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The NZ Property Market Podcast
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The NZ Property Market Podcast

Author: CoreLogic NZ

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Brought to you by CoreLogic and produced by Agents TV. Each week co-hosts Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson will bring you all the latest news, stats and insight to keep you up to date with everything to do with the NZ residential property market. Including sales volumes, house price indices, buyer activity, interest rates, loan-to-value ratio restrictions and all of the macro economic factors that influence our largest asset class. Contact us on twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL
59 Episodes
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With Nick away on leave in Northland, Kelvin takes up the reins and outlines how the Early Market Indicators still point to a tight supply/demand balance over the next few weeks and months. Meanwhile, the latest net migration figures have remained low and slow, and perhaps a bit ‘boring’ – certainly, other factors such as low mortgage rates and FOMO are more important for the property market right now. Kelvin also discusses how CPI inflation was well-contained in Q4 2020 and that expectations for the official cash rate to go below zero have been pedalled back. The prospect of higher interest rates is still some way off, but does need to be kept in mind.It’s also good to see CoreLogic data powering up Stuff’s Affordability Dashboard, but unfortunately for aspiring first home buyers, raising the deposit is still difficult.Our Queenstown Pulse article also got some coverage last week, and outlines how the rebound in that part of the country is to do with supply & demand, and perhaps some ‘bargain hunting’ too.Finally, note that the LVR consulation is now closed, so Kelvin discusses some of the relevant issues.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz 
With REINZ releasing their sales statistics for December, Nick runs through the figures on sales volumes as well as the headline index results.Kelvin then delves into the latest economic releases, including strong jobs data, increasing rental figures and yet more dwellings being consented.This provides the back-drop for a discussion on the health of the economy, the state of the rental market (amid upcoming tenancy law changes) and potential for Government intervention.Nick also mentions the Stuff article covering the latest Buyer Classification data, showing continued strength in mortgaged investor activity.And as per usual a scan over the latest CoreLogic early market indicators provides insight into the short term health of both inventory and demand.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz
After a short summer break Nick and Kelvin are back on deck to chat about the year ahead in the property market. The December CoreLogic House Price Index first rounds out the year though, with growth the order of the day. 6.1% growth over the final quarter of the year brings sustainability and affordability to the fore so Nick takes a look at the data to reveal what's happening from an affordability perspective.Kelvin provides a summary of economic data release both recent and upcoming, with the NZ Activity Index (lead indicator for GDP) of most interest this Friday.Nick then considers where to next for the loan-to-value ratio (LVR) restrictions, given the CoreLogic Buyer Classification series is showing investor activity at similar levels to the last time the Reserve Bank moved to the 40% deposit requirement for investors (2016).And finally, a quick look over the CoreLogic early market indicators to see how activity in the new year has begun.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz
In a bumper final episode of the year, number 55, Nick and Kelvin look back at the year that was 2020 in the property market. To kick things of this is done through the lens of the CoreLogic 'best of the best' report, released last week, before delving into a few highlights of the year.A shorter look back at the last week of data and media coverage highlights Stuff's new affordability dashboard, complete with CoreLogic first home buyer data, and Kelvin recounts the strong GDP figures for Q3 as well as improving results from the latest ANZ confidence surveys.Nick then has to reiterate his regular warning around using median sales prices to assess market performance after a few recent media stories did exactly that.And finally, all signs, including CoreLogic early market indicators, point to much of the same strength occurring in 2021.Corelogic final video of the year is here.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz
In episode 54 Nick and Kelvin discuss the latest correspondence between the RBNZ and the Minister of Finance. There's plenty to cover, including debt-to-income restrictions (a week after Kelvin wrote specifically about them) and other options to extend the RBNZ's mandate.Sticking with the RBNZ, they're consulting on LVR re-introduction and the direct funding for lending programme is underway.Meanwhile the Prime Minister has essentially stated that 'sustained moderation' remains the Government's goal when it comes to house prices, as people 'expect' the value of their most valuable asset to keep rising. Jenée Tibshraeny wrote an excellent piece on interest.co.nz about the Government's position.There's also the latest buyer classification data, REINZ' latest release, the NZAC for November, new 'land banker' data and even more! It's a busy end to the year.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz
