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On The Market
On The Market
Author: BiggerPockets
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Stay informed so you can invest with confidence. Join Dave Meyer, James Dainard, Kathy Fettke and Henry Washington for analysis of the news and economics driving today’s real estate market.
474 Episodes
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This economy is…confusing. Inflation is still high, AI is disrupting the labor market, and consumer sentiment is nearing a 70-year floor. Meanwhile, the stock market keeps climbing, and unemployment remains around historic lows. So, what’s really happening? Are we in the clear, or is something big about to break?
J Scott is back to share his thoughts on the state of the economy and the warning signs investors can’t afford to ignore. The Fed seems to have lost much of its influence over interest rates, and bond investors aren’t buying the rhetoric that this bout of inflation is short-term. In the housing market, supply and demand have fallen, bringing transactions to a standstill—all while pre-foreclosures are slowly rising.
And that’s just the beginning. Everyone’s got one eye on AI, the wild card that could send everything spiraling. We’re unpacking the three factors that will cause the next recession, what the next six months could look like, and how investors can prepare their real estate portfolios for what comes next.
In This Episode We Cover
J Scott’s short- and long-term economic forecast
The three factors that will cause the next global recession
Why even the “strong” stock market and job market feel unstable
Where interest rates could be headed in the coming months
Why more distress is on the table for residential real estate
How real estate investors can best prepare for an economic downturn
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join BiggerPockets for FREE
Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter
Find Investor-Friendly Lenders
On the Market 432 – J Scott: We Have 1-2 Months Before the Economy Begins to Break
J Scott's BiggerPockets Profile
Dave's BiggerPockets Profile
Real Estate by the Numbers
Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-472.
Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email [email protected].
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The affordability crisis isn’t improving. Gas is above $4 per gallon, inflation just hit 3.7%, and paychecks aren’t keeping pace. This is a tough spot for the American economy, but why does it feel like we’re getting hit on all sides of the affordability spectrum? Today, I’m breaking down the American household’s affordability crisis, and whether it’s a modern spending problem or something much, much deeper.
We’re going into each lever that’s curbing affordability in the United States: wages, prices, savings rates, which generations are being hit hardest (not much of a surprise), overconsumption, and subscriptions that used to be one-time charges. I’ll also track the progress from the past three decades (2019, 2009, and 1999) to see where we went so wrong.
If you make more money than ever but are still shocked by how little you can save or how much necessities cost, you’re not alone. We’re breaking down why Americans feel so squeezed, which prices are hitting hardest, and why a pay raise (unless it’s colossal) may not be enough to solve this.
In This Episode We Cover
The affordability crisis broken down and why rising wages aren’t solving the problem
The biggest price jumps on products and services that are outpacing wages
America’s biggest failure when it comes to economically setting up the next generation
Why even the higher-income earners still feel broke in 2026’s economy
Generations that are hit the hardest by a myriad of expenses
The overconsumption and subscription traps that are keeping Americans spending
What real estate investors must do to prepare now for the affordability crisis among renters
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join BiggerPockets for FREE
Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter
Property Manager Finder
Dave's BiggerPockets Profile
On the Market 469 - A Housing Market “Recovery” Is Further Away Than We Thought
Grab the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing
Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-471.
Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email [email protected].
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Commercial real estate prices have fallen 20%-50% from their peaks just a few years ago—but the slide may not be over yet. A “second wave” of the commercial real estate crash is on the horizon now that interest rates are back around 7.5%, and struggling multifamily, office, and commercial investors who thought a long-term refinance would save them are now in a stickier spot.
So…how much lower can commercial real estate prices go?
He was right about past crashes, so we asked Brian Burke to join us again on the show for his take. Brian, quite famously by now, sold most of his multifamily portfolio at the peak of the post-COVID boom, took profits, and sat on the beach for a few years while strategizing when (and how) to get back into the market.
But even Brian isn’t convinced this is the bottom for the multifamily market—rent concessions are plentiful, lease trade-outs are negative (new renters are paying less than previous renters), and cap rates haven’t expanded enough. But the time to strike could be coming soon.
Today, Brian shares the game plan he uses to gauge when to get back into a bottoming-out market, and what buyers must do to get a great deal, great funding, and a great exit.
