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Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis

2022-10-0502:17

- Market Overview- COMI- HELI- ABUK-  AUTO-  EFIH- FWRY- ORWE- SWDY- Prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe
Pre-Trading Thoughts

Pre-Trading Thoughts

2022-10-0503:29

The government has concluded the valuation for assets worth USD15 billion to offer them to foreign investors.Suez Canal revenues recorded USD683.2 million in September (+21% YoY), supported by 9% growth in volumes.Eight Austrian water companies are in Egypt to discuss investment in the water, wastewater and desalination projects. The Administrative Capital for Urban Development Company presented investment opportunities, worth USD1.5 billion, to the Kuwaiti businessmen delegation visiting Egypt.  Banks now have until 14 September 2023 to comply with the new capital requirements (EGP5.0 billion) of the 2020 Banking Act. Cabinet rejected a proposal submitted by the Fertilizer Producers and Distributors Association, that the subsidy would be converted to cash. The government promised the possibility of implementation, but within two years from now, and it would be through a gradual lifting of the subsidy scenario.CHC, SWFE, and Ministry of Electricity are expected to sign a partnership agreement with Benchmark Power International (BPI), to establish a green ammonia plant worth USD 750 million.Some international car companies demanded that local importers pay the value of the imported shipments of production components in advance before requesting any new shipments from abroad. Customs authority released some of the grains held up at Egyptian ports for more than two months.IDHC inaugurates a new Alborg Scan branch in Maadi worth EGP50 mn and has three more branches in the pipeline worth a combined EGP200 mn.
Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis

2022-10-0402:09

- Market Overview- COMI- EMFD- ABUK- CCAP- AMOC- HRHO- Prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe
Pre-Trading Thoughts

Pre-Trading Thoughts

2022-10-0404:04

The IMF should reach staff-level agreements on “sizeable” loans to Egypt and Tunisia “very soon," IMF Managing Director Georgieva told Reuters. Egypt’s PMI recorded 47.6 in September, unchanged from that seen in August. Output and new business fall sharply, Overall input costs rise at a marked pace, but Headcounts expand for the third month in succession. The EGP yesterday registered 19.67 against the USD.The World Bank has approved a USD 400 mn financing agreement to boost the transport and logistics sectors in Egypt.Prime Minister issued a decision to amend the executive regulations of the capital market law, to regulate the issuance of sustainable development bonds.A subsidiary of STC has acquired BINV’s stake in Giza Systems (44.7%) for USD53 mn before deductions or c.USD44 mn after deductions. This translates into EGP860 mn for BINV or EGP5.37/BINV share. HRHO’s Corp-Solutions will provide leasing and factoring services to education providers in local fintech startup Klickit’s network. CANA arranged for Fresh Appliance manufacturer ST financing of EGP450 million, using CBE initiative to support the industrial sector at 8%.Four automotive producers showed interest in launching projects to manufacture electric vehicles in Egypt: Nissan Egypt, General Motors, Stellantis, and BYD.CIRA BoD decided to distribute dividends of EGP0.21/share (DY 1.79%). Suez Canal Economic Zone signed an agreement with Kuwaiti’s Agility to set up and operate two customs and logistics services hub in Ain Sokhna and East Port Said with an investment of USD60 million.   
Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis

2022-10-0301:09

- Market Overview- Prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe
Pre-Trading Thoughts

Pre-Trading Thoughts

2022-10-0303:23

Net foreign assets (NFAs) of the banking system declined from USD-19.4 billion in July to USD-20.09 billion in August (net foreign liabilities (NFLs)) position. We assume those movements are related to the CA deficit. We expect urban annual inflation to increase to 14.9% YoY (1.4% MoM) on continued increase in some Items including food items and tobacco.The IMF will release its latest World economic outlook on Wednesday, and will hold their annual meetings in Washington, DC, next week, from 10-16 October.OPEC+ is expected to cut oil output by more than 1 mn barrels per day to prop up falling oil prices at its meeting on Wednesday (Reuters).El Sisi asked the central bank to work on new initiatives to attract foreign investments to Egypt and to follow up on import challenges resolution. The Ministry of Supply and Internal Trade plans to offer 3 investment opportunities to establish 3 oil production complexes at an investment cost of USD321 million.The Egyptian-Kuwaiti Economic Forum will start today, in the presence of Egyptian and Kuwaiti businessmen.Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund has acquired a 34% stake in BTECH from DPI, which had acquired this stake back in July 2016 for USD35 mn.EGAL reduced its selling prices in the local market by an average of EGP3,700 per ton for the month of October, in light of the decline in global prices by USD200 per ton in September and August and the average FX rate over the same period. The General Authority for Land and Dry Ports will receive technical proposals from 'Special Group' alliance to manage and operate Damietta dry port this month.   
Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis

2022-10-0202:36

- Market Overview- COMI- ESRS- ABUK- AMOC- FWRY- PHDC- SKPC- SWDY Prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe
Pre-Trading Thoughts

Pre-Trading Thoughts

2022-10-0203:33

Minister of Planning noted that real GDP growth in Egypt reached 6.6% in FY21/22.The market is anticipating the release of large quantities of imported strategic commodities from Egyptian ports, including feed (corn and soybeans), to increase the supply in the market and limit the successive price increases.A Russian wheat shipment of 42k tons is scheduled to arrive at Alexandria port today.Ministry of Supply has raised the prices of oil sold through ministry outlets to EGP25/800 ml, up from EGP23.  Qalaa Holdings reported 2Q22 net profit after minority came in at EGP362 million compared to a net loss of EGP401 million in 2Q21. 1H22 bottom line recorded a net loss of EGP223 million, which is narrower than the net loss of EGP880 million in 1H21. Impressive performance at ERC with refining margins averaged USD5.4 million per day compared to USD2.7 million/day in 1Q22. 2. Better sales volumes at Taqa Arabia. EKHO BoD has approved a treasury buyback program for up to 20 million shares or 1.5% of the company. SODIC intends to expand locally by launching new projects, acquiring land plots from the Urban Communities Authority, or through acquisitions. Management decided not to acquire MNHD.Passenger car sales dropped 53% y-o-y in August to just 8.7k vehicles as the market continues to struggle with barriers to imports. YTD, PC sales went down 20% YoY to 110k.HRHO's leasing and factoring arm Corp-Solutions concluded EGP2 bn securitized bond issuance on Thursday. EAST BoD agreed to distribute dividends of EGP1.60/share implying a payout ratio of 89% and a dividend yield of 15.5%.BTech’s number of stores reached 143 and management plans to open 10 more stores before the end of 2022. The company is in negotiations with serval parties to acquire a 34% stake of its shares since a UK fund plans to exit.
Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis

2022-09-2901:35

Market Overview COMIESRSFWRYHELIMNHDprepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe
Pre-Trading Thoughts

Pre-Trading Thoughts

2022-09-2904:37

The Central Bank held a meeting with the directors of treasury and money management in banks, to discuss a proposal related to the possibility of launching high-interest savings certificates on the dollar (at 3% interest rate) targeting Egyptians abroad. Egypt’s economic conference will take place on October 23-25, where Ministers will get together with senior members of the business community.Europe’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) purchases this winter could rise as much as 40% y-o-y to compensate for a complete cut-off of Russian imports. Italy resorted to Egypt and Algeria to make up for the forgone natural gas supply coming into the country from Russia.The Tax Authority is close to finishing legal amendments to raise the personal income tax exemption threshold and introduce new EGX tax breaks including amending the tax treatment of investment funds. The French Agency allocated EUR 200-250 million annually for Egypt until 2025, to implement community development projects.In cooperation with the World Food Program, Egypt succeeded in concluding a debt swap of USD114 million through 7 programs, in order to implement projects in the field of food security.Saudi fintech platform Sanad Cash wants to acquire 60% of crisis-stricken B2B e-commerce startup Capiter.The government’s automotive committee held its first meeting yesterday headed by Prime Minister. AUTO is planning to locally assemble Changan and Haval to reach 4 brands locally assembled along with Hyundai and Cherry. ORAS confirmed that it has signed an agreement to build, own and operate a strategic warehouse in Fayoum. Project value is EGP1 billion over 15 months. SWDY’s board of directors approved extending the purchase of treasury shares till January 15, 2023, and reaching the maximum amount of 30 million shares (representing 1.4% of total shares). SPMD released 1H22 standalone net loss of EGP70.6 mn in 1H22, versus EGP108.1 mn of profits in 1H21. Bottom line recorded a loss of EGP36.9 mn in 2Q22, versus net profit of EGP78.9 mn in 2Q21. ETRS denied receiving an acquisition offer at EGP4.50 per share. The company disclosed that it is looking into the possibility of acquiring a company operating in a complementary field.Raya Trade, a subsidiary of RAYA, reached 63 stores with a plan to reach 70 stores by the end of 2022. The company plans to expand into 10 new governorates next year.HRHO’S consumer finance arm valU will offer payment solutions on new memberships for Heliopolis Sporting Club at El Shorouk City.Aman, a subsidiary of RAYA, received additional EGP100 million in financing from CIB, directed towards microfinancing. 
Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis

2022-09-2801:47

- Market Overview- COMI- AUTO- MNHD-  HELI- PHDC- Prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe
Pre-Trading Thoughts

Pre-Trading Thoughts

2022-09-2804:53

Import challenges facing manufacturers should be resolved within two months, El Sisi said.Egypt received 4.9 million tourists in 1H2022, compared to 2.6 million tourists in 1H2021. This points to tourism revenues of USD10 billion in 2022. The pre-offering fund of the Sovereign Fund of Egypt has started to list and acquire the assets that it plans to offer to strategic investors before the public offering, worth USD5-6 billion.The Egyptian Association of Fertilizers Dealers and Distributors submitted a request to the cabinet demanding that the fertilizer subsidy be limited to only 7 strategic crops, along with the transition to cash subsidies.  Petrochemical Holding Company is finalizing the feasibility studies for El Alamein Petrochemical Complex, which will produce 3 million tons per year of specialized petrochemical products, with investment cost of USD6.7 billion for the first phase.The Russian company, Krastsvetmet, is studying the establishment of a fertilizer complex in The Suez Canal Economic Zone. The Land and Dry Ports Authority aims to attract investments worth USD350 million for the Tenth of Ramadan dry port project. Several consortiums including SWDY and the Abu Dhabi Ports Alliance - ORAS are bidding for the project. The winning bid will be settled within 3 months.The Supply Ministry signed yesterday EGP 12 bn in final contracts with Hassan Allam, ORAS, and Samcrete for the construction of four warehouses for commodity storage.MNHD signed a partnership agreement with Asten College to establish the first international school in Taj City.EMFD awarded a EGP560.0 million contract for the construction of 195 offices in Cairo Gate.Around 3.5 mn homes in c. 5k Egyptian villages are set to get access to high-speed internet, under the Hayah Karima initiative. (ETEL)Emirati education provider Bloom Education is partnering with two local firms to establish a new international school New Giza. More than EGP 1.5 bn will be invested in the project.Aeroflot is resuming regular flights from Moscow to Sharm El Sheikh and Hurghada starting 1 October.Aman has allocated EGP 60 mn to Islamic finance and EGP 10 mn to nano finance in an initial phase.  B2B logistics marketplace Trella has inked an agreement with CNFN designed to give it and the carriers it works with the access to finance. The alliance of “Lime Vest Partners” and “Tawasol Holdings Investments” acquired about 70% of the shares of AMES at EGP49 per share.MHOT declared EGP3.00/share cash dividends (DY of 10.4%). Record date is 11 October 2022. Distribution date is 16 October 2022.
Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis

2022-09-2702:20

Market OverviewABUKAUTOCCAPHELIORHDUASGSKPCDSCWELSHPrepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe
Pre-Trading Thoughts

Pre-Trading Thoughts

2022-09-2704:57

Enterprise reported that the government has formed a new council of economic advisors, adding that the council will see prominent members of the business community that can provide support to the government through our current challenges.The government aims to go ahead with the listing of “Wataneya” and “Safi” before the end of this year.Minister of Planning said that the government is about to approve an incentive package to localize several industries, with the details to be announced before mid-October.Ministry of Supply is signing contracts for the construction of the first phase of strategic warehouses, to raise storage capacities from the strategic commodity reserve to 9 months instead of only 6 months.Minister of Petroleum revealed that there are good exploration prospects in the Red Sea region, which will boost the oil reserves by 15 million barrels.SWDY has secured EGP 2 bn in Islamic financing at a 3-year tenor with an interest rate of 8%. CIRA’s Cairo Saxony University inked an agreement with the International Dental Institute to roll out a dental program at the university.GB Capital and EFG Hermes released an update on Kaf, the rebranded life insurance company which saw its customer base jump from 100 thousand at acquisition to a current 2 mn.OIH participated with a 40% stake in the establishment of Afrigate Company for Marketing and Commercial Mediation, with an issued capital of EGP150 million (EGP0.01/OIH share).SPMD's board decided to approve the closure of its drive-through branches on September 30th.Tawasol Holding objected to Anderson's valuation for AMES, due to material errors.Pickalbatros Hotels is opening a 318-room hotel in Hurghada at the end of September 2022, a 1,550-room hotel in Hurghada in October 2022, and a 1,000-room hotel in Marsa Alam in February 2023.Weekly Commodities UpdateBrent, USD/bbl            85.3     -3.8%Diesel-HSFO Spread, USD/ton          583.1   3.7%Egypt Urea, USD/ton  850.0   0.0%Polyethylene, USD/ton           1,150.0            0.0%Polypropylene, USD/ton         1,025.0            1.0%Steel/Iron Ore Spreads, USD/ton       474.2   4.0%LME Aluminum Cash Price, USD/ton 2,148.1            -4.0%Egyptian Retail Cement, EGP/ton      1,445.0            0.0%Steam Coal, USD/ton 435.2   -0.9%Crude Palm Oil, USD/MT       762.8   -3.9%SMP, USD/MT            3,547.0            -0.8%
Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis

2022-09-2602:09

- Market Overview- ABUK- HRHO- MFPC- MNHD- SWDY -POUL- Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe 
Pre-Trading Thoughts

Pre-Trading Thoughts

2022-09-2603:23

The Madbouly government expects to raise as much as USD 6 bn by selling stakes in state-owned assets by mid-2023, Planning Minister said. Egypt's liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports reached USD 8 bn in FY21/22/. The government will target USD 8.5–10 bn in natural gas revenues in FY22/23.Egypt is targeting digital exports of USD5.5 billion in FY22/23 (+13% YoY).The Ministry of Electricity is looking at the new electricity tariffs and is developing scenarios for the deferred price movements, in light of the exchange rate and the price of natural gas.GB Auto is aiming to start production in their new factory in Sadat City before the end of 2023. GB Auto is offering its customers who booked unavailable passenger cars a replacement option or refunds.Al Nasr Automotive is comparing between two partnerships (Indian & Japanese) offers to manufacture the electric TukTuk with an annual capacity of 50 thousand units annually.Aldar Properties is looking at the New Administrative Capital for potential investment opportunities.Saudi Jamjoom Pharma will open a pharmaceutical factory in Egypt with a value of EGP1.0 billion at the end of the year.FRA highlighted that microfinance lending has reached EGP3.33 billion in the first half of 2022, reflecting an annual increase of 45.3%. Consumer finance increased by 10.18% YoY, to reach EGP16.43 billion by the end of June 2022.ABUK approved a DPS of EGP3.00/share (DY of 12.3%). The first installment of EGP1.00/share with a distribution date of 20/10/2022. The second installment of EGP2.00/share with a distribution date of 29/12/2022.AMOC approved a DPS of EGP0.55/share (DY 13.4%). The first installment of EGP0.30/share with a distribution date of 20/10/2022. The second installment of EGP0.25/share with a distribution date of 22/02/2023.RAKT intends to pump EGP700 million to renovate its production lines in Alexandria in FY22/23. The total investment cost of the renovation project is EGP1.5 billion.A Spanish investor joined the alliance of Madkour Group and Ocean Express, to manage and operate Damietta's dry port at an estimated cost of EGP2 billion. 
Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis

2022-09-2502:20

- Market Overview- ABUK- AMOC- CCAP- FWRY- SKPC- ORAS- HELI- HDBK- Prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe
Pre-Trading Thoughts

Pre-Trading Thoughts

2022-09-2505:13

Matching our projections, MPC decided to keep rates unchanged.  The CBE also decided to increase the required reserve ratio to 18% from 14% on deposits held in local currency with a maturity of less than 3 years. The required reserve ratio on foreign currency deposits remains the same at 10%.  Positive impact on economy but banks will bear the cost. Banks with higher a higher deposit base whose maturity is less than 3 years and whose local currency deposit base is quite high will be more impacted by the decision. HDBK most impacted.Minister of Finance: It could take another month or two to finalize IMF funding. The size of the funding will only be decided in the final stages of negotiations. Egypt is looking to China and Japan for new avenues to raise foreign currency funding at a reasonable cost. Targeted funding is around USD500 million from each country. The government is also looking at the possibility of issuing a green Eurobond if market conditions allow.  The government is still looking to hedge against commodities but will wait for the markets to cool further.  The government has finalized its state ownership policy ahead of the economic conference that is being planned for the end of this month. EFIC intends to acquire 100 feddan land to build its new compound fertilizers project with an investment cost of USD500 million. Ministry of Transport received two offers to establish a new company to manage and transport goods via railways. The first was submitted by a consortium comprising ElSewedy-Al-Gharabli Contracting, while the second was submitted by Citadel Investment Group.OCDI is studying investment opportunities such as land acquisitions or company acquisitions and expects FY22 sales to exceed its EGP14.0 billion target.EMFD received bank approval for credit facilities of EGP2.0 billion.EGBE is planning to invest EGP2 bn in non-banking financial companies over the next 3 years, where the bank will acquire direct and indirect stakes in several companies in the sector.HRHO has invested USD50 million in startups since the beginning of 2022, through the venture capital accelerator EV-EFG.Around 11 new marinas for tourist yachts could be set up on the Mediterranean and Red Sea coasts.Suez Canal Economic Zone Authority expects the first phase of the EGP1.5 bn Abbas Berth to start operating in West Port Said port in October 2022. 
Pre-Trading Thoughts

Pre-Trading Thoughts

2022-09-2204:58

Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 bps, raising rates by 300 bps since the start of 2022. Egypt's MPC committee meets today, and we hope rates would be maintained, taking into account cost-push inflation, commodity prices cooling down, the fiscal deficit, and economic growth. Our projection comes against consensus expectations for a 200 bps rate hike. Sodic is currently not looking to acquire MNHD and is looking at other investment opportunities.HELI plans to invest EGP297.0 million in 2H22 and EGP403.0 million in FY23, and expects revenue of EGP328.0 million in 2H22 and EGP872.0 million in FY23. HELI is preparing to award the construction contract for the construction of the first phase of New Heliopolis, is planning to self-finance its projects in the coming period with no plans to resort to non-bank nor bank financing, HELI has not received acquisition offers on the company.MNHD launched units in Elect and Kinda in Taj City as part of the Cityscape Exhibition, offering payment plans of up to eight years.MNHD is studying investment opportunities on the North Coast, is planning a securitization issuance this year, is aiming to award EGP3.0 billion in construction contracts in FY22MNHD raised real estate unit selling prices by 5-7% during 2022.EAST released FY21/22 bottom line for the year recorded EGP4,030 mn compared to EGP4,280 mn in the previous period, down by 6% YoY. 4Q21/22 bottom line for the quarter came in the red, recording losses of EGP222 mn due to non-recurring tax settlement expenses, whose value is not disclosed yet.  EAST is currently trading at a FY22/23 P/E of 5.0x and an EV/EBITDA of 3.1x.EAST declared in a release the rise in two of their local brands' prices Pall Mall and Viceroy to reach EGP31/pack, effective yesterday.Expedition Investment executed the DOMT (FV: EGP6.00, OW) tender offer, acquiring a 32.9% stake (93.0 mn shares) for EGP 511.6 mn.BINV has approved Giza Systems’ fair value study which values Giza Systems at EGP4.90/BINV share. The offer values Giza Systems at EGP4.00-4.85/ BINV share, after relevant deductions. Pharmaceutical and nutritional supplement producing companies held a meeting yesterday to discuss the impact of the EDA decision regarding the cancellation of licenses for the production of nutritional supplements issued by the Food Safety Authority.Anderson values AMES at EGP821.8 million (EGP52.8 per share), 8% above Tawasol- LimeVest offer and 8.6% above Yas Holding offer. 
Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis

2022-09-2102:38

Market Overview Prepared by: Mohamed Othman- CETA, CFTe
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