In episode 53 Nick covers off the latest CoreLogic House Price Index for November, as well as a few stats illustrating the affordability challenges at the moment.Kelvin then gives an overview of DTIs (debt-to-income ratios) which have come back into the RBNZ's lingo again.There's also a few solid economic release to cover, a seasonal drop away in listing and valuations activity and a lot to look forward to over the next week.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz
In episode 52 Nick and Kelvin weigh into what is becoming a very heated political topic right now - who is to 'blame' for the runaway growth in the NZ property market, and who needs to do what about it?The CoreLogic Pain & Gain report also provides yet more evidence of the strong market and is available here. And all signs from the CoreLogic Early Market Indicators reporting point to current trends to continue into and out the other side of the holiday break. Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz
In episode 51 Nick and Kelvin discuss the release and results of the hugely popular first home buyer (FHB) report which showed how active FHBs have been and what part of the market they've been entering. Full report available here.The RBNZ also released some revealing data with the total value of mortgages on deferral programme diminishing throughout October to significantly reduce the risk the proposed end of the scheme presents. And a recap on the early market indicators reveals recent short term trends are likely to persist through the end of the year with agent appraisals slowing and bank valuations increasing.The monthly video is available here. Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz
In episode 50 Nick and Kelvin 'raise the microphone' to acknowledge the half century milestone and spend a decent amount of time reviewing a heck of a week for the Reserve Bank.There's also plenty of October data to chew over - including the CoreLogic Buyer Classification series, NZ Activity Index and REINZ sales data.And in a special treat for the 50th ep, Kelvin delves into the details of the CoreLogic First Home Buyers report ahead of the report going to the media!Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz
In Episode 49 (with shorter intro), there are a few higher profile news stories to chat about, starting with whether or not first home buyers are worsening the housing crisis. But there were also a few 'records' being touted that may not have been as significant as they sound.Kelvin then rounds up the economic data releases from last week, including building consents and unemployment figures, before looking ahead to an intriguing release from the RBNZ with their Monetary Policy Statement at Wed 2pm.And finally a thanks to Roz for her correspondence about Queenstown!Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz
In Episode 48, Nick kicks the pod off by delving into the latest CoreLogic House Price Index data for October. Values have accelerated off the back of continually strong demand and a lack of supply, which are also illustrated by the latest RBNZ lending stats.The labour market continues to weather the COVID storm well, as Stats NZ report from their 'jobs filled' data. Kelvin provides the detail on this as well as ANZ's latest confidence surveys, which are also leaning towards the positive.There's also foreign buyer stats, and a quick chat about the uplift in early market indicators for both supply and demand.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz
In Episode 47, there's plenty of economic data to chew over, starting with the NZ Activity Index (NZAC). This is the more timely measure of economic activity, essentially pre-empting the official GDP figures. September's result was surprisingly strong and ends Q3 on a solid note.There was also an update to the population growth figures for every TA (city/town) across the country, so Kelvin provides an overview of the areas with the greatest, and not-so-greatest increases.Then as per usual Nick updates us on what the early market indicators are telling us about immediate property supply and demand, before getting Kelvin to get his crystal ball out for the latest mortgage lending stats.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz
In Episode 46, Nick and Kelvin discuss the election result from the weekend and potential implications for the property market.Kelvin then goes over the latest migration data, and provides clarity on the strength or otherwise of NZ citizens on the overall migration picture. There's also the latest sales numbers for September following the REINZ data release and insight on the strength of mortgage demand through the banks.The latest monthly video is now live at https://youtu.be/PTXV8jVASa0.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz
In Episode 45, Nick is joined by Rupert Gough, CEO and founder of Mortgage Lab and author of 'The Successful First Home Buyer' book.Rupert began working in the mortgage advice industry in 2011 and, after moving to Auckland in 2014, started The Mortgage Lab in early 2017. He talks to Nick about how the market has reacted to the craziness of 2020 and talks through what's happening from a finance assessment point of view through the banks.Rupert has great advice for first home buyers and investors alike and provides great insight into the mortgage advisor world. Check out all CoreLogic Research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news, and get in touch on twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz.Rupert can be contacted at rupertg@mortgagelab.co.nz  
