Geopolitical Horizons

Central Asia was once the prize in the so-called Great Game, a centre of competition for the Russians, British, Persians, Mongols and Turks at various times. The region sits at the intersection of the Russian steppes, the western Chinese frontier, the mountain passes into the Indian subcontinent, and the modern Middle East. The region is at once a barrier and a bridge between the powers in its periphery. It is a path for trade and a highway for invasion, a vast strategic buffer and a cauldron of ethnic and national competition and instability. In this podcast we look at the geopolitics of Central Asia.

With global power shifting to the East it become even more important to understand this region, its history, geopolitics and future role.

The 3rd March 2024 marks the 100 year anniversary of the demise of the Khilafah. The decades leading up to the 3rd March 1924, was a difficult period for the global leadership of the Muslims, as various European powers were competing with each other over Arabia, North Africa, the Balkans and the Black sea. Today, 100 years on Capitalism's supremacy is running out of steam. As we fast approach the quarter point of the 21st century, the forward march of liberal values, the dominance of democracy and the liberal economic order are all on life support. The West is now struggling to justify why we should all be liberals. Across the Muslim world the demand for Islamic governance remains high, something recognised by successive polls and surveys. In the context of liberal values struggling to deliver, does the Khilafah 100 years since its demise still present a new opportunity for nearly 2 billion Muslims? Will its resurrection be able to work in the 21st century? 

Russia spectacular failure to conquer the Ukrainian capital two years ago is now a distant memory. On the two year anniversary since Russia’s invasion, Ukraine is running out of troops as well as western support and calls for negotiations are only growing. US and European attempts to sanction, isolate and cripple Russia have failed to succeed. The broad support from the West that promised ‘as long as it takes’ has now given way to war fatigue. A Western-Ukrainian victory is looking allusive on the second anniversary of the conflict. 

With so much going on currently in the world in this podcast we can look at multiple geopolitical issues. 

Elections, wars, coups, tech wars and trade wars are just some of the trends that will likely shape the new year. In this podcast we look at the key issues that will likely shape the geopolitical landscape in 2024. 

In this podcast we preview the forthcoming annual geopolity report, Strategic Estimate 2024

2024 will be a bumper year for elections. There are scheduled to be 76 national elections, across the world, with over 4 billion people going to the polls. Some of the world's most powerful nations will have elections next year as well as a number of strategic nations. The outcome of many of these will have global repercussions and will shape relations into the 2030s.

It's been over a month since the events of 7th October where a number of Palestinian resistance groups launched an assault into Southern Israel. Israel responded with a broad invasion of the Gaza Strip and the images that continue to beam out have led to much criticism of Israel, due to the mounting civilian casualties.  What is Israel's end game?  Is the two state solution dead? Has public opinion turned against Israel? Who’s winning the information war? 

It has been over a week since the events of 7 Oct, where various groups from the Gaza Strip carried out an audacious operation into Southern Israel. Hamas and various other groups captured army bases, hostages and soldiers. Israel is still shocked and they have called it there 9/11 and a ground invasion of the Gaza strip is imminent. This will have major implications for the region and beyond and in this podcast we unpack it all.

The Middle East seems to always be in the news. From monarchies, to oil, to war to terrorism. Very rarely does a day go by without the Middle East being in the news. On amazon.com the Middle East is the most written about topic. How do we make sense of this complex region? Who are the key players? What are the long-term trends? 

With its countless ethnic groups, tribes, languages and nations, Africa is not just a huge continent but a very diverse one. The countries in Africa share a history of foreign exploitation and a legacy of poverty and corruption as well as stifled political development that has prevented the African people from capitalising on their economic potential. In this podcast we look at the geopolitics of Africa.

Semiconductors are fast becoming the oil of the 21st century. They are what allow us to get all the power and speed in things like smartphones, tablets, digital TVs, wireless communications infrastructure, network hardware, computers and many more devices which have smart capabilities. The supply chain for semiconductors is critical, similar to how the supply chain for oil was in the 20th century. Last Year US president Biden placed an embargo on the export of advanced semiconductor chips and equipment to China and so now there is in effect an arms race on semiconductors. 

The war in Ukraine has just passed its 18-month anniversary. It was on 24 February 2022 when Russian troops crossed into Ukraine beginning Europe's first interstate war since WW2. Since then, the west has provided military and economic support to Ukraine whilst Russia has been trying to conquer territory and grind out a victory. 

It was two years ago on August 15th, when the Afghan people prevailed against another empire as the US got up and left the mountainous country after a disastrous two decade occupation. The Taliban have been busy trying to rule over the nation and trying to solve the myriad of challenges. How have they fared 2 years on? 

The ancient Greeks, Romans, the place of the reformation and the enlightenment. The region that found the new world and colonised the world, for the last 500 years Europe defined the world. In this podcast we begin by looking at the regions of the world, beginning with Europe 

There is lots of chatter about the demise of the dollar, especially since the US placed unprecedented sanctions on Russia. Many US commentators are talking about the end of the dollar's dominance as a number of US allies trade with China in currencies that do not include the dollar. It seems not a day goes by without China's currency, the Yuan being in the news. The recent gathering of the BRICS organisation revealed they are considering launching a new currency. Many consider BRICS will replace western institutions such as the G7 and the IMF. So are the days of the US created financial order numbered? 

The killing of Nahel Mehzuk, a 17-year-old French-Algerian delivery driver during a traffic stop by French police has led to widespread protests in France. For many, taking to the streets is an expression of frustration and anger over injustices such as racism and inequality. Whilst for others it's a case of immigrants not adopting French values. In this podcast we sit down with Al-Ameer who was born and grew up in Paris on the underlying issues facing France 

We asked you on a number of platforms for your questions on geopolitics. We gathered these together and put them to geopolity founder Adnan Khan. 0.52 - Why are relations being normalised with Al-Assad 4:18 - What does Erdogan's recent electoral victory mean for Turkey's future 7:01 - What is the current status in Pakistan between the army and Imran Khan 9:12 - Tensions have broken out between the Taliban and Iran. What is going on, what is the latest with Afghanistan? 11:18 - Where does the war in Ukraine currently stand? 12:57 - We can't really talk about Ukraine Adnan without talking about the rebellion by Wagner a few weeks ago. We did do a Podcast at the time, but what do we know now that we didn't necessarily know then? 17:26 - Can India ever become a global power? 20:03 - Is US power in decline? 22:51 - Can you explain how the concept of a vassal nation works  25:12 - How is it possible that independent nations have disputes with someone else's vassal nation? 27:31 - How does one acquire deep political thinking, what books can one read

The events of the weekend in Russia could have been a plot from a Russian drama. A rogue soldier withdraws his units and leaves the battlefront in order to carry out a coup. He takes over a key base in Southern Russia which is essential for the war in Ukraine and whilst this is all going on, Moscow is put under high alert for a potential coup. And as we approached the climax of the plot an agreement is struck, and everything all comes to an end. The Coup is over, but is Putin still in trouble?