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Marcus Today

Author: Marcus Padley

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Daily Market CommentaryDisclaimer: The information contained in these podcasts is general in nature. It does not take into account your personal financial situation, needs or objectives. Nor does it take into account the financial needs of any specific person. You should consider your own personal financial situation and needs or seek financial advice before making any decisions based on this information.
318 Episodes
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It may not be over in society but the stock market looks six months ahead. The next headlines are going to be about every economy restarting, lockdowns ending, getting back to work and before long sports, bars and restaurants getting back to business. Next you will find yourself at the airport flying to that international holiday resort for that holiday you deserve (with 23m of your closest mates) and those roving retirees are going to be  rushing to book cruises at huge discounts that will not last. they say "Buy the dips". We're in the middle of one. Now all we have to do is time it. In today's strategy piece we look at timing this moment (not yet), and which stocks are the most geared to it. 
On the Couch with Henry this week is Kerry Stevenson -  Kerry is the founder of the Gold and Alternative Investments Conference as well as her new you tube channel of the same name. Kerry is passionate about helping people understand the gold and precious metals sector as well as looking at other alternative investments. She emphasises that she is not a qualified financial planner rather someone who is always continuing to learn from the best. You can download her ebook on gold here: https://www.goldevent.com.au/You can subscribe to her youtube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/c/GoldandAlternativeInvestments
Assistant Fund Manager Ben O’Leary sitting in the chair of Marcus Padley once again. Another big rise in cases and deaths heading north again in the US but the market doesn’t seem to care. A host of negative stock headlines give us a warning of things to come heading into results season, there will be plenty of landmines about but we remain on the hunt for income. Plus Marcus takes a look at “The Afterpay Bubble” on Livewire.
This week on the Couch Henry hosts a very topical analyst from Shaw & Partners - Jonathon Higgins who covers the Consumer Discretionary and Information Technology sector which includes the very topical Buy Now Pay Later sector as well as stocks exposed to Cloud Computing. Jonathon joined Shaw and Partners in July 2017 as an Analyst in the Small-Cap team. Jonathon previously worked as an equities research analyst at Bell Potter Securities for 2 years in both a research and research dealing role, covering industrial and technology focused companies. Jonathon holds a Bachelor of Science (Civil Systems) from the University of Melbourne and a Master of Commerce (Finance) from RMIT University.Enjoy!
Co-Portfolio Manager Ben O'Leary back in the chair today. We are past the halfway mark of US results season and a record number of the companies that have reported have beat profit estimates. This despite the most recent financial period expected to be the slowest profit period since the GFC. Big tech is leading the way in the US, but what does it mean for our results season which starts to heat up next week? 
We have launched the MARCUS TODAY ETF PORTFOLIO which is a tool to effect our ambition to deliver "Step Performance" to those who want a low cost, low risk, low volatility, low vigilance, low admin, long-term compounding investment in the average return. Then if we can “Add Brains” by timing the market, as we have been over the last couple of years, we hope to significantly improve upon the average accumulation index return by missing the worst bits of the market whilst being invested in the best bits. Using the timing we have effected in our SMAs ($83m of real money), the portfolio would be up 57.38% since inception on 31/10/2018. By comparison the ASX 300 Accumulation is up 12.66% and the ASX 200 up 5.30%. The portfolio return since inception is a whopping 27.89% per annum compared to the ASX 300 Accumulation index up 6.68% pa and the ASX 200 up 2.8% pa. Follow the portfolio in the Marcus Today newsletter. 
After last week’s technology SNAFU and the end of the reporting season Henry is on the virtual couch again with stock broker Adam Dawes from Shaw and Partners talking through reporting season, the winners and losers, their top picks in the small-cap space for the next quarter and what just happened in the technology sector. 
With results season done and dusted and most of the main ex-dividend dates behind us, we have a couple of weeks to catch our breath before AGM season hits its straps. Plenty on the economic calendar but the focus this week remains on deciphering whether the unfolding rotation away from the tech sector is a significant market pivot point or simply a speed bump that could provide a buying opportunity. Plus a look at the MQG downgrade this morning. 
