America‘s Commercial Real Estate Show

How do you stay brave in commercial real estate sales when the missiles start coming? Michael Bull, CCIM talks with F-16 fighter pilot Lt. Col. Waldo Waldman about fear, resilience, and commitment. Waldo flew 65 combat missions while battling claustrophobia and panic attacks that began with a scuba accident a year and a half into his flying career. He explains how he subjugated fear to purpose and his team, why preparation leads to confidence (not perfection), and how the "chair fly" drill of rehearsing every contingency in front of peers translates directly to listing presentations, tenant negotiations, and lender meetings. The conversation covers the Air Force Academy's 33% washout rate and the grit it builds, the "check six" principle of mutual support from his New York Times bestseller Never Fly Solo, why "I don't know, I'll find out" builds credibility, taking small assignments to win the long game, handling naysayers, and why commercial real estate professionals should train as constantly as athletes and pilots do. Waldo also previews his new book, Commit, Commit!, named for the radio call fighter pilots make when there is no turning back. In this episode: 00:00 Dodging the Missiles in Commercial Real Estate 01:40 The Scuba Accident Behind a Fighter Pilot's Panic Attacks 03:53 Flying Claustrophobic: Preparation Leads to Confidence 05:07 Subjugate Fear to Purpose and Your Team 06:58 Build Relationships Before the Missiles Come 08:00 From Cockpit to Sales: A 33% Washout Rate and Grit 09:44 Chair Flying: Practice Under Pressure With Peers 11:44 No Ejection Seat: Where "Commit, Commit" Comes From 13:07 Bravery in Negotiations: "I Don't Know" Is a Good Answer 14:10 Never Fly Solo: Check Six and Mutual Support 15:37 Honest Feedback: A Rubber Mallet, Not a Pitchfork 16:44 Lose the Battle to Win the War: Small Deals, Long Game 17:51 65 Combat Missions Without Being Fearless 19:13 Look Back to Leap Forward: Scars as Fuel 21:03 Envision the Win: The Batting Cage Mindset 22:07 Know Your Why Before You Fly 23:28 Reigniting the Fire Mid-Career 25:16 Handling Naysayers: Bet on You 26:56 Why CRE Pros Should Train Like Fighter Pilots 28:41 Make Your Friends Your Mentors Connect with Waldo Waldman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/waldowaldman/ Wingman Enterprises Website: https://yourwingman.com Contact Michael Bull: [email protected] 404-876-1640 x 101 Bull Realty, Inc https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/ For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com. America's Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors. TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com Bull Realty: Regional commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies. Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/ #CommercialRealEstate #CRE #CommercialRealEstateSales #CREBroker #SalesMindset #Resilience #Leadership #FighterPilot #NeverFlySolo #WaldoWaldman #MichaelBull #CREShow

Michael Bull, CCIM and PwC's Andrew Alperstein break down Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2027: the top 10 markets, top sectors, rates, distress and AI.   The 48th edition of the PwC and Urban Land Institute report draws on more than 500 interviews and close to 1,000 surveys of owners, lenders, developers and home builders across the US and Canada. This year's theme is "You Have to Work for It." With the 10-year Treasury near 5%, investors expect returns to come from operations and asset selection, since cap rate compression is off the table.   Andrew walks through the numbers. Only 50% of respondents rate the profitability outlook good or excellent, down from 55% last year and 65% two years ago, yet buy signals are among the strongest in recent years as properties trade below replacement cost and new supply sits near historic lows. He also covers 2019 and 2021 vintage debt maturities, how AI is changing office demand and analyst hiring, and why policy now drives where capital flows.   Senior housing leads the sector outlook, followed by retail and industrial. Dallas ranks as the No. 1 market for the third straight year, with Nashville, Miami, Raleigh-Durham and a resurgent San Francisco rounding out the top five.   In this episode: 00:00 Emerging Trends in Real Estate: 48 Years of PwC and ULI Research 01:07 How the Report Is Built: 500+ Interviews and 1,000 Surveys 03:20 Top Economic Issue: The 10-Year Treasury Near 5% 06:12 The Theme: "You Have to Work for It" 06:59 Inflation, Oil Prices and Real Estate as a Hedge 08:34 New Supply at Historic Lows Across Property Types 09:48 Below Replacement Cost: Sentiment at 50%, Buy Signals Up 11:15 Distress and Debt Maturities: 2019 and 2021 Vintage Loans 13:19 AI in CRE: Productivity, Talent and Data Center Demand 16:54 AI and Office Demand: CBD Growth vs. Suburban Back Office 19:48 Top Sectors: Senior Housing Leads the Growth Outlook 21:35 Retail, Office, Multifamily and Industrial Rankings 24:19 The Expanding Real Estate Universe: Marinas, Golf, Infrastructure 25:05 Transaction Volume: Selective and Submarket Specific 27:26 Top 10 Markets: Dallas Is No. 1 for the Third Year 29:28 San Francisco Jumps to No. 5, Plus Manhattan and Jersey City 31:36 Policy's Growing Impact on Where Capital Flows 33:55 Demographics: Aging Boomers and 18-Year-Olds Peaking 35:28 Final Takeaway Connect with Andrew Alperstein: https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrew-alperstein-ab0a822/ PwC Website: https://www.pwc.com   Connect with Michael Bull & The Show: Michael Bull, CCIM Bull Realty, Inc https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/   For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com.   America's Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors.   TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com   Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com   Bull Realty: Regional commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies. Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com   Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/   #CommercialRealEstate #CRE #EmergingTrends #RealEstateInvesting #ULI #PwC #SeniorHousing #RealEstateMarkets #InterestRates #CREShow

Commercial real estate values fell 20% without a recession, a first in US history. Michael Bull, CCIM and AEW's Mike Acton explain what comes next. Mike Acton, CFA, Head of Research & Strategy, North America at AEW Capital Management, has studied real estate cycles at AEW since 1990. He explains why the US is at the very beginning of the next up cycle in property values, why returns over the next year will come almost entirely from income, and why scarce new construction could give this recovery a longer runway: lower IRRs, but higher equity multiples over the hold. The conversation covers commercial real estate transaction volume returning to a 2018 and 2019 pace, how oil prices and a 10-year Treasury near 5% shape the interest rate outlook, reshoring and foreign capital flowing into US property, and why rising stock values are pushing more institutional dollars into real estate allocations. Mike also walks through the sectors AEW likes most. Senior housing leads the list as the first baby boomers turn 80, and retail is recovering after more than 10 years with almost no new construction. He also explains why AEW is waiting on data centers, and what the late 1990s teach investors about holding real estate through a technology boom. In this episode: 00:00 Where Commercial Real Estate Stands in the Cycle 01:16 Values Fell 20% Without a Recession: A First in US History 03:01 Returns Ahead Come From Income, Not Appreciation 04:00 The Buying Window: Lower IRR, Higher Multiple 05:40 Transaction Volume Back to a 2019 Pace 06:45 Oil Prices, Inflation, and a 5% 10-Year Treasury 08:12 Reshoring, Foreign Capital, and US Property 10:20 Institutional Allocations: Same Percentage, More Dollars 11:12 Core vs. Opportunistic: Capital Returns to Core 12:04 Senior Housing: Baby Boomers Turning 80 15:08 Retail's Recovery After a Decade of No New Supply 16:09 Office, CapEx, and Old-Fashioned Real Estate Skill 17:39 Final Takeaway: What the Dot-Com Era Teaches Investors 19:25 Data Centers and the Obsolescence Risk Connect with Mike Acton: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-acton-38b26765/ AEW Capital Management Website: https://www.aew.com Connect with Michael Bull & The Show Michael Bull, CCIM Bull Realty, Inc https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/ For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com. America's Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors. TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com Bull Realty: Regional commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies. Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/ #CommercialRealEstate #CRE #RealEstateInvesting #CREForecast #SeniorHousing #RetailRealEstate #DataCenters #InterestRates #InstitutionalInvesting #AEW #MichaelBull #CREShow

Holiday retail sales are forecast to grow 4.3% to 4.9% while retail space stays scarce. ICSC CEO Tom McGee joins Michael Bull, CCIM to explain why.   Retail sales have more than doubled since the global financial crisis, yet very little new retail space has been built. The result is historically high occupancy across regional malls, open-air centers, and standalone retail, with retailers competing for well-positioned space. Tom breaks down ICSC's fourth quarter forecast of $1.7 trillion in retail sales, why the top 10% of earners account for 50% of all consumer spending, and why the other 90% are watching prices closely.   The conversation covers the formats with the most momentum (grocery-anchored and suburban open-air centers), what happens to dark drugstores, and findings from ICSC's Shopping in the Age of AI report with McKinsey on convenience-oriented and discovery-oriented stores. Tom explains why ICSC events are built for dealmaking, including 4,000 participants at ICSC+PROPTECH in Las Vegas, and Michael shares how an AI-drafted markup of a listing agreement nearly derailed an $11 million listing.   In this episode: 00:00  Retail Outlook: Gas Prices, Tariffs, and Inflation 01:10  Retail Sales Growth and a Strong Job Market 03:30  Holiday Forecast: $1.7 Trillion, 4.3% to 4.9% Growth 05:18  Top 10% of Earners Drive 50% of Consumer Spending 06:20  Stock Market, Home Equity, and the Wealth Effect 06:59  Gas Prices and Discretionary Spending 07:50  Shopping in the Age of AI: Convenience vs. Discovery Stores 10:53  ICSC Southeast: Dealmaking in Atlanta 12:46  ICSC Las Vegas and 4,000 at ICSC+PROPTECH 14:32  Who's Expanding: Discount, Grocery-Anchored, Open-Air 16:20  Dark Drugstores: Why Vacant Retail Gets Snapped Up 18:10  Retail Tips: Merchandising, Pricing, Customer Service 20:09  Chick-fil-A Outparcels and Retail as Social Space 21:49  AI-Lawyered Leases and Listing Agreements 24:12  Final Takeaway: A Resilient Consumer and Warning Signs   Connect with Tom McGee: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tommcgee2/ ICSC Website: https://www.icsc.com   Connect with Michael Bull & The Show: Michael Bull, CCIM Bull Realty, Inc https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/   For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com.   America's Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors.   TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com   Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com   Bull Realty: Regional commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies. Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com   Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/   #RetailRealEstate #CommercialRealEstate #CRE #ICSC #ShoppingCenters #HolidaySales #RetailSales #ConsumerSpending #RetailAI #MichaelBull #CREShow

Where are foreign investors putting capital in US commercial real estate? Michael Bull, CCIM asks Gunnar Branson, CEO of AFIRE, what the mid-year Pulse shows.   Gunnar Branson leads AFIRE, the Association of Foreign Investors in Real Estate, whose members are institutional investors from 24 countries. Twice a year AFIRE surveys them on their US allocations, risks, and opportunities. This year's headline is a turn toward infrastructure and energy. Data centers are pulling institutional capital, and for the first time a majority of respondents say energy availability and cost shape where they invest.   On property types, industrial still tops the wish list and multifamily follows, but office has climbed to number 3. Gunnar explains why New York has almost no Class A office space available, why retail's comeback is the model for office, and why mixed-use, 24/7 neighborhoods are winning tenants. Michael shares why he calls office the buy of the decade, with a 200,000 square foot tower coming to market at about $64 a foot.   The conversation also covers the US economy (90% of respondents see politics as a negative force on investment, while 94% say this is a time for long-term investing), Japanese capital and the weak yen, why nearly half of the world's institutional quality real estate sits in the US, the housing affordability gap, build-to-rent and manufactured housing, household financial stress, tariffs and immigrant labor, and why location still matters.   In this episode: 00:00  Introduction: how foreign investors view the US 01:25  The AFIRE Pulse: institutional investors from 24 countries 02:22  From real estate to infrastructure: data centers lead 04:56  Generational capital and the long-term US view 05:28  Europe and the Middle East: a pause in new investment 06:11  Data centers: top opportunity and top risk 07:17  Office climbs to #3 behind industrial and multifamily 09:15  Office as the buy of the decade: lessons from retail 11:37  Buying office at $64 a foot: the low-basis play 12:27  US economy: strong growth, 90% see politics as a negative 14:52  Japanese capital, the yen, and long-term thinking 15:42  Why the US wins: nearly half of institutional real estate 18:09  The housing shortage and affordability 19:07  Build-to-rent, single family rentals, and manufactured housing 24:02  Household stress: 19% now at the breaking point 25:19  The biggest headline: energy infrastructure 27:44  Beyond the capital stack: new players in real estate 29:07  Tariffs, reshoring, and immigrant labor costs 31:48  Visas, universities, and where capital follows 33:35  Location, location: why investors favor vibrant cities   Connect with Gunnar Branson: https://www.linkedin.com/in/gunnarbranson/ AFIRE Website: https://www.afire.org/   Connect with Michael Bull & The Show: Michael Bull, CCIM Bull Realty, Inc https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/   For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com.   America's Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors.   TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com   Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com   Bull Realty: Regional commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies. Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com   Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/   #CommercialRealEstate #CRE #ForeignInvestment #RealEstateInvesting #AFIRE #DataCenters #Infrastructure #OfficeMarket #Multifamily #IndustrialRealEstate #AffordableHousing #CREShow