Matters of Policy & Politics

By now, it’s a familiar story in American politics: a president comes to office with his party in control of Congress, only to see a disillusioned electorate hand over the legislative branch to the opposition party two years later. Will 2026 be more of the same – and a repeat of what befell President Trump in 2018 when Republicans lost control of the House of Representatives in the party’s worst loss since Watergate? David Brady and Douglas Rivers, Hoover Institution senior fellows and Stanford University political scientists, discuss what their tracking poll of voters suggests in the way of a “wave” election (Brady thinks a Democratic gain of 30 House and six Senate seats could pan out, though a half-dozen Senate races are too close to call). Also discussed: current instability in American politics as opposed to relative stability over the past century; why pollsters struggle to measure Republican sentiment in rural “red” states; and what lies ahead after next week’s election – Democrats juggling progressive demands while trying to come across as mainstream-moderate, while Republicans begin to adjust to the reality of life after the term-limited Trump (not that Trump will leave the stage as the GOP chooses his successor). Recorded on October 29, 2026. RELATED SOURCES Wave, Semi-Wave or Something Else? From Dominance to Parity: America’s Political Parties and the New Era of Electoral Instability YouGov Political Polling

With polls showing the public wanting more government oversight of artificial intelligence – AI leaders themselves begging Congress and the White House to step in – what’s a sensible path forward at both the federal and state levels? Patrick McLaughlin, the Hoover Institution’s Shepard Family Fellow in Economics, discusses how to avoid what he calls “the 50-state tollbooth problem” for AI – as in shipping on the Rhine in medieval Germany, a challenge in keeping traffic moving without too many inconveniences. Also discussed: why regulatory reform and the concept of lowering consumers' prices by thinning red tape isn’t part of the election-year conversation, how Idaho, Virginia and British Columbia made deregulation work in their respective lands, and what a pair of November ballot initiatives in California – one promising more affordable housing, the other addressing a notorious environmental statute – say about life in America’s most regulated state. RELATED SOURCES FRONTIER Act TAKE IT DOWN Act The Fifty-State Tollbooth Problem for AI Data Transport, AI and Growth How Do Federal Regulations Affect Consumer Prices? An Analysis of the Regressive Effects of Regulation Regulation and the Cost of Moving Goods 2026 Economic Report of the President The Cumulative Cost of Regulations

Robert E. Hall, the Hoover Institution’s Robert and Carole McNeil Senior Fellow (Emeritus) and Stanford professor of economics, has been named a co-recipient of the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences for his contributions to understanding macroeconomic stabilization. Hall becomes the sixth Hoover economist in the past half-century to receive the honor, continuing a tradition that began with Milton Friedman. In a new episode of Matters of Policy & Politics, Hoover senior fellow Valerie Ramey, who once served as Hall’s graduate research assistant, discusses how his pioneering work in New Keynesian economics has shaped modern economic research and influenced monetary and fiscal policy. Ramey also explores Hall’s contributions to understanding economic shocks, his distinctive approach to explaining complex economic ideas, and his lasting influence on generations of economists.

A vestige of Lyndon Johnson’s “Great Society”, the federal Medicare healthcare program has expanded in ways its architects perhaps didn’t foresee – a growing constituency (nearly 70 million elderly Americans now rely on Medicare for their healthcare needs, with that number climbing as more Americans reach their golden years) and senior healthcare occupying a growing chunk of the federal budget (Medicare now accounting for one in every seven dollars Washington spends). With the entitlement going bankrupt as soon as 2033, what reforms can “rescue” Medicare – not to mention Social Security, which could run out of funding as soon as 2032? Tom Church, a Hoover policy fellow who’s done considerable research on entitlement and healthcare reform, discusses why Medicare reform went nowhere a decade ago, policy avenues for driving down costs, plus limitations imposed by the current political lineup in Washington – a Republican president famously averse to entitlement reform and an opposition party championing a single-payer “Medicare for All” alternative, suggesting the looming crisis will be tabled until 2029 or later. Also discussed: Church’s work with Hoover’s ambitious and bipartisan Tennenbaum Program for Fact-Based Policy.

A divided America agrees on one thing: most folks don’t want new data centers in their communities. But do data centers live up to their sour reputation as water and electricity gluttons? Or are they, in fact, a 21st Century version of the automobile – an innovation deemed dangerous at first, but eventually a means to community advancement and prosperity? Steven Koonin, the Hoover Institution’s Edward Teller Senior Fellow and an energy policy expert, discusses what’s behind data-center NIMBYism and whether America will rise to the challenge of a greater demand for electricity in the near future as artificial intelligence and the needs of an increasingly information-intensive society and economy continue to reshape the nation’s landscape. Also discussed: the US Energy Department’s embrace of a “golden age of nuclear energy” (speaking of technology that once spawned NIMBY discontent), an evolving climate change debate (why does the UN bother to celebrate “climate weeks”?) and an emergency-mode California bracing for an El Niño event that’s expected to submerge vast portions of the Golden State in the coming months.