Future Commerce

Selling online has never been more expensive. Cheap channels are saturated, factory and freight costs have climbed, and ad platforms keep getting better at extracting margin from brands. For a lean DTC brand in 2026, the old math simply doesn’t math.Ecommerce economics are broken. Dave Stickland, Co-Founder and President of Popsmith, joins Phillip and Brian to share how he rebuilt Popsmith’s marketing from the garage up. Dave explains how agentic AI tools take his ad creative from concept to live in 24 hours, why AI slop is a skill issue, and why the next generation of agencies and creative strategists will be paid for vision, not execution.Chasing A Frontierless FutureKey takeaways:There’s no more frontier for DTC brands. A decade ago, subsidized Amazon fees, direct access to overseas factories, and cheap paid social made healthy margins easy. Now factories sell against brands on Amazon, factory wages have doubled, freight costs have soared since COVID, and Meta keeps getting better at extracting ad spend.Contribution margin pays for everything below the line, including agencies, freelancers, and new hires. When that margin disappears, so does the budget to grow.AI creative is still not fully autonomous, but only works with scaffolding: product renders, brand context, and a clear process.It’s time for brands to extract new value from the creative library they’ve already paid for.Agencies will be paid to advise and build SOPs, not to execute inside the software.“You either own the software or the software will own what you do.” — Dave Stickland“What AI will never be is relational.” — Dave Stickland“The data set itself is what you are paying for, not the tool.” — Dave SticklandIn-Show Mentions:Dave on X: The Math Doesn’t MathShop the popcorn popper at popsmith.comRunneth by MotionJamey Gannon’s The AI Creative Director courseFuture Commerce’s LOREGet tickets to VISIONS Summit, February 10, 2027 at MoMAAssociated Links:The Growth v. Profitability Cage Match (Infinite Shelf)DTC Theory and The Innovator’s Dilemma (Ep. 253)[DECODED] The Power of AI-Enabled AmbitionFrom Plastic to Patek: What AI and Watchmaking Have in CommonThe End of Outside: How to Future-Proof Your Career Against the AI ApocalypseOur Post-Funnel Future: Brand Ethos is the New Competitive MoatThe Final Boss of Popcorn Buckets (The Senses)Check out Future Commerce on YouTubeCheck out Future Commerce Plus for exclusive content and save on merch and printSubscribe to Insiders and The Senses to read more about what we are witnessing in the commerce worldListen to our other episodes of Future CommerceHave any questions or comments about the show? Let us know on futurecommerce.com, or reach out to us on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, or LinkedIn. We love hearing from our listeners! Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Milani Cosmetics has spent 25 years pairing prestige-quality formulas with mass-market price points. In the last five years, the indie brand doubled its business and climbed from No. 10 to No. 7 in mass color cosmetics—and it plans to double again over the next three.Jeremy Lowenstein, Chief Marketing Officer at Milani Cosmetics, joins Phillip and Brian to talk about the brand’s latest marketing movement, What’s Inside Is Everything, which emphasizes community, authenticity, and quality. He explains how pop-ups and creator partnerships bring the brand to life beyond its 25,000+ stores, and how to maintain brand relevance and consumer connection in a market driven largely by celebrity and influencer endorsements.Prestige Formulas, Mass PricesKey takeaways:What’s Inside Is Everything is a 360-degree brand platform rather than a one-off campaign, anchoring all of Milani’s messaging since January 2026 in the quality of ingredients.Milani brings customers into the Baked Blush creation process; the cult-classic product is hand-piped onto terracotta tiles in Italy.Milani defines its core customer by life stage, not generation. The Milani consumer is a young but established adult with disposable income, who is ready to settle down with quality products they can use long-term. Milani positions itself to receive consumers when they are ready to commit to a brand, rather than leaning into generational stereotypes and chasing fleeting trends that other brands scramble for. “Someone who is Gen Z now will also eventually also become a 38-year-old.” –– Jeremy Lowenstein“It’s easy to start a brand in beauty. It’s hard to stay in it.” — Jeremy Lowenstein“We’re not here to help you change who you are. We’re here to help you reveal what you think is your best self.” — Jeremy Lowenstein“The funnel’s not dead. The funnel just looks different. It basically looks like spaghetti now, and it takes you all over the place.” — Jeremy Lowenstein“Everyone thinks [TikTok Shop] is net new. It’s basically QVC on steroids.” –– Jeremy Lowenstein“Every piece of marketing has to perform. It’s just what kind of performance are you tasking it to do?” — Jeremy LowensteinIn-Show Mentions:Watch Milani’s What’s Inside Is Everything Baked Blush filmExplore Milani’s Baked Collection at milanicosmetics.comMilani x Shelby Ann Bell pop-up at Momo Cafe in AtlantaFuture Commerce’s The Multiplayer BrandFuture Commerce’s Celebrity Brands Signal ReportConnect with Jeremy Lowenstein on LinkedInGet tickets to VISIONS Summit, February 10, 2027 at MoMAAssociated Links:What Makes Stores Worth Visiting? (Ep. 416)The Process is the ProductSqueezegate and The Dupe Economy (The Senses)Gen Z Lives in a Partnership-Based Society. Your Brand Should, Too.Beyond the Buzz: Ultimate Guide to 29 Celebrity-Backed BrandsMaintaining the Cool Factor: Scaling Your DTC Brand in Traditional ChannelsCheck out Future Commerce on YouTubeCheck out Future Commerce Plus for exclusive content and save on merch and printSubscribe to Insiders and The Senses to read more about what we are witnessing in the commerce worldListen to our other episodes of Future CommerceHave any questions or comments about the show? Let us know on futurecommerce.com, or reach out to us on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, or LinkedIn. We love hearing from our listeners! Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

DoorDash shoppers come to the app with a need, not a shopping list, and that makes them unusually loyal and unusually open to discovery. Katie Daleo, General Manager of CPG Ads at DoorDash, joins Phillip and Alicia to talk about how brands can plan for moments instead of audiences, why DoorDash pursued Alliance for Audited Media incrementality certification, and what changes when commerce media is measured on orders and intent instead of impressions.Plus, we dig into the newly launched Brand Center, which turns what Dashers see on the shelf into real-time availability and substitution data, why brand and performance marketing are converging again, and why Katie sees DoorDash as "local commerce at scale."The Moment Is the New DemographicKey takeaways:DoorDash's incremental ROAS methodology earned AAM incrementality certification, and Katie says partners are seeing 30%+ incremental sales lift on average.Discovery is up for grabs. In some categories, unbranded DoorDash searches (think: "beer") drive 10% of orders, so brands have to win the shopper who hasn't picked a brand yet.Videos under six seconds perform best, and placement matters: what works on the homepage can get in the way on a product page when someone just wants to check out.The funnel collapses inside the app. Awareness, consideration, and conversion can happen in a single session, so offsite creative and in-app click-through need to work as one journey.Brand Center turns the shelf into a data source. Brands can now see on-shelf availability, which SKUs actually make it onto DoorDash, how their product content shows up, and where shoppers go when an item is substituted.Out-of-stocks are a loyalty test. Roughly 40% of shoppers ask for a refund rather than accept a substitute, which tracks with the third of shoppers who arrive with a specific item in mind."If you can find a solution that works for the consumer, it will work for the brand, in which case it will work for DoorDash." — Katie Daleo"Data is the currency we have with CPG partners." — Katie Daleo"You can now do the full funnel in like three minutes." — Katie Daleo"Any media should be showing impact, but the actual metric or the methodology may need to be different." — Katie Daleo"I think of DoorDash as a platform that allows you to do local commerce at scale." — Katie DaleoAssociated Links:Episode 474: Commerce Media's Day Two: The Agentic Shelf and the Measurement ReckoningThe Senses: The Advertising Week Mid-Week Dispatch“Vertical Dramas” and the New Era of Commerce MediaAd Infinitum: Retail Media is The Final BossEpisode 452: LIVE at Shoptalk Spring: Retail Media Confessions, Hype Cycles, and the Creator ReckoningThe Future of the Funnel (Live from K:LDN 2026)Insiders 224: Non-Determinism and the Death of Performance MarketingInsiders 238: Where Were You When the Monoculture Returned?The Senses: Quick Commerce's God ComplexEven TikTok is an Ad Network NowCheck out Future Commerce on YouTubeCheck out Future Commerce Plus for exclusive content and save on merch and printSubscribe to Insiders and The Senses to read more about what we are witnessing in the commerce worldListen to our other episodes of Future CommerceHave any questions or comments about the show? Let us know on futurecommerce.com, or reach out to us on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, or LinkedIn. We love hearing from our listeners!  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Halloween is now America’s second-largest consumer holiday, surpassing Thanksgiving and New Year’s Day in total spend, especially in categories like home decor. From the high street, the UK is catching up fast due to the rise of community-driven events, third spaces, and niche internet communities.Melissa Minkow, Global Director of Retail Strategy & Insights at CI&T, joins Phillip and Alicia from London to share what Halloween looks like on the other side of the Atlantic. Melissa explains why UK Halloween is getting “Americanized,” how algorithms shape our real-world rituals, and why fandom keeps stretching the season.Spooky Season Goes GlobalKey takeaways:UK Halloween spend is expected to hit £705M, driven mostly by Gen Z and millennials. Meanwhile, US Halloween spend is projected to reach $13.5B, with households spending an average of $285. UK Halloween isn’t a carbon copy of America’s. In the UK, community lives in third spaces like pubs and transit, not front porches.The retail calendar is stretching earlier, largely driven by fandoms inflating moments into months of licensing, drops, and ticketed events.“People want the moment when it is the moment.” — Melissa Minkow“There’s no temperance in the algorithm.” — Phillip Jackson“I have often wondered… if I ever was actually a sneakerhead or if performance marketing and algorithms made me one.” — Phillip JacksonIn-Show Mentions:Catch up on Ep. 484: Aubrey Horowitz of Home Depot, “We Plan Halloween 3 Years in Advance”Deloitte’s 2026 Halloween surveyTreatonomics: Morning Consult x Hershey’s research on the new Halloween calendarChanté Joseph, “Is Having a Boyfriend Embarrassing Now?” (Vogue)Kate Berlant on Good HangShoshana Zuboff, The Age of Surveillance CapitalismGet tickets to VISIONS Summit, February 10, 2027 at MoMAAssociated Links:Spooky Commerce: What Halloween Shopping Trends Tell Us About Modern CultureConsumers are Overindulging on Halloween. Disney is Meeting the Moment.Aug-tober is Here (The Senses)Memory Morphing: How Media Reshapes Recall and Taints Nostalgia (Ep. 334)Where Were You When the Monoculture Returned?Check out Future Commerce on YouTubeCheck out Future Commerce Plus for exclusive content and save on merch and printSubscribe to Insiders and The Senses to read more about what we are witnessing in the commerce worldListen to our other episodes of Future CommerceHave any questions or comments about the show? Let us know on futurecommerce.com, or reach out to us on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, or LinkedIn. We love hearing from our listeners!  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

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