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Two-thirds of Israeli voters had cast ballots four hours before polls closed Tuesday, the highest turnout at that stage since 1973, according to Axios. Election officials ordered polling stations to accelerate voting after reports of long lines, saying anyone arriving by 10 p.m. local time would be allowed to cast a ballot. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seeks another term, with 61 seats needed for a parliamentary majority. This is Israel’s first election since the October 7th attacks in 2023.I’m not going to pretend that I’m an expert in the Knesset or Israeli coalitions, which will essentially decide who becomes prime minister. It does seem, at this hour, that Netanyahu will end his extraordinarily consequential reign at the helm of that nation — one that looked like it was over right before October 7th. I don’t know if the guy coming in will make anybody who didn’t like Netanyahu happier. The issues they seem to disagree on are more domestic issues, not what Americans who talk about Israel a lot particularly care about. He’s probably more aligned with Netanyahu on prosecuting the war in Gaza, at the very least. The question would be how far it extends into Iran and what victory against Iran would be defined as.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Still, if this is indeed the end for Bibi, it’s been a hell of a ride. I don’t know if anybody other than Ben-Gurion and Golda Meir would be more consequential leaders for that nation, but I’d leave that up to the Israeli scholars. We don’t know the outcome yet, but it does, at least right now, look like curtains for Netanyahu.Meanwhile, President Trump has changed the list of Canadian products subject to an additional 50% tariff, with revisions taking effect Friday, October 30th. A proclamation on the 23rd removes some products from duty and adds others. Republican Susan Collins says nine exempted categories will help Maine’s blueberry, potato, apple and seaweed industries. Those categories include packaging materials, refrigeration equipment and agricultural machinery. The exemptions apply to the additional duty imposed over Canada’s treatment of American vehicles. Separate tariffs remain in place.There’s also late-breaking reporting that negotiations are underway to try to avert some of the steel tariffs between the two countries. I’ve thought this would be brought to a brink and then eventually resolved. I tend to still think that’s the case, but we’re getting a little late in the innings to assume so.Finally, Marco Rubio said street protests wouldn’t produce democracy in Venezuela following opposition leader María Corina Machado’s return to Caracas. Machado is demanding elections in 2027, while U.S. officials want changes to the Supreme Court and Electoral Council, along with progress on debt, before a vote. Rubio said the current authorities were meeting agreed deadlines but didn’t publicly specify an election date, warning against derailing the process.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:02:18 - Midterm Map Madness, Part One00:47:52 - Update00:48:26 - Israel’s Elections00:51:16 - Canadian Tariffs00:52:36 - Venezuela00:55:00 - Midterm Map Madness, Part Two01:39:37 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Mike Rogers is trying to tie Abdul El-Sayed to the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, Hezbollah and other radical Islamic organizations. El-Sayed isn’t known to be a Muslim Brotherhood member, but unearthed tweets from his sister suggest their mother helped organize or work with the group. Other parts of the attack rely on El-Sayed’s relationship with organizations like CAIR and the allegations Republicans have made against them.Politically, the strategy makes sense. Rogers needs to split Black voters in Detroit and Jewish voters in the suburbs away from the Democratic coalition. He’s trying to make El-Sayed “more Arab” and exploit tensions inside that coalition. El-Sayed clearly understands the reputation problem — he’s already running ads with his white grandparents to reassure voters. But Michigan is reportedly a Democrat-plus-11 environment, and Republicans haven’t won a Senate race there in many years.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Compare that with the attack Vivek Ramaswamy is running against Amy Acton in Ohio. His ad effectively asks voters to believe Acton’s estranged mother over her and to believe that a 12-year-old lied about being sexually assaulted. That’s supposed to prove Acton has always been a liar. It’s a deeply ugly message without the same kind of political logic behind it.Trump endorsed the ad on Truth Social, and JD Vance defended it by saying the campaign wouldn’t have run it unless it thought the ad would work. That’s like farting and then defending the smell as proof of success. Vance went even further, trying to sell the gigantic crap on the rug as a feature of the Feng Shui.Ramaswamy is running a bad campaign, and I don’t think he’s going to become governor of Ohio. John Husted is now in peril too, even after Sherrod Brown’s last campaign demonstrated that Ohio is a Republican state. The environment matters, but candidates can still make terrible decisions.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:03:45 - Mike Rogers vs. Vivek Strategies00:13:30 - Interview with Abby Turner00:42:11 - Update00:44:27 - DCCC00:45:52 - Susie Wiles00:49:44 - Canada Tariffs00:50:58 - Interview with Ed Tarnowski01:20:11 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

