The Weekly Insight

One down, one to go. Washington walked us right up to the edge of a default debacle, but, in an extraordinary showing of bipartisanship, passed a debt ceiling deal that avoided catastrophe (and ensured we don’t have to worry about it again until 2025).So now we’re on to the next problem: is the Fed done raising rates? We take a look at what’s coming for the Fed meeting next week.Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-this-close/

The debt ceiling debate continues to be the driver for market messaging this week. But there is some uncertainty of just how urgent the deadline is. And once – if – we get a resolution, there are some promising signs on the other side. Read more here:  https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-x-date/

It was CPI week last week – and the results were solid. But the media shifted its focus to a different inflation gauge: “Super Core” inflation. What does it mean? And why is it important? Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-super-core/

It was Fed week again. And again, the market’s initial response to Chairman Powell’s comments was…less than optimistic.  But a funny thing happened after the meeting.  Folks started to understand that the likelihood of a “pause” in rate hikes is real.  And Powell’s optimism on the economy seeped into the market on Friday. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-cleared-for-landing/

Last week was a fairly uneventful week in the market as the world waits for the results of the upcoming FOMC meeting (this Wednesday).  So in this week’s edition of the Weekly Insight Podcast, we take the opportunity to look at the debate over the debt ceiling.  This issue, while likely to be resolved, has the potential to be very damaging to our economy if the politicians screw it up. Read more here:  https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-debt-ceiling-danger/

We’re at an important inflection point for Federal Reserve interest rate policy. The meeting coming up in just 9 days may be the most important of the whole cycle and the market is on edge about what the Fed will do next. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-true-hope-vs-false-hope/

Wrapping up something like one of the quickest rises in interest rate policy in history was never going to be easy. But last week we started to see some of the most visible cracks amongst FOMC members on the correct path moving forward.  What does this mean for markets over the coming weeks and months?Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-some-vs-several/

It was a relatively quiet holiday week in the markets last week. We probably won’t be that lucky this week with the CPI data coming out on Wednesday. But we thought we’d take the break in the action to look at a much longer-term problem: Social Security. The trustees of the Social Security Trust Fund put out their annual analysis 10 days ago. It wasn’t pretty.Read more here:  https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-ringing-the-alarm-on-social-security/

It was a good week in the markets last week as fears of a major bank contagion subsided and continuing positive data on inflation rolled in. This pause in the "drama" gives us a chance to look into future risks and this week we look at the economic impact of the end of payment forebearance on student loans. It has the potential to be a big one. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-stumbling-blocks-student-debt/

Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-so-closeand-yet-so-far/

Read more here:  https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-loose/

It’s easy to get swept up in the news.  Last week was no different.  Chairman Powell’s comments to Congress shook expectations for interest rates.  But sometimes it is important to look back and see how trends are moving over the long-term, instead of getting wrapped up in the day-to-day.Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-wheres-the-peak-part-2/

We all have had formative experiences in our youth.  Maybe it was that first job, or successes in academics or athletics.  For the team at Insight, one of most memorable (not always in a good way!) experiences was our time working at McDonald’s.  Everyone should have to flip a burger when they’re young.  It teaches you a lot.  But what we didn’t imagine at the time was that the price of a McDonald’s cheeseburger might be able to tell us something about the economy and the markets.  Click here for the full length memo:  https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-im-lovin-it/

There was a great deal of fretting in the market last week.  Higher than expected PCE numbers, a renewed focus on Ukraine, and growing expectations of rate hikes weighed on all indices.  There is habit in the market of having a short-term bias – a focus on the latest news of the moment.  But sometimes we need to peel back the onion and look deeper.  In this week’s episode, we take a deeper look at the health of consumers and businesses – over the long-term – to see how they might be weathering the time we’re in.  We hope you’ll listen in.

Three years ago this week was the first time we wrote one of these memos. 156 weeks – and 156 memos – later, we will be the first to admit it is sometimes hard to produce a topic to talk about each week. What is important? What will you – our readers – find interesting? Over the last several years, the entire world has been consumed by creating “content”. The financial media is no different.

It has not exactly been a three-year period full of good news. It's understandable, then, when we have a good start to the year – as we have so far in 2023 – we’re all waiting for the other shoe to drop.  This week we want to dive into that “other shoe” and why, even if it does drop, we still think portfolios can have a strong recovery year.  Let’s dive in.

There have been many “post-Fed” commentaries in these pages over the last year, an indication of just how important interest rate policy has been to the market and the economy.  We’ve digested and expounded on countless Powell-isms and tried to read the tea leaves of where the Fed is going. Listen in to hear more on this week's episode.Read More:https://insightwealthgroup.com/hearing-what-we-want-to-hear/

This has been a weird start to the year.  Sentiment – at least as reported on the news – is decidedly negative.  Market performance? Just the opposite.  But the markets seem to be on path for a phenomenon which has historically indicated bullish sentiment.  We walk through that trigger – and what may be standing in its way – in this week’s edition of the Weekly Insight.Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insig…the-golden-cross/

There’s a tug of war going on with market sentiment right now. The earnings season has kicked off and – at least last week – it wasn’t pretty. But the broader economic data we’re seeing – including last week’s PMI read – keep looking better and better. The result? A choppy week in the market as neither side is coming out the victor. What is going sway this battle for momentum in the market?Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-tug-of-war/

It's been a good start to the year in the markets. But a lot of “pundits” are warning of a drop in earnings or an earnings recession. That’s a scary term – but what does it mean for market performance? Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-bad-earnings-good-markets/