Beyond Politics

Could the blue wave be a mirage? Democratic strategist Matt Robison and Republican strategist Matt Wylie break down the midterm polls, the Senate map and the fake pollster scandal.Political Rehab, where PTI meets The Daily Show: a Democrat and a Republican who get along, unpacking the week in politics.In The Battlefield, we ask whether the polls are overstating Democrats or understating them. A fake pollster (Wedgewood) gets caught, and we look at what pollsters may be missing, from polling error to recalled-vote weighting (G. Elliott Morris). Then the Senate races that decide control: Georgia, Ohio, Iowa, Kansas, Alaska, Texas, Maine and South Carolina, plus Missouri's 2nd District and what Republican campaigns' own behavior says about their numbers. Matt Wylie gives his prediction: a blue ripple, not a wave.Also in the rundown: Vivek Ramaswamy's attack ad on Amy Acton, Trump lashing out at reporters, Trump's favors to Putin, and why the White House keeps motivating Democrats.TIMESTAMPS0:00 Preview and show open1:05 Fake pollster Wedgewood caught, FCC warns broadcasters on polls3:57 Ramaswamy's attack ad on Amy Acton8:07 Trump rages at reporters10:59 Trump's favors to Putin14:30 Why the White House keeps motivating Democrats18:43 The Battlefield: could the blue wave be a mirage?19:18 Warning signs for Republicans in Missouri and Kansas23:06 South Carolina Senate race moves to Lean Republican24:30 The polling math: weighting, polling error, recalled vote29:13 Wylie's verdict: a ripple, not a wave30:21 The scoreboard: Trump approval, generic ballot, prediction markets, Senate math34:25 Dose of Hope: Wylie on campaign ads and mailers37:05 Dose of Hope: a record-setting Mars roverRead Worth Knowing with Matt Robison: https://worthknowing.substack.comSubscribe: https://worthknowing.substack.com/subscribe#BlueWave #Midterms2026 #Polls #PoliticalRehab #Senate #MattRobison #MattWylie

If Trump contests the midterms, will the press fail us? Mark Jacob, former Chicago Tribune and Chicago Sun-Times editor, on how newsrooms can avoid just repeating whatever gets said first.Election protection experts say the greatest threat to the midterms comes after Election Day, when false claims, pressure on election officials and misleading headlines can shape whether the public accepts the results. In this Worth Knowing live stream, I talk with Mark Jacob, a former Chicago Tribune metro editor and Chicago Sun-Times Sunday editor, about what the press is doing right, where it could fail, and what you can do to prepare.In this conversation:- Why "Trump says" headlines are, in Jacob's words, "empty calories"- Jacob's fix for live TV: cut away at the first false claim, go to a panel of experts, and add real-time corrections on screen- The 2000 Brooks Brothers riot, and Jacob's argument connecting it to later Supreme Court decisions- Why the New York Times invited Jacob to criticize its coverage on video, and what he says its editor told him about the word "lie"- Jacob's scoring of Trump against the American Psychiatric Association's 14 warning signs of mental illness (an opinion exercise, not a clinical diagnosis)- Media capture: Semafor reported that CBS News editor-in-chief Bari Weiss pushed CBS journalists to pursue angles on Michigan Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed and the Muslim Brotherhood. CBS legal correspondent Jan Crawford deleted a post about El-Sayed and apologized for violating CBS News standards.CHAPTERS00:00 The media's test after the midterms02:00 What worries Mark Jacob most: repeating whatever Trump says first04:30 How false claims put pressure on election officials06:00 Prebuttals: getting ahead of election lies07:00 The Brooks Brothers riot and the 2000 Florida recount08:30 Why Jacob isn't optimistic: January 6 and what comes next10:00 What you can do now: election protection11:30 Live press conferences: cut away at the first lie14:00 Social media, Russia and the French riots16:00 The Talarico flu rumor, and Elon Musk's role19:30 From the Brooks Brothers riot to Citizens United: Jacob's argument21:30 Musk, federal data and voter-roll demands23:00 The New York Times invites Jacob to "Sound Off"25:30 "Improvisational departure" and other Times euphemisms27:30 Is it a lie? Jacob's libel-standard test30:00 The Times editor's defense, and why it won't say "dictatorship"31:30 The hurricane metaphor35:30 Trump and the 14 warning signs of mental illness37:30 Jacob's scorecard: seven yes, six no, one maybe40:00 Do voters already know, and does it still matter?43:30 Make a voting plan45:30 Bari Weiss, CBS and Jan Crawford's deleted post47:30 What "media capture" means: the Ellisons, Musk, Bezos and others50:00 Support independent mediaSubscribe to Worth Knowing with Matt Robison for my newsletter and analysis: https://worthknowing.substack.comPaid subscribers get my full Impact Guide, with the most effective techniques for donating, volunteering and persuading others.Subscribe to this channel for new episodes.#Midterms2026 #ElectionProtection #Trump #Media #WorthKnowing