In Episode 44, Nick and Kelvin discuss the swathes of data which reflect the recent strength of the market. This includes results from the REINZ/Tony Alexander survey of agents, MBIE rental bond data and the preliminary ANZ Business Confidence data for October.There's also a bit of housing policy to consider as the National Party released more details of their plans, if they're successful at the election this week.Plus of course there's a bit of discussion on the All Blacks' drawn Bledisloe Cup test which Nick and his family attended!Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz
In Episode 43, Nick and Kelvin pore over the latest CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) data, which in general has shown a surprisingly strong property market. https://www.corelogic.co.nz/news/property-market-enters-spring There are a number of recent economic releases which help understand some of the context for that strength so Kelvin details those which prompts a bit of a broader discussion on the overall state of the market.Add to this Kelvin's recent article analysing Auckland, and a quick look at the early market indicators report and it's another bumper pod you don't want to miss. https://www.corelogic.co.nz/news/hows-aucklands-property-market-travellingCheck out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz
In Episode 42, Kelvin delves into the latest releases from the RBNZ, namely the Monetary Policy Review (where the Bank reviews the OCR and Quantitative Easing Programme) and the lending stats for August.We also have the latest credit card spend stats and the broader measure of economic activity, the NZ Activity Index for August to mull over. Nick also provides the latest from the CoreLogic early property market indicators, with both appraisals generated and valuations ordered recently playing a bit of catch-up.Kelvin was busy with media last week too, including speaking with Jenée Tibshraeny from interest.co.nz about the effectiveness of the brightline test. Full article is here https://www.interest.co.nz/property/107219/efficacy-using-tax-deter-property-speculation-air-meanwhile-national-campaigns Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz
In Episode 41, Kelvin gives his take on the latest record breaking GDP data for Q2, the key question being is it really relevant anymore, given the more reactive NZ Activity Index (August data out this Friday).The Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU) was released last week so the guys discuss what it is and how it is relevant for the property market.And the CoreLogic Buyer Classification stats for August show mortgaged investors and first home buyers remain a key presence in the current market, ahead of RBNZ mortgage lending figures coming out this week.Then, looking ahead, Kelvin is keenly awaiting the latest RBNZ review of the OCR and QE programme, while the monthly video is now live. https://youtu.be/wO9ij273AMo Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz
In Episode 40, Nick kicks off with recognition of Te Wiki o te Reo Māori (Māori Language Week), before a quick discussion on Kelvin's weekend away embracing everything Taupō has to offer (while always scoping economic health and potential impacts on the property market!) Agent activity is back to early August levels (before the latest restrictions were imposed) but the recent drop has already been noted in reduced for-sale listings coming to market at a time when we should've seen a lift for spring.Kelvin then reviews ANZ's latest business confidence survey as the bank says things 'could be worse', and with the wage subsidy about to end we'll see if that's the case very soon. There's also MBIE data showing rents easing, net migration continuing to fall and REINZ reporting strong sales volumes, though Nick has a word of warning around some earlier comparisons to 2019 volumes being a little selective.The latest mapping the market interactive is live here https://www.corelogic.co.nz/mapping-marketCheck out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz
In Episode 39, Nick provides an update to previously reported CMA data as the recent drop was overstated, though the message of upcoming listings being restrained remains true.Valuations being ordered keep holding up too, so the recent trend of values remaining firm will likely continue. Kelvin also wraps up the latest macro-economic data releases in between discussion around RBNZ's latest commentary and the extension of the current alert level restrictions.If you missed last week's big releases, links for each are below:https://www.corelogic.co.nz/news/corelogic-house-price-index-aug-2020https://www.corelogic.co.nz/news/new-corelogic-housing-affordability-report-finds-boost-falling-interest-ratesMore info about the HPI:https://www.corelogic.co.nz/corelogic-house-price-indexCheck out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz
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Comments (1)

Andy Murph

turn off your notifications please

Sep 24th
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