In This Episode We Cover
Why the commercial real estate crash may not be over yet (a “second wave” is coming)
Incoming cap rate expansion and why brokers are still pushing almost illogical multiples
The “four-way traffic collision” that caused the commercial real estate value drop
Why trying to time the bottom will cost you, but getting in a little bit late will not
What a “good” multifamily deal looks like to Brian in today’s market
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join BiggerPockets for FREE
Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter
Property Manager Finder
On The Market 440 - Commercial Real Estate Is Quietly Setting Up for a Decade-Long Bull Run
Brian's BiggerPockets Profile
Dave's BiggerPockets Profile
Praxis Capital
Grab Brian’s Book, The Hands-Off Investor
Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-470.
Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email [email protected].
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The housing market isn’t going back to “normal” anytime soon. In fact, it could take significantly longer than many of us thought. Rates are around 7.5%, median home prices hover near $400,000, but your salary is not keeping pace. Something needs to change: is it rates, prices, incomes, or a combination of all three?
I did the math and have an answer for how long it will actually take for the housing market to recover.
So first, what does a "normal" housing market actually mean? We’re going to look at two data sets: 1989-2026 and 2019 levels, the last year before pandemic-fueled inflation started to boil the housing market. Back in 2019, Americans spent only around 15% of their income on housing payments; today, it’s nearly 25%. So, how do we return to a market where homes are actually affordable?
I’ll walk through each scenario: wages rising significantly, mortgage rates falling, and home prices crashing, and then paint a picture of what happens if all of them (reasonably) move in the right direction.
If someone is convincing you the market is about to get much cheaper, or much more affordable, or that you should just wait until it’s easier to buy…good luck.
In This Episode We Cover
Exactly what needs to happen for housing affordability to return to “normal” levels
The three “levers” that control housing affordability, and which are likely to move
Why it could take years (or even decades) to get back to the average affordability level
Are we stuck in a new era of mega-expensive housing payments?
Why waiting to buy a home (or your next rental) could be a very long bet
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join BiggerPockets for FREE
Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter
Find Investor-Friendly Lenders
On The Market 461 - You’re Not Gonna Like What Happens to Mortgage Rates
Dave's BiggerPockets Profile
NAR Housing Affordability Index
Grab the Book, Real Estate by the Numbers
Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-469.
Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email [email protected].
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
A Fed official says what we’re all thinking: home prices must drop—and sellers seem to have gotten the message. Per a recent Redfin report, 44.7% of home sales included seller concessions such as price cuts, rate buydowns, covering closing costs, or even renovations, repairs, and expensive layout changes. So, if you’re a buyer, how do you get the most from your seller on the next deal?
We’re back with this week’s headlines! We’ve brought good news for buyers, scary news for sellers, and strange-smelling stories about multifamily investors. Seller desperation is peaking as concessions offer buyers the biggest opportunity in six years. Even the Fed is taking note, as one official warns about home affordability and why prices need to drop to make progress.
Now, what the heck is that black stuff behind the fridge? That’s the question multifamily investors are asking themselves as mold-based litigation ramps up and renters prepare to get paydays thanks to some severe spores. If you own a home in the Northwest, the South, or anywhere else that gets humid, here is what you should do to avoid a pricey repair.
In This Episode We Cover
The rise in seller concessions and how to unlock price cuts, lower mortgage rates, or covered closing costs
The $70K concession James is making to literally rearrange a floor plan to sell a house
A Fed official’s warning on home prices and why they may still be too high
The deals popping up and sitting on the market that could be solid rentals
A major mold problem: Why you should check your rental ASAP (before a lawyer gets involved)
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join BiggerPockets for FREE
Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter
Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area
Redfin: Nearly Half of Homebuyers Get Concessions From Sellers as Most Markets Tip in Buyers’ Favor
Realtor: Fed Official Sounds Warning on Housing as Affordability Hits 21-Year Low
Bisnow: Mold Is Growing Into Major Problem For Apartment Owners
Dave's BiggerPockets Profile
Henry's BiggerPockets Profile
James' BiggerPockets Profile
Kathy's BiggerPockets Profile
Grab The Book on Negotiating Real Estate
Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-468.
Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email [email protected].
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices








