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The only oil swaps market specific podcast is back. Join Onyx Capital Group CEO, Greg Newman, and a plethora of industry guests as they dig down each week into the issues that affect the market. Are you paying attention?
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All of last week, Brent futures were comfortably trading at $85/bbl. Now (at time of recording), they're trading around $82.50/bbl. There is a definite bearish turn to the rangebound wave we were in last week. WTI has seen more bullish interest, and it's just entered negative handles in CTA data. WTI also sold off aggressively on 19th July from $81/bbl to $78/bbl. Volatility has also risen significantly for both Brent and WTI - especially in comparison to low volatility all year. O...
Although the market and the narrative want to be bullish, there's no impetus for it to be there. It's a weak week in Brent futures, after being within in touching distance of $88/bbl. We've seen both long and short prod/merc in Brent 200mb in 2 weeks in Sep 0I. The team explains why bearish economic data from China is adding to the pressure of oil prices. Greg, James, Martha and Vincent discuss Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia having to submit compensation plans for exceeding quotas in 2024....
Brent futures climbed towards $88 before settling around $85.50. Money managers increased their long positions in Brent for the third consecutive week, indicating bullish sentimentEuropean M1 refinery margins softened in the week but remained profitable at $6.40/bbl. Products saw weakness across the barrel but the upcoming hurricane season and potential disruption to US infrastructure raise questions about short-term price movements.Dreadful US data, including a contraction in manufacturing a...
Brent crude prices have had a strong week, continuing to rally at $87/bbl. The latest CFTC data indicates that the market has become balanced and neutral in positioning. This presents an opportunity for bullish investors to take action, with legacy positions and new entrants supporting this trend.However, macroeconomic news doesn't fully support this bullish outlook. Economic data from China and the US is weak, with China's manufacturing sector contracting for the second consecutive month and...
Group Chief Investment Officer and Onyx Co-Founder Omar Kayaam joins Group Chief Executive Officer Greg Newman to reflect on how they've scaled the business over the last year.They discuss the big moves that have propelled the business, including hiring experts, developing the technology arm of Onyx, buying out investors, expanding to new offices, and more. Eight years after founding the company, Omar and Greg address how they finally found the right team to navigate the evolving industry and...
We saw extremely rangebound prices in crude this week, with the September Brent futures contract hovering between $84/bbl and $85/bbl.The team discuss the nature of the oil market, what's going on with Dated Brent, volatility, US jet fuel demand, and the upcoming US election debate. Not to mention, Jorge "The Regulator" weighs in on the current state of benchmarks and conspiracy theories.Refinery margins have been relatively rangebound, although a weakened crude flat price supported margins t...
We saw a very strong performance in crudethis week, with Brent futures already up to $84/bbl. The team discuss market dynamics, emphasizing the shift from deep contango to backwardation in crude structure. After a recent positional reset, the market appears more balanced, with summer demand looking healthy.The team go on to discuss the history of repricing in the oil markets, with Greg noting that big market moves often come from unexpected events. For example: recession expectations in the p...
Brent is back in the $80’s this week after a huge rebound and initial sell-off post-OPEC meeting. Crude flat prices are back to where we were pre-OPEC meeting, as the August contract fell to lows of $77/bbl before climbing all the way back up to $82/bbl this morning.The M1 refinery margins in Europe continue to weaken this week by nearly $0.35/bbl; however, the same in Asia climbed by $0.55/bbl this week. Asian margins appear to be picking up compared to how low they were at the end of May. T...
Brent Futures have been extremely bearish following US markets open, dropping to $77/bbl Monday morning. It’s all about OPEC, as the meeting over the weekend saw existing voluntary cuts extended into September 2024. This move hinted at OPEC's willingness to bring back barrels to the market. However, doubts remain about compliance from certain members and future global demand growth.Refinery margins are overall weak, with low US gasoline demand and overall US weakness permeating the European m...
Brent Futures have been volatile and rangebound this week, dropping to around $81/bbl and supported again over $84/bbl. With the OPEC meeting next week (and being held online), there's been conversation that Russia has overproduced oil output, but will be correcting lower after not adhering to the April quota due to over production. This audit will be used to update production baselines. Biden announced he was releasing a million barrels of gasoline from the northeast gasoline supply re...