Republicans are trying to buy the midterms with a $1 billion war chest. Can they spend their way out of midterm disaster? Matt Robison (Democratic insider) and Matt Wylie (Republican consultant) break down the Republican midterm strategy, the cash behind it, and the panic moves coming out of the White House, then run the numbers on the House and Senate.Subscribe to Worth Knowing for more midterm analysis: https://worthknowing.substack.comGet new episodes and articles by email: https://worthknowing.substack.com/subscribeIN THIS EPISODE- Republican groups hold about $1 billion in cash vs. about $579 million for Democrats (AP), and Elon Musk has put in at least $276 million since July- How Fox News, Trump rallies and Republican ads are all aimed at the same small group of Republican voters- Susie Wiles, a new press secretary and the rally trail: panic moves 19 days out- Trump's Russian diesel deal and the Starshield restriction on Ukraine- Reuters' nine ways the administration could interfere with the midterms, and the "rogue clerk" scenario- The Battlefield: why Republicans are writing off some House seats, where the money is going in the Senate, and why late-deciding voters may not be enough- Dose of Hope: voters are tired of excuses, plus Michael J. Fox gets promotedCHAPTERS0:00 Can Republicans buy their way out?1:00 Money bomb: $1 billion in Republican cash and Musk's $276 million4:20 Base voters and the Fox News attack machine7:10 Wheels off: Wiles, Zacharia and Trump's rallies10:10 Putin's payday: the Russian diesel deal and Starshield13:45 Election hijack: Reuters' nine scenarios17:35 The Battlefield18:15 Republicans cut off two House incumbents19:30 South Carolina, Alaska and where the money is going21:35 The numbers: how Republicans keep the Senate close26:10 Do late-deciding voters add up?30:55 Dose of Hope: voters are tired of excuses33:50 Dose of Hope: Michael J. Fox and Alex P. KeatonPolitical Rehab is a weekly show where a Democratic insider and a Republican insider break down the week in politics and get along while doing it.#Midterms2026 #MidtermElections #Republicans #PoliticalRehab #ElonMusk #Senate #Trump

