The Science of Politics

How well can we predict elections? by Niskanen Center

Opposition to AI data centers has become the hot 2026 campaign issue. But many data centers are already being built, especially in places with less capacity to object. Will this moment be the start of feasible AI regulation or just empower some to shift development out of their area? Vasundhara Kaul finds that data centers tend to be built in minority communities and places hurting for economic development. Daniel Schiff joins us to discuss the broader implications of the backlash for AI governance. They both say better regulation is possible but does run up against a traditional political constraint: that the powerful tend to offload harms to those without the power to object.

Many Members of Congress are electorally vulnerable this year. Do they have to moderate to survive? They may have another strategy: going local, pointing to their constituency service and the local interests they are serving. Jaclyn Kaslovsky finds that House members facing difficult elections spend more time at home, introduce more locally focused bills, and shift to serving their constituents. They de-emphasize national policymaking rather than dramatically changing their positions.

Voters now associate brands and lifestyle choices with each partisan side, meaning candidates can use ostensibly non-political signals like attending NASCAR and eating Chick-fil-a to show their loyalties. When do these candidate symbols translate into ideological reputations? Can candidates use the other parties' symbols to attract their voters? Levi Allen finds that voters can intuit partisanship from symbols like cowboy boots and a truck but rely more on partisan and policy information when it is available. Yet a Republican candidate drinking Starbucks and driving a Prius can cost him with Republicans without helping him with Democrats.

Headlines showed U.S. debt passing the $40 trillion mark and bond market jitters. But addressing the debt's quick rise is not a top priority for either party. Were they ever fiscally responsible or were they just paying lip service? And why has it moved even further down the agenda? Derek Epp finds that both parties introduce measures that increase spending and vote to expand the deficit. Republicans do cast more show votes for deficit reduction, but not when they count for policy.