Macro Minutes

Lula shocked Brazil – BRL is still reeling. Israel's votes are in – no winner yet. South Africa passed the budget test – local elections are next. And year-end seasonality? Right around the corner.Participants:Abbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro StrategistDaria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), FX StrategistLuis Estrada (Desk Strategy), LATAM FX Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Interesting factoid - the Canadian stock market has outperformed the S&P and Nasdaq over the last year and has similar performance YTD. Who would have thought, without the AI driver and with tariffs and trade policy uncertainty. Listen to this episode to hear from Sara Mahaffy who recently launched her flagship Canadian Compass report. Sara unpacks what has happened to Canadian stocks, the fundamentals at the index and sector level, and what to expect going forward.Participants:Sara Mahaffy (Research), Head of Canadian Equity Strategy & Global Sustainability Strategy ResearchJason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

A broad tour of global FX markets spanning Asia, G10, and LatAm, covering key currency trades, positioning, and central bank divergence. The discussion highlights major risks into year-end, including an AI-trade pullback, China trade tensions, US Treasury moves, and political uncertainty in Brazil.Participants:Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Global Head of FX Strategy & Head of EMEA Institutional FX SalesAbbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro StrategistLuis Estrada (Desk Strategy), LATAM FX Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

There has been a substantial widening of spreads in the European bond markets. While the epicentre is in the French bond market, it seems to have morphed from a French idiosyncratic problem to a broader one, a problem that comes on top of a whole list of issues and specifically on top of the energy crisis that is still unresolved. Participants:Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsGeorge Moran (Desk Strategy), European EconomistMegum Muhic (Desk Strategy), UK Rates Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Bond yields have spiked globally led by an inter-related combination of oil prices and re-pricing of central bank terminal rates. Momentum and investors exiting long exposure has added fuel to the fire. To put it in context, the one-month increase in US 2y yields is one of the largest over the past 25 years. This has pushed up long term rates and flattened the curve. These dynamics haven’t been isolated to the US market; it is a global phenomenon. For now, risk asset such as equities and credit has been well behaved, but history shows when rates rise sharply and there is an accompanying exogenous shock like oil, that small cracks in macro or markets can grow.Participants:Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyJason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts