Real Estate Jerky Daily

TITLE: Are New Homes Cheaper Than Existing Homes? | REJ Daily 661   DESCRIPTION: Ed Parcaut and Mike Kelly look at September new home sales and why a new build may now cost less than an existing home, plus what that means for homebuyers. They also cover Modesto listings, pending and closed sales, consumer confidence, ADP jobs, Case Shiller and FHFA home prices, foreclosure starts on newer loans, the FAIR Plan rate increase, where mortgage rates may go, and this week's Community Corner events.   CHAPTERS: 0:00 Intro with Ed Parcaut and Mike Kelly 0:29 Modesto listings, pending and closed sales 4:11 Consumer confidence and ADP jobs 5:16 New home sales for September 5:58 New homes vs existing home prices 6:41 Case Shiller and FHFA home prices 8:05 Foreclosure starts and newer loans 8:51 FAIR Plan rate increase and new filings 10:21 Where mortgage rates may go 11:26 Durable goods orders 12:48 Community Corner events 15:07 Wrap up   Michael Kelly, CA DRE #01072204, RE/MAX Executive   Edward R. Parcaut, NMLS #235384, CA DRE #01077454. Lending For Living Inc, Real estate broker, California Department of Real Estate, NMLS #855360, CA DRE #01907016. Equal Housing Opportunity. This is not a commitment to lend. All loans are subject to credit approval, underwriting guidelines and program availability. NMLS Consumer Access: www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org  

Ed Parcaut and Mike Kelly look at what is moving mortgage rates this week, from oil prices to AI company debt and the bond market, and what the Fed meeting may or may not mean for homebuyers. They also cover local Modesto listings, pending and closed sales, a new California insurance rate filing review, and a flying saucer house near Idyllwild. CHAPTERS: 0:00 Intro with Ed Parcaut and Mike Kelly 0:48 Modesto listings, pending and closed sales 1:34 National housing numbers and price cuts 3:02 Stocks, bonds and the 10-year Treasury 3:41 Why oil matters for mortgage rates 4:10 What to expect from the Fed this week 4:24 AI company debt and the bond market 5:33 This week's economic reports 6:13 California insurance rate filings go public 7:25 The flying saucer house near Idyllwild 12:04 Helping The Brave and Daily Muster 16:58 Wrap up Edward R. Parcaut, NMLS #235384, CA DRE #01077454. Lending For Living Inc, Real estate broker, California Department of Real Estate, NMLS #855360, CA DRE #01907016. Equal Housing Opportunity. This is not a commitment to lend. All loans are subject to credit approval, underwriting guidelines and program availability. NMLS Consumer Access: www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

Ed Parcaut and Mike Kelly talk about why the Stanislaus County median is still up from a year ago, and what 4.8 months of national supply really means for buyers. They also cover VA loan seller concessions, the FAIR Plan increase, Prop 1 and CalVet, and the new townhome law.

Ed Parcaut and Mike Kelly cover a leaked White House draft order aimed at mortgage costs, mortgage applications falling even as rates eased, C.A.R.'s 2027 California forecast and why buyers have leverage right now. In this episode: • Ed's new show, The Daily Muster: a 10-minute look at what happened on this day in history, starting Monday on YouTube and podcasts • Local check: Stanislaus County listings and pendings down from yesterday, with a few more closings (the MetroList screen shown on air) • Markets: bonds, oil and AI worries, and why rates have two engines pushing in opposite directions • The big story: a draft White House order titled "Decreasing Housing Costs for the American People" that would direct VA and USDA to lower rates and have Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac look for borrowers whose mortgage insurance can be canceled. The draft may change or never be issued (Scotsman Guide, Oct 20, 2026: https://www.scotsmanguide.com/news/trump-draft-order-takes-aim-at-mortgage-costs-ahead-of-midterms/) • Mortgage applications fell 5.3% for the week ending Oct 16. Purchase applications fell 7% and are 18% below a year ago, refinance applications fell 2% and are 59% below a year ago, and the refinance share rose to 39% (MBA, Oct 21, 2026: https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2026/10/21/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey) • C.A.R.'s 2027 forecast: the California median price is forecast to rise 1.4% to $894,400 in 2027 after a projected 0.8% rise to $882,200 this year, and sales are forecast up 3.7% to 277,900. Affordability stays at 20% (C.A.R., Oct 7, 2026: https://www.car.org/aboutus/mediacenter/newsreleases/2026releases/2027housingforecast). Prices aren't crashing, they're crawling • Why fixing up your home costs so much more than it used to, and what diesel has to do with it • With fewer buyers writing offers, the buyer who is out there now has leverage. Agents, be ready to negotiate No cheerleading. No doom. Just the truth, with a little seasoning. Watch live Mon to Fri on Facebook, LinkedIn and YouTube. More: www.edparcaut.com | @EdParcaut Rates: rate figures were read on air. The 7.41% figure is MBA's average contract rate for a 30-year fixed conforming loan for the week ending Oct 16, 2026 (MBA, Oct 21, 2026, link above). Ed's opinion, not financial advice. Permanent rate buydowns require paying discount points (1 point = 1% of the loan amount). Results depend on rates the day you lock. Not a commitment to lend. Edward R. Parcaut, NMLS #235384, CA DRE #01077454. Lending For Living Inc, Real estate broker, California Department of Real Estate, NMLS #855360, CA DRE #01907016. Equal Housing Opportunity. This is not a commitment to lend. All loans are subject to credit approval, underwriting guidelines and program availability. NMLS Consumer Access: www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

Ed Parcaut and Mike Kelly cover pending home sales dropping in every region with the West the worst, a housing starts miss, oil at a five-month high and a pirate ship house in Utah.   In this episode: • Local check: Stanislaus County listings, pendings and closings up from yesterday (the MLS screen shown on air) • Why compliance watches what we say about sellers helping buy down a rate, and why a disclosure makes it better • Markets: bonds caught a flight to safety on AI jitters, and the 10-year was lower near 5.09% (CNBC, Oct 20, 2026: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y) • Oil: Brent hit a five-month high (CNBC, Oct 20, 2026), with December Brent about $111.10 (WSJ, Oct 20, 2026) • AI debt worries and why a stock slide matters for housing: wealthier buyers paying cash don't worry about rates • Pending home sales fell 7.3% in September and 11.3% from a year ago, down in all four regions. The West was the worst, down 9.2% on the month and 15.0% on the year (NAR, Oct 20, 2026: https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/pending-home-sales-decreased-7-3-percent-in-september) • NAR's Lawrence Yun: "Market conditions weakened in September due to fast-rising mortgage rates." Mike's take: that also opens doors for buyers, with sellers doing what builders do • Housing starts: 1,221,000 at a yearly pace in September, down 5.2% from August. Single-family starts 859,000, down 4.6%. Building permits 1,400,000, down 0.2% (U.S. Census Bureau, Oct 20, 2026: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/current/index.html). Census says the monthly drop in starts is not statistically significant • Is this 2008 again? Ed and Mike on inventory then and now, and why "never" and "always" are false statements • Google's listing carousel and getting your listings in front of ChatGPT and Copilot through Bing Webmaster Tools • Extra jerky: a house shaped like a pirate ship in Levan, Utah, nowhere near an ocean. Would you walk the plank? • Community Corner on realestatejerky.com: UB40 at the Gallo Center, the El Concilio Job Fair, a junk journaling workshop in Lodi and the Brady House basement haunt in downtown Modesto   No cheerleading. No doom. Just the truth, with a little seasoning. Watch live Mon to Fri on Facebook, LinkedIn and YouTube. More: www.edparcaut.com | @EdParcaut   Rates: rate figures were read on air. Ed read rates "like 7.40" and the 10-year at 5.10, from his screen during the show. For reference, 7.40% is Freddie Mac's 30-year survey average from last week (PMMS, Oct 15, 2026: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms). Daily rate index: Mortgage News Daily, Oct 20, 2026, https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates. Ed's opinion, not financial advice.   Edward R. Parcaut, NMLS #235384, CA DRE #01077454. Lending For Living Inc, Real estate broker, California Department of Real Estate, NMLS #855360, CA DRE #01907016. Equal Housing Opportunity. This is not a commitment to lend. All loans are subject to credit approval, underwriting guidelines and program availability. NMLS Consumer Access: www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org