Crude futures climbed over the week, surpassing $84/bbl on Monday morning, which was the first weekly gain in 3 weeks.Heating oil and gas oil were the most negative in the refinery margin change this week. We saw strength come back into EBOB and Gasoil which has helped the products we look at in the swaps market in Europe see greater strength.James says the macro news last week was the US CPI data, which is falling again. There was also weaker than expected retail sales and industrial product...
If you would like to access our free comprehensive monthly oil report as mentioned in the podcast, click here: https://www.onyxhub.co/dashboards/oil-market-report-may/In last week's podcast, we had started to see pressure in the crude futures contracts, and we've slid to a new low of this cycle today at $82.30/bbl.Refinery margins were the major reason for bullish Brent over the past few months, however now it’s the major reason market sentiment has flipped. Margins have strengthened sl...
Brent futures opened at $87.50 per barrel, seeing a $1 decrease due to promising ceasefire negotiations, with a Hamas delegate heading to Cairo on Monday. The market is rather sanguine on geopolitical risk, and has been de-risking over the past week, with open interest in ETFs seeing a substantial decline. Looking to the refinery margin changes, the prompt European margin increased slightly over the week as stronger products outweighed stronger crude. There was notable strength observed ...
Looking at the past week, the oil market was too long and had to de-risk.Brent Futures saw a week of stagnation and mean reversion, $90/bbl oil was very short lived and sell-off was driven by speculative positioning cycles as market participants took off length amid a waning geopolitical premium. Looking to the refinery margin change, Dated Brent was weaker than last week and is now seeing a little bit of support, whilst gasoil continued to weaken. Martha notes the difference between the stra...
Off the back of another tense week with the recent attacks by Iran on Israel, Greg, Jorge, James and Martha discuss the impact (or, lack thereof) the event had on oil prices. As a bonus for this episode, Jorge and Martha will provide a trade idea each! There was a muted response for Brent futures, with prices oscillating around $90/bbl, opening on Monday at $90/bbl and closing at $90.50/bbl. Looking at the CFTC report, the market is quite long - especially by managed by money players.The...
Prices were around $89/bbl last week, but since then there's been a noticeable uptick - not quite reaching $92/bbl and oscillating around $90/bbl since. Refinery margins have weakened, with refined products struggling - with the exception of gasoline. Gasoil is extremely weak, with poor distillate performance in all regions. EBOB has seen greater strength with the market keen to buy into last week's weakness. Looking to our macro news segment, James unpacks the latest headlines shaking u...
Brent Futures have made a notable climb since last week, hitting $89/bbl on Tuesday morning. It's crucial to analyse the impact of recent developments on oil demand. Notably, both China and the USA have seen expansions in manufacturing activity, marking significant milestones. What has been the impact of headlines regarding tighter supply and the possible contagion of geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East?Examining the refinery margin, we observed a supportive trend in the Dated market. How...
Brent futures surged to $87.70 last week, only to encounter resistance and profit-taking flows, settling this week at a sturdy $85-86/bbl range. Macroeconomic factors and persistent supply concerns are pivotal in sustaining these levels.Refinery margins face widespread pressure across regions, while the gasoil market sentiment remains subdued amidst spring demand and increased freight, notably from the Middle East to Europe and Asia. Yet, amidst these challenges, there's a glimmer of hope for...
In another episode of our Onyx Leadership series, Group CEO Greg Newman is joined by Co-Head of Light Ends, Jasper Bird.Jasper and Greg shed light on the realities of being a Trader, how egos can play a part in trading, and uncover the inner workings of a trader's mentality.They delve into the highs and lows of trading and the challenges of maintaining social and entertainment balance as you age in the industry.With over 6 years of experience at Onyx Capital Group, Jasper opens up about his j...
With Group CEO Greg Newman abroad, Light Ends Direct Trader James Todd steps up to host World of Oil Derivatives for another market update episode. Since last week, Brent Futures price rallied from sub $83/bbl this week to over $87.50/bbl yesterday. The breakout from its previous range came on the back of a flurry of bullish headlines - including drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, draws in both crude and gasoline inventories in the US, and positive Chinese economic data. L...
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