You cannot keep a good man down and this weekend in a departure from the usual Financial Education we indulge Henry as he indulges you with a chat on the Couch with Rock Legend Paul Christie from Mondo Rock. I could explain why, what its about and disclaim any advice but there is none, I don't know why and I suggest you just sit back and you'll find out what its about - Enjoy!
Vlado Bosanac the CEO has been kind enough to spend an hour with Henry chatting about the opportunities of this $100m ASX listed company that is starting to make waves. In fact, Vlado is proof of its impact having ‘dechunked’ during CV19 and losing 14kg with the help of the new technology. An unexpected consequence of using the technology. Vlado speaks to us from Perth. He is the CEO at Myfiziq Limited & Body Composition Technologies - Accurate body measurements from your phone. (ASX: MYQ) - Enjoy! 
This week Henry is on the virtual couch with author and founder of ‘Shareplicity’, Danielle Ecuyer. Danielle has had a long career in broking having worked for some of the big names in investment banks both here in Australia and London. She has recently written a book ‘Shareplicity’ which aims to make share investing as simple as possible. Danielle brings a no-nonsense approach to the business of investing on the stock market and offers some great advice for both beginners and experienced investors alike. We are all learning and all on a journey. It never ends. Investing truly is a work in progress. Click here to go to Danielle's website and buy her book. Meanwhile - Enjoy!
On the Couch with Henry this week are Ellerston Capital Australian Micro Cap Fund Managers David Keelan and Alexandra Clarke. The Fund has returned 24.10% pa since inception on May 1st 2017 - Click Here for the latest performance report. The Fund is an actively managed portfolio of Australian listed smaller company securities. The fund is made up of a portfolio of between 30 – 60 Micro Cap stocks.  The Fund invests across a number of sectors, and offers access to higher growth companies not widely known. The investment team employ a fundamental, bottom up approach to stock selection and combine that with a focus on risk management when constructing the portfolio aiming to outperform the S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries Accumulation Index over a rolling three year investment horizon.David Keelan has been with Ellerston since 2008 - David has 13 years experience as an Investment Analyst and prior to joining Ellerston, David worked for UISL/Old Mutual in the UK for a period of 4 years in a Senior Dealing role. David graduated from Liverpool John Moore’s University with a BSc. Hons. in Technology Management in 2004. Alexandra Clarke joined Ellerston Capital as a Senior Analyst in 2017 and has 11 years of financial market experience.  Prior to joining Ellerston, Alexandra worked as a lead analyst at Morgans. Alexandra graduated from Queensland University of Technology with a Bachelor of Laws and a Bachelor of Business majoring in Banking & Finance in 2007. She also holds a Graduate Diploma in Applied Finance from Finsia. Marcus Today Stock Market Newsletter
In ‘On the Couch’ this week, Henry talks to serial technology entrepreneur and clean energy advocate, Eytan Lenko from Beyond Zero Emissions. Eytan talks us through his ‘million jobs’ plan for Australia, his thoughts on hydrogen and alternative clean energy sources and what sectors should do well as the global economy de-carbonises. Eytan Lenko is a founder of Outware, one of Australia’s most awarded and fastest growing technology companies.  He has extensive technical, commercial and leadership expertise having grown Outware from 3 co-founders to a team of over 250 based in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane. Outware was successfully acquired by Melbourne IT in 2017. Eytan has an engineering background and has deep knowledge around the current state of our energy transition. He is passionate about the exceptional opportunities that we have to transform our economy in response to climate change.  Eytan's Twitter feed here
It was a big weekend for Victorians with the next stage of  ‘reopening’ announced yesterday, but the heat stays on Premier Dan as a joint statement from Scott Morrison, Josh Frydenberg and Greg Hunt declares that each day of lockdown comes at a heavy cost to mental health and the expense of 1000 jobs.  The week ahead is all about AGM’s, production reports and a couple of speeches from RBA members. 
On the Couch this week sees us head over the ditch to talk to two Kiwi fund managers, Mark Devcich and Chris Bainbridge from Pie Funds. Mark and Chris run a $130m Emerging growth fund focusing on companies below a $150m market cap and concentrated mainly on the ASX. The Emerging Fund is now close ended with a 24.64% annualised performance since inception. In the podcast, we talk two stocks that the team are recommending, the ones that got away and how to value small caps and the all-important four Ps.Mark is the CIO and Portfolio Manager with over 10 years at Pie having worked previously for PWC and is a shareholder of Pie Funds. Chris is responsible for Australian Equities and a Portfolio Manager. Chris is a CFA and a shareholder of Pie Funds. 
CLICK HERE to sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter including our daily STRATEGY PODCASTThis week 'On the Couch' Henry chats to Greg McKenna the CEO of the multi award winning  Police Bank, a bank that serves those in Blue. Greg McKenna is a familiar face to Sky Business viewers with his expert take on the economy and the macro picture. Back in 2018 Greg swapped his economist's hat to work on the board of the Police Bank and was named as the CEO of the Police Bank in March this year. Greg had been working in Banking and finance since 1986 and had played a long role in the Bank and the Police Community, having served on the Board of Police Bank as a Director between July 2012 and July 2018 and then as Chair where he was key to refreshing the Bank’s strategy.As a CEO of a financial institution, Greg has a unique insight on what is happening in the ‘real’ world and how customers are coping with the pandemic. As always, Greg brings his wealth of experience and knowledge and talks Neobanks, Fintech and how he sees Modern Monetary Theory playing out in the money printing world of central banks.Enjoy!
In today's podcast Marcus tells us what to do about this vaccine news. Which stocks to buy and which stocks to sell. CLICK HERE to sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter including our daily STRATEGY PODCASTWhat a week - Trump gone, the adults back in charge of the US and, as if that wasn't enough, now we (appear to) get a vaccine that solves Biden's and the World's worst worry - tackling the virus. Pandemic over? There are always finger waggers when we get good news (there may be legitimate vaccine developments/delays we are not factoring in) but there are also times in the stock market when you have to take a risk - and if this isn't it, then what is? Chickens don't make money.  Good day for the Bulls and potentially, in the right cyclical and recovery stocks, today marks a multi-decade buying opportunity.
This week a special ‘On the Couch’ with Chris Hall the CIO of Ellerston Low Volatility Income Strategy fund or ELVIS.  The ELVIS Fund has been a consistent outperformer and is made up of between 30-40 mid to large cap stocks with a focus on delivering low volatility consistent income returns. For any member looking at ways to maximise income On the Couch this week should be compulsory listening as Chris lets us in on some interesting ideas on where to find income and equity growth. Chris spent over ten years as Senior Investment Officer at Argo Investments Limited, managing the Australian equities team and its A$5 billion in assets. Before Argo, he was Managing Director and Senior Portfolio Manager at Blackrock Asset Management in Hong Kong, as well as being a member of the Management Committee overseeing the Asian Fundamental Equities Team with $35bn in assets.This VIDEO might interest some of you as Chris talks about rewriting the rules on income. 
CLICK HERE to sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter including our daily STRATEGY PODCASTThis week, we finish the year off with a sit down with an old favourite, Adam Dawes from Shaw and Partners. Adam and Henry chat about 2020, some of the lessons learned, his top three picks for 2021 and what the ‘Black Swan’ event could be to upset the Australian economy and the market in 2021. Adam is a familiar face to many of you appearing regularly on Ausbiz, SBS, the ABC and CNBC where the Bank of Japan is his specialised subject. Adam has been very generous with his time since we launched the podcast earlier this year, and this is his fourth episode of ‘On the Couch’ this year and hopefully we can get him back in 2021.
 A quiet Monday morning as was expected, with vaccine updates still holding the headlines. A bit of a focus on central banks this week with the FOMC, BoE, and BoJ all meeting. Outside of that things are slowing down as we approach the Christmas shutdown period. 30 RSI sell signals on the scan again today and just the one buy signal. Plus, updates on Marcus' "Longest Day" as he raises money for the Cancer Council by playing 72 holes of golf in a day. 
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