The Weekly Insight

The start of April hasn’t been fun (which seems like a silly thing to write on Tax Day…is it ever fun?). More stress about inflation.  War clouds looming in the Middle East. This is one of those moments when things in the market can start to feel scary.  But just how bad has it been?  And what kind of impact are these issues starting to have on the market?Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-deep-breaths/

The market had one of its worst weeks of the year last week. And the why was familiar – even if it was something we were hoping to have behind us. The economic news we received was just a bit too good for investors liking. PMI data, GDP expectations, and jobs data all combined to raise concerns that the Fed won’t be cutting interest rates.Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-a-sometimes-bubbly-path/

We’ve had a lot of different devils on our back the last four years: COVID, inflation, bear markets, etc., etc. Which is likely why this moment feels a bit…weird. As we enter a fairly unassuming earnings season (3.6% growth in earnings expected), there just isn’t a big problem lurking around the corner…yet. Will that leave us some runway for the next month or two? Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-devil-on-your-back/

It was Fed Week last week. And it was almost a non-event. Powell & Co. didn’t change the expected path of rate cuts, and the market responded well with the S&P 500 closing the week above 5,200 for the first time ever.  But there was another discussion buried below the headlines: what the Fed is going to do with its balance sheet holdings? This is an important, if not regularly discussed, topic.Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-slowing-the-run-off/

For the last two years, every move the Federal Reserve makes has had a direct correlation to the performance of the stock market.  This week’s Fed meeting may be no different, but some interesting things happened last week which showed the market is moving away from the Fed as the sole determinate of success or failure.Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-moving-on-from-the-fed/

The biggest news last week wasn’t economic, it was political. The starting gun has been fired on what will be one of the…strangest…Presidential campaigns in recent memory. And the shape of this race between two Presidents is going to impact markets, especially as we get into the summer and early fall.  Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-and-so-it-begins/

Another strong week in the market – and a great start to the year – gives us a little room to look further out into the future. And there is one $34 trillion long-term problem that causes us heartburn: the national debt. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-its-time-for-a-tough-conversation/

We heard from two of the most prominent voices in finance last week: Chairman Powell (via the FOMC Minutes) and Warren Buffett (via his annual shareholder letter).  It was a very good reminder of why the debates about things like “when will the Fed cut rates” are important – but not in the big picture.  Mr. Buffett’s long history has some valuable insights into how we can be better investors. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-minutes-hours-days-and-years/

We’ve talked for weeks now about the differences between the Fed’s preferred path on rate cuts and the market’s belief of what they will do. As a refresher, the Fed announced in December they believed they would cut rates three times in 2024. The market had a different view. The consensus at the time was the Fed would start rate cuts in March and would cut a total of seven times in 2024. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/politics-and-the-fed/

Fed Week is behind us and it’s clear we’re going to be waiting on rate cuts for a bit.  Powell quietly admitted we were right last week: the Fed’s key motivation is fear of being wrong.  But somehow the market ended the week up strongly. Why? Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-no-cuts-coming/

It’s Fed week again.  And while the reason has changed (when to cut rates vs. how high to raise them), what they say will have an impact on markets. And just like investors, their fears can impact their decision making.Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-fear-at-the-fed/

Equity markets hit an all-time high on Friday (and are continuing the positive direction this week). If you’re like us, that leads to the question of where is it going next? Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-a-yul-brynner-record/

Inflation was back in the news last week with the latest CPI data. In this edition of the Weekly Insight Memo and Weekly Insight Podcast, we look at what that report said and what it might mean for the market as we head into the new year. How did it change the “consensus” opinion for what will happen to interest rates? And most importantly, what happens if that consensus is wrong? This may be a topic we talk a lot about this year!Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-what-if-the-consensus-is-wrong/

Last week was a rough start to the year with the S&P 500 down 1.52%. But what does that mean? Is a bad first week a harbinger of bad things to come? Have there been any significant changes in the expectations for the market or the economy in 2024? Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-a-slow-start/

The New Year is an excellent time to take stock of things. How did last year go? What are the concerns and opportunities in the year ahead. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-2024-concerns-and-opportunities/

Christmas came early in the stock market last week. Old Saint Jerome and his merry band of elves decided it was time to start handing out presents. And boy did they. The latest report from the Fed has the markets feeling optimistic as we head into the end of the year.Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-old-saint-jerome/

Perspective is an important thing. And even the smartest people in the world can fall victim to losing it. Take, for example, the Doomsday Clock. Set by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, it is supposed to provide scientific assessment of how close the world is to Armageddon. And today it’s set the closest we’ve ever been to midnight. We would argue those scientists have lost a bit of perspective.The same goes for the markets and the economy.  Read more here:  https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-doom/

The end of the year will be here before we know it. Are you ready? In this edition of the Weekly Insight Podcast, we address some of the important year-end planning items you should be thinking about in December. And we also take a look at what just may be the last big hurdle to ending the year on a positive note. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-racing-toward-the-finish/

If you have a view about the economy, there is a data set that backs it up. Optimistic? Look at earnings and wage growth! Pessimistic? Inflation and Fed policy! But in the end, there are a few really big things that matter. And the biggest of all is the health of the consumer. There is no better snapshot of the consumer than Black Friday. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-consumers-not-done-yet/

Market sentiment is a fickle thing.  And there is no question that we want to be on the right side of that sentiment when things are humming along.  But there’s risk in joining the herd, especially when there is perceived certainty about the outcome.  This week we take a look at where certainty is popping up in the market (Fed policy) and why that should be a reminder to keep our heads on a swivel.Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-absolute-certainty/