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© 2024 Bondcast - The Rates Podcast
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In this weekly podcast series, Imogen Bachra along with the NatWest Markets team of rates & markets specialists help investment professionals shape their portfolio views on fixed income, learn how the biggest themes, trends, and events affect bond performance, and get deeper insight into rates markets including the latest analysis & research from the NatWest team.
134 Episodes
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With inflation now at its target, what were the prospects that the Bank of England would cut its base rate? Not much, according to Imogen Bachra and Joann Spadigam, who this week look at both the reasons for a hold, and whether the Monetary Policy Committee is becoming just a bit more dovish. Hint: it is. Away from the UK, they cover elections in France and Germany’s Q3 funding update. This episode was recorded on 20 June '24. For any terms used please read our glossary. Please view our...
This week Imogen Bachra is joined by Deepika Dayal and Joann Spadigam to talk all things bonds. From the political backdrop affecting market confidence to the details of dot plots, the trio cover major developments in the US, the UK and the eurozone. This episode was recorded on 13 June '24. For any terms used please read our glossary. Please view our full disclaimer here.
At 25bps the European Central Bank’s (ECB) first interest cut may not have been the deepest, but the ECB is still ahead of the Fed and the Bank of England in its easing cycle. Looking to the prospects of further cuts in the year, Joann Spadigam and Kevin Cummins go beyond Europe and focus on how the Fed is being guided by data.This episode was recorded on 6 June 2024.For any terms used please refer to our glossary.Please view our full disclaimer here.
This week Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Kevin Cummins to discuss major bond markets. High on the agenda is what to expect in the run up to a likely cut in rates next week by the European Central Bank. They also discuss how elections are shaping rates markets and ask why quantitative tightening is a growing topic. This episode was recorded on 30 May 2024.For any terms used please refer to our glossary.Please view our full disclaimer here.
This week host Imogen Bachra is again joined by Deepika Dayal and Giovanni Zanni to discuss not just rates, but how political developments in the UK and Europe are affecting markets. In the UK, the starting gun has fired for a July general election, while in the EU, parliamentary elections are also looming. Away from the ballot box, it's starting to feel like monetary Groundhog Day: stronger than expected print data looks likely to keep rates higher for longer.Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘...
This week host Imogen Bachra is joined by Deepika Dayal and Giovanni Zanni to discuss all things rates. In the US, how does the Fed's preferred inflation gauge compare with retail sales prints? Elsewhere, markets are contending with some important jobs data in the UK, while in Europe, what could derail a rate cut in June? Very little, it seems. Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast as soon as they’re available. This epi...
This week, Imogen Bachra, Joann Spadigam, and John Briggs discuss how markets are digesting this week’s ‘dovish hold’ from the Bank of England, and the pace of UK monetary policy easing in the months ahead. They also share their thoughts on monetary policy divergence across regions and the impact on bond markets.Remember to hit ''follow' so you can listen to our latest episodes as soon as they’re available – and hit the ‘like’ button so it’s easier for others to find. And if you have any ques...
This week host Imogen Bachra is joined by Kevin Cummins and Joann Spadigam to discuss how major central banks are approaching monetary policy. In the US, the Fed held rates and expectations for a cut are further adapting to strong inflation data. The picture is quite different in Europe, while in the UK, all eyes are on the Bank of England's next meeting. Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast as soon as they’re available.&nbs...
This week Imogen Bachra, John Briggs and Joann Spadigam discuss market surprises, with strong inflation in the US, strong purchasing manager sentiment in Europe and a strong suggestion from the Bank of England's Huw Pill that UK rates may not fall before June. Aside from the immediate figures and updates, they discuss supply, long-term debt qualms and who's led by the Fed. Remember to hit 'follow' so you can listen to our latest episodes as soon as they’re available – and hit the ...
This week host Imogen Bachra is joined by John Briggs and Joann Spadigam to discuss bond market movements. With scant evidence of grand disinflation in the US, the panel ask whether the Fed may cut rates at all this year, and what the markets may price in. In the UK, what should we make of recent inflation data which contained upside surprises, while in Europe, how acceptable are Italian and French national debt levels? Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen t...
This week host Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Deepika Dayal to pick over recent developments in bond markets. Much of the focus this week was on developments in the US, where higher than expected inflation is thwarting the Fed’s scope to cute rate this summer (we’ve revised our forecasts). Quite what this means for policies in Europe and the UK is uncertain, but divergence is the watchword. Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the la...
This week host Joann Spadigam and Kevin Cummins review their expectations for central bank rate cuts later this year. While economic data have surprised in the US, they don't think it's enough to dramatically change the Fed's position. But with more data on the way, it's a case of wait and see. In Europe, the broad inflation news is in line with the European Central Bank's expectations, and an April cut still seems unlikely. Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or li...
This week host Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Kevin Cummins to talk about the latest developments in the US, the UK and Europe. With rates on hold, however, there is still lots for market participants to mull over from recent central bank updates, as the risks of inflation persist. June is still on the table for the Fed's first rate cut, while at the Bank of England no member of the Monetary Policy Committee voted for a rate hike. From Europe, we hear about what clients have to...
This week Imogen Bachra and Jan Nevruzi dissect US inflation figures and look ahead to a Fed meeting that promises an update on Quantitative Tightening policy, among other things. Will it be enough to upset the relative calm of late and move markets? They also analyse what may happen next week in the UK and look at whether the European Central Bank is still expected to cut rates in June. Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode ...
This week Imogen Bachra, Joann Spadigam and Jan Nevruzi share key takeaways from recent events in the UK, Europe and the US. At the European Central Bank, did new inflation figures give a better indication of when it might cut rates? In the UK, a predictable Spring Budget yielded little drama for markets, while in the US Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified in front of Congress. Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast...
This week Joann Spadigam and Jan Nevruzi are joined by special guest Ross Walker to look ahead to the UK Spring Budget on 6 March. While Chancellor Jeremy Hunt may decide to reduce some taxes, the country's modest fiscal headroom means there is little likelihood of a dramatic financial policy change. Elsewhere, they discuss personal consumption expenditure data in the US, and inflation figures from Europe. Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to...
This week host Imogen Bachra and Joann Spadigam discuss their views on policy developments in UK and European bond markets. In the former, fiscal headroom may not have a dramatic affect on gilt issuances, even as the market is becoming more retail friendly. In Europe, the European Central Bank is growing wary of cutting rates too early, while PMI data suggests a deviation between German and France economic expectations. And how are retail issuances performing in Italy? Remember to...
In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi and Joann Spadigam debrief after a big data week in the UK and US and discuss the impact on our rates outlook. They also take a closer look at some new thinking published this week around the ECB’s operational framework. Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast as soon as they’re available. NB: This was recorded on 15 February 2024. ...
This week Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi and Joann Spadigam discuss how their views on the market differ from the businesses they have been speaking with recently. In the UK, the data appears to support our modestly hawkish view, while in the US non-farm payroll data suggests the Fed will hold rates for now. In Europe, could French sovereign spreads be too tight, and Spanish too wide? For Italy, it's all about risk. Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or li...
Major central banks have been somewhat taciturn about the prospect of rate cutting, so did that change during the past week? Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi and Joann Spadigam analyse recent events, data and market views in a week when the Fed and the Bank of England held rates - and explained their decisions to do so. In Europe, inflation appears to be falling faster than the European Central Bank's projections suggested, while German and Italian syndications caught many by surprise. Might Spain ...
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