I drove from Austin to Waco along I-35, one of the most heavily traveled corridors in Texas, and James Talarico is dominating the billboard game. I don’t love the billboards themselves because the text is too small to read safely from a distance, but the themes are smart and clear: Talarico will protect healthcare, and Talarico will lower costs. One is the issue of the day — affordability — and the other is an issue Democrats are generally trusted on.Ken Paxton was almost nonexistent. The biggest Republican billboard I saw looked like something a random person had purchased: “Democrats now support communism, and Republicans don’t.” That belongs more on your uncle’s Facebook page than a gigantic roadside billboard. I don’t know how much billboards matter, but when these campaigns and their super PACs are spending roughly half a billion dollars, it’s worth noting that one side is buying more of them.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.The obvious Republican voters I met in Waco knew Paxton, had been in rooms with him, and didn’t like him. They were Cornyn voters and wished they could vote for Cornyn again. But they’re still voting for Paxton because they view Talarico as that odious. Outside Austin, people see the city as a problem and Talarico as a product of that problem. I’ve officially concluded that Paxton is running a bad campaign and deserves to lose. Based solely on his campaign, Talarico should become the next senator from Texas. I still don’t think he will.Now for my semiannual warning: Looking at early-voting trends is bad, and only bad people do it. They don’t reliably predict final results, and partisans use them to create engagement or scare people into voting. That said, Democrats ran through the brick wall on opening day. In North Carolina, Democrats cast roughly 327,000 votes to Republicans’ 151,000. Georgia’s opening-day turnout was up 40 percent from 2022. Iowa Republicans held the majority of returned ballots, while Texas saw nearly record first-day voting. These are good signs for Democrats, but we don’t know whether they represent a continuing freight train or enthusiastic voters casting their ballots early and leaving the rest of the electorate to revert to normal patterns.The dirty ads are also arriving. An anti-Amy Acton video raised her estrangement from her mother, allowing Acton to explain that her mother sided with a man Acton says molested her as a child. That seems like an extraordinary gift to Acton. In Maine, an ad against Troy Jackson includes the lyric, “If he’ll F his own family, he’ll F yours too.” In Texas, an ad attacks Brandon Herrera — the “AK Guy” — for demonstrating weapons connected to high-profile crimes, including the Uvalde shooting in the district he wants to represent. This is playoff-caliber filth.Then there’s the apparent sequel to the unsolicited Texas text messages promoting transgender healthcare. A new flyer presents itself as trans advocacy, directs minors toward legal organizations and out-of-state care information, and advertises events around Texas. I have no idea whether any of it is authentic. But in 2024, we saw one organization run opposing messages on Israel to shake up a race, and that effort was eventually traced to Elon Musk. This is only an unqualified guess — a feeling-the-Force thing — but I suspect America PAC, or a group funded by it, may be behind these messages.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:02:59 - Waco00:09:22 - Early Election Results00:13:40 - Crazy Midterm Ads00:22:57 - Andrew Heaton on Libertarians00:58:48 - Update00:59:44 - Ukraine01:03:09 - Republicans’ Red Wall Defense01:06:45 - Supreme Court and Distilling01:07:58 - Laurence Leamer on JFK’s Mistresses01:32:34 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Former Texas House Speaker Dade Phelan recently said, “We’re still running transgender ads, and it’s just not resonating.” Republicans are trying to recreate the most iconic attack of 2024 — Kamala Harris is for they/them, Donald Trump is for you — by targeting James Talarico’s old progressive positions. But if the ads aren’t moving the polls and voters would rather discuss gas prices or inflation, what good are they? Maybe somebody decided to take the left-hand path and raise the issue’s salience another way.Texans have begun receiving messages that say, “Questions about gender-affirming care in Texas? Start here. You can get the care you need,” followed by a link to the Transgender Education Network of Texas. That sounds like something a transgender advocacy organization might send. The problem is that TENT says it didn’t write, authorize, approve, or distribute the messages. The organization says it has received hate and threats, and it has sent cease-and-desist notices to two messaging companies while demanding to know who hired them. Republican State Representative Jeff Leach has asked Attorney General Ken Paxton to investigate.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.It seems pretty clear what somebody is trying to accomplish. Paxton needs every possible Republican to come home, hold their nose, and vote for him because the issues at stake are supposedly bigger than their dislike of Ken Paxton. I don’t know whether it’ll work, and we don’t yet know who paid for it, but this trick is dirty as hell. Trump is already preparing an explanation for a Paxton loss, naming John Cornyn and Karl Rove as the people he’ll blame. Meanwhile, Talarico just gave an extended television performance without any of the fogginess his critics had insinuated. He aced it 11 out of 10.A Reuters survey also asked 26 Senate campaigns whether they would accept November’s results unconditionally. Fourteen said yes: nine Democrats, one independent, and four Republicans. Both major candidates in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and New Hampshire agreed. Neither Talarico nor Paxton responded in Texas. This used to be simple. An agreed-upon arbiter called the race, the candidates spoke, and somebody conceded. Now we have little trust in the system and even less interest in rebuilding it. From Trump to Stacey Abrams and everybody in between, candidates who refuse to believe they lost should be shamed. You lost. You’re a loser. Run again and maybe you’ll become a winner.The Justice Department has demanded that California segregate ballots belonging to people federal officials suspect aren’t citizens. California Secretary of State Shirley Weber says her office received no list and was given 48 hours to investigate. Los Angeles election officials received a password-protected thumb drive but hadn’t accessed it because of security protocols, and the Justice Department didn’t say how many people were involved. California disputes the demand’s legal basis and says being flagged doesn’t prove someone is ineligible or voted illegally. This connects directly to the collapse in trust: Trump’s side assumes California permits rampant illegal voting, while liberals have no incentive to treat anything from his administration seriously.Finally, Social Security benefits will rise 3.6 percent in 2027, adding an average of $75 per month to retirement benefits. Nearly 72 million beneficiaries will receive the increase beginning in January, while higher payments for roughly 7.3 million Supplemental Security Income recipients begin December 31. The adjustment is calculated under federal law using an inflation index for urban wage earners and clerical workers. So if you’re looking for good news from inflation, at least Social Security recipients are getting more money.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:04:19 - Texas Dirty Trick00:10:28 - Interview with Karol Markowicz00:51:36 - Update00:54:10 - Accepting Election Results00:55:48 - California Ballots00:57:37 - Social Security00:58:49 - Interview with Katie Harbath01:42:29 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

A race that should’ve barely garnered any attention outside its home state is turning into one of the hottest of the midterms, as Republican Senator Roger Marshall is in the fight of his life against Democrat Adam Hamilton. Six months ago, Democratic hopes for the Senate were centered on Maine, Ohio, and Michigan, maybe even Florida at the outer edges. Nobody was talking about Kansas. Now Emerson has Hamilton ahead 45–43, the New York Times/Siena poll has the race tied at 45, and YouGov has Hamilton leading 48–45. These are consistent, margin-of-error leads for a Democrat.Marshall is a throwback religious conservative from the pre-Trump era who’s plugged himself into the MAGA universe through faith-and-family politics. He has the votes you’d expect, including a controversial one involving January 6. Hamilton is a centrist Democrat who founded his own church in 1990 with four people in a borrowed space. He’s using that religious background and his charisma as a leader of men to say, “I’m not asking you to vote for a Democrat. I’m asking you to vote for common sense.”Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Hamilton wants congressional approval for tariffs, more agricultural export promotion, and year-round guest-worker visas. Those positions push directly against Trump’s tariffs and hard-line immigration policies. Marshall, meanwhile, has to defend Trump during what’s being called “Farmageddon.” Diesel prices can only stay this high for so long. Restrictions on selling crops can only remain this punitive before farmers go crazy.Marshall’s medical career has also become a liability. An investigation found that he sued more than 700 patients over unpaid medical debt, and court records showed 81 arrests after people missed court appearances connected to those cases. His side says the collections were necessary to sustain medical care and that nobody was criminally convicted simply for being unable to pay. But Hamilton has an effective ad featuring a woman who says she was arrested while eight months pregnant after missing a payment. “I’m a doctor” is usually a good political pitch. Marshall found a way to make it a negative.This isn’t simply the national environment. Republicans face similar problems with farmers, diesel, and tariffs in Iowa, but Ashley Hinson is still leading her Democratic opponent and running ahead of the Republican gubernatorial candidate. Kansas is the combination of a bad environment and an incumbent who’s never been tested suddenly finding himself in the race of his life. The cavalry is arriving: Marshall has hired Chris Grant of Big Dog Strategies, and the Senate Leadership Fund is bringing in nearly $8.2 million, possibly redirected from Georgia and North Carolina. My gut says Kansas is much closer than it should be but doesn’t tip. Raw political gravity and the Republican registration advantage probably carry Marshall through. Maybe.The broader Republican strategy is now triage. Two Republican super PACs are withdrawing support from Tom Kean Jr. and Mariannette Miller-Meeks, leaving both incumbents without the air cover they expected. Republicans aren’t trying to flip Democratic seats anymore; they’re defending their own and attempting to minimize the losses. Trump is even heading to Wasilla to campaign for Alaska Senator Dan Sullivan against Mary Peltola. Second-term presidents aren’t usually eager to do a full-court press, let alone fly to Alaska. Trump deserves credit for doing the work, but the fact that he’s campaigning in red states tells you where Republican priorities are. They’re no longer on offense.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:02:45 - James Talarico00:13:09 - Kimberly Guilfoyle00:14:24 - Kansas Senate Race00:25:30 - Update00:26:22 - Republican Super PACs00:27:25 - Trump Heads to Alaska00:29:58 - DOGE00:31:02 - Interview with Ryan McBeth This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe