestions?Find us at FordFG.comEmail us at info@fordfg.comMusic:Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source. Tracking ID: 1-05317873Ford Financial Group on FacebookFord Financial Group on YouTubeQuestions?Find us at FordFG.comEmail us at info@fordfg.comMusic:Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source.
Like most people, you're likely to change jobs several times during your working life. And you'll likely have a 401(k) account through your former employer to deal with. This week, Brian talks about four options for what to do with an old 401(k) account. Ford Financial Group on FacebookFord Financial Group on YouTubeQuestions?Find us at FordFG.comEmail us at info@fordfg.comMusic:Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source. Tracking ID: Ford Financial Group on FacebookFord Financial Group on YouTubeQuestions?Find us at FordFG.comEmail us at info@fordfg.comMusic:Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source.
CLICK HERE to view the Midyear Outlook PresentationFord Financial Group on FacebookFord Financial Group on YouTubeQuestions?Find us at FordFG.comEmail us at info@fordfg.comMusic:Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source. This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change. References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.All data is provided as of June 30, 2022.Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities. All index data from FactSet.The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. This Research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.This Research material was prepared by Brian Ullmann and LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.The advisors of Ford Financial Group are Registered Representatives with and securities are offered through LPL Financial member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Ford Financial Group, a registered investment advisor, and a separate entity from LPL. Tracking 1-05292601Ford Financial Group on FacebookFord Financial Group on YouTubeQuestions?Find us at FordFG.comEmail us at info@fordfg.comMusic:Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source.
This week, Brian talks about how a historically weak quarter, six months, and year for stocks, bonds, and the two combined is now behind us. With stocks and bonds both showing weakness, not surprisingly a 60/40 balanced portfolio that combines the two has also shown weakness. ASince 1976 (the inception of the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index), the second quarter of 2022 was the fifth worst for the S&P 500 Index (“S&P 500”), the fourth weakest for the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index (“Agg”), but the worst quarter for a combination of the two, using a mix of 60% of the S&P 500 and 40% the Agg.Yet, stocks have historically bounced back strongly from big 2-quarter drops as we just experienced. In fact, after a more than 20% drop over 2 quarters (the S&P 500 Index fell 20.6% in the first half of 2022), the average gain the next 2 quarters has been 21.5%.Chart: Stocks After Big 2 Quarter DropsChart: July one of the strongest months over the last decadeFord Financial Group on FacebookFord Financial Group on YouTubeQuestions?Find us at FordFG.comEmail us at info@fordfg.comMusic:Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source. Tracking ID: 1-05300409Ford Financial Group on FacebookFord Financial Group on YouTubeQuestions?Find us at FordFG.comEmail us at info@fordfg.comMusic:Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source.
Last week the Federal Reserve announced its first 0.75% move since November 1994. The possibility of a 0.75% hike seemed unlikely even a week ago, but an upside surprise in the latest reading of Consumer Price Index (CPI) index inflation, released on Friday, June 10, changed everything as short-term yields soared and market-implied rate hike expectations climbed higher.This week Brian talks about how the Fed still has to remain credibly committed to bringing down inflation and how it's not an easy fit between what they may have to do to bring down inflation and the soft landing they’re trying to achieve. Bad Half ChartBad Quarter ChartBad Weeks ChartFord Financial Group on FacebookFord Financial Group on YouTubeQuestions?Find us at FordFG.comEmail us at info@fordfg.comMusic:Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source. Tracking ID: 1-05292508, 1-05295592Ford Financial Group on FacebookFord Financial Group on YouTubeQuestions?Find us at FordFG.comEmail us at info@fordfg.comMusic:Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source.
Bear Market Bonus!

Bear Market Bonus!

2022-06-1416:52

In this bonus episode, Brian discusses some of the questions asked of him in a recent interview relating to the stock market drop, bear markets, recessions, inflation, and interest rates.Check out the interview here:  CBS47 InterviewFord Financial Group on FacebookFord Financial Group on YouTubeQuestions?Find us at FordFG.comEmail us at info@fordfg.comMusic:Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source. Tracking ID:Ford Financial Group on FacebookFord Financial Group on YouTubeQuestions?Find us at FordFG.comEmail us at info@fordfg.comMusic:Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source.
Was that the Low?

Was that the Low?

2022-06-0318:59

Stocks rallied hard the prior week week, as the S&P 500 Index broke a seven week losing streak in resounding fashion; its 6.6% gain was the best since November 2020. That strong response from equities, following one of the worst starts to the year ever, has many investors questioning, “Was that the low?” While we are certainly open to that possibility, Brian takes a look at why the technical picture suggests volatility is likely to remain elevated in the near term.Sign up for Our June 2022 Webinar: REGISTER HEREChart: S&P ResistanceChart: Midterm Year BottomsFord Financial Group on FacebookFord Financial Group on YouTubeQuestions?Find us at FordFG.comEmail us at info@fordfg.comMusic:Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source. Tracking ID: 1-05287772, 1-05287772, 1-05289399Ford Financial Group on FacebookFord Financial Group on YouTubeQuestions?Find us at FordFG.comEmail us at info@fordfg.comMusic:Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source.
While the S&P 500 Index has not officially entered bear market territory, plenty of areas of the market have. This week, Brian talks about how the consumer discretionary sector is one of them with a 35% drop from its November 2021 high. And as we heard from some of the biggest retailers during earnings season, the outlook is only getting tougher as energy prices soar and supply chain problems persist.Sign up for Our June 2022 Webinar: REGISTER HEREChart: Worst Earnings Season for Consumer DiscretionaryChart: Consumer Discretionary Valuation Compared to S&P 500Ford Financial Group on FacebookFord Financial Group on YouTubeQuestions?Find us at FordFG.comEmail us at info@fordfg.comMusic:Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source. Tracking ID: 1-05285049Ford Financial Group on FacebookFord Financial Group on YouTubeQuestions?Find us at FordFG.comEmail us at info@fordfg.comMusic:Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source.
It’s been a tough year so far for a traditional “60/40” portfolio, a portfolio of 60% stocks and 40% bonds. Using the S&P 500 Index and the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index (“Agg”) to represent stocks and bonds, the traditional 60/40 is down 14.0% as of market close on May 11 on a total return basis, which would trail only 2008 as the worst year on record if that’s where we ended the year, but this week Brian explains how the 60/40 portfolio is diversified, and why this recent correction in stocks and bonds set up for a positive outlook for the future.Ford Financial Group on FacebookFord Financial Group on YouTubeQuestions?Find us at FordFG.comEmail us at info@fordfg.comMusic:Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source. Tracking ID: 1-05274315, 1-05277718Ford Financial Group on FacebookFord Financial Group on YouTubeQuestions?Find us at FordFG.comEmail us at info@fordfg.comMusic:Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source.
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