If Republicans get wiped out in the midterms, will they finally break with Trump? An anti-Trump Republican campaign strategist answers, axplains why a cornered Trump could be even more dangerous for the next two years. ALSO, what will happen to Democrats if they win majorities by winning in red territory? Will the party civil war get bigger, or will they row in the same direction?Matt Wylie, Republican political consultant and co-host of Political Rehab, and Cliff Schecter of Blue Amp Media, former Biden ad writer and communications strategist, join Matt Robison, former three-time congressional Chief of Staff, to look past Election Day at both parties.In this episode:Why a narrow Democratic win could be spun as a Republican victoryMarco Rubio’s attempt to fuse traditional conservatism with Trump’s politics of dominance, and why Andrew Sullivan called it “nihilist”How anti-Trump Republicans plan to take their party back, and why it won’t happen until late 2027Why impeaching Trump first could backfire on DemocratsIs there really a progressive surge? What the primary data showsWhat a Democratic majority built on red-state wins means for the party, and “the Bloc” threatening Hakeem JeffriesLightning round: will Democrats end the filibuster, expand the Supreme Court, impeach Trump a third time? Plus each guest’s pick for the 2028 nomineesChapters00:00 Will Republicans finally dump Trump?01:50 Matt Wylie: no lane while Trump is in the White House02:45 Why a narrow Democratic win could be spun as a GOP victory04:45 Cliff Schecter: “a 50-year storm”08:15 Marco Rubio’s “Frankenstein” Republican Party09:45 How anti-Trump Republicans plan to retake the party12:45 Why impeaching Trump first could backfire15:15 How do you criticize Trump and survive as a Republican?17:45 Are anti-Trump Republicans complicit?21:00 Is there really a progressive surge?23:00 What a red-state Democratic majority means for the party28:40 “The Bloc” and the fight over Speaker Jeffries32:40 What could unite Democrats34:00 Lightning round: what will Democratic majorities do?42:40 Predictions: the 2028 nomineesPolitical Rehab, Midterm HQ, and the Impact Guide, a plain-English handbook for effective political giving, volunteering and persuasion, are all at Worth Knowing with Matt Robison:https://worthknowing.substack.com#Midterms2026 #Republicans #Trump

Republicans are spending hundreds of millions to save the 2026 midterms — so why are they suddenly fighting for states they should win easily? Democrat Matt Robison and Republican strategist Matt Wylie break down why Kansas is now a Senate toss-up, Trump is campaigning in deep-red states, Republican voters are having second thoughts, and GOP insiders are already pointing fingers before Election Day. How much worse can it get?Get Matt's weekly analysis at Worth Knowing with Matt Robison: https://worthknowing.substack.comSubscribe free: https://worthknowing.substack.com/subscribeIn this episode:The Republican money pit: nearly $600 million in September congressional advertising, the $122 million Texas Senate fight, and why GOP spending isn't delivering better resultsBarack Obama returns to campaign for Democrats, Kamala Harris makes selective appearances, and Joe Biden stays on the sidelinesTrump's surprising campaign stops in Alabama, Nebraska, and Texas — and what they reveal about Republican concernsCan voters trust the polls? Why the 2026 midterm numbers may be telling Republicans exactly what they fearThe Republican blame game begins: Trump, his campaign advisers, Ken Paxton, Steve Bannon, and who's responsible if Republicans get crushedThe Battlefield: Kansas becomes a Senate toss-up, prominent Republicans back a Democrat, and the fight moves into traditionally Republican territoryNew polling finds one in four 2024 Trump voters regrets their vote, including roughly a third of non-MAGA RepublicansThe 2026 election scoreboard: competitive races in Kansas, Ohio, Iowa, Nebraska, Alaska, and North Carolina, plus a Democratic generic-ballot advantageDose of Hope: Pope Leo, the Chicago White Sox, AI consciousness, and the 2026 Nobel Prizes💬 If Republicans are fighting to hold Kansas, how much worse could November get for the GOP?Chapters:0:00 Cold open and rundown1:02 The Republican money pit4:54 Obama returns to campaign for Democrats7:14 Why is Trump campaigning in red states?11:00 Can we trust the polls?14:29 The Republican blame game begins17:22 The Battlefield: Republicans fight for red states18:22 Could Republicans actually lose Kansas?22:28 One in four Trump voters regrets their vote27:06 The 2026 midterm scoreboard30:11 Dose of Hope: The Pope, AI, and the White Sox32:05 Dose of Hope: The Nobel Prizes and scientific breakthroughsRead Matt's latest election analysis and follow the changing 2026 midterm map at Worth Knowing: https://worthknowing.substack.com#Midterms2026 #Trump #Republicans #PoliticalRehab #Election2026 #KansasSenate #Congress #Obama