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The euro goes up, the dollar goes down, and China devalues the yuan. But what's behind these currency fluctuations? This forex podcast is all about the global currency market. Our three financial market analysts, who are also top Bloomberg forecasters, discuss macro-economic news and its effect on the global financial market - providing you with insights to make informed decisions. *The information contained in this podcast does not constitute a recommendation from any Ebury entity to the recipient.
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The Bank of England slashed its policy rate by 25 basis points for the first time since 2020 on Thursday in a narrow 5-4 vote. While this was not fully priced in by markets, the bank’s statement struck a cautious note on future cuts, warning that rates would not be lowered too much or too quickly. This partly allowed GBP to hold its own following the decision.Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve held rates steady on Wednesday, but chair Powell firmly hinted at a cut at the next meeting in September...
The last few weeks have been action packed in financial markets. Political news has been front and centre following elections in the UK and France, and the shocking assassination attempt on Donald Trump over the weekend. While the dollar received a modest boost on the growing likelihood of a Trump election win, the greenback is trading lower on most currencies globally so far this month following the miss in the June US inflation report.But is a September interest rate cut from the Federal Re...
Activity in the FX market since our last episode has been largely dominated by political jitters, with both France and Britain to go to the polls in crucial elections in the coming weeks. While the UK general election appears a foregone conclusion, the French legislative elections are anything but. We break down the possible scenarios of the latter, and discuss what kind of impact the vote could have on the euro, which has underperformed its peers since the election was called.We also discuss...
2024 looks set to go down in the history books as one of the most significant years in global politics in modern times, with almost half of the world’s population to take to the polls in some capacity. A historic rematch between current US President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump looks highly likely when Americans take to the polls in November. As things stand, markets are almost entirely in the dark as to who will come out on top, and it is also similarly unclear as to which par...
The FX market has been sparked back into life in the past fortnight. A bout of strong data out of the US economy, notably the March inflation and nonfarm payrolls reports, has led markets to push back their timetable for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Heightened tensions in the Middle East following Iran’s missile attack on Israel has also triggered safe-haven flows into the dollar, which has jumped to its strongest position against its major peers since November. But, when do we see the...
March was an extraordinarily busy month in the foreign exchange market, with a host of major central bank announcements creating an interesting trading environment. The Bank of Japan and Swiss National Bank both surprised investors, with the former raising interest rates for the first time since 2007, while the latter cut its main rate one meeting ahead of expectations. The dollar has rallied against most currencies globally, despite the Fed indicating to markets that it sees three US rate cu...
The big talking point in the FX market in the past couple of weeks has been the sell-off in the US dollar, which has lost ground against almost every currency globally. FOMC chair Powell has hinted that a first US rate cut may be close, and markets are now eyeing the bank’s June meeting as the start date for easing. US macroeconomic data, meanwhile, has been rather mixed, with a weak nonfarm payrolls report offset by hotter-than-expected inflation data. The coming week looks set to be a ...
In this week’s episode, our analysts discuss the latest business activity PMI numbers out of the G3 economies, which seem to be pointing to a convergence in economic performance between the US and its major peers. Matt, Enrique and Roman also give their thoughts on what to expect from next week’s European Central Bank meeting. While the economy in the common bloc has ground to a near standstill, communications from Governing Council members have been hawkish, and a change in rates in March se...
The UK economy crashed into a technical recession in the second half of 2023, after Britain’s GDP contracted for the second straight quarter in Q4. While this was no big surprise to investors, the magnitude of the downturn was more severe than anticipated. But, what impact did the news have on the pound? And how could the UK’s disappointing growth performance influence Bank of England monetary policy?Elsewhere, Japan’s economy also fell into recession, adding further misery to the yen. The do...
In this week's episode, we delve into key economic data releases and major central bank meetings that lie ahead. Recently, the USD has demonstrated notable strength, rallying across all G10 currencies. The driving force behind this surge? Markets adjusting expectations as the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in March dips below 50%, marking the first time since the December FOMC meeting. The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and robust US economic data, including encouraging December retail sales ...
In this week's episode, our analysts turn their attention to the year ahead, and give their thoughts on what to expect in the FX market in the coming twelve months. What will be the most important themes in markets this year, and how could central bank easing cycles and the US and UK elections impact currencies? We also give our thoughts on the global economy, and discuss the arguments in favour of both stronger and weaker growth in 2024. Our episode ends with our analysts providing thei...
In this episode, we delve into the aftermath of the Federal Reserve's unexpectedly dovish shift following its December policy meeting. FOMC Chair Powell said the ‘progress’ had been made on inflation, while noting that discussions were already being had on interest rate cuts. The ‘dot plot’ was also revised lower, suggesting a total of 75 basis points of cuts in 2024. Markets embraced the narrative of imminent and rapid rate reductions, triggering a sharp sell-off in the US dollar against mos...
We unpack the recent inflation developments, focusing on the disappointing October US and UK CPI reports. These both fell short of market expectations, leading to no shortage of volatility in markets. US headline inflation dropped sharply to 3.2%, while monthly inflation failed to rise for the first time since July 2022. This, coupled with a two-year low in the core measure, all but cemented expectations that the Federal Reserve is done with its hiking cycle. The result was a sharp sell-off i...
We have a special guest in this episode of FX Talk, Ebury's Head of Nordics, Carl Lindh, as we debate the outlook for the main currencies in Scandinavia. Before we get into that, we discuss the fallout from the latest major central bank meetings, and October’s underwhelming US nonfarm payrolls report.Both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England held rates steady this month, while hinting that further rate hikes were probably unlikely. The FOMC struck an optimistic tone on US growth, altho...
The ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestine has taken centre stage, with a focus on the recent Hamas attacks and the Israeli military's retaliatory actions.Meanwhile, financial markets remain fixated on economic data and central bank decisions. Following our previous episode, most currencies rebounded against the dollar, thanks in part to a dovish tone from several Fed policymakers that tempered expectations of more US rate hikes.However, the dollar has shown broad strength in the past ...
September was a very busy month in the FX market, dominated by a host of major central bank meetings. Events kicked off with the ECB, which delivered a ‘dovish hike’, whereby it raised rates, but suggested that there was minimal appetite to hike again. Investors were taken aback by the Bank of England’s decision to hold rates steady, after the August UK inflation report missed expectations. On the flip side, the Federal Reserve adopted a hawkish stance, keeping rates unchanged, although ...
In recent weeks, the USD has performed well largely due to safe-haven flows, which came about because of investors' concerns about economic slowdown in China. The slowdown is being evidenced by disappointing data like GDP, PMI, retail sales, and industrial production, along with issues in the property sector. On the other hand, the US economy has shown great strength, with a healthy labour market and impressive growth indicators. In contrast, the Euro and Sterling have fallen from their...
August is typically a quiet month in the financial markets as investors often take a break, seeking sunnier climates elsewhere. In consequence, volatility can be relatively low, and currency trades tend to be narrower due to the lack of substantial economic news or announcements. Predicting whether this pattern will follow suit this year is challenging without a definitive forecast. However, it's notable that there remains plenty for the markets to consider and for us to discuss.Over the past...
The past fortnight has been eventful with high volatility observed in both Emerging Markets (EM) and major currencies. The significant development was a sharp decline in the US Dollar (USD). Indeed, the USD Index reported one of the largest weekly sell-offs since the Global Financial Crisis.Investors reacted to a less-than-expected set of US inflation figures. The headline inflation dropped to 3% in March 2021, while the core inflation decreased to below 5% in November 2021.The sell-off in th...
Recording during a relatively calm period in the foreign exchange market. Most major currencies are experiencing narrow ranges, partly due to the summer season and national holidays, including Independence Day on July 4th in the US. Typically, summers are quieter for currency markets, but they haven't been completely inactive recently. Central bank leaders have taken a generally hawkish stance, as seen at the meeting in Sintra, Portugal. Powell has reiterated the possibility of a couple more ...
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